and the 7th and final:
Will a Central team finally reach the LCS?
Prediction: Yes!
The last three NLCS rounds have all been between teams from the East and West. It’s even worse in the AL, where the Central hasn’t been represented on the LCS stage since 2016. The six-year absence is the longest any division has gone without LCS advancement since the LCS was first contested under the three-division format in 1995.
An added wrinkle that Central clubs will have to overcome is the new, more balanced schedule. If recent history is any indication, that will negatively impact the win totals of the top Central squads -- perhaps relegating both Central Division champions to the Wild Card Series (again) while also decreasing the odds of Wild Card winners coming from the Central.
All of which is to say the odds seem to be stacked against the Central squads.
But we’re here to go out on limbs -- and go out on limbs we shall, by saying the Central skid dies here! Both reigning Central winners -- the Cardinals and Guardians -- have significantly improved their offenses this winter. And after successfully defending their division titles, they will both play in the LCS. The Guards will be the ones to take down the Astros, while the Cards will be the ones to put the Padres out to pasture.
Your 2023 LCS matchups will be: Cardinals vs. Dodgers and Guardians vs. Yankees.
Re: Articles
9197
Can Andres Gimenez Recreate Breakout Season With The Guardians?
Andres Gimenez is coming off an All-Star season with the Cleveland Guardians, but models differ on whether or not this success is sustainable.
TOMMY WILD
DEC 31, 2022 1:29 PM EST
One of the biggest surprises during the 2022 regular season was the breakout year that Andres Gimenez had. One question remains though, can he replicate this performance in 2023?
Gimenez spent much of the 2021 season in Triple-A Columbus. Even when he was with the Major League team, he didn't do too much to impress on the offensive side. His batting average was just .218 with a .633 OPS.
However, he was a completely different hitter in 2022 and slashed .297/.371/.466 with a .837 OPS. He also hit 17 home runs and had 69 RBI.
There's good reason to believe that Gimenez can pick up right where he left off in 2023. This has to do with his batting stance.
Gimenez played around a lot with his batting stance during the first two seasons of his career. Plus, getting traded after his rookie season didn't help with making sure he was consistent in the box.
But after the 2021 offseason, he came to Spring Training with the same stance and swing he left with, eliminated his high leg kick, and the rest is history.
Early projections don't totally seem to be on board with this continued success though.
FanGraphs is predicting Gimenez to hit three more home runs (20) next season but drop in other categories. This includes his average going from .297 to .267, his OBP going from .371 to .331, and his wOBA going from .364 to .333.
Baseball Reference on the other hand is a little more hopeful. They project some of Gimenez's stats to fall but not nearly as dramatically as FanGraphs. Baseball Reference projects him to slash .276/347/.431 while still maintaining a strong OPS of .778.
It's important to remember that these are just projections, but they do give us a glimpse of how others are viewing the upcoming season for Gimenez. He could exceed them or even fall short. Now we'll just have to wait what feels like forever to see if these models have it right or wrong.
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“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
9198
Do Guardians infielders have enough range to handle MLB’s shiftless era? Hey, Hoynsie
Updated: Dec. 31, 2022, 11:01 a.m.|Published: Dec. 31, 2022, 5:05 a.m.
By Paul Hoynes
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Do you have a question that you’d like to have answered in Hey, Hoynsie? Submit it here. You can also subscribe to Subtext here or text Hoynsie at 216-208-4346 for a two-week free trial.
Hey, Hoynsie: A lot of the focus of the shift limitations for the 2023 season has been on offense. But do you think the Guards’ infielders have the range defensively to limit damage? -- Skip B., Broadview Heights.
Hey, Skip: That’s what we’re going to find out. The good thing is that the Guards have two shortstops playing in the middle of the diamond with Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez. Statcast’s metrics have Gimenez, a Gold Glove winner at second base, leading Cleveland with 13 outs above average, while preventing 10 runs. It did not treat Rosario as kindly. He received minus-10 in OAA and minus-8 in runs prevented. FanGraphs credited Rosario with six defensive runs saved compared to minus-9 in 2021. Fangraphs credited Gimenez with 16 defensive runs saved in 2022. On the corners, Statcast gave third baseman Jose Ramirez and first baseman Josh Naylor an OAA of three each. Incoming first baseman Josh Bell recieved a minus-4 OAA. Outs above average is a range-based metric that shows how many outs a player has saved based on MLB’s Statcast data. Here are some of the things it takes into account when rating a player.
• How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball (the intercept point).
• How much time he has to get there.
• How far he then is from the base the runner is heading to.
• On force plays, how fast the batter is, on average.
Hey Hoynsie: Amed Rosario is only 27 and one of the Guardians most consistent hitters. Why do you suppose that a good portion of the Cleveland fan base is anxious to trade him? -- Andy Mees, Sandusky.
Hey, Andy: I’m not sure the majority of Cleveland fans want to trade Rosario. But franchise history says that when a player is one year from free agency as Rosario is, he is a candidate to be moved. Still, Rosario finished third in the AL with 180 hits and posted a 4.2 WAR last season. Defensively, he has some shortcomings, but overall I thought he played well at shortstop last season. He’s also a valuable part of the offense, hitting between Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez at the top of the lineup.
Hey, Hoynsie: Regarding your story on the top 20 Guardians games from last season, I would have added the September 25 against the Rangers to the list. They beat Texas that day 10-4 with the clinch becoming official late in the game because of a White Sox loss. Steven Kwan’s late slam put a massive punctuation mark on the day. -- Bob Maistros, Lake Worth, Florida.
Hey, Bob: You raise a good point. The G’s knew they were on the brink of a clinch and played like it. The celebration after the game was epic.
Hey, Hoynsie: What were the terms of Corey Kluber’s contract with Boston? I think he could still be a contributor and mentor to the younger pitchers. -- Carey B., Bethesda, Maryland.
Hey, Carey: Boston and Kluber agreed to a one-year $10 million deal with a club option worth $11 million for 2024. Kluber, 37 in April, isn’t the same pitcher who won two Cy Young awards with Cleveland. But he did make 31 starts last season with the Rays after dealing with injuries the two previous years. If a young big league pitcher wants to learn how to prepare for a start on game day, and how to prepare between starts, all he has to do is watch Kluber. That’s what he brings to a team.
Hey, Hoynsie: I know there was talk about involving right-handers Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac in a trade. Do you think the Guardians go to spring training hoping they can still be in the rotation? -- Jim Harris, Lancaster.
Hey, Jim: The Guardians found out a long time ago that the best way to build a rotation was through the draft and trades. The cost of free agent pitching is just too high as we’ve seen once again this winter. They drafted and developed Civale and Plesac. If Civale can stay healthy, and Plesac can stop breaking bones in his pitching hand, they could keep their spots at the backend of the rotation. Civale and Plesac are eligible for arbitration with two years of team control left.
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“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
9199
Some New Year’s resolutions for the Cleveland Guardians: The week in baseball
Updated: Dec. 31, 2022, 8:38 p.m.| Published: Dec. 31, 2022, 4:51 p.m.
By Paul Hoynes
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- A new year is upon us. Treadmills have been purchased. Resolutions have been made. Blood oaths taken.
Before those treadmills become a magnet for discarded clothes and suitcases, let us turn our attention to the Guardians. Pitchers and catchers will soon be reporting to Goodyear, Ariz., for spring training. While the new year is still awakening, let us ponder what resolutions the Guards must make to continue the upward trajectory they began last season.
It is always best to do this on an individual basis. So here goes.
Owner Paul Dolan: Raise the G’s payroll to match the estimated $110 million penalty Mets owner Steve Cohen will pay for blowing through every luxury tax threshold in the new basic agreement.
Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff: Just keep doing what you’re doing.
Manager Terry Francona: Another healthy season, one more switch-hitter to bat lower in the lineup and a helmet with extra padding when Josh Naylor goes to the plate would all be welcomed.
3B Jose Ramirez: That his right thumb stays strong and he finally wins an AL MVP award.
1B-DH Josh Naylor: A sound right ankle and a lot more chances to “rock the baby” in 2023 even if the Yankees don’t like it.
RHP Shane Bieber: That his evolution as a pitcher continues. Last year he upped the usage of his cutter and slider when his velo dropped a bit on his fastball with good results.
1B-DH Josh Bell: That the incentive of the 2023 opt out inspires Bell to channel the first half of last season with the Nationals and his entire 2019 season with the Pirates.
2B Andres Gimenez: The addition of Bell should allow Gimenez to continue to do damage at the bottom of the lineup. He hit .301 (545 for 183) and .320 (40 for 125), respectively, in the sixth and seventh spots last season with 11 of his 17 home runs.
SS Amed Rosario: He’s led Cleveland with 335 hits (.282 average, 163 runs) over the last two seasons. Why stop now?
RHP Triston McKenzie: A season of 200 innings and 200 strikeouts is right around the corner.
RHP Cal Quantrill: That his good fortune at Progressive Field -- 14-0, 2.88 ERA in the regular season -- continues.
RHP Zach Plesac: He would benefit from a more serene attitude to protect the bones in his right hand from making contact with hard objects.
RHP Aaron Civale: A fast and healthy start to 2023 would go a long way to forget the last season and a half of injuries.
