Cleveland Sports Forum

I think these guys are having pipe dreams. Can't see this being economically viable. Maybe 2022.

YOU BEAT ME TO IT.

major leagues are funding these new leagues for pre-draft players for some of the old NYPL; a 'wood bat league' for amateur players to replace the Appalachian League; they've turned the Pioneer League out in Idado Mt and vicinity into an "affiliated league" along with some of the current Indy Leagues.
One of my friends, a Scrappers fan, has suggested he'll keep going. The team won't be Indiians' affiliate; but most fans go for all the special attractions anyway. Will it work? ?

These 10 broke out in '20. Can they repeat?

How on earth do you evaluate performance over one-third of a season when trying to project forward? In some cases, it's easy. Mike Trout had been great for years, and he was great in 2020. Same for Jacob deGrom or Anthony Rendon or George Springer. You don't need to change your impressions of those players.

Yet others had unexpectedly good or poor seasons, and it's important to try to figure out if those are entirely because of small sample streaks or based on something more. So let's look at the 10 hitters who improved the most from 2019 to 2020 and the 10 who declined the most and see if we can determine how "real" those things might be.

We'll look only at batters who had at least 350 plate appearances in 2019 and 130 in 2020, in part because it gives us similar numbers of players (244 batters hit that mark in 2019, and 241 did in 2020). We'll use FanGraphs' Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+, where "100" is league average, and Trout's 164 mark last season can be read as "64% better than average."

First, we'll look at the 10 hitters who improved the most from 2019 to '20, and let them state their cases. We'll follow up soon with those who took the biggest steps back. Among the 10:

José Ramírez, Indians
+58 points, from 104 wRC+ to 163 wRC+

This one's easy, for once, because we can do better than think about his 2019 as being that of a "104 wRC+," or league-average, player. Think about him this way:

2017: 146 wRC+
2018: 146 wRC+
2019, first half: 68 wRC+
2019, second half: 176 wRC+
2020: 163 wRC+

What happened? Starting late in 2018 and extending into the middle of 2019, Ramírez was in a dreadful slump. We're oversimplifying the reasons and the dates a little here, but for the sake of brevity, it seems that it was largely about his efforts to beat the shift. That is, he tried to go to the opposite field, getting away from his power, and it made him considerably worse. This isn't just a theory, because his agent tweeted exactly this in June 2019. Soon after, he stopped trying and started mashing.

Just look at this chart comparing his pull rate (blue) with his OPS (red). It's not hard to see a connection.

[here's the link to the page to see the chart] https://www.mlb.com/news/analyzing-2020 ... ut-hitters

It's a little more complicated than this, but maybe not much more. Don't beat the shift, kids. It's how the shift beats you.

Verdict: The rebound began in 2019, not 2020. Real.

CLEVELAND -- Indians reliever Cam Hill took to Instagram on Tuesday morning to provide a less-than-ideal update.

The 26-year-old revealed he was in a car accident on Monday, posting a picture of himself laying in a hospital bed with his right wrist wrapped up, in addition to photos of his totaled car. The Indians provided an update on Tuesday afternoon, saying Hill underwent right wrist surgery by hand specialist Dr. Brian Chalkin in Tulsa, Okla., to address the injury to his lunate bone, which is located in the mid-carpal joint.

Hill made his debut on July 26 this past season and owned a 4.91 ERA in 18 appearances with 16 strikeouts and a 0.873 WHIP in 18 1/3 frames. His surgery was successful, and the Tribe is still working out more details on his rehab plan or the time frame for his return to play.

checking the photo he posted, he seems to be very happy about it all.

Here is a look at the players who have been non-tendered ahead of Wednesday's deadline, listed in descending order of their combined FanGraphs wins above replacement (WAR) from 2019 and '20. This list will be updated as additional names emerge.

Hanser Alberto, 2B/3B (2.5 fWAR) -- per source
Once put on waivers four separate times in one offseason, Alberto established himself as a fan favorite in Baltimore. The infielder hit .299 in his two years with the Orioles, including .394 against left-handed pitchers.

Brian Goodwin, OF (2.0 fWAR) -- per source
Cincinnati acquired Goodwin from the Angels before the 2020 Trade Deadline, but he struggled to a 47 OPS+ in 20 games with the Reds. He can play all three outfield positions, and he’s just one year removed from his best big league season with Los Angeles (17 homers, 108 OPS+).

