AL Central predictions 2026: Are the Guardians the team to beat in the division?

Updated: Feb. 13, 2026, 1:50 p.m.|Published: Feb. 12, 2026, 5:36 p.m.

By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Guardians’ pitchers and catchers went through their first official workout of spring training Thursday at their facility in Goodyear, Arizona.

Position players are scheduled to report Sunday — although many of them are already in camp — with the first full-squad workout scheduled for Tuesday.

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All of which means it’s time to predict how the five teams in the AL Central will do this season based on what they’ve done to improve or regress over the winter.

The teams will be ranked from fifth place to first place.

5. White Sox

Last year: 60-102, fifth place

Manager: Will Venable, second year.

PECOTA, FanGraphs predictions for 2026: Fifth at 69-93 and fifth at 67.5-94.5.

One-on-one: Guardians went 11-2 vs. White Sox last year.

The skinny: The White Sox have averaged 108 losses per season over the last three years, but they just may break that pattern this year. They’ve added Erick Fedde, Seranthony Dominguez and Anthony Kay to the pitching staff. They signed Japanese first baseman Munetaka Murakami to a two-year, $34 million deal and outfielder Austin Hays to a one-year, $6 million deal after trading Luis Robert Jr., another outfielder, and his $20 million salary to the Mets.

Fun fact: The White Sox won the MLB draft lottery at the winter meetings, gaining the first overall pick this year.

4. Twins

Last year: 70-92, fourth place.

Manager: Derek Shelton, first year.

PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: Third at 78.8-83.2 and third at 79.7-83.3.

One-on-one: Guardians went 9-4 vs. the Twins last year.

The skinny: It’s hard to get a handle on what the Twins are doing. At the deadline last year, they traded 10 players and it looked like they were headed for a big rebuild. However, Derek Falvey, team president and the man leading the rebuild, left the organization at the end of January. While Falvey was leaning into a rebuild, Tom Pohlad, the team’s control person, felt the team could contend in 2026. The Twins have added free agents in first baseman Josh Bell, catcher Victor Caratini and reliever Taylor Rogers. They also acquired lefty Anthony Banda from the Dodgers.

Fun fact: Shelton, former Cleveland hitting coach, returns to manage the Twins after five seasons managing the Pirates. Before taking the Pirates job, he was the Twins bench coach.

3. Royals

Last year: 82-80, third.

Manager: Matt Quatraro, fourth season.

PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: First at 85.5-76.5 and second at 81-81.

One-on-one: Guardians went 8-5 against the Royals last year.

The skinny: The Royals just might win the AL Central if their rotation of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic and Michael Wacha can avoid last year’s injuries and their offense improves. Their offensive production from the outfield was poor last year so they sent valuable lefty Angel Zerpa to the Brewers for outfielder Isaac Collins and right-hander Nick Means. Then they signed Lane Thomas, who spent two injury-filled years with the Guardians. If power-hitting Jac Caglianone can recover from his shaky big-league debut last year that would be an added boost. The Royals have depth in the pen, especially at the back end with closer Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg, which should ease the pain of losing Zerpa.

Fun fact: Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., starting his fifth season, has led the big leagues in hits for the last two years with 211 in 2024 and 184 in 2025.

2. Guardians

Last year: 88-74, first.

Manager: Stephen Vogt, third season.

PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: Fourth at 75.3-86.7 and fourth at 75.6-86.4.

One-on-one: Guardians went 36-16 vs. the AL Central last year.

The skinny: Preseason projections are not treating the defending AL Central champs kindly, mostly because they did so little this winter to help one of last year’s worst offenses in baseball. But have they really taken a 13-game tumble from 88 to 75 victories as PECOTA and FanGraphs project? The only counter the front office has is if untested players such as Chase DeLauter, George Valera, CJ Kayfus and others can lend a hand to Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan to awaken this offense. If not, it won’t matter how many arms the Guardians added to the bullpen this winter — and it was a lot — because they’re going to struggle. No doubt the rotation is strong, but a team has to score to win, even one that rallied from a 15-1/2 game deficit last year.

Fun fact: Last year the Guardians went 50-33 in games decided by two or fewer runs.

