Re: Articles
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:41 pm
by TFIR
Top 60 MLB prospects: Keith Law’s updated rankings following the Juan Soto trade
Keith Law
This is my midpoint check-in on the best prospects still in the minors, including players drafted two weeks ago who have signed by now but have not debuted in pro ball. As with my offseason list, I’m focused more on ceiling than floor, but I do consider the player’s probability of reaching his ceiling or something close to it. I say within these capsules that the prospect I consider the highest-ceiling guy on the list is not actually at No. 1. Please keep in mind that my offseason top-100 ranking is a month-long process, while this ranking is more of a week-plus process, and has some more built-in recency bias than the rankings I run every February.
Note that this list only includes players currently in the minor leagues who retain rookie eligibility. These are not the same criteria I use for offseason lists, where I only go by rookie eligibility regardless of roster status, since there is no active 26-man roster in the winter. Spencer Torkelson isn’t here because he exceeded the limits for rookie eligibility, Shane Baz isn’t here because he’s on the major-league roster (and injured list, unfortunately), and Brayan Bello isn’t here because he’s also on the major-league roster at this writing.
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous ranking: No. 16
Carroll slid to the 16th pick in the 2019 draft — he was fourth on my final Big Board — and had a great start to his pro career that summer before losing the next two years to the pandemic and a shoulder injury he suffered after playing just seven games in 2021. The D-Backs, however, sent him right to Double A this year, trusting in the 21-year-old’s exceptional makeup. He’s mashed both there and in Triple A, with a .312/.440/.647 composite line, 20 homers, eight triples and 25 steals in 28 attempts. He’s an 80 runner underway who can play plus defense in center, makes a ton of hard contact and has plus power, along with an incredible work ethic. The only reason I might pump the brakes on his hype is that both of his home parks this year are strong hitters’ environments, although he’s hit well on the road too. He looks like he’s going to be a superstar and should see the majors before the year is out.
Gunnar Henderson, 3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: No. 73
The O’s have split Henderson’s time in the field almost evenly between his two positions. While he’s at least a solid-average defender at short, he might end up a Gold Glover at third, and I think he’ll provide more value at the hot corner. He’s shown a huge capacity for making adjustments at the plate over his two full years in pro ball, especially against right-handed pitchers, whom he’s dominated so far this year. He’s still got some work to do against lefties. Since he reached Triple A, he’s been hitting the ball on the ground more, so he might not be ready for an imminent call-up, but he has huge upside on both sides of the ball and could be the Orioles’ best defensive player since Manny Machado.
Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Previous ranking: Unranked
My No. 8 Brewers prospect coming into the season is now their No. 1, as he skipped over the Arizona Complex League and went right to A-ball as an 18-year-old and started to hit for a lot of power, slugging .600 in Low A before a promotion in late July to High A. He’s added a little bit of a stride before he swings, getting his legs more involved, but it looks like a lot of the power just comes from his wrists. He’s at least a 70 runner and a no-doubt centerfielder who gets raves from scouts for his overall feel for the game and on-field demeanor.
Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: No. 13
Cartaya played just a month last year, all in Low A, before an injury ended his season. While that was a very good month indeed (.298/.409/.614), it was fair to question whether that was a meaningful sample. He’s done the same thing all year now, earning a promotion to High A, all at age 20, with 17 homers and a .408 OBP for the season. Scouts say he’s improved behind the plate enough that he’s clearly going to stay there, although he still needs some work coming out to catch the ball further from his body and streamlining his release on throws. It won’t matter much with this kind of power and OBP.
Gabriel Moreno, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Previous ranking: No. 6
There’s no real reason for Moreno to be on this list, when he should be in the majors — the Blue Jays optioned him because they activated Danny Jansen from the injured list and already have Alejandro Kirk in the midst of a huge breakout season. In almost any other organization, Moreno would be in the big leagues, as he played well in his brief stint with Toronto and doesn’t have much to learn in Triple A. At this writing, he’s had a hit in every game since the demotion, and continues to make a ton of contact. He’s hitting more groundballs this year than before, with less power, but even as an 8-to-12 homer guy with high OBPs and plus defense, including at least a 70 arm, he projects as a longtime regular who’ll make some All-Star teams.
Francisco Álvarez (Lauren Haak / Buffalo Bisons)
Francisco Álvarez, C, New York Mets
Previous ranking: No. 8
If you throw defense out, Álvarez is probably the best prospect in the minors — which is not to say he’s a bad defender, just that it costs him the top spot. He ranks second in the Double-A Eastern League in slugging at .558, although he was promoted earlier this month, and 13th in OBP, as one of the youngest players there at 20. He’s an adequate defender, but that’s probably it, and scouts have been harder on his receiving as he’s been catching better stuff. His bat will play anywhere, though, so he could come up and DH some this season and still help the club.
Jordan Walker, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Previous ranking: No. 30
Walker’s ascent through the minors has been astonishing. As one of the best pure athletes in the 2020 draft class, the main question everyone seemed to have was whether he was ready to hit. He’s continued to do so, hitting and drawing walks, making contact in Double A this year as a 20-year-old, and showing doubles power that I think will translate into a lot of home run power down the road. The main question now is his position, as he’s really big for third base and might still get bigger, so it’s a good thing his bat will profile just fine in right field.
Elly de la Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Previous ranking: No. 69
If we’re just going on upside, de la Cruz is the best prospect in the minors right now; he just carries more risk than some of the players ahead of him, stemming from the hit tool. De la Cruz is an incredible athlete, with 80 raw power and 80 running speed, lightning quick hands, and a 70 arm. He has the tools and agility to stay at shortstop, although he’s not consistent on defense and is going to be very big for the position. He does swing and miss too often, including on pitches in-zone, but that’s why he’s not at No. 1. There is a much lower probability for de la Cruz than the seven guys ahead of him, but his ceiling tops them all.
Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees
Previous ranking: No. 10
After a slow start in Double A, Volpe has resumed hitting like he did in 2021, with a .310/391/.583 line since the start of June and 19 steals. He’s at least a plus hitter with above-average power, and already passed his 2021 stolen total thanks to above-average speed and outstanding instincts on the bases. He’s a no-doubt shortstop who should end up a plus defender there. I think he’ll be in the majors by this time next year, soon enough to justify the Yankees’ decision to pass on the big free agent shortstops of last winter.
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous ranking: No. 31
There was a lot of talk last spring that Lawlar might be the best prospect in the draft class, but between his age (he turned 19 the week of the draft) and some small questions about his hit tool, he slid to the D-Backs at the sixth pick. After a shoulder injury in his second pro game ended his 2021 season, he went to Low A to start this year and hit .351/.447/.603 with 24 steals in 44 games before a promotion to High A last month. He did miss a month with a back injury, but health has been his only issue so far in pro ball.
Eury Pérez, RHP, Miami
Previous ranking: No. 64
Pérez has no business throwing strikes as easily as he does with the way he’s built and the way he pitches, and yet he does, all 6-foot-9 of him. Coming from a low slot that puts more life on his fastball, he’s up to 99 mph with a four-pitch mix that features a changeup that’s at least plus, maybe a 70, and a slider he just started throwing this year. The Marlins have been careful with his workload, so the 19-year-old hasn’t reached 90 pitches in any game, but so far he’s striking out over a third of opposing batters with just a 6 percent walk rate. He’s a No. 1 starter in the making.
Noelvi Marte, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Previous ranking: No. 11
The best prospect of the four heading back to the Reds for Luis Castillo, Marte got off to a slow start this year, but the big-bodied shortstop has been hitting the cover off the ball for the last six weeks, more than doubling his season home run total in that span while walking about as often as he strikes out. I think he’s going to outgrow shortstop, and he’s lost a little speed as he’s filled out even since last season, but he has the hands and arm to move to third. He’s already outpacing his offensive performance from last year and is still just 20 years old in High A.
Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
Previous ranking: No. 15
Luciano was off to a great start in High A when a lower back strain put his season on hold in mid-June, and he’s still on the injured list at this writing. He continued to hit for average and show power, returning to a level where he struggled last year and improving across the board. But for a guy who already projected to move off shortstop due to his frame, a back injury doesn’t boost his odds of staying there. His bat still projects to be an impact one at any position.
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: No. 14
Another player in a holding pattern due to injury, Rodriguez was dominating Triple A when he strained a lat muscle in early June, potentially ending his season even though the injury didn’t seem that severe. It’s a great sign that he moved to Triple A, where they see major-league baseball, and had no problem adjusting, continuing to work with an elite fastball that can touch 100 mph with more vertical and horizontal movement than the typical four-seamer. His secondary stuff isn’t quite as good, although they play up because hitters are so geared up to hit (or not hit, more likely) the fastball. The lost innings are a shame, as he could be in the big leagues improving his slider and changeup, but perhaps he’ll get that in the Fall League or elsewhere.
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox
Previous ranking: No. 18
Mayer was the fourth pick in last year’s draft, No. 1 on my final Big Board, and has hit well so far in Low A despite a wrist injury and some minor back soreness. He is showing patience, doubles power and speed while playing plus defense at shortstop. He’s had a bit more swing and miss than I anticipated, especially on stuff in the zone, although I’m less concerned seeing that in a 19-year-old making his full-season debut than I would for an older or more experienced player. As the doubles power — he’s second in his league in doubles so far — turns into more home run power, he’ll get toward that huge upside everyone saw in him in the draft.
Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Previous ranking: No. 82
Harrison is now third in the minors in strikeouts, doing so with far fewer batters faced than the two pitchers ahead of him, working with a wipeout slider, a 92-94 mph fastball with good ride and a solid-average changeup. The delivery is funky and should be hard to repeat, but he does so, consistently, and benefits from the deception it provides. As long as he stays healthy, he’s got No. 1 starter upside.
Henry Davis (Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
Henry Davis, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous ranking: No. 20
The first pick in last year’s draft has played well when he hasn’t been on the injured list, where he’s spent most of this season with a non-displaced fracture in his wrist. Prior to his most recent IL stint, he’d hit .269/.399/.483, mostly in High A, catching reasonably well with a low caught stealing rate, and he’s continued to be very hard to strike out. This might be something of a lost year for Davis if the wrist issue lingers, and he might not have his usual power or strength even if he returns, but he did show enough to keep his standing as a potential All-Star at catcher.
Robert Hassell III, OF, Washington Nationals
Traded from San Diego to Washington on Aug. 2
Previous ranking: No. 24
Hassell was the Padres’ first-round pick in the 2020 draft and has hit for average with doubles power in both years in pro ball, while playing better defense in center than expected. He does everything well and nothing poorly, from defense to hitting to baserunning, lacking only plus power at this point — although that might still come. I think it’s more likely he settles in as a 15-20 homer guy, but with a 60 or 70 hit tool. That player in center field is a hell of a regular.
Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Previous ranking: Unranked
If you saw just one thing from the Futures Game, I hope it was Winn’s throw from shortstop, which was harder than any shortstop throw to first in the major leagues … ever. Well, ever recorded by Statcast, at least, and that wasn’t around when Shawon Dunston played. Winn does have a cannon, but his bat has been way beyond expectations in pro ball, as the two-way player, drafted in the second round in 2021, was supposed to be kind of raw at the plate. He has incredible bat speed, and he’s calmed down his approach while showing solid plate discipline. Few players can match the upside here, given Winn’s tools and athleticism.
George Valera, OF, Cleveland Guardians
Previous ranking: No. 29
Valera continues to show power and patience as a 21-year-old in Double A, while even improving his results against left-handed pitching (in a small sample). He still has projection left, with a swing that will let him get to 30-homer power at his peak, and he plays solid-average defense in right field. With his patience, he should end up a middle-of-the-order bat once he finishes filling out.