Danny Santana, (1.7 fWAR) -- per source
Santana was the Rangers' Player of the Year in 2019, when he hit .283 with 28 home runs, 81 RBIs and a .534 slugging percentage. But an elbow surgery that eventually required surgery this past September has left the versatile switch-hitter's Opening Day status in question for '21.

Adam Duvall, OF (1.3 fWAR) -- per source
Duvall belted 16 homers and drove in 33 runs in just 57 games for the Braves in 2020, and he posted an above-average OPS+ in each of his two full seasons in Atlanta. Duvall also ranked 16th among hitters in barrel rate in that span.

Greg Garcia, INF/PH (1.2 fWAR) -- per report
Garcia ranked among the most effective pinch-hitters of the last several years, and he has started games at second base, third base and shortstop.

Tyler Naquin, OF (1.1 fWAR) -- per source
Naquin possesses one of the strongest throwing arms in baseball, but he ranked among MLB's worst outfield defenders by Statcast's metrics in 2020. He also struggled at the plate, slashing just .218/.248/.383 (68 OPS+) in the shortened campaign.

Carlos Rodón, LHP (1.0 fWAR)
The White Sox picked him third overall in the 2014 Draft out of North Carolina State and brought him to the Majors the next April. But injuries have hindered Rodón’s development, and he has pitched just over 40 combined innings in the past two seasons, with a 5.74 ERA.

Maikel Franco, 3B (0.8 fWAR) -- per source
Franco led the Royals with 16 doubles and 38 RBIs, but MLB Trade Rumors projected that Franco could have more than doubled his $2.95 million salary from 2020 via arbitration. The Royals could still bring back Franco at a lower price, though Kelvin Gutierrez, the club's No. 25 prospect, is waiting in the wings at third base.

Nomar Mazara, OF (0.7 fWAR)
Once a top-20 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, Mazara has been a below-average hitter by OPS+ in each of his five MLB seasons despite huge raw power. He hit just .228/.295/.294 in his first season with the White Sox but still is only 25 years old.

Chasen Shreve, LHP (0.2 fWAR) -- per source
The southpaw reliever is coming off a strong season with the Mets in which he struck out 34 batters in 25 innings, with a 3.96 ERA inflated by two rough outings in late September. Lefties were just 2-for-32 (.063) against him.

José Martínez, DH/OF (-0.2 fWAR) -- per report
Martínez was a dangerous masher for the Cardinals as recently as 2018, but his bat has slipped over the past two seasons (90 OPS+). Martínez's defensive lapses make him unplayable at times in corner outfield spots and he's best suited as a designated hitter, and so he will likely need to wait to see what happens with the DH in the National League in 2021 to know the breadth of his market.

For the 29 games out there who are trying to decide if they should invest in Tyler Naquin, here's a really really long story with various graphs omitted written on Sept 5 about how despite never walking Tyler had at last it all together.
That's the point when even I was saying that Hey, he's OK after all despite refusing to take a walk.

Tyler's agent would prefer that the rest of the season be overlooked. From Sept 5 despite only one injury and not as serious as he usually sustains. Those after the glowing report numbers are as follows:

63 AB 9 hits 2 doubles no triples or homes 3 RBI. A mammoth 4 walks vs. 24 strikeouts. That means a slash line of 143/194/175. Tyler seems to fade every year that he stays moderately healthy. Quite apparent that pitchers figure out how to handle him and he cannot adjust back.

