Cleveland Guardians trade targets, players to watch in 2022 and shipping containers: Meisel’s Mailbag
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 18: Franmil Reyes #32 of the Cleveland Indians follows through with his swing on his sixth inning two-run home run against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 18, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel Nov 16, 2021 18
CLEVELAND — Without further ado, your questions (which have been lightly edited for clarity) …
Aside from Shane Bieber, the rotation seems to be full of No. 3 or No. 4 starters. While I can appreciate the value in having rotation depth, I think the lack of a true front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Bieber makes it hard to see Cleveland as more than a fringe contender. Do you see the team trying to spend some of its upcoming payroll increase to get an arm who could slot in toward the front of the rotation? — Ethan S.
I don’t see them devoting resources to adding another legitimate starter unless they trade one away. For the front office, there’s comfort in knowing they have five capable options (and some moderately intriguing depth behind that group in Eli Morgan, Cody Morris and a wave of prospects who pitched at Double A last season). But there’s also room for growth; the main quintet is young enough that it would be unfair to assume all five have reached their ceilings.
Who’s to say Cal Quantrill or Triston McKenzie can’t be front-line starters? Quantrill’s second-half stats certainly showcased that potential. We’ve seen flashes from Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale as well, but it’s easy to forget that they’ve totaled only 54 and 43 major-league starts, respectively. They aren’t finished products. Even Bieber will want to prove that he can offer something remotely close to his 2020 production over 30-plus starts.
Bottom line: I still think there’s a lot we don’t know about this group. It’s the part of the roster with the highest floor. It’s the part of the roster that suggests this team might be able to contend. But it’s five pitchers who can also perform better, and for this team to win, that needs that to happen.
Which Guardians hitter and pitcher are you most looking forward to watching next year? — Ben G.
Franmil Reyes suggested he can hit 45 or 50 home runs in a season. “Cleveland hasn’t seen it all,” he said in the dugout before Game 161. Well, then, let’s see it. No Cleveland hitter has reached the 40-homer mark since Travis Hafner in 2006.
On the pitching side, I’m ready to watch McKenzie adjust to big-league hitters over a full season now that he’s armed with the confidence of knowing he belongs on that stage. A full season of Anthony Gose could be fun, too.
What minor leaguers are you expecting to see the most out of next year in the bigs? Who will get the most playing time, and will there be any surprises? — Jared G.
It’s a bit difficult to project before we witness any offseason moves — and they’ll begin in the next few days, as 40-man rosters are due at the end of the week — but two names stand out: Gabriel Arias and Cody Morris. Arias should be major league-ready or close to it; an incredibly gifted defensive shortstop, he posted a .284/.348/.454 slash line at Triple-A Columbus as a 21-year-old this year. How he joins Cleveland’s infield and who he displaces, and when — that’s all anyone’s guess.
Morris, 25, recorded a 1.62 ERA in 61 innings this year and spent most of his time at Triple A. He racked up 93 strikeouts and limited opponents to a .189 average. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and team evaluators were salivating over his output late in the summer. He doesn’t have a ton of minor-league experience — only 150 innings because of the pandemic and some injuries — but at some point in 2022, he should factor into Cleveland’s pitching plans.
What would it take for the team to acquire Matt Olson from the A’s, and is it something it would do? — Mike C.
There’s no harm in inquiring, especially since Oakland seems determined to pare its payroll to 2021 Cleveland territory. Olson is a clear upgrade over Bobby Bradley, but he has only two years of control remaining. The two-time Gold Glove Award winner registered a .271/.371/.540 slash line, with 39 home runs and 35 doubles this season. He’d likely cost a bunch and he’ll have plenty of suitors. If the Yankees are one of them, perhaps Luke Voit, who has three years of team control remaining, would be a more feasible target.
How legit is the talk about (Reyes) holding down a corner outfield spot? Seems like there is continually talk about this and it comes to nothing when the games start. Can (Myles) Straw’s glove in center make this a more plausible option than in prior years? If so, could the team make more of a run at a short-term DH masher? Maybe Nelson Cruz? — Brad A.
Reyes wants to play out there more regularly. He has the arm to do it. He’s playing winter ball and is aiming to shed weight and increase his mobility this offseason.
Cleveland learned in the second half how it could be beneficial, as it allowed acting manager DeMarlo Hale to rest certain guys and rotate others into the mix defensively. That said, as you mentioned, we hear this every offseason, so I’ll believe it when I see it. And, obviously, it will boil down to roster construction. If they’re serious this time, it opens up an avenue to more aggressively target a first baseman (Voit?) or designated hitter/pseudo outfielder (Jorge Soler?) this winter.
It’s difficult to forecast Amed Rosario’s future in Cleveland. (David Berding / Getty Images)
Zack, I am surprised by how many people are on the Amed Rosario train. Did you know he had a lower xwOBA than Roberto Pérez (.296 vs. .298)? He was below league average offensively (99 wRC+) despite posting a .340 BABIP. His Statcast page is littered in blue: 8th percentile BB%, 8th percentile barrel%, 10th percentile chase rate, 38th percentile average exit velocity. And defensively, he was atrocious. He was worth minus-9 defensive runs saved (24th out of 28 shortstops with a minimum of 600 innings at the position) and ranked in the 17th percentile in outs above average. Why all the — well, any — love? — David B.
Because everything’s relative. Had Owen Miller or Andrés Giménez produced one iota of what Rosario produced, we would all frame the Rosario situation differently. The reality is, he’s a placeholder at shortstop and his future on the roster hinges on the team’s offseason moves and the development of the younger infielders. Eventually, Giménez or Arias or Brayan Rocchio or Jose Tena will push Rosario to another position, if there’s one available.