RHP James Karinchak: Fear not the new pitch clock. It can’t be any worse than an umpire running his fingers through your hair searching for a foreign substance.
C Mike Zunino: He needs to make the jump from 36 games last year with the Rays to fulltime status this year with the Guardians. Last year’s season was cut short because of surgery on his left arm for thoracic outlet snydrome.
LF Steven Kwan: If he bottled his rookie season and uncorked it in 2023, who could complain?
RHP Emmanuel Clase: That his Mariano Rivera award for being the top closer in the American League in 2022 was the first of many. His stuff is that good.
CF Myles Straw: OK, Straw didn’t hit a home run last year, but he did win a Gold Glove. Regarding 2023, how about he boosts his onbase percentage closer to the .349 that he posted in 2021 as opposed to .291 from last season?
RF Oscar Gonzalez: A few more walks and a full season on par with the 91 games he played in 2022 would certainly help Cleveland’s cause. But don’t change the SpongeBob walk-up music. Some things are absolved from New Year’s resolutions.
RHP Nick Sandlin: He can help the bullpen, if he can stay healthy. The opposition hit .176 against Sandlin -- .149 by right-handers -- last season.
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“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
9200
Cleveland Guardians: Is there a spot for Will Brennan in the majors in 2023?
By Cade Cracas
Dec 30, 2022
The Cleveland Guardians are loaded with farm system talent. Whether it's Triple-A or Single-A, the Guardians front office has a lot of upcoming players to keep their eyes on.
At one point in time, outfielder Will Brennan was one of those farm system pieces, except he made himself known and separated himself from those around him. With incredible hitting consistencies, intense energy, and a competitive persona, he made his way from Double-A to the majors within the 2022 MLB season.
While with the Double-A Akron RubberDucks, he was lethal in the batter's box. In 135 at-bats he clobbered 42 hits, 12 doubles, four home runs, one triple, and 39 RBIs. While he may not have the most eye-popping power, his RBI total showcases that he can still drive in runs with his bat-to-ball skills.
After slashing .311/.382/.504 in Double-A, he would get his shot with the Triple-A Columbus Clippers.
Making the jump to another level of baseball would normally affect most athletes, but Brennan isn't like most athletes.
From the jump in Triple-A, he dominated and cranked home run after home run, finishing his stint with the Clippers with a total of nine. Outside of home runs, his success continued as he slashed .316/.367/.471 to go alongside 68 RBIs.
After seeing how well he did in the minors, the Guardians' front office had enough and decided to give him his shot in the majors as the major-league season came to a close.
On Sept. 21, 2022, Brennan would get his shot in the majors as he would be called up from Columbus to the Guardians. In just 11 games, he recorded 42 at-bats to go alongside 15 hits, eight RBIs, and one triple, double, and home run.
Even though he played in just 11 games, he made an impact in late September when the Guardians needed it. His slashing percentages carried up from the minors as well as he slashed .357/.400/.500.
In the majors, he also tried out a variety of roles in left field, center field, right field, and designated hitter to give the Guardians' front office the best opportunity to have him succeed. In those positions, he succeeded, recording a perfect fielding percentage, converting on all 17 opportunities he had to put out opponents.
With that being said, does Will Brennan have a chance to remain in the majors in 2023?
While he thrived in the minors and during his short stint in the majors, the Cleveland Guardians' front office has been confusing when it comes to their farm system talent. Earlier in the season, Triple-A stud Nolan Jones was called up to the majors to give some much-needed release to a roster that had its ups and downs. Jones was able to provide that relief, but before long he was sent down to the minors once again before being traded to the Rockies this offseason.
The Guardians are a team that loves their farm system, but oftentimes has strict ideologies set in place that tend to restrict minor leaguers from growing in the majors. Will Benson, Tyler Freeman, and Jones are prime examples of players who have the potential to take a step forward in the majors if the opportunity presents itself.
With Brennan, though, the Guardians were not afraid to throw him into the outfield to see what he can accomplish. If you watch this team closely it looks like the Guardians might begin to have a short leash with center fielder Myles Straw. If Brennan does have a chance in the majors in 2023 it will come from the center field position or as a designated hitter.
As we have seen in previous years, including the 2022 season, injuries can affect a team and that could be a prime opportunity for Brennan to step into a larger spotlight. If I had to predict, Brennan will start off his season in the majors, and if the opportunities are not aligning he will head down to Triple-A for a moment to stay fresh and get regular at-bats.
He has immense hitting talent, incredible fielding abilities, and an energy that is notable in every crack and crevice of the field, so expect to see Brennan display these qualities next year, whether it's in the majors or minors.
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“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
9201
Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
By Mark Polishuk | December 31, 2022 at 11:09pm CDT
Guardians: There hasn’t yet been any public word on the details of Terry Francona’s extension, but the reigning AL Manager Of The Year has already been confirmed as returning for the 2023 campaign. Given Francona’s health issues, 2023 could be his final season in the dugout, but the Guardians’ front office and team owner Paul Dolan have both intimated that Francona can remain as manager as long as he is willing and able. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti also doesn’t seem to be in any danger, though the longtime Cleveland exec’s contract terms aren’t known.
Francona just completed his tenth year as Cleveland’s manager, having gone 845-671 during his time with the organization. Cleveland has made the postseason six times under his management, with the highlight of those postseason runs coming in 2016, when Cleveland captured the AL pennant and made it all the way to game 7 of the World Series before ultimately falling to the Cubs. Prior to his time in Cleveland, Francona spent 8 years as manager of the Red Sox, collecting two World Series championships during his time there. He also spent four years as manager of the Phillies.
It should come as no surprise that the Guardians want to retain Francona, seeing as 2021’s 80-82 record is the only sub-.500 finish the organization has suffered under his management, a remarkable accomplishment for a small-market club. That being said, Francona has struggled with health concerns in recent years, with his latest procedure being one to remove drains from his back that he will undergo this offseason. Given this, it’s no wonder than Francona and the Guardians front office plan to assess his managerial status on a year-to-year basis.
<
“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
9202
Major League Baseball needs to declare July 5th Larry Doby Day
By Chris Slocombe
10:02 AM EST
It is way past time that Rob Manfred and crew get their heads out of their collective rear ends, and start to honor Larry Doby on July 5th every season. It's truly an embarrassment that the league pays very little respect to the man who broke the color barrier in the American League.
Doby joined the Cleveland Indians July 5, 1947, a mere three months after Jackie Robinson broke in with the Brooklyn Dodgers, and he endured a number of the same trials and tribulations that Robinson did. During his tenure in Cleveland, Doby was a seven time All-Star, helped propel the Indians to the 1948 World Series title, and was inducted in the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1998. For his 17-year career, Doby was nine time All-Star.
Cleveland has honored Mr. Doby in the past (in 2007 for the 60th anniversary) and the team has worn a patch as well. This past year the team also unveiled a mural of Doby, Frank Robinson, and Satchel Paige. Even as recently as 2020, team President Chris Antonetti was in discussion with the league about wearing Doby's number 14 in the future.
The league does honor Jackie Robinson, who broke the color barrier for all of baseball, every April 15th. Each team dons his number 42 - teams also have a memorial patch on their hats - and the number is retired league-wide. I'm not even advocating for the league to go that far. But doing nothing is a really bad look.
What I would propose for Major League Baseball to do is quite simple. Let the Guardians wear number 14 each July 5th, and their opponent can wear a memorial patch. At a minimum that's it, plain and simple.
If the Detroit Tigers can honor the Detroit Stars each year, then why can't the Guardians honor Doby? Maybe Manfred doesn't want to take away from the fake/forced patriotism and flag-adorned jerseys, hats, and socks of July 4th. I have no idea; I'm just merely speculating.
It's time to do right by Doby and finally give him the yearly recognition he deserves! So on the off-chance that anyone in any position of power within Major League Baseball or the Cleveland Guardians reads/catches wind of this... MAKE IT HAPPEN ALREADY!
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“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
9203
3 CUBANS IN THE TOP 10: Latino prospects with the best projection by 2023, MLB REPORTED
By Guillermo Sanchez
The 2022 MLB campaign gave us great moments: Miguel Cabrera 's 3,000th hit, Albert Pujols ' 700th home run or Aaron Judge 's breaking the American League home run record .
But also at the level of prospects we could see that the future is guaranteed in the Majors. Twelve of the top 100 prospects made their Opening Day 2022 debut -- in fact, three of the top five -- were on that list: Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez (AL Rookie of the Year) and Spencer Torkelson.
But others quickly followed suit: Michael Harris II (NL Rookie of the Year) and Adley Rutchsman (second in AL Rookie of the Year voting). Without a doubt, the walk of luminaries from the minors to the majors is something we will all remember from 2022.
Now, the projection for 2023 is no different, in fact, it could be even better.
With the arrival of the New Year, we want to present you the Top 10 Latino prospects who can (and want to) make the leap to the major leagues. Without any order, it is worth a look:
Toronto Blue Jays: Yosver Zulueta , RHP (No. 5) : The Cuban's fastball is over 90 mph and if it weren't for his injuries last year, he would have crashed the big party. If he doesn't get a ticket in spring training, for sure, if he stays healthy, he'll be on the lookout in 2023.
