Guardians’ 10 burning questions for the 2023 season: Predictions? MVP? Rule change impact?
Cleveland Guardians' Josh Bell connects for a run-scoring single against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning of a spring training baseball game Tuesday, March 14, 2023, in Goodyear, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
By Zack Meisel
7h ago
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As the 2023 MLB season kicks off, there are a lot of new things to learn. There are a number of major rule changes that were designed to speed up the game and increase offense. The new balanced schedule will result in all 30 teams playing every team. And an action-packed offseason saw free agents taking home major dollars with new teams.
To get ready for the Guardians’ season, here is everything you need to know:
Scores & Schedule | Roster | Stats
What to expect from the Guardians this season?
Keith Law’s season projection: 88-74
The Athletic’s staff voting (percentages reflect first-place votes):
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians
54.8%
Minnesota Twins
29.0%
Chicago White Sox
16.1%
Detroit Tigers
0.0%
Kansas City Royals
0.0%
The Guardians are the team to beat in the AL Central, and they have the pitching and defense to surprise people in October like they did last year. — Jim Bowden
Bold prediction:
The Guardians, per usual, have starting pitching depth, but do they have the caliber of front-line pitching that can win them a bunch of playoff games? That’ll be one of the more prominent questions they must answer this summer and the hunch here is the five members of the Opening Day rotation won’t be the five most trusted entities come fall. So, you want something bold? The Guardians certainly have the trade ammunition to acquire the best starting pitcher on the market in July. But let’s go the internal route and say one of their pitching prospects ranked in Law’s Top 50 — Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams or Tanner Bibee — starts a playoff game. In fact, we’ll go with Williams. And Espino will be in the bullpen.
What moves did the Guardians make this offseason?
Trades:
• INF Juan Brito from Rockies for 3B Nolan Jones
• INF Owen Miller to Brewers for a player to be named
• OF Justin Boyd and LHP Steven Hajjar from Reds for OF Will Benson
Free-agent signings:
• 1B/DH Josh Bell, 2 years/$33 million
• C Mike Zunino, 1 year/$6 million
Extensions:
• Andrés Giménez, 7 years/$106.5 million, with a $23 million option for an eighth year that can increase to $24 million with escalators. (Read more on the deal.)
Zack Meisel’s grade: B+
Cleveland’s front office identified two deficiencies in the lineup — catcher and first base/designated hitter — and upgraded both spots with Josh Bell and Mike Zunino. Maybe, then, this grade is slightly harsh, but it’s almost like when the teacher expects the star pupil to go above and beyond what the typical student would do. The Guardians still have a traffic jam on I-71 with a ton of MLB-ready prospects sitting at Triple-A Columbus. They remain in prime position to make a trade this summer, but it felt like a trade for Sean Murphy or a boost in the rotation might have cemented this team atop the AL Central and landed them that A.
Jim Bowden’s grade: B-
The Guardians didn’t make a lot of moves but also didn’t have to after a franchise-record 17 rookies debuted for them last year. Their most significant move was landing the switch-hitting Bell, who gives them better lineup balance and needed power and protection for superstar José Ramírez.
Players to watch
Team MVP?
Surprise, surprise: José Ramírez is the wild pick here for Team MVP. (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)
José Ramírez, 3B: Let’s go out on a limb and choose the guy with five top-six MVP finishes in the past six years. This could be Ramírez’s signature season, though. He’s healthy, after playing through a torn hand ligament for the final four months of last season. He doesn’t hide the fact that he’s a pull hitter, and shift restrictions should encourage him to tap into that profile more often. He’ll have better lineup protection in the massive form of Josh Bell (massive in the literal sense, but also the figurative sense if he, too, benefits from the shift ban). And Ramírez has always been a well-rounded player, an adept defender at third base and one of the league’s elite base runners, which should allow him to capitalize on the larger bases and limited pitcher disengagements.
Who impressed the most in spring training?
Gabriel Arias, IF: He’s the sultan of spring training, the colossus of Cactus League clout. For the third straight camp, Arias torched spring pitching and dazzled defensively. What will that earn him? Uh, well, how about a utility infielder job? Arias turned 23 last month. He could very well develop into an everyday shortstop at some point. But Cleveland’s infield is crowded, with Ramírez, Giménez and Amed Rosario starting on a daily basis. Arias has attempted to make himself more versatile, and therefore more valuable, by learning first base and the outfield. More than anything, though, he’s reminded the organization this spring that he’s deserving of as many opportunities as the team can find for him.
Most impacted by the new rules?
José Ramírez, 3B: It’s almost unfair when the club’s best player is the one who stands to benefit most from the new rules, but they should aid several parts of his well-rounded game. Ramírez is annually rated as one of the sport’s top base runners, and now he has less distance to cover when advancing from station to station. He has stolen bases at an 81 percent clip during his career. And when batting left-handed, Ramírez faced a shift 93.9 percent of the time; only four hitters in the league encountered such alignments more often. He admitted his preference is to thrive as a pull hitter (almost all of his home runs are to his pull side), and now he’ll have more opportunities to live that way. “I hope and I think it’s going to benefit me,” he said, “but we’ll have to see how that works out.”