Despite the unfavorable metrics, Rosario’s offensive profile — he did collect line-drive singles and doubles in bunches, especially against lefties — can suffice at shortstop … as long as he’s not such a liability defensively. The young contenders for the long-term spot at the position are all superior defenders. So, eventually, Rosario is bound for another area of the diamond (or another team).
Can you dive into the Ty Van Burkleo situation? Did this signal an organizational shift in hitting philosophy, or was this a change in the minors (they seem to have some good hitters in the lower levels) that forced the hand of the major-league club? — Brent W.
Van Burkleo was the longest-tenured hitting coach in the majors. That’s incredible in itself, and even more difficult to fathom considering the annual groans about the offense’s shortcomings. And that’s not to pile on the guy who was dismissed; Cleveland owns the eighth-best wRC+ in baseball (100) since 2013, which might surprise some people (including the one who just looked up that stat). No matter the level of culpability one coach deserves, however, it felt like change was past due.
The team wanted a new voice in its head hitting coach position, someone to offer fresh ideas, input and philosophies that can be adopted throughout the organization. Their young hitters mostly disappointed in 2021, and the farm system is stocked with position-player prospects who could debut within the next couple of years. It’s critical that they employ a group of forward-thinking coaches and analysts to collaborate with hitters and capitalize on their ability.
I’ll have more on new hitting coach Chris Valaika in the near future, but from initial conversations with those who know him well, he seems to have a strong grasp of data and biomechanics, which is becoming a necessary component of coaching.
I know you said signing Starling Marte to play a corner would kind of be a waste of his abilities, but he still seems like an ideal fit to me. He and Straw in the outfield would allow the other corner to be a big offensive guy with limited range (whether that’s Reyes or a trade acquisition), and having another high-average guy would help the lineup. Which is more likely to keep it from happening, money or fit? — Scotty H.
I just meant that a team in desperate need of a center fielder (Houston?) would probably make a bigger play for Marte, because while it’s a pretty deep outfield class, most of the options are best suited for left or right field. Marte has been on Cleveland’s radar as a trade target for several years, though. Cleveland ran amok in the second half of the 2021 season, with Straw, Rosario, Bradley Zimmer and José Ramírez piling up stolen bases. Now imagine adding Marte, the league leader in that category, to the mix.
If Cleveland hadn’t experienced so many injuries, would it have been in contention for a wild-card spot? If the front office believes so, do you think that changes their perspective on how to approach this offseason? — Chris W.
It’s hard to gauge where Cleveland’s record would have stood if the rotation remained healthy, and it’s important to remember no team completes a 162-game season unscathed. The Yankees and Red Sox qualified for the wild-card game with 92 wins apiece. Cleveland’s front office has cited injuries as a reason the team finished with only 80 wins, but I don’t think that really matters when it comes to offseason decision-making. I think they look ahead, not back. Regardless of how last season unfolded, one can examine this roster and identify that they need reinforcements in the lineup and have a pitching staff capable of keeping the team afloat. I think there’s a sense in the organization that this roster isn’t that far off from being a contender, but there’s definitely some urgency to make upgrades, and they could use depth throughout the roster in case another rash of injuries surfaces in 2022. It’s difficult to boast major-league depth on a $50 million budget.
All we are going to have to do for a bit is debate potential trades, so, if the Guardians deal for an outfielder with a couple years of control, would you prefer Jesse Winker or Ian Happ? — Quincy W.
Winker, I suppose. But he’s essentially a platoon guy, a better Joc Pederson. Happ is more versatile and can hit for pop. He makes sense as a trade target, and Chicago’s new GM might have an idea or two about which Cleveland prospects he covets.
But Winker is so good against right-handed pitching that it’s hard to pass up the opportunity if he’s available (and Cincinnati sure seems to be trending toward a roster recalibration).
Winker, career vs. RHP: .313/.405/.556 slash line
Winker, career vs. LHP: .188/.305/.295 slash line
It’s rare to see such a stark contrast. But he was an All-Star in 2021. He’s basically Vladimir Guerrero Jr. against righties.
With Austin Hedges already on the roster and Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor likely being added to the 40-man roster, what veteran catcher will Cleveland look to add? Is there a chance they don’t add another catcher and preserve the 40-man roster spot? — Chris R.
They’ll add a second major-league catcher via trade or free agency, though there’s not much out there in free agency. It’s basically a who’s who of former Cleveland catchers, including Pérez, Yan Gomes, Wilson Ramos, Ryan Lavarnway, Sandy León and Beau Taylor. So, don’t be surprised if they travel the trade route. (Just spitballing some names: Sean Murphy, Jacob Stallings, Danny Jansen, Elias Diaz.)
Lavastida will be added to the 40-man roster, but Naylor has another year before he needs to be protected. The club believes both need more time in the minors, Naylor with the bat and Lavastida with his game-calling.
Settle a bet: Was/is there really anything in those storage bins in the right field upper deck? And where does the person work now that decided that looked good? — Brent W.
That’s where they store reporters’ articles that never see the light of day. If you ever get a chance to march up there before the team renovates that area, you might stumble upon a crumpled piece of paper with the headline “Kluber stays in for the ninth, no-hits the Cardinals” or “Mariners cruise to an early-August blowout win at Jacobs Field on Sunday Night Baseball.”
No one thought that arrangement looked good, even the captain of the renovations ship, who now works north of the border. The shipping containers — some team employees even begrudgingly call them that — were never the plan, and in a few years they’ll be a distant memory as fans crack open a Great Lakes Dortmunder Gold in the right field beer garden and laugh about how those eyesores looked nothing like the original renderings.