Boston Red Sox: Ceddane Rafaela, OF/SS (No. 3/MLB No. 96) : The Curaçao-born is considered "The Best Defenseman in the Minor Leagues." It would be necessary to hope that the Red Sox see if they cover the hole left by Bogaerts and from there study their future.
Cleveland Guardians: Daniel Espino, RHP (No. 1/MLB No. 15) : The Panamanian has a fastball that comfortably exceeds 90 mph, in fact, he was seen at 101 mph on a few occasions. His curve and slider are very supportive.
Detroit Tigers: Wilmer Flores, RHP (No. 3/MLB No. 100) : In Detroit, 2022 was the year of rookie hitters. By 2023, the Venezuelan can help change the trend, he still does not play in Triple A, but it is not expected that he will last long there.
Chicago White Sox: Oscar Colás , OF (No. 2/MLB No. 95) : Following his massive $2.7 million signing last year, the Cuban did not disappoint in the minor leagues. His power and his arm make him a great prospect as a right fielder, which is precisely what the White Sox need.
Houston Astros: Pedro León , OF/2B (No. 4) : The Cuban has a lot of power in his bat and arm, but to earn a place among the defending champions, he must be a little more consistent.
New York Mets: Ronny Mauricio, SS (No. 6) : He is one of the most difficult to have it. The Dominican fights for a position where two Puerto Ricans are MLB leaders. However, his bat can be used if the metropolitans call for it.
Miami Marlins: Eury Perez, RHP (No. 1/MLB No. 9) : At just 19 years old, the Dominican has nothing to prove at lower levels. His effectiveness, strikeout rate and average of the rivals are his card to make the big leap.
Pitsburgh Pirates: Endy Rodríguez, C/2B/OF (No. 6/MLB No. 97) : The Dominican only has to show off his potent .323/.407/.590 offensive line with 25 home runs in Triple-A to make it out . If you add his versatility to that, you have guaranteed success.
Cincinnati Reds: Elly de la Cruz, SS/3B (No. 1/MLB No. 14) : In Double A, the Dominican posted a record of 304/.359/.586 with 28 homers and 47 steals. He is considered the "most electric prospect" of all.
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“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
9204Evaluating Zach Plesac's Trade Value
More pitching, more problems?
Willie Hood
28 min ago
More pitching, more problems? The Cleveland Guardians have a unique commodity. That is starting pitching depth. With that depth comes opportunity.
This writer has often said if you (a team) have pitching (depth) you can get anything. The point is there is excess value in pitching and teams are always on the lookout for more. This creates opportunity and presumes quality, depth, and development for in-house options.
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Consider the reported request for Sean Murphy involving one of the "big three" pitching prospects. Then the actual return involved three pitchers including Atlanta's top prospect Kyle Muller among others. Reports indicate a similar ask for Bryan Reynolds.
There's a huge gap in talent and value between arms such as Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Zach Plesac. Yet, innings have value, and league-average/fringe-average pitching comes at a cost. Plesac, soon-to-be 28, has relative youth, athleticism, 3 seasons of control remaining, and a low base salary (projected to make $2.9M in 2023 per Mlbtraderumors.com in his first season of arbitration). The right-hander produced 132.1 IP and a 0.9 fWAR in 2022. Streamer projects 137 IP and 0.7 fWAR in 2023.
Exploring free agency
Look for example at the cost of signing a free agent:
Zach Eflin (29)- 75.2 IP, 1.4 fWAR- signed with Tampa Bay for 3 years/$40M
Corey Kluber (36)- 164 IP, 3.0 fWAR- signed with Boston for 1 year/$10M with a team option for $11M in 2024
Jordan Lyles (32)- 179 IP, 1.4 fWAR- signed with Kansas City for 2 years/$17M
Rich Hill (42)- 121.1 IP, 1.8 fWAR- signed with Pittsburgh for 1 year/$8M
Kyle Gibson (35)- 167.2 IP, 1.8 fWAR- signed with Baltimore for 1 year/$10M
Jose Quintana (34)- 165.2 IP, 4.0 fWAR- signed with the New York Mets for 2 years/$26M
Michael Wacha (31)- 127.1 IP, 1.5 fWAR- currently a free agent
Examining the trade market
Look at the cost to acquire pitching via the trade market:
Jose Quintana with 60+ games of control and Chris Stratton (0.7 fWAR) with 1.3 seasons of control were traded to St. Louis for former top 10 Cardinals prospect (mlb.com) Johan Oviedo (0.7 fWAR) and 10th overall ranked prospect Malcom Nunez (45 FV).
Jordan Montgomery (2.7 fWAR) from the New York Yankees with 1.3 seasons of control was traded to St. Louis for Harrison Bader (1.5 fWAR) with 1.3 seasons of control and cash.
Tyler Mahle (120.2 IP, 2.1 fWAR) with 1.3 seasons of control was traded from Cincinnati to Minnesota for 7th ranked prospect (mlb.com) Spencer Steer (50 FV), 18th ranked Steven Hajjar (45 FV), and 23rd ranked Christian Encarnacion-Strand (45 FV).
So who would want him?
Well, that depends on who needs a cost-controlled back-of-the-rotation starter. There were rumors that Philadelphia and St. Louis pursued Plesac in a 2022 trade deadline deal. Obviously, things didn’t pan out at that time. With the remaining free agent market providing little talent for the expenditures required will teams pivot toward more cost-controlled pieces like Zach Plesac? Speculatively, St. Louis, Baltimore, and the Los Angeles Angels among others could pursue the right-hander. The Toronto Blue Jays were another club that was rumored to have an interest in the enigmatic righty.
What’s the cost?
Figuring his cost at an ascending value of $3.5M, $6.5M, and $10M over the next 3 seasons of arbitration. That equates to a total cost of $20M for three seasons of control. Projecting an annual salary as if he were a free agent the cost figures on the low-end are $8M (Rich Hill’s deal) annually (three seasons) or $11M (Eflin’s deal) on the high-end. In other words, Plesac would have a cost of $24M/$33M as a free agent for 3 years of control. That provides the excess value (exceeding $20M) of $4M+$13 (added and then divided by 2). Utilizing middle ground that places an excess value of $9.5M.
What’s Plesac’s trade value?
Utilizing the low-end figure above of $24M would equate to a trade value/cost of 3 prospects equaling $24M.
$10M = 50 FV (h/t Fangraphs)
$8M = 45 FV
$6M = 40 FV
That cost may seem high, but price inflation and scarcity have driven the cost of pitching in free agency and via the trade market northward.
Alternatively…
$8M = 45 FV
$6M = 40 FV
$4M = 35+ FV
Seems to be a more realistic outcome considering Plesac’s sub-1 fWAR combined with his excess value ($9.5M).
Considering Cincinnati’s return (3 prospects: 50 FV, 45 FV, and 45 FV) for Tyler Mahle for 1.3 seasons of control as precedence, Cleveland appears to have grounds to ask for a better return.
Perhaps, there’s a happy medium…
$8M = 45 FV
$8M = 45 FV
$6M = 40 FV
Cleveland is in a contention cycle and does not need to acquire more prospects. The truth is their system is flush with depth/quality prospects. A more likely scenario would include major league help and a prospect or two to extract maximum value.
Prediction?
Ultimately, the clock seems to be ticking on Zach Plesac’s time in Cleveland. “Other factors” could motivate Cleveland’s willingness to move him. Frankly, it seems as if it is just a matter of time before the Guardians front office makes way/creates opportunities for equally/more talented arms in the system. If Zach Plesac is not traded this offseason he could serve as a bridge before transitioning to other arms (Morris, Curry, Gaddis, Pilkington, Allen, etc.) by the 2023 MLB trade deadline.
More pitching, more problems?
Willie Hood
28 min ago
More pitching, more problems? The Cleveland Guardians have a unique commodity. That is starting pitching depth. With that depth comes opportunity.
This writer has often said if you (a team) have pitching (depth) you can get anything. The point is there is excess value in pitching and teams are always on the lookout for more. This creates opportunity and presumes quality, depth, and development for in-house options.
Thanks for reading Next Year in Cleveland! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Type your email…
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Consider the reported request for Sean Murphy involving one of the "big three" pitching prospects. Then the actual return involved three pitchers including Atlanta's top prospect Kyle Muller among others. Reports indicate a similar ask for Bryan Reynolds.
There's a huge gap in talent and value between arms such as Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Zach Plesac. Yet, innings have value, and league-average/fringe-average pitching comes at a cost. Plesac, soon-to-be 28, has relative youth, athleticism, 3 seasons of control remaining, and a low base salary (projected to make $2.9M in 2023 per Mlbtraderumors.com in his first season of arbitration). The right-hander produced 132.1 IP and a 0.9 fWAR in 2022. Streamer projects 137 IP and 0.7 fWAR in 2023.