1. Tigers
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Last year: 87-75, second.

Manager: A.J. Hinch, sixth season.

PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: Second at 83.1-78.9 and first at 85.7-76.3

One-on-one: The Guardians went 8-5 against the Tigers last year.

The skinny: After a nine-year drought, the Tigers have gone to the postseason for the last two seasons. It feels like they’re determined to make it three straight based on what they did this offseason. Yes, Tarik Skubal won a historic $32 million arbitration contract for 2026, but that didn’t stop Detroit from signing lefty Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million deal and bringing home Justin Verlander on a one-year, $13 million deal. It gives Hinch a rotation of Skubal, the two-time Cy Young winner, Valdez, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize and Verlander. It also makes up for the loss of Reese Olson, who will miss the season with right shoulder surgery. In the bullpen they added closer Kenley Jansen, while second baseman Gleyber Torres decided to stay in the Motor City by accepting the qualifying offer.

Fun fact: The Guardians and Tigers played each other 16 times last season, including the three-game wild card series. Ten of the 16 games were decided by three or fewer runs.

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[ Should be a close finish for second place in this division. Will a second place finish be good enough for post season play. Don't think so. ]

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Why Failing to Extend Steven Kwan Would Be a Major Mistake for Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians would put themselves further down the totem poll of major league talent if they moved on from Steven Kwan without an answer in place.

Cade Cracas

2 hours ago

It's that time of year.

The Cleveland Guardians are just a few weeks away from the start of the 2026 MLB season, and with that, the organization released its promotional schedule.

While many teams around the league received praise for theirs, the Guardians instead were met with one major question: Where's Steven Kwan? He was let out of all promotional nights, not being showcased in memorabilia, bobble heads or jerseys.

The 28-year-old has been involved in trade rumors and contract extension discussions for a little over a year now, with no end to them in sight.

But if the front office isn't able to lock down the two-time All-Star and four-time Golden Glover, it would be a major mistake. They have the cap space, they have the room on the roster, it's all about making it happen now.

Following the promotional schedule release, Guardians sideline reporter Andre Knott spoke on the situation.

"Read between the lines... I think that's being careful of something happening," Knott said. "Go back last year, did you notice there were no Josh Naylor giveaways... You don't want to give a giveaway of someone you may not have."

While those comments from someone close to the organization would obviously signal that something is going to happen, Knott then calmed the storm a bit.

"I don't think they want to get rid of him, but also, you know, the Guards are one team that's not gonna overpay for him either," he said.

In 2025, Kwan slashed .272/.330/.374 for an OPS of .705, knocking 29 doubles and 11 home runs for a career-high 56 RBIs. He also put up some of the league's best fielding numbers, with 308 putouts, 13 assists and a 97.6% fielding mark.

The Issue Moving Forward

The decision to either trade Kwan or let him walk at the end of the season presents a few unique scenarios.

The first:

a trade. This would ultimately be the best option for Cleveland, especially if they are seriously not considering signing him long-term. With how high his value is, at least for his defensive efforts, the team could get a good chunk of prospects and a short-term replacement in return. This would obviously signal, though, that the Guardians believe they have enough talent in the minors to eventually replace his role.

The second:

letting him walk. This would be the worst possible option. If the Guardians played him for the next one to two campaigns, allowing him to continue thriving and carving out his role in left field, and then he just left, it would be one of the most disappointing decisions the organization has ever made. Kwan's an elite talent, and if you are just going to let him leave, you may as well get something back in return.

Currently, he's under control with the team through the 2027 campaign, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent in 2028. By that time, he will be entering his 30's.

The front office may be unwilling to extend him into that age range, mainly due to how many promising prospects they have right now. At the end of last year, they platooned Chase DeLauter, George Valera, Petey Halpin and CJ Kayfus, all players who could hypothetically play in the outfield moving forward. Kayfus is more of a first baseman than anything, but he did play 29 games in right field in 2025.

If Cleveland believes in them, and others still itching to make their debut, a Kwan extension might not be in the team's best interest.

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Alarming Details Revealed About Emmanuel Clase Rigging Pitches in MLB Playoffs

Clase is also accused of using coded language to discuss pitch-rigging.