here's the positive report based on his small sample of 20 games

Entering Friday, Tyler Naquin had walked just once this season.
It came in his seventh game of the campaign, a 6-1 win over the Pirates on Aug. 19. Pittsburgh reliever Tyler Bashlor handed out the free pass in the eighth. Naquin would score from first base just one batter later.
You'd think a walk shortage would severely cut into a hitter's production. If you looked at Naquin's .300 on-base percentage, you'd be right, if just for a moment. But then you'd travel just one column to the right along Naquin's slash line and note the .582 slugging percentage.
Well, that's one way to explain how the left-handed hitter, despite just one walk in 2020, could serve as one of the Indians' top bats this year. Extra-base pop.
But just one walk? What the ...
Taking up residence again in the properly maligned Indians outfield following his season-ending ACL injury in 2019, Naquin has slashed .284/.300/.582. He's somehow overcome just one walk in 70 plate appearances by slashing six doubles, a triple and slugging four homers in 19 games.
His .299 ISO (focuses just on extra-base hits), is well above his .180 career mark.
His two-homer game on Wednesday in Kansas City also provided the five runs Cleveland would need to win the series and head into the weekend as the top team in the AL Central.
Naquin's 126 wRC+ in 2020 (100 is league average) would look good anywhere. It shines bright enough to give you sunburn when compared to the rest of the Tribe outfield's production.
What does that mean in a sample size that would, in a normal year, be nearing 1/8 of the season? Probably not enough to make any proclamations, especially for a player who re-emerged as very useful in 2019 but hasn't been well above average offensively since his rookie year of 2016.
But this isn’t a normal season. It’s small sample sizes that will determine more fates than ever before in the pandemic-shortened campaign.
To avoid a "is this real?" discussion transforming into some "what is reality?" rabbit hole better kept for your 3 a.m. Youtube browsing, let's just peek under the hood to see how the 29-year-old has been producing. From there, it doesn't take much to see some notable items in the profile.
His hits would need to be meaningful to overcome a 1.4 percent walk rate. That's low even by his own standards.
It's the fourth-lowest rate by anyone's standards this season.
Normally that'd be reason cynicism. Full stop.
But Naquin isn't just swinging wildly like a frantic gardener who just uncovered a beehive. His chase rate (32.9) -- the percentage of swings on pitches outsize the zone -- is actually below his career rate (34.6).
At the same time, while also seeing fewer pitches in the zone, he's swinging at strikes more frequently, and he's missing fewer of them.
Simply, it's better to swing at strikes. The league is slugging .504 on pitches inside the zone this year. That drops to .206 on those outside.
Meanwhile, his overall swing rate of 51.9 percent is right in line with his career.
In other words, it's not a matter of more swings. He's just been a bit more judicious with them.
And by putting those balls in play earlier in the count, he hasn't been given many opportunities to walk. He's only reached a three-ball count in eight of his 70 plate appearances. That's 11.4 percent, compared to the league rate, nearly 22 percent.
Even when he has expanded his zone, the majority of those swings have come on pitches below the zone, the sort of pitches that Naquin can still handle.
For example, let's focus on the highlighted portion of the zones below.
Only a small portion of the offerings in those boxes would end up strikes, but Naquin has managed to slug .560 on the 51 pitches tossed there.
Yet, pitchers keep putting them there, particularly offspeed and breaking balls. Here, you can see where the majority of those types of offerings have been to Naquin.
When you combine an ability to handle lower pitches with the fact that Naquin is slugging .625 against breaking balls and .933 against offspeed pitches (compared to a .417 slugging against "fastballs"), we can see the league trend of throwing fewer fastballs might play in his favor.
Now, we're talking such limited samples that we'd be pumping the brakes pretty hard in a typical year. But even a full 60-game season might not be enough to determine anything of substance.
Regardless, Naquin is hitting the ball with the same sort of authority we saw in his encouraging rookie year and through stretches last year.
While his overall average exit velocity is hanging around his typical career norm, more important, the percentage of balls he hits 95 mph or harder -- Statcast defines that contact as a hard-hit ball -- is up to 46.2, which would put him tied for 50th-best in baseball with Mookie Betts.
That rate is also higher than his 2016 season (45.1 percent).
But hitting the ball harder at a higher rate wouldn't mean as much if the contact found its way into the ground. To Naquin's credit, a shift toward raising his average launch angle slightly, which seemed to begin last year (12.4 degrees), has continued to climb a bit, sitting at 14.1 degrees.
That hasn't necessarily resulted in more fly balls, but his line drive rate is up four percent from his career mark. That means more of his hard contact is being driven over the head of infielders.
And it's a lot harder to get an extra-base hit on a grounder.
Some of this is also reflected in his barrels.
His barrel rate per plate appearance -- a barrel is Statcast's ideal combination of launch angle and exit velocity -- also sits at 11.5 percent, which would position him as the 12th best in baseball if he qualified.
Naquin would sit between Luis Robert and Matt Chapman.
Are these all signs that Naquin has emerged as a legitimate threat in the Tribe's production-desperate outfield? Or, are these just numbers that have been inflated by a good two weeks at the plate?
To that, I throw up my arms and point to the calendar.
It's 2020. I have no idea.
Can Naquin continue to succeed with a microscopic walk rate? Probably not. And the sample size is so small, he's yet to even contribute a hit against a left-hander in nine at-bats.
This isn't a lot to go on here.
But some of this is proof that if Naquin focuses his attention to the right pitches in the right locations and limits his desire to chase, driving the ball when making contact, his ability to help a run-starved unit won't be a mirage.