Exploring free agency
Look for example at the cost of signing a free agent:
Zach Eflin (29)- 75.2 IP, 1.4 fWAR- signed with Tampa Bay for 3 years/$40M
Corey Kluber (36)- 164 IP, 3.0 fWAR- signed with Boston for 1 year/$10M with a team option for $11M in 2024
Jordan Lyles (32)- 179 IP, 1.4 fWAR- signed with Kansas City for 2 years/$17M
Rich Hill (42)- 121.1 IP, 1.8 fWAR- signed with Pittsburgh for 1 year/$8M
Kyle Gibson (35)- 167.2 IP, 1.8 fWAR- signed with Baltimore for 1 year/$10M
Jose Quintana (34)- 165.2 IP, 4.0 fWAR- signed with the New York Mets for 2 years/$26M
Michael Wacha (31)- 127.1 IP, 1.5 fWAR- currently a free agent
Examining the trade market
Look at the cost to acquire pitching via the trade market:
Jose Quintana with 60+ games of control and Chris Stratton (0.7 fWAR) with 1.3 seasons of control were traded to St. Louis for former top 10 Cardinals prospect (mlb.com) Johan Oviedo (0.7 fWAR) and 10th overall ranked prospect Malcom Nunez (45 FV).
Jordan Montgomery (2.7 fWAR) from the New York Yankees with 1.3 seasons of control was traded to St. Louis for Harrison Bader (1.5 fWAR) with 1.3 seasons of control and cash.
Tyler Mahle (120.2 IP, 2.1 fWAR) with 1.3 seasons of control was traded from Cincinnati to Minnesota for 7th ranked prospect (mlb.com) Spencer Steer (50 FV), 18th ranked Steven Hajjar (45 FV), and 23rd ranked Christian Encarnacion-Strand (45 FV).
So who would want him?
Well, that depends on who needs a cost-controlled back-of-the-rotation starter. There were rumors that Philadelphia and St. Louis pursued Plesac in a 2022 trade deadline deal. Obviously, things didn’t pan out at that time. With the remaining free agent market providing little talent for the expenditures required will teams pivot toward more cost-controlled pieces like Zach Plesac? Speculatively, St. Louis, Baltimore, and the Los Angeles Angels among others could pursue the right-hander. The Toronto Blue Jays were another club that was rumored to have an interest in the enigmatic righty.
What’s the cost?
Figuring his cost at an ascending value of $3.5M, $6.5M, and $10M over the next 3 seasons of arbitration. That equates to a total cost of $20M for three seasons of control. Projecting an annual salary as if he were a free agent the cost figures on the low-end are $8M (Rich Hill’s deal) annually (three seasons) or $11M (Eflin’s deal) on the high-end. In other words, Plesac would have a cost of $24M/$33M as a free agent for 3 years of control. That provides the excess value (exceeding $20M) of $4M+$13 (added and then divided by 2). Utilizing middle ground that places an excess value of $9.5M.
What’s Plesac’s trade value?
Utilizing the low-end figure above of $24M would equate to a trade value/cost of 3 prospects equaling $24M.
$10M = 50 FV (h/t Fangraphs)
$8M = 45 FV
$6M = 40 FV
That cost may seem high, but price inflation and scarcity have driven the cost of pitching in free agency and via the trade market northward.
Alternatively…
$8M = 45 FV
$6M = 40 FV
$4M = 35+ FV
Seems to be a more realistic outcome considering Plesac’s sub-1 fWAR combined with his excess value ($9.5M).
Considering Cincinnati’s return (3 prospects: 50 FV, 45 FV, and 45 FV) for Tyler Mahle for 1.3 seasons of control as precedence, Cleveland appears to have grounds to ask for a better return.
Perhaps, there’s a happy medium…
$8M = 45 FV
$8M = 45 FV
$6M = 40 FV
Cleveland is in a contention cycle and does not need to acquire more prospects. The truth is their system is flush with depth/quality prospects. A more likely scenario would include major league help and a prospect or two to extract maximum value.
Prediction?
Ultimately, the clock seems to be ticking on Zach Plesac’s time in Cleveland. “Other factors” could motivate Cleveland’s willingness to move him. Frankly, it seems as if it is just a matter of time before the Guardians front office makes way/creates opportunities for equally/more talented arms in the system. If Zach Plesac is not traded this offseason he could serve as a bridge before transitioning to other arms (Morris, Curry, Gaddis, Pilkington, Allen, etc.) by the 2023 MLB trade deadline.
Re: Articles
9205Fan-site Covering the Corners is doing writeups on all 2022 players
Enyel De Los Santos was the Guardians’ latest reclamation project
Every offseason, the Cleveland Guardians’ front office rummages through the free agent scrap heap and signs discarded relief pitchers to minor league contracts. Every year, almost without exception, at least one of them turns out to be a diamond in the rough.
This year, that diamond was Enyel De Los Santos.
The 26-year-old right-hander was first signed as an international free agent by the Seattle Mariners back in 2014. He was traded three years later to the Philadelphia Phillies, with whom he made his big league debut in 2018. But De Los Santos struggled with the Phillies, even missing all of the 2020 season after being demoted to Triple-A the previous August.
He landed with the Guardians as a free agent this offseason after refusing a minor league assignment from the Pittsburgh Pirates after the conclusion of the 2021 season.
Naturally, De Los Santos’ first season in Cleveland now stands as his most successful, finishing with career bests in ERA (3.04), FIP (2.63), and WAR (1.0).
The most noticeable difference is the performance of his fastball. Not only did the average velocity on his four-seamer increase from 94.8 mph in 2021 to 95.3 mph in 2022, but the average spin rate also increased from 2194 RPM to 2251 RPM. Opposing hitters didn’t have nearly as much success against it. Hitters were batting .333 and slugging .625 against De Los Santos’ four-seam fastball in 2021, before batting .229 and slugging .367 against it in 2022. He also surrendered a career-low 6.5% HR/FB one season removed from a 20.5% HR/FB.
His slider also became an effective secondary pitch for the first time in his career, throwing it a career-high 28.4% of the time. Opposing hitters batted .174 and slugged .290 against his slider in 2022, and it was De Los Santos’ top putaway pitch by season’s end.
It’s difficult to overstate his importance to the Guardians’ bullpen this season, and it’s important to remember that he didn’t even make the Opening Day roster. De Los Santos started the season in Triple-A Columbus and didn’t appear in Cleveland until late April.
He tied with James Karinchak for fourth in the Guardians bullpen in WAR (1.0) and pitched the sixth-most innings (53.1) of any Cleveland reliever. De Los Santos arrived in Cleveland as Eli Morgan’s effectiveness was waning and before James Karinchak and Sam Hentges surged to the top of the bullpen in the second half of the season. He was a stabilizing presence in a bullpen that was desperately searching for reliable arms outside of Emmanuel Clase.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the immaculate inning he recorded against the Tampa Bay Rays on September 27, 2022, perhaps the cherry on top of his outstanding season.
Now we’ll see if De Los Santos can sustain this success.
Enyel De Los Santos was the Guardians’ latest reclamation project
Every offseason, the Cleveland Guardians’ front office rummages through the free agent scrap heap and signs discarded relief pitchers to minor league contracts. Every year, almost without exception, at least one of them turns out to be a diamond in the rough.
This year, that diamond was Enyel De Los Santos.
The 26-year-old right-hander was first signed as an international free agent by the Seattle Mariners back in 2014. He was traded three years later to the Philadelphia Phillies, with whom he made his big league debut in 2018. But De Los Santos struggled with the Phillies, even missing all of the 2020 season after being demoted to Triple-A the previous August.
He landed with the Guardians as a free agent this offseason after refusing a minor league assignment from the Pittsburgh Pirates after the conclusion of the 2021 season.
Naturally, De Los Santos’ first season in Cleveland now stands as his most successful, finishing with career bests in ERA (3.04), FIP (2.63), and WAR (1.0).
The most noticeable difference is the performance of his fastball. Not only did the average velocity on his four-seamer increase from 94.8 mph in 2021 to 95.3 mph in 2022, but the average spin rate also increased from 2194 RPM to 2251 RPM. Opposing hitters didn’t have nearly as much success against it. Hitters were batting .333 and slugging .625 against De Los Santos’ four-seam fastball in 2021, before batting .229 and slugging .367 against it in 2022. He also surrendered a career-low 6.5% HR/FB one season removed from a 20.5% HR/FB.
His slider also became an effective secondary pitch for the first time in his career, throwing it a career-high 28.4% of the time. Opposing hitters batted .174 and slugged .290 against his slider in 2022, and it was De Los Santos’ top putaway pitch by season’s end.
It’s difficult to overstate his importance to the Guardians’ bullpen this season, and it’s important to remember that he didn’t even make the Opening Day roster. De Los Santos started the season in Triple-A Columbus and didn’t appear in Cleveland until late April.
He tied with James Karinchak for fourth in the Guardians bullpen in WAR (1.0) and pitched the sixth-most innings (53.1) of any Cleveland reliever. De Los Santos arrived in Cleveland as Eli Morgan’s effectiveness was waning and before James Karinchak and Sam Hentges surged to the top of the bullpen in the second half of the season. He was a stabilizing presence in a bullpen that was desperately searching for reliable arms outside of Emmanuel Clase.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the immaculate inning he recorded against the Tampa Bay Rays on September 27, 2022, perhaps the cherry on top of his outstanding season.
Now we’ll see if De Los Santos can sustain this success.