Brayan Rocchio, SS, Cleveland Guardians
Previous ranking: No. 22
Rocchio is another member of the slow-start club this year, but has returned to form recently, once again making a ton of contact while hitting for power and playing strong defense at short. He’s a switch-hitter and above-average runner, although once again, he’s been below par as a base stealer (9 for 15 this year). Even with the disappointing first two months, he’s still at .269/.357/.442 as a 21-year-old in Double A, and likely to improve on that before the year is out.
Druw Jones, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous ranking: 2022 No. 2 draft pick
Jones was the No. 1 prospect in this year’s draft class and the second pick, but, as you probably know, after signing he hurt his shoulder taking batting practice before he got into a game. He’s a plus defender in center, following in his father’s footsteps, with power and speed, while the main question was how advanced his bat was at the time of the draft. We may have to wait for him to make his pro debut until next year to find out.
Zac Veen, OF, Colorado Rockies
Previous ranking: No. 23
Veen is pretty tooled up, with above-average speed that he deploys ridiculously well on the bases — he’s 44 for 47 (94 percent) stealing this year — and plus raw power that is gradually showing up more in games. He’s incredibly projectable still, even at 20, and should end up a plus defender in right field, where the Rockies have played him. He’s also cut his strikeout rate this year even with the move up to High A, possibly the best indication at his potential to continue developing as a hitter.
Daniel Espino, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Previous ranking: No. 51
Espino would be higher on the list if he hadn’t spent almost this whole year on the IL with patellar tendinitis in his left knee, making just four starts in April. When he pitched, he looked like a future No. 1 starter, working in the upper 90s with a slider that would show plus, although his changeup still lags behind. He also walked just four batters in those four starts and was throwing more strikes in general, although it’s too small a sample to draw a conclusion yet. We just need to see him pitching again, and to know this knee injury isn’t a long-term concern.
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies
Previous ranking: Unranked
The Rockies bumped Tovar up to Double A this year, even though he had just 32 games at High A and didn’t hit there at all last year. But he has risen to the challenge, hitting .318/.386/.546 and already blowing past his walk total from the year before. He’s a true shortstop with solid to plus tools across the board, but went from a too-aggressive approach to a disciplined one, letting the bat speed produce more contact and above-average power already. He’s just 20 and has some physical development ahead of him, but this skills growth is a fantastic sign for him.
Bobby Miller, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: No. 50
Miller probably has the crown for the best pure stuff of any starter in the minors right now, with a fastball up to 102 mph, two distinct breaking balls, and a changeup that has come and gone this year. He does get hit more than someone with his stuff should, given the velocity and movement on his four-seamer, and there are some modest delivery concerns. The changeup looked like it would be a better weapon for him, but he’s had more trouble with left-handed batters this year and scouts report it’s been far less consistent. He’s got No. 1 starter upside given this stuff, with the high-spin curveball plus and the slider not far from it, but some risk that he underperforms his arsenal, too.
DL Hall, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: No. 81
Hall can show you three above-average to plus pitches on any given night, with a good delivery and incredible athleticism that give hope that he’ll get to average control in the near future, while also making it surprising he’s not there yet. He did miss most of 2021 with an elbow issue that didn’t require surgery, and of course as I write this his last start was a disaster (six runs on six hits in just two-thirds of an inning). But even so, he’s striking out 38 percent of batters on the year in Triple A, working with the major-league ball. It’s a four-pitch mix, up to 99 mph with a big action changeup and high spin on the curveball, enough that you can dream and see an ace … but he’s going to need at least another full grade of control to get there.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: Unranked
Crow-Armstrong has one of the highest floors of anyone in the minors, because he’s going to be at least a 60 defender in center, probably 70, who’ll hit — everyone agrees he’s going to hit. More of a contact/speed hitter in high school, he’s changed his stance and swing since hurting his shoulder last spring, starting more upright and less open, getting into his legs more to get to more power for 13 homers this year between Low and High A. The Mets’ first-round pick from 2020 played in just six games in 2021, then went to the Cubs in the Javier Báez trade. This year marked his Cubs debut, and now he’s their best prospect, a true centerfielder with very strong hit/OBP skills who might end up surprising us all with 20-ish homers at his peak.
Cam Collier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Previous ranking: 2022 No. 18 draft pick
Collier was the 18th pick in this year’s draft, a 17-year-old who played for Chipola College, the top JUCO program in the country, and showed plus raw power (but not game) along with an advanced feel to hit for his age. He’s got great hands and a plus arm, giving him a good chance to stay at third base in the long run, even though he’s likely to get a good bit bigger. The son of former MLB outfielder Lou Collier, Cam has a solid approach but it’s more geared to contact than power. As he learns to get to that power more in games, we’ll see more of his very high ceiling as a middle-of-the-order bat, with some floor because he’s got a very good chance to hit for average, too.
Termarr Johnson, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous ranking: 2022 No. 4 draft pick
Owner of the best pure hit tool in the draft class this year, Johnson has a sweet left-handed swing that produces hard contact, has shown he can hit good quality pitching and has some of the best makeup for a high schooler in recent memory. He has a great understanding of hitting and often functioned as an extra coach for his high school team — even when he was on base. He’s a solid-average runner, maybe a tick above, who’ll probably move to second or third in pro ball. I haven’t met or talked to any scout who doubts that Johnson, at the very least, is going to hit for average, making him unusually high probability for a high school hitter.
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Previous ranking: No. 56
Casas’ 2022 season has been a disappointment, mostly because an ankle sprain kept him out for nearly two months, although he also hasn’t hit as well as expected in the 43 games he’s played for Triple-A Worcester. Casas projects to hit for average and 25-30 homer power, with a solid eye at the plate that should produce above-average OBPs. His production issues this year are mostly around his struggles against lefties, which was true in 2021, as well. He will need to close that gap fairly soon, but his eye and his two-strike approach give reason to think he’ll be able to do so.