Matthew Pisani

1 hour ago

More information regarding Emmanuel Clase and his pitch-rigging investigation has come to light. According to Zack Neisel and Mike Vorkunov, Clase rigged pitches back in the 2024 playoffs.

The pitch-rigging Clase allegedly underwent has to do with the first pitch of his appearance. On sportsbooks, the most common live, in-game bets people can make are pitch results and pitch speeds. If you look at the pitches thrown in that Gam 1 of the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers, it is clear which one was the alleged rigged pitch.

Like almost all of the alleged rigged pitches Clase threw, it was the very first one of the inning. In the top of the 9th inning in Game 1 of the ALDS, the first pitch Clase threw was 93 MPH and fell short of the plate by about 10-15 feet. That pitch looks oddly similar to all of the other ‘rigged pitches’ Clase threw in this investigation. A slow pitch that was nowhere near the zone.

After that first pitch, Clase returned to his normal form. He got a strikeout on that first batter. The next batter rolled one over to second base for the easy out. The final batter flared a fly ball to left field for the easy final out of the game.

Clase was dominant in that inning. Except for that first pitch, which was extremely ugly and extremely short of the plate. It falls in line with all the other videos out there of him allegedly rigging pitches. It is always the first pitch, and it is always well short of the plate.

Thankfully for the Guardians, the rigged pitch did not play a factor in the game, and the Guardians were able to maintain their 7-0 lead en route to a Game One victory.

Rigging pitches in a playoff game is a new level for players. Rigging pitches in a regular-season game, of which there are 162 of them, is much less significant than in a five-game ALDS series against a division rival. Every pitch counts in the postseason, and giving one away for free to the opposition is very risky business.

The fact that Clase was able to get away with a pitch like this for a year and a half amidst the investigation is impressive, but the investigation did what it was supposed to do, and that is find any and all instances where a rigged pitch may have occurred.


"THROW A ROCK AT THE FIRST ROOSTER IN TODAY'S FIGHT"






In addition to the postseason pitch-rigging, Meisel mentions that code phrases were used ahead of pitch-rigging being done by Clase. “Throw a rock at the first rooster in today’s fight” was a message Clase received before a May 2025 game against the Reds. He responded with, “Yes, of course, that’s an easy toss to that rooster,” following up saying he will throw it “low.”

Clase used words like rooster and chicken regularly to describe his pitch-rigging opportunities, according to new text messages revealed in Friday’s indictment.

This postseason pitch is now one of 15 times already identified as potential rigged pitches from 2023 to 2025, all in an effort to help sports gamblers win prop bets on him. Federal authorities also mention that there were at least three occasions in which Clase planned on rigging pitches, but never appeared in the game.

The co-conspirators made at least $450,000 with kickbacks to Clase, but Clase still denies all allegations and claims his innocence.

The first “rooster” came in 2023, when a bettor asked, “And the rooster the same?” Clase replied, “Yes, the same rooster.” That night, multiple bettors won about $33,000 wagering that Clase’s first pitch would be slower than 94.5 mph.

In September of 2023, Clase texted a bettor, “chicken number 3, after I kill the first 2, play the 3…And if I can’t kill it, don’t play it. I have to kill the first two.” Clase never did enter that game, therefore not being able to throw a fixed pitch to batter number three in that inning.

This is an investigation that gets messier and murkier by the day. More pitches are found, and the allegations continue to grow. One thing is clear: Clase will likely never step foot on an MLB mound again, and this allegation, whether it be true or false, will follow him his entire life.

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These articles are just getting terrible. The one mentions that the Guardians have cap space to sign Kwan. What the hell is cap space ?

One article says that the Guardians have picked up bad apples when they are desperate . Who said they are desperate ?

MLB Network's reliever rankings shows how blessed Guardians fans are with Cade Smith

We're lucky.

By Henry Palattella

5 hours ago

Last season, the long-term outlook of the Guardians’ bullpen changed overnight thanks to Emmanuel Clase being placed on paid leave as a part of a pitch rigging scheme that has likely resulted in him throwing his final pitch with the Guardians.