Re: Articles
9206Quite a headline:
Nick Sandlin was pretty good in 2022, but how long will it last?
Will he be a shutdown arm forever? Probably not, but 2022 was good for Nick Sandlin.
By most metrics, the Guardians had an elite bullpen in 2022. They logged the fifth-lowest ERA and FIP, second-lowest expected FIP, fourth-highest fWAR and ground ball rate, and seventh-hights in strand rate. They were in a bulwark that made it a bit easier on a continually dented starting rotation, and for most of the season, Nick Sandlin was a key to that sturdiness.
Sandlin didn’t show off the power and flash of Clase, the giganticness of Sam Hentges, or the stoic confidence of Trevor Stephan, but with his myriad offerings, funky arm angle, and his ability to silence righties and at least manage against lefties, he was a valuable piece and another name from nowhere for Francona to go to. It was a great year. Was it real?
First, the good. Sandlin posted a 2.25 ERA over 44.2 innings in 2022, respectively a career-low and high. Sure, it’s over all of two seasons, but it’s good to see growth as Cleveland builds whatever we consider a Death Star in Ohio. On top of that, he discovered a splitter this year that he’s able to use on right-handed hitters, and they hit .083 off it with a matching slugging percentage. It likely had something to do with the near-14 point increase in his grounder rate to 55.4%.
So that all sounds nice, right? Grounders are good with a near-elite infield defense, and being able to develop a new pitch that can get guys out is just as valuable. The big worry here is, what’s happened between 2021 and 2022 with some of the leading indicators for pitchers. Behind the scenes Sandlin is trending in the wrong direction in some key metrics:
Year FIP Sinker Velo(mph) Sinker Exit Velo(mph) K% BB% Hard Hit%
2021 2.96 94.5 87.4 34.0 12.1 28.2
2022 3.68 93.5 92.0 33.8 13.3 37.5
Nick Sandlin 2021 vs 2022 leading indicators
Amid all this, we saw his BABIP drop from .271 in 2021 to .227 in 2022. Some of this can be blamed on his boosting his grounder rate while Amed Rosario turned into a plus defender and Andrés Giménez won a Gold Glove, which would help explain the dazzling ERA. Looking forward though, with shifts being banned Sandlin is going to have a lot less defensive teeth to pitch into, and along with his diminished velocity and swing-and-missness, you have to worry about 2023.
That’s the thing about relievers. Some just howl at you that they’ll be good. Clase is a good example of that, and you could see someone like Hentges making a leap once he figured some things out. Raw physical tools are easy to project and more than anything else velocity speaks the loudest. Sandlin, at 5 foot 11 and 175, with his collection of pitches, never looked like that. 2022 could be his 2014 Marc Rzepczynski/2015 Jeff Manship/2017 Zach McAllister lucky stretch that gets exposed when the ball starts going the wrong way. Which is fine, he was still an important piece for Cleveland. I mean, he didn’t allow a single run in August, and even when he “dropped off” in September he still only allowed three earned runs over nine innings. And one of those was a post-clinch hangover game, so who knows what to take away from that?
Will Sandlin be good next year? That’s a question that we don’t need to answer right now. Fact is, Cleveland has made a name for itself by finding these weird nobodies that end up shutting down the world for a few months. Not only did Sandlin not allow a run in August, he only allowed two runs and eight hits in 17 games from July 1 to Aug. 31. Whether that was real, or the slightly less effective September version, we’ll have to wait and see. He has a whole off-season to bolster that sinker velo and refine the other stuff. If it doesn’t work out, they’ll find someone else. For one year though, he was one head of a mighty hydra. Which is pretty cool.
Nick Sandlin was pretty good in 2022, but how long will it last?
Will he be a shutdown arm forever? Probably not, but 2022 was good for Nick Sandlin.
By most metrics, the Guardians had an elite bullpen in 2022. They logged the fifth-lowest ERA and FIP, second-lowest expected FIP, fourth-highest fWAR and ground ball rate, and seventh-hights in strand rate. They were in a bulwark that made it a bit easier on a continually dented starting rotation, and for most of the season, Nick Sandlin was a key to that sturdiness.
Sandlin didn’t show off the power and flash of Clase, the giganticness of Sam Hentges, or the stoic confidence of Trevor Stephan, but with his myriad offerings, funky arm angle, and his ability to silence righties and at least manage against lefties, he was a valuable piece and another name from nowhere for Francona to go to. It was a great year. Was it real?
First, the good. Sandlin posted a 2.25 ERA over 44.2 innings in 2022, respectively a career-low and high. Sure, it’s over all of two seasons, but it’s good to see growth as Cleveland builds whatever we consider a Death Star in Ohio. On top of that, he discovered a splitter this year that he’s able to use on right-handed hitters, and they hit .083 off it with a matching slugging percentage. It likely had something to do with the near-14 point increase in his grounder rate to 55.4%.
So that all sounds nice, right? Grounders are good with a near-elite infield defense, and being able to develop a new pitch that can get guys out is just as valuable. The big worry here is, what’s happened between 2021 and 2022 with some of the leading indicators for pitchers. Behind the scenes Sandlin is trending in the wrong direction in some key metrics:
Year FIP Sinker Velo(mph) Sinker Exit Velo(mph) K% BB% Hard Hit%
2021 2.96 94.5 87.4 34.0 12.1 28.2
2022 3.68 93.5 92.0 33.8 13.3 37.5
Nick Sandlin 2021 vs 2022 leading indicators
Amid all this, we saw his BABIP drop from .271 in 2021 to .227 in 2022. Some of this can be blamed on his boosting his grounder rate while Amed Rosario turned into a plus defender and Andrés Giménez won a Gold Glove, which would help explain the dazzling ERA. Looking forward though, with shifts being banned Sandlin is going to have a lot less defensive teeth to pitch into, and along with his diminished velocity and swing-and-missness, you have to worry about 2023.
That’s the thing about relievers. Some just howl at you that they’ll be good. Clase is a good example of that, and you could see someone like Hentges making a leap once he figured some things out. Raw physical tools are easy to project and more than anything else velocity speaks the loudest. Sandlin, at 5 foot 11 and 175, with his collection of pitches, never looked like that. 2022 could be his 2014 Marc Rzepczynski/2015 Jeff Manship/2017 Zach McAllister lucky stretch that gets exposed when the ball starts going the wrong way. Which is fine, he was still an important piece for Cleveland. I mean, he didn’t allow a single run in August, and even when he “dropped off” in September he still only allowed three earned runs over nine innings. And one of those was a post-clinch hangover game, so who knows what to take away from that?
Will Sandlin be good next year? That’s a question that we don’t need to answer right now. Fact is, Cleveland has made a name for itself by finding these weird nobodies that end up shutting down the world for a few months. Not only did Sandlin not allow a run in August, he only allowed two runs and eight hits in 17 games from July 1 to Aug. 31. Whether that was real, or the slightly less effective September version, we’ll have to wait and see. He has a whole off-season to bolster that sinker velo and refine the other stuff. If it doesn’t work out, they’ll find someone else. For one year though, he was one head of a mighty hydra. Which is pretty cool.
Re: Articles
9207James Karinchak: Good again?
Only James Karinchak could carry a 4.85 BB/9 and still somehow be a dominant reliever
The list of fun surprises that the Cleveland Guardians got to enjoy this summer is extensive, from breakout offensive performances to aces returning to form. One of the most important was just how solid the bullpen was. At times throughout the year, it felt like they could go five and six deep depending on how people were performing, and the team got to add new arms throughout the year that kept that rolling. One of those arms was a man that most of us thought was cooked: James Karinchak.
A year after he was basically useless on the mound in the wake of the sticky stuff crackdown, Karinchak had maybe his best season ever. You wonder where it will all go, but for a few months there he was just about unhittable.
I think it’s fair to say that a lot of the fan base — and maybe even the club itself — had all but washed their hands of Karinchak after a dreadful 2021 season. His strikeout rate had tanked from 48.6% to 33.2%, and he gave up nine home runs, three times more than he’s allowed in the rest of his career combined. Nothing seemed to work, he seemed to just stink, and there seemed to be a good reason for it too. He likely relied on Spider Tack or some other thing like so many other pitchers got used to over the last few years to boost spin rate, and with the league shutting that down he seemed to be all but done. Throwing 96 is great. But if you don’t have an out pitch, it doesn’t have any movement, and you can’t get it over the plate half the time, you don’t have long for the league. That was what happened with Karainchak — his spin rates plummeted as did his effectiveness once umpires started checking hands in June, and he found himself out of the mix soon after.
And when he returned this year on July 4, you’d be right to think that it was just more of the same. He was just going to be a body for Terry Francona to throw out there in mop-up situations. In his first game out he struck out three, but he also allowed two hits and a run. Two days later he gave up another hit and walked a guy, allowed two runs to cross, and didn’t log a single strikeout. In the parlance of the game, that’s a pretty blatant strike two for his 2022 campaign.
Then, he just decided to stop allowing runs.