Gavin Stone, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: Unranked
Signed for just $100,000 as a money-saving pick in the last round of the truncated 2020 draft, Stone now has a 1.50 ERA in 84 innings between High A and Double A this season, with a 33 percent strikeout rate and 8 percent walk rate. He still hasn’t allowed a homer in 11 Double-A starts, somehow, even though it feels like almost every hitter is trying to put the ball in the seats. Stone is 95-97 mph with a 65 changeup, so he’s had a reverse platoon split this year — lefties are hitting .198/.235/.204 against him, with one (1!) extra-base hit this year. As a short right-hander without much depth on his breaking ball, he might have a lower ceiling than the stat line implies, but this guy is banging on the door of a big-league rotation right now.
Quinn Priester, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous ranking: No. 57
Priester missed two months after straining an oblique muscle in his last spring training outing, and the Pirates brought him back cautiously, but he’s back to full strength and full pitch counts now and looks like he did at the end of last season. Priester has four pitches, working up to 97 mph with the potential for any of the other three pitches to end up plus, although I don’t think any is there yet. He drives the fastball down in the zone but can miss bats with it up top, the curveball has solid spin rates with a ton of depth, and he has good deception and tail on the changeup when he doesn’t overthrow it. He’s got a great delivery and fields his position well, with some room to continue filling out. He might be a mid-rotation guy with the stuff he has now, but has the chance to be a No. 2 if any of the secondaries becomes an out pitch.
Miguel Vargas, 3B/IF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: No. 62
Vargas just keeps on hitting, with a .294/.385/.504 line so far in Triple A as a 22-year-old, making a ton of hard contact and hitting all pitch types. He’s still more of a contact/doubles hitter than a big power guy, although that can change quickly when you have the hard contact skill (especially when you’re a Dodger), and he’s probably not going to stay at third in the long term. There’s a chance he gets to 25-plus homers, though, and a chance he stays at third; it’s just more likely he’s a high-average 20ish homer guy at first who’s an above-average regular for a long time.
Brennen Davis (Matt Kartozian / USA Today)
Brennen Davis, OF, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: No. 28
Davis had a rough start to the season and ended up having surgery on his lower back in early June, which was thought to be the end of his 2022 season, but there’s a chance we’ll see him before the minor-league season wraps up or in the Arizona Fall League. When healthy, he’s shown plus raw power and could end up a 25-30 homer guy who gets on base at an above-average clip and plays strong defense in right field. We may not see that version of Davis again until he gets a full offseason of rehab and rest.
Taj Bradley, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Previous ranking: No. 58
Bradley started the Futures Game for the American League and sat 95-97 mph in his inning of work, while throwing his slider/cutter at 89-92 mph. He’s got a third pitch, a hard changeup that he’ll use often to lefties, and a great delivery that should make him a durable starter. He’s really athletic and still looks like he’s going to get stronger. I think there’s one more step of development here for the 21-year-old, who just reached Triple A and dominated in his first start for Durham.
Gavin Williams, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Previous ranking: Unranked
Williams was the 23rd pick in 2021, but has exploded since then, striking out 40 percent of batters in High A. He has a fastball he runs up to 98 mph that misses bats and a four-pitch mix that should leave him with at least one plus secondary pitch, with the changeup the laggard right now. He’s been durable so far in pro ball, with a short arm action he repeats well, although his strike-throwing has taken a hit after a recent promotion to Double A. He’s definitely a starter if he stays healthy, at least a mid-rotation guy, but could end up a No. 1 depending on how good his offspeed stuff gets.
Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets
Previous ranking: No. 41
Baty is doing exactly what he needed to do this year, hitting the ball on the ground less so more of his extremely hard contact is leaving the yard — he’s at 16 homers, already four more than his total from last year, a 32-homer pace for a 162 game season. He’s always had the hit tool and a good eye, even with some swing and miss, and is so strong it seemed inevitable he’d get to plus game power before too long. He’s worked hard to keep his body in infield shape, but the Mets have had him play a little bit of left field to give him more paths to the majors and, I presume, prepare him in case they end up with a plus defender at third somewhere else.
Elijah Green, OF, Washington Nationals
Previous ranking: 2022 No. 5 draft pick
Green was the fifth pick in the 2022 draft, and the IMG Academy standout was probably the highest-upside guy in the class, just lacking some of the probability of the hitters who went ahead of him. Green is 6-3, 225 pounds, yet is a 70 runner and can flash that kind of power. He moves well enough that he might stick in center field and has the plus arm for right. He has shown more propensity to swing and miss, including on stuff in the zone, than his peers in this draft, which is why he went fifth and not first. Sometimes players of this type turn into Jordan Walker, and sometimes they turn into Jo Adell, but I’m in favor of rolling the dice on this kind of athleticism and upside when you can.
Brooks Lee, SS, Minnesota Twins
Previous ranking: 2022 No 8 draft pick
The Twins ended up with the top college player in the draft class this year when Lee, who was in the mix at No. 1 for much of the spring, ended up at the eighth pick. He’s an extremely advanced hitter who struck out under 10 percent of the time this spring, walking far more often than he whiffed, while making a lot of hard contact for Cal Poly. He tied for fifth in Division I in doubles with 25, one off the lead, while also hitting 15 homers, which I think is a good indicator of the sort of hitter he’ll be in pro ball. He’s got great hands and instincts but doesn’t have the speed or agility to stay at shortstop, most likely moving to third where he might be a plus defender. We often say this or that college player should move quickly to the majors, but Brooks Lee is the ne plus ultra of those players.
Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Previous ranking: Unranked
Tiedemann has been up to 100 mph this year and sits in the mid to upper 90s with an above-average to plus changeup and above-average slider. He starts on the extreme first base side of the rubber and finishes a bit on that side too, so left-handers get a horrendous look at the ball. And he’s dominated batters on both sides. He’s supposedly headed for Double-A New Hampshire, where his below-average command will be better tested, but hasn’t pitched anywhere since July 8.
Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: 2022 No. 1 draft pick
The son of longtime big leaguer Matt Holliday, Jackson was the first pick in this year’s draft, a true shortstop very likely to stay there with a chance to hit for average and power. In the offseason he improved his conditioning and reworked his swing, getting stronger and wowing scouts during a spring break trip from Stillwater to Arizona in March. He hasn’t done it against better quality pitching yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rake whenever he makes his pro debut.
Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
Previous ranking: Unranked
Montgomery was the White Sox’s first-round pick in 2021, out of an Indiana high school, and the 20-year-old has shown plus defense at short and an advanced approach at the plate. After a mid-June promotion, he’s hitting .298/.423/.464 at High A, with more walks than strikeouts. He was supposed to be more power than hit, but he controls the barrel well enough that I think he’s going to continue to hit for average and get on base, with maybe 15-20 homer power – which makes him an above-average regular, at least.
James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals
Traded from San Diego to Washington on Aug. 2
Previous ranking: Unranked
Wood worked on everything this past offseason, losing 20-25 pounds and cutting down on his swing so that his natural athleticism can come to the forefront more – and it has, as he’s hit .319/.443/.568 in 48 games in Low A as a 19-year-old, with nine homers and 15 steals. He’s huge, 6-foot-7 and still listed at 240 pounds, running plus with 80 raw power, and so far the swing and miss tendency he showed in high school last spring hasn’t shown up in pro ball. He does still have huge risk, as the history of hitters his height is very poor, but his plate discipline and huge power/speed upside make him the Padres’ latest breakout prospect.
Jack Leiter, RHP, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: No. 26
I don’t think this is really the debut the Rangers wanted, as Leiter, the second pick in 2021, went right to Double A for his pro debut this year. He’s struggled with command and, surprisingly, even control, walking one of every eight batters he’s faced. Leiter’s still up to 95-96 mph with big riding life and can show a plus curveball, but he’s been wildly inefficient and has been hit harder than he should with this stuff. He hasn’t gotten 15 outs in a start since June 7, and has made it through six innings once all season. The sum of the parts here shouldn’t lead to a 6-plus ERA in Double A. He’s also just 22 and in his first pro season, so there is time to right the ship.
Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Previous ranking: Unranked
The Phillies’ first-round pick from 2021, Painter just overwhelmed Low-A hitters this year, striking out 46 percent of them and not treating the rest of them much better. He has been almost as dominant in High A since a mid-June promotion. He is huge, listed at 6-foot-7, 215 pounds, and already probably heavier than that (in a good way), working 95-98 mph with a plus curveball. The main challenge for him will be staying healthy, and perhaps refining his changeup. He offers front-of-the-rotation upside with the attendant risk of any 19-year-old who throws a billion miles an hour.
Kevin Parada, C, New York Mets
Previous ranking: 2022 No. 11 draft pick
Parada was, in my opinion, the best overall player in Division I this spring, a catcher who hit .361/.453/.709 while playing for Georgia Tech and facing ACC pitching. But he ended up sliding all the way to the Mets at the 11th pick. He’s a bat-first guy, with an excellent eye and a history of hard contact, while his defense behind the plate is fringy at best, from his receiving to his throwing. I don’t think his glove will matter if he hits like he’s capable of hitting. He’s not going to have to move to another position and he should hit for average with solid OBPs and 20-plus homers.
Tanner Bibee, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Previous ranking: Unranked
The Guardians’ fifth-round pick from 2021, has added at least 7 mph to his fastball in the last 12 months, now hitting 99 mph regularly without any loss of the command or control that made him a prospect in college despite just fringy velocity. He’s walked under 5 percent of batters this year, even with a recent promotion to Double A, and is showing a plus changeup. I think the Guardians should keep drafting California college pitchers with good command and last names that start with B.
Yosver Zulueta, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Previous ranking: Unranked
Zulueta threw all of one pitch in the Futures Game, so yay for that, but he’s emerged from nearly three lost years as a four-pitch starter who mostly needs to build up his workload. Zulueta defected after the 2018-19 offseason, ended up having Tommy John surgery and suffered a season-ending knee injury in his first outing back in 2021. His outings this year have been short, but he’s been up to 100 mph with improvement to both his slider and curveball, while he needs to throw his changeup more consistently for strikes. If he can handle the workload, he’s a mid-rotation guy at least, while he could also help the big club as a reliever right now.
Shea Langeliers (David Durochik / Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Shea Langeliers, C, Oakland A’s
Previous ranking: No. 80
Langeliers is a power-over-hit guy who can really catch and throw, enough that he could probably play regularly for Oakland right now if it ends up trading Sean Murphy at some point — and he’s quite similar to Murphy in skills and expected production. The best of the players coming back from Atlanta in the Matt Olson trade, Langeliers should be a 20-homer catcher who walks enough to make up for modest batting averages and adds value across the board with his defense.
Curtis Mead, 3B/2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Previous ranking: No. 94
Mead messed around with his swing in May, but he struggled so he went back to his previous mechanics and resumed hitting like he had in 2021, with a lot of contact and doubles power. He’s not great at third base, so the Rays have moved him around the infield, playing him at second and a little at first, but the bat is the carrying tool, and he should hit for high averages with low strikeout rates and 15-20 homers a year.