For most teams, losing a Hall of Fame caliber reliever would be a death blow to their bullpen. But it was barely a blip for the Guardians thanks to Cade Smith, who dominated after taking over the closer role in the second half of the season.

Now Smith is entering spring training as the Guardians’ clear No. 1 option for the ninth inning and also ranks as one of the best relievers in baseball.

We got even more reinforcement of that thinking earlier this week when MLB Network released its list of the top 10 relievers in baseball, where he came in as the No. 4 reliever on the list behind Edwin Díaz, Mason Miller and Aroldis Chapman.

Guardians’ Cade Smith ranks as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball

While Smith’s counting stats took a bit of a hit last season compared to his fantastic rookie season in 2024, he was arguably even more valuable to the Guardians in 2025.

Last season Smith finished the year with a 2.93 ERA in 73 2/3 innings while striking out nearly 35% of the hitters he faced.

After opening the season as the Guardians’ eighth inning man, he got his first taste of being a closer during a two-week stretch in April when Clase ran into some uncharacteristic struggles. He shifted back to a setup role after that, but was thrust into a full-time closer role at the end of July when Clase was placed on paid leave.

Although he blew his first save opportunity in that time, he posted a 2.51 ERA in 28 2/3 innings in his final 29 appearances of the season before throwing 3 1/3 scoreless innings in the postseason.

Smith’s dominance is even more impressive when you consider his approach. While he technically throws three pitches, he threw his fastball 70% of the time last year. Batters know what’s coming and still can’t hit it, which is the mark of any dominant reliever.

Smith finished last season in the 98th percentile in expected ERA (2.51) along with being in the 97th percentile in strikeout rate (34.7%) and barrel rate (4%). The best relievers in baseball are the ones who are able to generate swing-and-miss, and Smith’s ability to do so is unparalleled.

In fact, you could argue that’s better than the three pitchers ranked ahead of him. Miller has a 102 mile per hour fastball and cost the Padres one of the top prospects in baseball at the trade deadline, but he struggled in the first half last year and seems to always be flirting with the idea of going back to being a starting pitcher.

Díaz and Chapman are clearly two of the top relief options in baseball, but they’re both deep into their careers and have dealt with injuries in their career. Meanwhile Smith is entering his third MLB season, is extremely durable and is due for a long-term extension.

Smith’s one of baseball’s best, and is a tangible example of the Guardians’ bullpen dominance over the past couple seasons.

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No splash, all substance: Here’s the Guardians’ answer to big-spending MLB teams

The Cleveland Guardians continue to find success despite their status as a small-market team. So, how do they do it?

By Joey Mistretta

Feb 15, 2026 at 12:39 PM ET

SCOTTSDALE, AZ — The Cleveland Guardians are one of baseball's most fascinating teams. In similar fashion to many small-market ball clubs in the MLB world, Cleveland often sits back and watches the heavy-spenders go head-to-head in free agency. Plenty of analysts and prediction-makers consistently count the Guardians out in spring training. And then, like clockwork, the Guards often end up in the postseason nonetheless. So, how do the Guardians keep winning without spending big in MLB free agency?

Guardians general manager Mike Chernoff does not have as much financial room to work with as compared to big-market teams' GMs. He's done a phenomenal job, however. Chernoff does not take all of the credit, though

During Spring Training Media Day in Arizona, Chernoff explained the Guardians' approach to building a contender.

“In today's economic system in Major League Baseball, we can't compete in free agency. So, we have to do things very differently,” Chernoff told ClutchPoints. “And I understand that in an offseason, we may not be the team that wins an offseason. But our scouts, and our analysts, and our coaches, are second to none. And that group works so hard to make sure that the guys are just consistently improving, and that's what it comes down to.

“We have to win with our own players. We know who we are. We've put all of our effort in developing those guys, and we've been, you know, really fortunate that we, you know, won, whatever, six division titles in the past, whatever, decade or something like that. Postseason seven out of 10 years. Yeah, but we know we have to do it very differently.”

The Cleveland Pitching Factory?

Another thing the Guardians do well? Develop starting pitching. There's a reason they've been called the “Cleveland Pitching Factory” in the past.