Over his next 23 appearances spanning 24.2 innings, he struck out 41, walked 14 (it was still a problem but who cares at this point), gave up nine hits, and did not allow a single run to score. His spin rates certainly showed back up, leaping from an August 2021 low of 2,171 RPM back up to pre-no sticky stuff 2,377 RPM in September. Pretty weird, almost magic. Most of July and all of August didn’t see Karinchak allow anyone to score, just a whole lot of this:
The hype levels just reached critical mass, and we were all extremely here for it. And look, I get that this rubs other teams the wrong way. It’d piss me off if a Tigers reliever walked off doing this. Maybe that was part of why Rocco Baldelli decided to make the umpires caress Karinchak’s hair this summer. Between the spin rates spiking and the insanity that naturally egged on the opposition, it makes sense to me.
Not that anyone in Cleveland cared. That’s the magic of fandom, good and bad. It’s about results and entertainment, and he brought both this year. He’s a big doofus, and about as close to pure energy manifesting into a human being as you can get without shattering the laws of physics. Evidently, we’re getting better at loving this, though whenever he goes nuts the “wraparound shades in the front seat of a Dodge Ram” brigade is out in full force. But it’s a delight to see him really seizing the spotlight when he gets the chance. Relief pitching is all about taking hold of the moment and channeling that energy into results. How many closers and big-time bullpen arms are calm and collected? It seems to me like some level of psychopathy is required for the job. And Karinchak, at least this year, took full hold of that and made it work.
What more can you say about a really good year? It was only 39 innings of work, you wonder how he’d hold up if you gave him the usual 60-70, but it’s not wrong to think that he’s solidified his place in the pen for the foreseeable future. How he works in the clubhouse with Francona there, I’m not sure, and next year with the pitch clock his little routine is going to need some trimming, but that’s a next-year problem.
Only James Karinchak could carry a 4.85 BB/9 and still somehow be a dominant reliever
The list of fun surprises that the Cleveland Guardians got to enjoy this summer is extensive, from breakout offensive performances to aces returning to form. One of the most important was just how solid the bullpen was. At times throughout the year, it felt like they could go five and six deep depending on how people were performing, and the team got to add new arms throughout the year that kept that rolling. One of those arms was a man that most of us thought was cooked: James Karinchak.
A year after he was basically useless on the mound in the wake of the sticky stuff crackdown, Karinchak had maybe his best season ever. You wonder where it will all go, but for a few months there he was just about unhittable.
I think it’s fair to say that a lot of the fan base — and maybe even the club itself — had all but washed their hands of Karinchak after a dreadful 2021 season. His strikeout rate had tanked from 48.6% to 33.2%, and he gave up nine home runs, three times more than he’s allowed in the rest of his career combined. Nothing seemed to work, he seemed to just stink, and there seemed to be a good reason for it too. He likely relied on Spider Tack or some other thing like so many other pitchers got used to over the last few years to boost spin rate, and with the league shutting that down he seemed to be all but done. Throwing 96 is great. But if you don’t have an out pitch, it doesn’t have any movement, and you can’t get it over the plate half the time, you don’t have long for the league. That was what happened with Karainchak — his spin rates plummeted as did his effectiveness once umpires started checking hands in June, and he found himself out of the mix soon after.
And when he returned this year on July 4, you’d be right to think that it was just more of the same. He was just going to be a body for Terry Francona to throw out there in mop-up situations. In his first game out he struck out three, but he also allowed two hits and a run. Two days later he gave up another hit and walked a guy, allowed two runs to cross, and didn’t log a single strikeout. In the parlance of the game, that’s a pretty blatant strike two for his 2022 campaign.
Then, he just decided to stop allowing runs.
Over his next 23 appearances spanning 24.2 innings, he struck out 41, walked 14 (it was still a problem but who cares at this point), gave up nine hits, and did not allow a single run to score. His spin rates certainly showed back up, leaping from an August 2021 low of 2,171 RPM back up to pre-no sticky stuff 2,377 RPM in September. Pretty weird, almost magic. Most of July and all of August didn’t see Karinchak allow anyone to score, just a whole lot of this:
The hype levels just reached critical mass, and we were all extremely here for it. And look, I get that this rubs other teams the wrong way. It’d piss me off if a Tigers reliever walked off doing this. Maybe that was part of why Rocco Baldelli decided to make the umpires caress Karinchak’s hair this summer. Between the spin rates spiking and the insanity that naturally egged on the opposition, it makes sense to me.
Not that anyone in Cleveland cared. That’s the magic of fandom, good and bad. It’s about results and entertainment, and he brought both this year. He’s a big doofus, and about as close to pure energy manifesting into a human being as you can get without shattering the laws of physics. Evidently, we’re getting better at loving this, though whenever he goes nuts the “wraparound shades in the front seat of a Dodge Ram” brigade is out in full force. But it’s a delight to see him really seizing the spotlight when he gets the chance. Relief pitching is all about taking hold of the moment and channeling that energy into results. How many closers and big-time bullpen arms are calm and collected? It seems to me like some level of psychopathy is required for the job. And Karinchak, at least this year, took full hold of that and made it work.
What more can you say about a really good year? It was only 39 innings of work, you wonder how he’d hold up if you gave him the usual 60-70, but it’s not wrong to think that he’s solidified his place in the pen for the foreseeable future. How he works in the clubhouse with Francona there, I’m not sure, and next year with the pitch clock his little routine is going to need some trimming, but that’s a next-year problem.
Re: Articles
9208Will Benson’s 2022 season is difficult to judge
He has the tools to succeed, but it’s still unclear if he can use them all
It is impossible to give any real grade to Will Benson’s debut season in Cleveland.
In 61 plate appearances over 28 games after he was called up on Aug. 1, Benson hit .182/.250/.200 with one extra-base hit, 19 strikeouts, and just three walks. He had more than one plate appearance in 16 of those games, started 15 of them, and got a full slate of at-bats in just 10.
Yes, the Guardians were churning through rookies and just working to stay afloat half the time, and yes, finding space for yet another athletic outfielder was tough with Steven Kwan sealing up left, Myles Straw earning a Gold Glove in center and Oscar Gonzalez looking pretty solid in right, but it still stinks they couldn’t find space for Benson. It was a year of what could have been as Cleveland works to figure out its supposed embarrassment of riches in the minors. To leave such a talent on the sidelines though, it’s just a bit sad.
Did you know that Benson was, by most metrics, the best hitter for the Columbus Clippers in 2022? Among those that weren’t rehabbing or got any real playing time (15 games or so) he led the team in OPS at .948, slugging at .522, OBP at .426(!), walk rate at 18.7%, home runs at 17, he was just behind Bo Naylor in at-bats per home run at 18.6, and the numbers just kind of go on like this. Adding to that, he’s like nine feet tall and runs like a gazelle. Baseball Savant places him in the 94th percentile in sprint speed, which places him tied for second with Straw. On a team of athletes he had all the raw tools, and judging from the numbers he posted in Columbus, he had some of the polish you’re looking for, too. Plus he can make a nice catch at the wall.
He has a handful of nice little catches like this. There was a game against the Orioles he started in center field, and he probably robbed like four extra-base hits because of range and his massiveness.
He was barely able to be judged in the majors, and you have to wonder what the heck the point was of having him on the big club aside from having fresh bodies. It’s good for a young guy to get the experience of being on the big club, and to see what kind of leap he needs to take to get ready for true major league pitching, but considering how excellent he was in Columbus, was there really no way to give him more of a chance?
What probably hurt him the most, and maybe got in the way of the grander plan of the Guardians’ brass, is that Oscar Gonzalez just didn’t slow down. Gonzalez went through a slump or two, but then kept getting timely hits and started finding more and more power as the season wore on. It was fine for the team — they kept winning and he made himself a postseason hero and everyone loves him — but it wasn’t without its casualties. His batting profile, whether in the majors or minors, does not speak to a long-term successful career, though unicorns do exist. Shoot, I wrote about just that thing, how a good contact guy that hits it hard, sprays it around and can squeak out a walk now and again can still be a useful player. They do exist. Amed Rosario is literally on this team, and Tim Anderson is right there in Chicago. But these seem more like exceptions that prove the rule rather than the rule itself.
So with Benson, you just look around for any kind of slot for him. Everything he showed in Columbus speaks to a much more conventionally successful player, much lower risk with rewards in the 30ish dinger, center-of-the-offense type of player. At least in theory. He shouldn’t be a DH, he’s too athletic and that would be a waste of the value he could provide defensively. If Gonzalez holds onto right field going into 2023, maybe Francona can fall out of love with playing batless wonders at first so much. Who knows. He needs his shot, though.
Maybe we’ll forget about Benson next year, and some new young gun will show up. The big names that are boasted about in the minors are still making their way up, but it still seems a bit like malpractice to take a guy who came into his own in Triple-A this year and just shunt him aside, especially with all his raw tools and seeming polish. For as much as I like Kwan and Will Brennan and other guys like that, having a team full of undersized gap-to-gap hitters is not a recipe for the eventual title. Seeing Yordan Álvarez hit a ball a quarter mile to effectively seal the 2022 World Series or the range of huge dudes on the Phillies, or just with Aaron Judge or Bryce Harper mashing, it shows an archetype. Even Josh Bell is the kind of player that you can see in Benson if we’re not shooting so far into the stars.