Matthew Liberatore, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Previous ranking: No. 36
Liberatore has a plus curveball and an above-average to plus changeup, but in his first major-league call-up he struggled because hitters hit his fastball, which has velocity but not movement or high spin, hard enough that he didn’t get to those secondary pitches enough. Some of this was command, as he was middle-middle too often and missed up more than he missed down, but he may also need to change his approach to deemphasize the fastball or tweak the pitch to reach his full potential.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Minnesota Twins
Previous ranking: Unranked
Rodriguez signed with the Twins for $2.7 million in 2019, had an unremarkable pro debut in the Florida Complex Leave last year, but was having a huge breakout this spring in Low A when he tore the meniscus in his right knee in early June, ending his season. He hit .272/.493/.552 in 47 games — that OBP is not a typo, he reached base in nearly half his plate appearances — as a 19-year-old, playing mostly centerfield, although his most likely future home is right. He has huge raw power already that should get him to 30-plus homers in the majors. He should be good to go for spring training.
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: No. 32
Jung must wonder if he was born under a black cloud, as he was drafted in 2019, played just 78 games last year around injuries, then tore a labrum in his shoulder in spring training this year and underwent surgery. He is just now playing rehab games in the Arizona Rookie League, and it’s unclear if he’ll be able to play defense this year or just return as a DH. He can really hit — and with power — reaching Triple A last year and swatting 19 homers between two levels, with a .436 OBP at the higher stop. He would be in the majors right now if he hadn’t gotten hurt, and maybe he’ll at least get some at bats in Arlington before the year is out. The bigger question is whether he’ll remain at third or move to first, where he’d still be a regular but have a slightly lower ceiling.
Gordon Graceffo, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Previous ranking: Unranked
The Cardinals’ fifth-round pick last year out of Villanova, Graceffo was a command guy in college with a good changeup, but he’s exploded this year, hitting 99 mph, pitching in the mid to upper 90s, with a plus changeup and two breaking balls that are at least average. He’s been hit a little harder in Double A, a lot of which is about fastball location, but he’s already got a mid-rotation floor and the potential to exceed that by a lot.
(By the way, last year’s fifth round included Graceffo and Bibee on this list, plus Griff McGarry of the Phillies and the toolsy Mason Auer of the Rays, an incredible early showing for such a late round.)
Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Previous ranking: No. 88
Frelick is a no-doubt centerfielder who puts the bat on the ball a ton and has continued to make enough hard contact to profile as more than just a regular there. He might never be more than a fringy power guy, but he doesn’t have to be with his defense, speed and OBP skills. I’m a big fan of Tyler Black, the Brewers’ second pick last year, as well, but he doesn’t have Frelick’s defensive value and may end up playing multiple positions.
Owen White, RHP, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: Just missed
White was the Rangers’ second-round pick in 2018, but never threw a pitch in pro ball before having Tommy John surgery, then the pandemic pushed back his pro debut to 2021, and then he broke his hand. I don’t know who the Rangers angered, but their prospects have had more injuries, routine and bizarre, than any other system I can remember. Anyway, White blew up (the good kind) in the Arizona Fall League last year and has carried it over to 2022, throwing a ton of strikes with a four-pitch mix, sitting 93-96 mph with two above-average secondaries in his slider and change. He’s already in Double A and continuing to dominate across he board, shutting down lefties even more than righties.
Jace Jung, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Previous ranking: 2022 No. 12 draft pick
Jung was the 12th pick in this year’s draft, following in his brother’s (Josh Jung) footsteps as a first-rounder after a successful career of mashing baseballs for Texas Tech. Jace does it with a very weird setup, but gets the bat head to the ball on time, and his track record gives me more confidence in his future ability to hit than Josh’s (even though Josh has better mechanics and more raw power). Josh is not a great defender on the dirt, but should at least go out there for a year or two before we see if he has to go to an outfield corner. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t hit, wherever he plays.
Vaughn Grissom, SS, Atlanta
Previous ranking: Unranked
Atlanta’s 11th-round pick in 2019 — the year the organization went hog-wild after the 10th round and signed a bunch of promising high school players to above-slot bonuses in the $200,000 to $600,000 range — Grissom hit .312/.404/.487 in High A this year before a July promotion to Double A, where he’s continued to rake. He’s a plus runner and a great hitter for contact, but may not have a ton of pop and probably moves off shortstop. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling but has established himself as a likely regular who could be a borderline star. (He’s unrelated to Marquis, by the way.)
Kevin Alcantara, OF, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: Unranked
Alcantara was the highest-ceiling prospect the Cubs got back in all of their trades last summer. The now 19-year-old outfielder has as projectable a body as you will ever see and surprising bat control for a still gangly 6-6 kid. Alcantara is hitting .265/.353/.462 in Low A, playing half his games in the notorious pitchers’ park of Myrtle Beach, with a team-leading 12 homers and 16 doubles — tying for the team lead in that category. He’s played mostly center since Crow-Armstrong’s promotion, but Alcantara is going to put on at least another 20 pounds and I think he ends up in right. He has similar OBP/power upside to Emmanuel Rodriguez, although Alcantara’s power is still on the come.
Re: Articles
Posted: Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:54 am
by rusty2
Franmil Reyes’ rapid downfall with the Cleveland Guardians
Jun 29, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians designated hitter Franmil Reyes (32) reacts after striking out in the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
Aug 6, 2022
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CLEVELAND — Franmil Reyes leaned against the dugout railing at Globe Life Field in October and pondered his future. Cleveland’s lineup was full of question marks, but he represented one of the few certainties, a safe bet to smack 30 or so baseballs to the outfield nosebleeds.
He wondered aloud whether he could amass 45 or 50 home runs and 120 RBIs. He stressed that “Cleveland hasn’t seen it all. Me, I haven’t seen it all. So, I don’t know what’s the limit. I have no limit.”
But when Reyes arrived at spring training once the league’s lockout ceased, he revealed he hadn’t faced any live pitching, and members of the organization thought he was out of shape. Six months earlier, on that afternoon before the season finale in Texas, Reyes said this:
“Going into the offseason, I want to work and come back like I did in 2020 spring training. You know, have my body a little bit more in shape. I want to prepare myself to play 162 games.”