“To me, it's a combination of all of the factors,” Chernoff said of the Guardians' pitching development. “I think our group, our pitching group, is so collaborative. And it has to be a joint effort. You have to be acquiring players that you feel like you can develop and have that upside. I think our scouts and our analysts do a great job of helping to do that.

“But that transition is seamless, you know, our coaching group is very involved in the acquisition process… As soon as a guy gets here, we know that player inside and out, and we meet them where they are. We hit the ground running. We have a great group of coaches that finds a way to get the best out of players.”

Guardians don't pay attention to outside noise

As mentioned, the Guardians are not always included among the top contenders in preseason predictions. One may imagine that Cleveland uses that as motivation. Manager Stephen Vogt explained that the ball club simply attempts to tune out the outside noise, however.

“I don't know if it puts a chip on our shoulder. We try really hard not to pay attention to that,” Vogt told ClutchPoints. “We focus on us. We know that we have an objective, that's to go out every night and win. Chris (Antonetti, Cleveland's president of baseball operations), Mike, they've built this organization to win… Obviously taking over for somebody like Tito (Terry Francona), you just pick up where they left off.

“You just try to get better every day. Our group does such a great job… We're worried about us. We're not worried about anything outside of us. I'm thankful that our players are like that.”

The Detroit Tigers had a big offseason. The Kansas City Royals have steadily improved. Many of the experts are already taking those teams over the Guardians in the American League Central.

Will history repeat itself once again? Only time will tell, but it would not be surprising to see Cleveland playing meaningful baseball in October once again in 2026.

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Stephen Vogt on Guardians’ spring-training roster battles: What to know for 2026

Updated: Feb. 14, 2026, 6:12 p.m.|Published: Feb. 14, 2026, 5:47 p.m.

By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Most Guardians have been in camp for a while, but the pace of spring training will officially start to quicken Tuesday for the first full-squad workout at the team’s year-round facility in Goodyear, Ariz.

Here are seven quick hitters from manager Stephen Vogt’s press conferences on Friday and Saturday regarding players and their roles for the 2026 season.

1. Outfielder George Valera made his big-league debut last year after being designated for assignment in November 2024, only to be re-signed to a minor-league deal by Cleveland.

Vogt: “The first time you get to the 40-man roster with your original organization, get taken off it, and then another team takes a chance on you, you sometimes get that renewed freshness. George is getting his second chance with us ... and that doesn’t happen very often. He can manage an at-bat, he has power and he’s a good, good hitter. We’re excited to see him healthy.”

2. Rule 5 pick right-hander Peyton Pallette, who was selected from the White Sox in December.

Vogt: “We told Peyton, ‘Go show us what you can do. You’re not going to make the team on Feb. 13 or Feb. 14. Just dive in. Be stubborn with who you are, but just dive in with our coaches and see how we can grow together over the next six to seven weeks.’”

If Guardians don’t keep Pallette on the 26-man roster, they must offer him back to Chicago.

3. Left-hander Logan Allen, who will be pitching for Panama in the World Baseball Classic.

Vogt: “We’re going to try and build him up as close as possible to 60 pitches so he can go and represent Panama at a full capacity. He started his progression before he got to camp to try and build up.”

Allen and Panama open the WBC on March 6 against Cuba in Puerto Rico.

4. Utility player David Fry, who was limited to pinch-hitting and DH last year as he recovered from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.

Vogt: “I don’t know if David is an option at third base. Coming off his surgery we want to keep it as simple as possible. I imagine he will catch the majority of spring training, and we’ll get him some first-base reps at the end of camp. I don’t know if it’s fair to him to add him in at third base or the outfield.”

5. Outfielder Chase DeLauter, whose career has been stalled by several injuries.

Vogt: “In our meeting, we told Chase we’re going to build you up appropriately for the season. We want you to continue to stay dialed into your routines to keep yourself in the best position to sustain seven months of baseball. Chase has had some really rough injury luck. For him, it’s just be a healthy baseball player. We want to provide him with every resource to help him.”

6. The starting rotation (Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo, Allen and Parker Messick):

Vogt: “It’s going to be a really hard decision. We had six starters down the stretch last year, and we’re going to open this season with five. There is going to be a real competition and they’re all excited about it. All six of them, plus our depth starters, are ready for it.”