There’s a need for big guys who clobber on this team. It was the backbone of the mid-90s, and somewhat the mid-2000s. That’s not the Cleveland Way anymore — they want to do it with all athletes that bring value in every way possible — but luckily he’s no leadfoot either. He’s simply one of the most athletic players on a team full of multi-tool wonders.
The Guardians might have forced the contention window open a bit earlier than planned, but I’d like to write this article next year about how Benson got his shot and flourished.
He has the tools to succeed, but it’s still unclear if he can use them all
It is impossible to give any real grade to Will Benson’s debut season in Cleveland.
In 61 plate appearances over 28 games after he was called up on Aug. 1, Benson hit .182/.250/.200 with one extra-base hit, 19 strikeouts, and just three walks. He had more than one plate appearance in 16 of those games, started 15 of them, and got a full slate of at-bats in just 10.
Yes, the Guardians were churning through rookies and just working to stay afloat half the time, and yes, finding space for yet another athletic outfielder was tough with Steven Kwan sealing up left, Myles Straw earning a Gold Glove in center and Oscar Gonzalez looking pretty solid in right, but it still stinks they couldn’t find space for Benson. It was a year of what could have been as Cleveland works to figure out its supposed embarrassment of riches in the minors. To leave such a talent on the sidelines though, it’s just a bit sad.
Did you know that Benson was, by most metrics, the best hitter for the Columbus Clippers in 2022? Among those that weren’t rehabbing or got any real playing time (15 games or so) he led the team in OPS at .948, slugging at .522, OBP at .426(!), walk rate at 18.7%, home runs at 17, he was just behind Bo Naylor in at-bats per home run at 18.6, and the numbers just kind of go on like this. Adding to that, he’s like nine feet tall and runs like a gazelle. Baseball Savant places him in the 94th percentile in sprint speed, which places him tied for second with Straw. On a team of athletes he had all the raw tools, and judging from the numbers he posted in Columbus, he had some of the polish you’re looking for, too. Plus he can make a nice catch at the wall.
He has a handful of nice little catches like this. There was a game against the Orioles he started in center field, and he probably robbed like four extra-base hits because of range and his massiveness.
He was barely able to be judged in the majors, and you have to wonder what the heck the point was of having him on the big club aside from having fresh bodies. It’s good for a young guy to get the experience of being on the big club, and to see what kind of leap he needs to take to get ready for true major league pitching, but considering how excellent he was in Columbus, was there really no way to give him more of a chance?
What probably hurt him the most, and maybe got in the way of the grander plan of the Guardians’ brass, is that Oscar Gonzalez just didn’t slow down. Gonzalez went through a slump or two, but then kept getting timely hits and started finding more and more power as the season wore on. It was fine for the team — they kept winning and he made himself a postseason hero and everyone loves him — but it wasn’t without its casualties. His batting profile, whether in the majors or minors, does not speak to a long-term successful career, though unicorns do exist. Shoot, I wrote about just that thing, how a good contact guy that hits it hard, sprays it around and can squeak out a walk now and again can still be a useful player. They do exist. Amed Rosario is literally on this team, and Tim Anderson is right there in Chicago. But these seem more like exceptions that prove the rule rather than the rule itself.
So with Benson, you just look around for any kind of slot for him. Everything he showed in Columbus speaks to a much more conventionally successful player, much lower risk with rewards in the 30ish dinger, center-of-the-offense type of player. At least in theory. He shouldn’t be a DH, he’s too athletic and that would be a waste of the value he could provide defensively. If Gonzalez holds onto right field going into 2023, maybe Francona can fall out of love with playing batless wonders at first so much. Who knows. He needs his shot, though.
Maybe we’ll forget about Benson next year, and some new young gun will show up. The big names that are boasted about in the minors are still making their way up, but it still seems a bit like malpractice to take a guy who came into his own in Triple-A this year and just shunt him aside, especially with all his raw tools and seeming polish. For as much as I like Kwan and Will Brennan and other guys like that, having a team full of undersized gap-to-gap hitters is not a recipe for the eventual title. Seeing Yordan Álvarez hit a ball a quarter mile to effectively seal the 2022 World Series or the range of huge dudes on the Phillies, or just with Aaron Judge or Bryce Harper mashing, it shows an archetype. Even Josh Bell is the kind of player that you can see in Benson if we’re not shooting so far into the stars.
There’s a need for big guys who clobber on this team. It was the backbone of the mid-90s, and somewhat the mid-2000s. That’s not the Cleveland Way anymore — they want to do it with all athletes that bring value in every way possible — but luckily he’s no leadfoot either. He’s simply one of the most athletic players on a team full of multi-tool wonders.
The Guardians might have forced the contention window open a bit earlier than planned, but I’d like to write this article next year about how Benson got his shot and flourished.
Re: Articles
9209Cal Quantrill is the right pitcher in the right place at the right time
There is no better place for Cal Quantrill to flourish than right here, right now
There’s nothing flashy about Cal Quantrill; he’s nobody’s Statcast darling, and his pitches aren’t particularly nasty. He just goes out night after night and prevents runs from crossing the plate more often than not. Every pitching staff needs a couple of those guys, and the Guardians have a good one in Cal.
This season was Quantrill’s first as a full-time starter, having started 22 of his 40 appearances last year and 43 of his 81 appearances since he debuted with the Padres in 2019. This year, though, he stayed healthy with a full 32 starts and career-high 186.1 innings pitched. Although he rarely blanked opponents (just four shutouts), he rarely imploded. His only starts allowing more than four runs came against the Red Sox on July 27 (5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 SO, 2 BB) and on June 18 against the Dodgers (5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 SO, 1 BB). Other than that, Terry Francona and company could expect a solid five or six innings of work every time his turn came around in the rotation.
Quantrill did this despite a whiff rate among the worst in baseball (5th percentile) and an equally uninspiring strikeout rate (11th percentile), according to Baseball Savant. He didn’t even have the kind of weak contact you would expect for a guy who succeeds without overpowering stuff — his hard-hit rate against ranked in the 69th percentile and his expected slugging against was in the 26th percentile. He also wasn’t a particularly ground ball-heavy pitcher either, ranking 23rd out of a qualified 45 pitchers in MLB with a 42.1% ground ball rate.
In summary, opponents didn’t have trouble making contact, hit the ball hard, and hit the ball in the air. How in the world did this guy finish with a 3.38 ERA? A lot of it comes down to how effectively he was used and what was around him.
Full credit to Quantrill for doing his part and executing what he was asked every single night, but Terry Francona also deserves huge props for limiting how often opposing batters saw Quantrill more than twice in a game. By avoiding the dreaded Third Time Through the Order, opponents couldn’t get fully dialed into Quantrill’s pedestrian stuff. He had enough with his sinker/cutter/change combination to get batters to fly out to his stellar defensive outfield but was almost always pulled after the sixth inning. He only faced 27 or more batters in five of his 32 starts — and he still finished with 15 pitcher wins to five losses. The fact that 15 of the leads he held onto stayed the course is a testament to the Guardians bullpen, as well.
o put it another way — Cal Quantrill is Joe Flacco with the Ravens at his peak. If you squint, there’s something really good there, but nothing quite elite. No rocket arm, no scrambling ability, and no legendary accuracy. But put him in the perfect situation with the right manager/coach guiding him along with a stellar defense to cover any mistakes, and he’ll consistently find ways to put up good performances and help you reach the postseason. Quantrill is basically a system quarterback, but a very, very good one.
There is no better place for Cal Quantrill to flourish than right here, right now
There’s nothing flashy about Cal Quantrill; he’s nobody’s Statcast darling, and his pitches aren’t particularly nasty. He just goes out night after night and prevents runs from crossing the plate more often than not. Every pitching staff needs a couple of those guys, and the Guardians have a good one in Cal.
This season was Quantrill’s first as a full-time starter, having started 22 of his 40 appearances last year and 43 of his 81 appearances since he debuted with the Padres in 2019. This year, though, he stayed healthy with a full 32 starts and career-high 186.1 innings pitched. Although he rarely blanked opponents (just four shutouts), he rarely imploded. His only starts allowing more than four runs came against the Red Sox on July 27 (5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 SO, 2 BB) and on June 18 against the Dodgers (5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 SO, 1 BB). Other than that, Terry Francona and company could expect a solid five or six innings of work every time his turn came around in the rotation.
Quantrill did this despite a whiff rate among the worst in baseball (5th percentile) and an equally uninspiring strikeout rate (11th percentile), according to Baseball Savant. He didn’t even have the kind of weak contact you would expect for a guy who succeeds without overpowering stuff — his hard-hit rate against ranked in the 69th percentile and his expected slugging against was in the 26th percentile. He also wasn’t a particularly ground ball-heavy pitcher either, ranking 23rd out of a qualified 45 pitchers in MLB with a 42.1% ground ball rate.
In summary, opponents didn’t have trouble making contact, hit the ball hard, and hit the ball in the air. How in the world did this guy finish with a 3.38 ERA? A lot of it comes down to how effectively he was used and what was around him.