It’s easy to highlight certain criticisms — weight gain, a lack of focus on his craft — when a player’s production craters. But Reyes’ approach to this season seems to have worn on the organization’s chief decision-makers.
On Opening Day, Reyes batted fourth. Bobby Bradley hit fifth.
Four months later, the Guardians designated Reyes for assignment and released Bradley. Odds are, neither will don a Cleveland uniform again.
The Bradley decision arose because he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year and had no future in Cleveland behind Josh Naylor, Nolan Jones, Oscar González, Will Benson, Owen Miller or whoever ultimately claims the first-base and designated-hitter spots. It also clears a spot for the club to promote an everyday position player to Triple-A Columbus.
As for Reyes, the front office dangled him on the trade market in recent weeks but couldn’t find any takers. Now, he’s available to be claimed by any of the 29 other teams. If he clears waivers, he cannot refuse an outright assignment to Triple A.
The Guardians would have non-tendered Reyes this winter anyway, making him a free agent. (He would have been owed at least $4 million via arbitration.) Now, another team can claim him, stick him on its 40-man roster and essentially grant him a two-month audition to determine whether he’s worth that salary next year. Or, he could clear waivers, return to Columbus and then become a minor-league free agent at the end of the season.
Reyes’ power is a treasured asset in a lineup like Cleveland’s, one full of contact hitters, but his power vanished and his strikeout rate soared to an uncomfortable level. Since the club demoted him to Triple A earlier this week, coaches have raved about having the designated-hitter spot unclogged, freeing up opportunities for Jones, González and Benson and sparing Naylor, José Ramírez and Amed Rosario from playing defense every day.
There’s no denying Reyes’ innate ability. He still swings a forceful bat. Making consistent contact is what proved elusive this season, and he acknowledged the frustration became overwhelming at times.
In 2021, Reyes ranked in the 87th percentile in the league in hard-hit rate. In 2022, he ranks in the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate.
So, when he does make contact, he makes solid contact. It’s just … he didn’t make enough contact.
• Reyes vs. breaking balls in 2021: .219 average, .521 slugging percentage, 43.6% whiff rate
• Reyes vs. breaking balls in 2022: .162 average, .242 slugging percentage, 55.1% whiff rate
His chase rate increased, but his contact rate when chasing dropped drastically.
• 2021 chase rate: 25.8 percent
• 2022 chase rate: 29.4 percent
• 2021 chase contact rate: 49.3 percent
• 2022 chase contact rate: 35.7 percent
In other words, more swings at pitches out of the zone but far fewer connections on those swings.
Reyes’ 37.1 percent strikeout rate ranks second worst in the majors, ahead of only Joey Gallo, whom the Yankees dispatched out of the Bronx earlier this week. Reyes’ .196 expected batting average (based on the quality of his contact) ranks ahead of only Gallo, Martín Maldonado, Max Muncy and Mike Moustakas. His walk rate plummeted, too.
“He wasn’t getting to the fastball,” manager Terry Francona said, “and it seemed like the hanging breaking ball, he was maybe hitting for a single. And there was an occasional home run, but he just wasn’t getting the pitches he used to.”
Reyes hit 37 home runs in 2019, his first full big-league season. He clubbed 30 last season in only 115 games. He totaled nine in 70 games this season with Cleveland and logged a .350 slugging percentage, ahead of only Austin Hedges and Myles Straw among Guardians regulars. His swinging strike rate (17.1 percent) was more than six times that of Steven Kwan.
Victor Rodríguez, the club’s assistant hitting coach, said Reyes was attempting “to hit a three-run homer or grand slam with nobody on” to atone for all of his unfruitful at-bats. When he forced the issue, he fell deeper into a funk.
“There’s no way from one year to another this guy is going to disappear,” Rodríguez said.
Consider this bases-loaded at-bat against Detroit’s Alex Faedo from May 22. First, Reyes waves at a slider that never sniffs the strike zone.
Then, he swings through a slider that Faedo left near the middle of the zone.
Finally, on the third pitch, Reyes offers a futile swing at another slider that bounces in the dirt.
Three years ago, Cleveland traded Trevor Bauer to the Reds in a three-team deal that landed the club five players: Reyes, outfielder Yasiel Puig, pitchers Logan Allen and Scott Moss and infield prospect Victor Nova. None of the five remains with the organization.
Reyes chatted with new Cooperstown resident David Ortiz earlier this season, the second straight year the two have connected, with assistance from Cleveland’s coaching staff. Ortiz’s message: “Don’t allow them to get rid of you.” In other words, play yourself into their long-term plans. Ortiz reminded Reyes he spent his first six years in the majors with the Twins, who severed ties with him when he was 27, and wasn’t considered much of a potent slugger. He said he was fortunate the Red Sox scooped him up and that he had Manny Ramírez and other veterans to guide him to stardom.
Reyes is bound for a fresh start with a new organization, either next week or this winter.
“He wanted to do it,” Rodríguez said, “but he wasn’t able to do it. … He’s 27. The best years are still to come.”
Re: Articles
Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:50 am
by TFIR
Guardians notes: Triston McKenzie’s growth, Shane Bieber’s standards and Bryan (Shaw) at the Bat
Aug 7, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Triston McKenzie (24) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
CLEVELAND — Triston McKenzie faced Jose Altuve twice last season. Two at-bats, two home runs.
This season, baseball’s top boo inducer is 1-for-5 with a single against McKenzie, who acknowledged his 2021 shortcomings against the diminutive second baseman, before adding: “Not this year.”
McKenzie registered the most significant out(s) of perhaps his sharpest start of the season — it was certainly the most efficient — on an Altuve double play to end the eighth inning Sunday. He’s blossoming into a dependable, front-line starter, and his best efforts have come against the American League’s Goliaths, the Yankees and Astros.