7. First baseman Kyle Manzardo:

Vogt: “His swing is looking great. The ball is jumping off his bat. Even his miss-hits off the machines or live BP, the ball is jumping. We’re really proud of Kyle. He transformed his body. It’s fun to watch.”

Finally

All Guardians players are in camp except Jose Ramirez. He’s expected to report on time Sunday and be ready for Tuesday’s workout.

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After past injuries, Valera relishing normal start to spring

February 14th, 2026

Tim Stebbins

GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- George Valera stood in the batter’s box at Field 3 of the Guardians’ player development complex on Saturday, facing Adam Tulloch in a live batting practice session. Cleveland’s first full-squad workout is on Tuesday, but Valera is among the crowd of players already in camp.

Valera would have it no other way. When he arrived at Spring Training last year, he had just begun walking without a limp, following surgery for a torn patellar tendon in his right knee the previous September. He was a non-roster invitee, but spent the entirety of camp rehabbing.

This year, Valera is unrestricted physically as Spring Training begins. And after the 25-year-old outfielder was able to enjoy a normal offseason, he finds himself well in the mix for a spot on the Guardians’ Opening Day roster.

“I'm pretty happy, man,” Valera said. “[It feels] pretty normal, honestly, just being a part of all the practice and the conversations with the guys and the team this year. I don't have to be in the training room so much. It’s a blessing.”

It’s also a major source of excitement for the Guardians as they fast approach their Cactus League opener next Saturday.

Valera made a good impression down the stretch last season, following his MLB debut on Sept. 1. He slashed .220/.333/.415 with two homers, five RBIs and seven walks with 13 strikeouts over 16 regular-season games. In Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series against the Tigers, his solo homer opened the scoring in Cleveland’s 6-1 win.

That brief display of Valera’s potential is something fans and the Guardians have long waited to see in the Majors. Valera was Cleveland’s No. 1 prospect in 2022, per MLB Pipeline. Injuries, of course, impacted his timeline. Valera played 79 games in ‘23, when he suffered a right wrist injury during Spring Training. He played 90 in ‘24, when he strained his left hamstring during camp.

“I'm excited. I have not seen George Valera play a Spring Training game yet,” manager Stephen Vogt said. “Going into Year 3, seeing him healthy, hearing his confidence level, and just having a full offseason to be able to be an active player rather than rehabbing, I think we're all excited to watch what George can do.”

Certainly if we get the chance to see it over a full season. Valera is among a slew of outfielders in the mix for the Guardians’ Opening Day roster this spring, and Cleveland gained a fourth (and extra) Minor League option on him this winter, due to his injury history.

But Valera has upside as a onetime top prospect, and last year was just an initial taste of what he can do. The Guardians’ belief in him was evident; Valera was Cleveland’s No. 2 hitter down the stretch and in the postseason.

“He can manage an at-bat,” Vogt said. “He makes great swing decisions. He's got power. He's just a good, good hitter. Watching him play the outfield in a limited capacity and how well he played the outfield in a limited capacity, I think we're all really, really pumped to see him playing outfield healthy.”

Valera’s offseason was valuable both on and off the field. He spent a few weeks in the Dominican Republic, in his first visit home since before his knee surgery. After that procedure, it was hard for him to take a long flight where his knee would remain bent for an extended time.

“It was fire. I loved it. Home is the best, bro,” Valera said. “Being able to work out every day, good weather every day. Just going to the beach, hanging out with my mom [Nina] and my dad [Danilo] all the time, seeing all my cousins every time, my uncles and aunts every time.

“It’s a blessing because I have a lot of family that just can't come over here, so I hadn’t seen them for a long time. Just going back home and seeing my friends too was special.”

This could be a special season for Valera. He obviously must stay healthy, and he even noted how that would help constitute a successful season on an individual level. If he can stay on the field, we know the rest may come, given his talent.

Last season gave Valera an idea of what to expect in the Majors. But there is still work for him and the Guardians to do.

“It was a dream,” Valera said. “It was sweet. We didn't finish it, though. So we’ve gotta finish the job this time around.”

Tim Stebbins covers the Guardians for MLB.com

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