Full credit to Quantrill for doing his part and executing what he was asked every single night, but Terry Francona also deserves huge props for limiting how often opposing batters saw Quantrill more than twice in a game. By avoiding the dreaded Third Time Through the Order, opponents couldn’t get fully dialed into Quantrill’s pedestrian stuff. He had enough with his sinker/cutter/change combination to get batters to fly out to his stellar defensive outfield but was almost always pulled after the sixth inning. He only faced 27 or more batters in five of his 32 starts — and he still finished with 15 pitcher wins to five losses. The fact that 15 of the leads he held onto stayed the course is a testament to the Guardians bullpen, as well.
o put it another way — Cal Quantrill is Joe Flacco with the Ravens at his peak. If you squint, there’s something really good there, but nothing quite elite. No rocket arm, no scrambling ability, and no legendary accuracy. But put him in the perfect situation with the right manager/coach guiding him along with a stellar defense to cover any mistakes, and he’ll consistently find ways to put up good performances and help you reach the postseason. Quantrill is basically a system quarterback, but a very, very good one.
Re: Articles
9210Sam Hentges’ incredible 2022 season is a good sign for the future
The Cleveland Pitching Factory is alive and well
This goes on to discuss Gaddis and Pilkington and Curry too
Sam Hentges had a tremendous 2022 season. On most teams, he would have been at worst the second-best bullpen arm, and some lower-rung clubs might have even tried to slot him in as a closer. With a 2.32 ERA backed up by a 2.48 FIP, his striking out 29.8% of batters with a 60.4% grounder rate, the list of superlatives for Hentges just keeps going.
Several outlets wrote about Hentges’ growth several times this year. In fact, I even wrote about how he did it. So we don’t need to recap that, or his tremendous leap from challenging for Worst Reliever in Baseball. More than anything else, Hentges’ ascendence speaks to the Cleveland Pitching Factory, still alive and well.
I don’t know a lot about what actual, modern pitching development looks like behind closed doors. There are articles from groups like Driveline, there are pieces about pitch design and “throwing with intent” to get your velocity, and all the weighted ball training. There’s likely more in the great black box that pro development locks away from us, but whatever it was it seemed to have worked for Hentges. He threw harder this year — velocity was up nearly two mph on average — and he was, again, lightyears more effective.
It’s good to see and great for him in his career prospects, but it’s also important for what we saw this year with the rest of the pitching staff. The Guardians cycled through a seemingly unending list of near-faceless pitchers, both relievers and starters, to fill the holes left by injury and ineffectiveness throughout the year. Twenty-five different actual pitchers took the ball at least once this year (along with Ernie Clement and Sandy León) with a wide range of results. From Hentges or Clase being absolute killers to Hunter Gaddis throwing batting practice, we got a taste of everything. And it’s that last guy, and those like him, that we should be excited for.
Between Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, Kirk McCarty, and Konnor Pilkington, Cleveland got 112.2 innings of 4.55 ERA pitching from the bullpen. Not every pitcher or inning was created equal in this — Gaddis averaged more than two runs allowed per inning, while Pilkinton gave up 25 in 58 innings — but suffice to say, it’s not what you want out of your relief corps.
As we saw just the last couple of weeks with the Astros, having a mighty bullpen that can go six and seven guys deep can paper over any issues that you might have. It’s rare, but not impossible. The Astros are about as flawless as you can get, but again, part of that is their pitching development. Notably, famously, that’s where Cleveland succeeds, too. So when we saw pitchers like Curry or McCarty, or any of those other dudes that just seemed to wander in, and marvel at the raw stuff or physical skills, you have to think that there’s something in the offing. At least from some of these guys.
This, again, is why what Hentges did is both remarkable and encouraging. We should have grown to expect it, especially with a guy like that who just looks the part even if the 2021 results were trash. That’s why I’m still such a Gaddis fan. He’s massive already, and his perceived velocity is going to be much more than the 94 or so that he was hitting this year because he’s in the 88th percentile in pitch extension. In effect, he’s pitching off a mound 50 feet from the plate, or thereabouts. Or Curry with a solid fastball and a couple of secondary pitches in his slider and change with great velo and some solid movement (his change for instance has 18% better vertical break than an average and 24% better horizontal break) that make you think there’s something to build off. The list goes on like this. These guys all showed something, and that’s why the future is so bright for this team.
This is obviously a lot of wish-casting and blind hope. But again, Hentges stunk last year. So did Trevor Stephan for that matter, and he was if anything better than Hentges. Nick Sandlin wasn’t terrible, but he was nigh unhittable this year even with his walk issues. Is Cody Morris even real? He evidently logged a 2.28 ERA over 23.2 innings this year. This is what I’m talking about, this is what Hentges and these other guys represent with this tremendous year they had. It feels like it took a few years to get things fully cranking with the relief arms, but Hentges and some other pitchers aren’t just weird Jeff Manship or Dan Otero-style outliers.
They’re the vanguard of what’s going to be trouble for hitters for the foreseeable future. Hentges was wonderful this year and is a beautiful vision of the future. Plus, who doesn’t love this whole “huge dude” bullpen plan they have a chance for? If Gaddis can iron some things out we’re entering a wonderful new world, one that we just saw nearly work for the Phillies with their lineup. What I’m saying is — let’s go himbo bullpen!
The Cleveland Pitching Factory is alive and well
This goes on to discuss Gaddis and Pilkington and Curry too
Sam Hentges had a tremendous 2022 season. On most teams, he would have been at worst the second-best bullpen arm, and some lower-rung clubs might have even tried to slot him in as a closer. With a 2.32 ERA backed up by a 2.48 FIP, his striking out 29.8% of batters with a 60.4% grounder rate, the list of superlatives for Hentges just keeps going.
Several outlets wrote about Hentges’ growth several times this year. In fact, I even wrote about how he did it. So we don’t need to recap that, or his tremendous leap from challenging for Worst Reliever in Baseball. More than anything else, Hentges’ ascendence speaks to the Cleveland Pitching Factory, still alive and well.
I don’t know a lot about what actual, modern pitching development looks like behind closed doors. There are articles from groups like Driveline, there are pieces about pitch design and “throwing with intent” to get your velocity, and all the weighted ball training. There’s likely more in the great black box that pro development locks away from us, but whatever it was it seemed to have worked for Hentges. He threw harder this year — velocity was up nearly two mph on average — and he was, again, lightyears more effective.
It’s good to see and great for him in his career prospects, but it’s also important for what we saw this year with the rest of the pitching staff. The Guardians cycled through a seemingly unending list of near-faceless pitchers, both relievers and starters, to fill the holes left by injury and ineffectiveness throughout the year. Twenty-five different actual pitchers took the ball at least once this year (along with Ernie Clement and Sandy León) with a wide range of results. From Hentges or Clase being absolute killers to Hunter Gaddis throwing batting practice, we got a taste of everything. And it’s that last guy, and those like him, that we should be excited for.
Between Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, Kirk McCarty, and Konnor Pilkington, Cleveland got 112.2 innings of 4.55 ERA pitching from the bullpen. Not every pitcher or inning was created equal in this — Gaddis averaged more than two runs allowed per inning, while Pilkinton gave up 25 in 58 innings — but suffice to say, it’s not what you want out of your relief corps.
As we saw just the last couple of weeks with the Astros, having a mighty bullpen that can go six and seven guys deep can paper over any issues that you might have. It’s rare, but not impossible. The Astros are about as flawless as you can get, but again, part of that is their pitching development. Notably, famously, that’s where Cleveland succeeds, too. So when we saw pitchers like Curry or McCarty, or any of those other dudes that just seemed to wander in, and marvel at the raw stuff or physical skills, you have to think that there’s something in the offing. At least from some of these guys.
This, again, is why what Hentges did is both remarkable and encouraging. We should have grown to expect it, especially with a guy like that who just looks the part even if the 2021 results were trash. That’s why I’m still such a Gaddis fan. He’s massive already, and his perceived velocity is going to be much more than the 94 or so that he was hitting this year because he’s in the 88th percentile in pitch extension. In effect, he’s pitching off a mound 50 feet from the plate, or thereabouts. Or Curry with a solid fastball and a couple of secondary pitches in his slider and change with great velo and some solid movement (his change for instance has 18% better vertical break than an average and 24% better horizontal break) that make you think there’s something to build off. The list goes on like this. These guys all showed something, and that’s why the future is so bright for this team.
This is obviously a lot of wish-casting and blind hope. But again, Hentges stunk last year. So did Trevor Stephan for that matter, and he was if anything better than Hentges. Nick Sandlin wasn’t terrible, but he was nigh unhittable this year even with his walk issues. Is Cody Morris even real? He evidently logged a 2.28 ERA over 23.2 innings this year. This is what I’m talking about, this is what Hentges and these other guys represent with this tremendous year they had. It feels like it took a few years to get things fully cranking with the relief arms, but Hentges and some other pitchers aren’t just weird Jeff Manship or Dan Otero-style outliers.
They’re the vanguard of what’s going to be trouble for hitters for the foreseeable future. Hentges was wonderful this year and is a beautiful vision of the future. Plus, who doesn’t love this whole “huge dude” bullpen plan they have a chance for? If Gaddis can iron some things out we’re entering a wonderful new world, one that we just saw nearly work for the Phillies with their lineup. What I’m saying is — let’s go himbo bullpen!