Very good and bad parts of 2016 would have never happened without Naquin. We will never know how the injuries changed his career or not. Not bad for a player that a few here did not think would ever make the major league team.

Potential middle-infield free-agent targets for the Cleveland Indians


By Zack Meisel Dec 3, 2020 25
CLEVELAND — The Indians’ 2021 payroll is projected to be about one-third of what it was a few years ago. An article about the team’s potential free-agent pursuits, then, might seem as timely as a piece that ranks the top Cleveland beaches.

But let’s take a step back and examine the club’s situation. They have a bunch of holes to fill: first base, second base, eventually shortstop, there’s the whole the-outfield-was-historically-inept-last-season thing and maybe they could use another reliever.

First, they’ll look internally at a bunch of young players itching to prove themselves as capable major leaguers. Josh Naylor, Jake Bauers and Bobby Bradley are all candidates to earn playing time at first base, for instance. Yu Chang could at least vie for the utility infielder role. Ernie Clement, recently added to the 40-man roster, figures to compete for that spot as well. Oscar Mercado will get another chance to claim center-field duties. (In case you missed it, the team opted to part ways with Delino DeShields Jr. and Tyler Naquin on Wednesday.)

They’ll also aim to acquire a big league-ready position player or two via trade, either in exchange for Francisco Lindor or a starting pitcher (or perhaps both).

Filling all of these vacancies while bidding to field a competitive team without dabbling into free agency seems like a tall order. The Indians, at minimum, need a placeholder before their wave of middle-infield prospects crashes onto Lake Erie’s shores.

At some point in 2021 or 2022, Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias and Owen Miller figure to factor into the equation. But thanks to the lack of a minor-league season in 2020, unless they replenish the infield strictly through trades, they might benefit from signing a veteran stopgap, just as they did when they struck a deal with César Hernández a couple of days before last Christmas. And, hey, Hernández is on this list again.

The Indians, obviously, won’t be burning through their checking account. If they do opt to pursue a middle infielder to provide some stability in 2021, they’ll have a plethora of options, following a slew of non-tenders across the league on Wednesday. There will be a stark contrast between supply and demand, with a long list of free agents and a short list of teams itching to spend money.

(Note: We’ll use salary estimates from FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors, though bear in mind, during this pandemic-affected offseason, projecting such things is as difficult a task as ever. Not every player has a projection from both sources. We’ll turn to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections for players’ 2021 outlooks.)

At that price? Don’t hold your breath
DJ LeMahieu
MLBTR: 4 years, $68 million
FG: 3 years, $42 million
2020 slash line: .364/.421/.590
Opening Day 2021 age: 32
Projected 2021 slash line: .293/.351/.449

While LeMahieu would be an ideal candidate to plug into the leadoff spot and play second base, many believe he’ll wind up back in the Bronx. Meanwhile, absolutely no one believes the Indians would dangle the necessary cash to instead lure him to Cleveland.

Didi Gregorius
MLBTR: 3 years, $39 million
FG: 3 years, $45 million
2020 slash line: .284/.339/.488
Opening Day 2021 age: 31
Projected 2021 slash line: .261/.318/.446

Gregorius has certainly proven he can hit well at Progressive Field — just ask Corey Kluber — but he’s destined to receive a multiyear deal for a decent chunk of change, so he’s headed elsewhere.


Didi Gregorius still haunts some Cleveland fans’ dreams. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
Andrelton Simmons
MLBTR: 1 year, $12 million
FG: 3 years, $42 million
2020 slash line: .297/.346/.356
Opening Day 2021 age: 31
Projected 2021 slash line: .278/.333/.400

From 2016-19, Lindor and Simmons claimed all four AL Gold Glove awards at shortstop, so why not replace one with the other? Well, because he’s likely to earn more than the Indians want to dole out.