May 23 at Houston: Seven innings, one run, three hits
July 3 vs. New York: Seven innings, zero runs, one hit
Sunday vs. Houston: Eight innings, zero runs, two hits
What was the key to his outing Sunday, in which he needed only 91 pitches to breeze through his eight frames?
Luke Maile, who caught McKenzie (and provided the only offense of the afternoon, with a solo homer, his first in 39 months) summed it up this way:
“I think it’s just staying in his lanes. What I mean by that is when he tries to go away, he starts with his fastball, and his fastball is able to get to the extension side, away to right-handed hitters. More often than not, those are the days when his breaking stuff plays best. To me, it’s about as simple as that. There are a few other things here and there, but it’s usually about as simple as that.
“He’s had a couple times where it’s been one inning here, one inning there where it gets away, so it’s not completely universal in that regard, but when he’s hitting — I think today he threw a couple 90 mph fastballs by some pretty good hitters when they were expecting fastballs. Obviously, he has 95-96 (mph) in the tank, but when 90 is getting them, you know that they’re trying to pick a side, and that speaks to how good his command is with the fastball leading up to that particular pitch.”
Related: McKenzie on the art of execution and moving past a costly pitch
Luke Maile celebrates after hitting his first home run since 2019. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
Bieber’s learning curve
For the first time in his career, Shane Bieber is attempting to make significant adjustments to his throwing mechanics. Doing so in-season isn’t an ideal scenario, and he said it was “frustrating.”
“I feel like I’m on the right path,” he told The Athletic, “but I’m not near where I know I can be and where I want to be. It’s interesting to go out there and experiment in bullpens and even in a Major League Baseball game while still trying to achieve the best results, so it’s a weird mix and definitely a challenge, both physically and mentally.”
Bieber’s diminished fastball velocity has been well-documented — an average of 94.1 mph in 2020, 92.8 mph in 2021 and 91.0 mph in 2022. Perhaps as noticeable is his pitch usage. He throws his slider about as often as his fastball, and for good reason. The pitch has a higher whiff rate than his other offerings.
Bieber said he fell into troublesome habits with his delivery last summer to protect his arm when his shoulder was barking. He said he’s had to “re-pattern what’s most efficient and most powerful.”
“Even though mentally I’ve let off the training wheels, because I feel 100 percent, I think my arm action is just a little bit less efficient than I’d like it to be,” he said. “I have to work through the arm action in the middle of the season, which is different.”
And while working through those changes, Bieber has logged a 3.39 ERA in 20 starts, with about a strikeout per inning. He isn’t the otherworldly force on the mound he was in 2020, but his numbers are in line with where they were in 2019 (when he was an All-Star and finished fourth in the American League Cy Young balloting) and 2021.
“I definitely hold myself to a high standard,” he said. “There’s more in there for me.”
Stress-free ninth innings
Emmanuel Clase finished off the Astros with a 1-2-3 ninth inning Sunday. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
Emmanuel Clase hasn’t registered a blown save since May 9, the day Josh Naylor challenged everyone at Guaranteed Rate Field to a helmet-smashing contest. And really, that was a cheap blown save because the White Sox started the 10th inning with a runner in scoring position.
For Clase’s last (and only) legitimate blown save, you have to travel back to April 23, the day Yankees fans littered the outfield with beer bottles. That’s also the last time he surrendered an earned run in a save situation. On Saturday, Clase allowed his first run in a month, but Cleveland entered the ninth with a four-run advantage.
The tale of Bryan at the Bat
On June 12, 2010, the Double-A Mobile BayBears thumped the Jacksonville Suns 10-0. That day, a 22-year-old named Bryan Shaw delivered a two-run single off a struggling 25-year-old starting pitcher named Andrew Miller.
“That’s all that matters,” Shaw recalled.
Miller surrendered nine runs in the first inning that day. Shaw went six scoreless as a starting pitcher for Arizona’s affiliate. He had actually forgotten about that encounter, until he arrived in Colorado in 2017 and Rockies coaches reminded him — since the designated hitter wasn’t in place in the National League — that he had some past experience in the batter’s box.
“I immediately texted him,” Shaw said.
And how did Miller reply?
“Probably that he sucked at that time,” Shaw said. “He wasn’t very good as a starter at that point.”
The two became teammates in 2016, leading a bullpen that fueled Cleveland’s run to the World Series. Shaw hasn’t recorded a hit since; he hasn’t batted since 2011.
In fact, no active player has appeared in more major-league games without receiving at least one plate appearance. When veteran reliever David Robertson struck out on June 22, Shaw took over the top spot. He, of course, knew it. Shaw has pitched in 736 games during his 12-year career. He has led the league in appearances four times.
He would eventually like to escape the top of that hitting leaderboard.
“I try to get an at-bat every single time we play somebody in the National League,” Shaw said. “Tito won’t give me one. But I will get one after seven more years of playing, on my last day before I retire. I told him he has to give me an at-bat. He told me if he’s still coaching, he will.”
And what does manager Terry Francona have to say on the matter?
“I might not even be alive in seven years,” Francona quipped.
Last month, Francona did say: “Some day, it’ll probably work out. I don’t know how it would. But if it ever does, I’d do it. I would never tell him (ahead of time) because he’ll drive me bananas in the meantime. He asked me in Cincinnati once after he gave up two runs that tied the game. He asks, ‘Can I hit second?’ ‘No, get the fuck out of here.’”
Ah, but the situation almost arose Friday night. The Guardians ditched their designated hitter so José Ramírez could rest the final few innings in what was heading toward a lopsided loss for Cleveland. Shaw entered in relief and was technically occupying the No. 3 spot in the lineup. Had Shaw pitched several innings and a victory seemed out of reach, Francona would have let Shaw hit. And, fittingly, Miller was in attendance — along with Cody Allen and Lonnie Chisenhall — as an ambassador alumnus for the weekend.
“That was his chance,” Francona said.
“I’ll get one eventually,” Shaw said.