Who has the most to lose (or gain)?
Myles Straw, CF: Straw won a Gold Glove Award last season. He stole 21 bases in 22 attempts. But Will Brennan is lurking. So if Straw can’t offer more at the plate than the .221/.291/.273 he mustered last season, he could eventually lose his grip on the everyday center field gig. He visited Cleveland over the winter to conference with the team’s hitting experts about his approach. He was proficient last season at the beginning (.387 on-base percentage in April) and at the end (.364 OBP in September/October), but had an abysmal four months in between. Another outage could pave the way for Brennan to land more playing time and shift Straw into more of a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch-runner role. Or, if Straw can reach base at a sufficient clip, with his speed (hello, larger bases) and defense, he could prove quite valuable.
Most likely to have a bounce-back season?
How will catcher Mike Zunino fare this season for the Guardians? (Joe Camporeale / USA Today)
Mike Zunino, C: Two years ago, Zunino was an All-Star who posted an .860 OPS and smashed 33 home runs (in only 333 at-bats; that HR/AB rate matches late-’90s Sammy Sosa, for those with an affinity for cherry-picked stats). That performance, paired with his defensive chops, placed him at 4.5 fWAR and in 10th place on one voter’s AL MVP ballot. Last season, Zunino was dreadful at the plate (43 wRC+) in 36 games before undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. So, can he split the difference in 2023 now that he’s healthy? That would equate to a .680 OPS, which is, coincidentally, his career figure, and would represent a substantial upgrade over the (lack of) production Cleveland received from its catching tandem in 2022.
Likeliest to outperform their fantasy draft ranking??
Aaron Civale (Ranking: SP 100): The injured list had a magnetic pull on Civale last season, and it overshadowed the fact that, after a brutal first six weeks, he actually was a solid starter (3.24 ERA after mid-May). He just wasn’t available enough. A year earlier, he was Cleveland’s most dependable starter before being sidelined. Sensing a theme here? These haven’t been structural injuries, but more of the freak variety, so he’s hopeful that, especially after employing a different offseason training regimen, he’ll stay on the mound. If he does that, there’s a decent chance he exceeds expectations.
Rookie most likely to make an impact?
Will Brennan, OF: Let’s go with one of the 17 Guardians rookies who debuted last season. Brennan will maintain his rookie status in 2023 and it’s not clear how often he’ll play, but he’s up first when the team needs an extra outfielder, and he should be able to carve out more playing time as the season unfolds. Last season, he posted a .311/.382/.504 slash line at Double A, then hit .316/.367/.471 at Triple A and then — granted, in only 45 plate appearances — delivered a .357/.400/.500 clip in the majors. He got that first taste of the big leagues out of the way. He got those “record scratch, freeze frame, you’re probably wondering how I ended up in the batter’s box against Gerrit Cole in a pivotal playoff game” nerves out of the way. Now, all he has to do is hit when called upon, and that’s usually worked out pretty well for him.
How good is the Guardians’ farm system?
No. 1 prospect: Brayan Rocchio, SS
Rocchio got off to a slow start in Double A last year, although he was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League at age 21, but improved as the season went on, hitting .316/.383/.539 in his last 50 games (of 99) before he was promoted to Triple A for the last five weeks of the season. He’s a smaller guy (5-foot-10, 170 pounds) but makes hard contact, hitting 15 homers in 2021 and 18 last year, although he puts the ball on the ground a little too often for this type of hitter. He’s always had a compact, direct swing, and over the past few years he’s learned to stay back on the ball, with great balance through contact. He hits well from both sides but his swing is slightly better right-handed. He’s an above-average defender at shortstop with good hands and 55 speed, although once again, he was bad at the whole base stealing thing, going 14-for-23 (61 percent) to bring his career success rate down to 64 percent. I guess it’s a good thing he can field, hit, and hit for power. He could stand to walk a little more, although some of his impatience may stem from him always being young for his levels, and he needs to continue to put the ball in the air. I still see All-Star upside here, a shortstop who saves a few runs a year with his glove and adds a ton more with .280-.300 averages, adequate walk rates, and 15-20 homers a year. — Law
Organization’s ranking: No. 2
The Guardians seem to do two things exceptionally well: They have found a ton of talent, notably infield talent, through international free agency, and they have a clear process where they identify college starters with command and good deliveries whom they can help find increased velocity. It’s helped them weather some big misses in the draft (Brady Aiken, Ethan Hankins), although they saw a big bounce back this year from another first-rounder who looked like he might not pan out in Bo Naylor. There’s tremendous depth in infield talent here, much of it below the top-100 level but those players could end up as regulars in the right situation or at least have that potential upside with some volatility in their bats. — Law