Kolten Wong
MLBTR: 2 years, $16 million
FG: 3 years, $29 million
2020 slash line: .265/.350/.326
Opening Day 2021 age: 30
Projected 2021 slash line: .261/.343/.390

The Cardinals elected to decline his $12.5 million option, making him a free agent. Wong has typically been a league-average hitter and a gifted defender at second base.

Marcus Semien
MLBTR: 1 year, $14 million
FG: 3 years, $51 million
2020 slash line: .223/.305/.374
Opening Day 2021 age: 30
Projected 2021 slash line: .253/.336/.435

Semien had a rough 2020 after finishing third in the MVP balloting in 2019, when he registered a jarring 7.6 WAR for Oakland. The projections on his next contract vary greatly, but he could certainly price himself out of Cleveland’s range.

The intriguing division
Money will obviously be the determining factor here. The Indians seem like the type of team that may prefer to just wait for someone to fall into their lap, rather than going out and scooping up the first middle infielder of the bunch.

Tommy La Stella
MLBTR: 2 years, $14 million
FG: 2 years, $14 million
2020 slash line: .281/.370/.449
Opening Day 2021 age: 32
Projected 2021 slash line: .284/.355/.449

La Stella was an All-Star in 2019, enjoying a career year until he broke his leg. He was great again in 2020 for the Athletics and Angels, as he sported a 129 wRC+ (meaning he created runs at a rate 29 percent better than league average). He doesn’t strike out much and he has experience at first, second and third.

Jurickson Profar
MLBTR: 1 year, $7 million
FG: 2 years, $15 million
2020 slash line: .278/.343/.428
Opening Day 2021 age: 28
Projected 2021 slash line: .249/.332/.427

Once the top prospect in baseball before injuries interfered, Profar has now played for three teams in three years and he soon could proceed to a fourth. He hit 20 home runs in 2018 and 2019 and was on pace to nail that number again in 2020 had the season been 162 games. He has played all over the infield and even spent time in the outfield in 2020.

Kiké Hernández
FG: 2 years, $12 million
2020 slash line: .230/.270/.410
Opening Day 2021 age: 29
Projected 2021 slash line: .248/.327/.446

He has long been the Dodgers’ sparkplug, a solid contributor at the plate who has manned every infield and outfield position during his seven years in the majors.

Jonathan Schoop
FG: 2 years, $16 million
2020 slash line: .278/.324/.475
Opening Day 2021 age: 29
Projected 2021 slash line: .249/.298/.446

Schoop rarely walks and strikes out quite often, but he has still managed to be a pretty solid hitter for much of his career, ranging from about league average to 20 percent better than league average in five of the last six seasons. He signed a one-year, $6.1 million deal with Detroit for 2020 and might have to settle for something similar in 2021.


Could César Hernández stick in Cleveland for another year? (David Richard / USA Today)
Familiar faces
César Hernández
MLBTR: 1 year, $6 million
FG: 2 years, $16 million
2020 slash line: .283/.355/.408
Opening Day 2021 age: 30
Projected 2021 slash line: .269/.349/.386

Hernández said he’d love to remain with the Indians, and the feeling was mutual — of course, money will determine whether any of that actually matters. He was a nice fit near the top of Cleveland’s order, a switch-hitting doubles machine who batted between Lindor and José Ramírez and provided Gold Glove-winning defense at second base.

Brad Miller
FG: 1 year, $2 million
2020 slash line: .232/.357/.451
Opening Day 2021 age: 31
Projected 2021 slash line:.229/.325/.426

Miller torched the Indians’ decision-makers on his way out the door in April 2019. He moved on to Philadelphia and St. Louis, where he mashed. Miller owns an .853 OPS with 20 homers in 341 plate appearances over the last two seasons.

Jason Kipnis
2020 slash line: .237/.341/.404
Opening Day 2021 age: Turns 34 on April 3
Projected 2021 slash line: .230/.305/.389

Kipnis spent nine seasons as the Indians’ second baseman and occasional center fielder. He posted about league-average numbers offensively in 2020, thanks to a boosted walk rate, but he’ll be 34 next season and the Indians exhibited no interest in bringing him back a year ago.


Jason Kipnis made his return to Progressive Field with the Cubs in 2020. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
The rest of the bunch
Freddy Galvis
FG: 2 years, $12 million
2020 slash line: .220/.308/.404
Opening Day 2021 age: 31
Projected 2021 slash line: .236/.291/.379

Galvis can play second or short, and he can do so every day. From 2015-19, he appeared in 151, 158, 162, 162 and 147 games. He has twice hit 20-plus homers and his 91 wRC+ in 2020 was a career best.

Marwin González
FG: 2 years, $16 million
2020 slash line: .211/.286/.320
Opening Day 2021 age: 32
Projected 2021 slash line: .250/.322/.410

He had a down year in 2020, but González is the type of player the Indians typically treasure — and not just because he owns a .900 OPS against them in his career. He has played all over the infield and outfield.

Jonathan Villar
FG: 1 year, $6 million
2020 slash line: .232/.301/.292
Opening Day 2021 age: 29
Projected 2021 slash line: .252/.321/.394

His 2020 season was ugly (66 wRC+), but Villar posted a 4.0-WAR, 24-homer season in 2019, a rare bright spot in Baltimore. He’s also routinely at or near the top of the stolen-base leaderboard.

Hanser Alberto
2020 slash line: .283/.306/.393
Opening Day 2021 age: 28
Projected 2021 slash line: .281/.311/.402

There’s more to life than batting average, but Alberto did hit .283 and .305 the last two seasons for the Orioles. He owns a .350 average and an .831 OPS against lefties in his career. Alberto has played primarily second and third base.

Get ready to settle
There will be plenty of players forced to settle for modest one-year deals or minor-league pacts with a spring training invite. Even some players already mentioned above might fall into this category. There are simply too many infielders and not enough demand.

Asdrúbal Cabrera: He turned 35 last month, but somehow, he keeps humming along. He’s still close to a league-average hitter who can hit for some pop (eight homers in 52 games in 2020). He spent last season at first and third base. He hasn’t played shortstop since 2018, and he hasn’t played well at shortstop since long before that.

Derek Dietrich: For seven straight years, the St. Ignatius product has posted a wRC+ greater than 100, but he hasn’t always done it in a traditional way. The last two years, his average has plummeted (.187, .197), but he has walked a lot and hit some home runs, so his on-base and slugging percentages sparkle. He has played first, second, third and left, though none of them exceptionally well.

Brian Dozier: Dozier barely played in 2020 and he’ll be 34 in May, so, no, he may never recapture his peak form, which powered four strong seasons for the Twins. He was still a league-average hitter in 2019, but he was no longer the guy who played every day, deposited plenty of home run balls into the seats and stole some bases.

Brock Holt: He suffered through a lousy season at the plate after two years as an above-average hitter. He might be best suited for a utility role, as he hasn’t logged more than 367 plate appearances since 2015.

Eduardo Núñez: He’ll be 33 on Opening Day, he only appeared in two games last season for the Mets and he had a rough 2019 and an uninspiring 2018. He was, however, a valuable cog for the Twins, Giants and Red Sox from 2015-17.

Joe Panik: He was at his best with San Francisco from 2014-17, as he logged three seasons of above-average offense, including a 3.8-WAR campaign in 2015, when he batted .312 with an .833 OPS. Of course, that was a long time ago. Over the last three seasons: a grand total of 0.6 WAR.

Eric Sogard: He’s 34 and is probably best suited as a utility guy. He had an outstanding 2019 season but suffered a freefall in 2020.

Dee Strange-Gordon: He logged only 82 plate appearances in 2020, and they weren’t pretty. He can still swipe bases, but his low walk rate and lack of power hinder his offensive value.

Regarding Naquin:

Harold Reynolds talked yesterday about "platoon casualties" all over MLB. These are guys who hit everyone in the minors but get platooned at a very early age in the majors.

Harold said, and it's been said elsewhere, that hitting left handers helps a hitter develop. They did so in the minors. And platooning stunts their development.

I think there is some validity to this and see Naquin as a potential example of that very syndrome.

Indians outfield, inept in 2020, has more questions than answers for 2021


By Zack Meisel Dec 3, 2020 19
CLEVELAND — Here’s what we know about the Indians’ 2021 outfield: For it to perform worse than it did in 2020 seems mathematically, scientifically, logically and humanly impossible.

We also know the outfield probably won’t include Delino DeShields Jr. or Tyler Naquin, as the club severed ties this week with the two veterans as they were both eligible for arbitration.

What else do we know about the group?

The Indians really hope Oscar Mercado is their long-term center fielder.

At the moment, Mercado’s chief competitor for the center-field job is Bradley Zimmer, but he hasn’t played regularly since 2017. The only obstacle for Mercado would be if the club acquired someone in a trade, which they certainly could do, as they dangle Francisco Lindor. Otherwise, it’s up to Mercado to prove that his dismal 2020 season — a .128/.174/.174 slash line in 36 games — was an aberration.

Jordan Luplow will be tasked with punishing lefties again.

There’s talk every spring about the Indians wanting to learn whether Luplow can handle daily outfield duties rather than serving strictly as a platoon partner. He mustered only five hits in 41 at-bats against righties in 2020, which doesn’t help his case. Plus, with Josh Naylor, Daniel Johnson, Jake Bauers and Nolan Jones in the mix, the club has plenty of left-handed-hitting options to pair with Luplow. So while it would be greatly beneficial if Luplow could torture righties in anywhere near the same fashion he does lefties, the Indians certainly don’t need to force the issue.

Daniel Johnson is ready for a chance.

As it stands, he could receive that chance. Parting ways with Naquin signaled that the Indians are prepared to at least grant Johnson an opportunity to play regularly against righties. Johnson tallied only 13 plate appearances in 2020, but he has proven in the minors that he can, at minimum, hit righties and wield a rocket of a left arm. In 2019, he posted a .290/.361/.507 slash line between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus.

Daniel Johnson's splits
2017
A
0.915
0.727
2018
AA
0.822
0.491
2019
AA/AAA
0.906
0.780
There’s also a lot that we don’t know about the Indians’ crop of outfielders. Antonetti pointed to the lack of a minor-league season in 2020 as a primary reason that the team “will go into the offseason with a little less certainty than we had hoped.”

What on Earth do they do with Jake Bauers?

He’s out of options, so he’ll either make the Opening Day roster, endure the waiver process or join another team. He spent the duration of the 2020 season at the club’s alternate site in Eastlake, so what he might be able to offer in 2021 is shrouded in mystery. In 811 big-league plate appearances, he owns a .214/.314/.377 slash line, but he recorded all of that output prior to his 24th birthday.

How soon could Nolan Jones factor into the equation?

It’s probably a safe bet that Jones won’t be on the Opening Day roster as a result of service-time manipulation and the fact that he has only logged 49 games at Double A. In addition, he has very little experience in the outfield, and that seems likely to be where he’d be initially assigned upon his arrival in the majors.

The Indians have hinted that they prefer not to shift José Ramírez to second base, and Jones played some outfield during instructional camp in Arizona in October. Antonetti said the Indians will “continue to explore positional flexibility” for Jones, which is code for: As long as he can handle the outfield — and the team is confident he can, given his athleticism — that’s probably his most convenient and swiftest route to the majors.

Can Franmil Reyes play outfield yet, or has that ship sailed?

The story last winter was that Reyes had shed 18 pounds, sworn off sweets and worked on his agility and footwork at the club’s complex in the Dominican Republic. Then the pandemic arrived and Reyes no longer had the access to that level of instruction. He wound up serving as Cleveland’s designated hitter for all but one of his starts in 2020.

The Indians haven’t settled on him simply occupying that role moving forward, though. He remains in consideration for an outfield spot.

“If you ask Franmil, he’s in the infield mix, too,” Antonetti quipped. “If anyone saw him take ground balls pregame last year, he was pretty into it. Franmil is committed that he does not want to be a DH. He demonstrated last year that he wants to put in the work to be an option for us in the outfield. That’s probably where we see him more likely than him playing second base for us. But as we’ve told Franmil, we will be building the best team. And if we can build the best team with him in the outfield for us or playing a position, that will be ideal. And he’s working to do that.”

Where will Josh Naylor play?

Mr. Late-September turned heads with his postseason performance against the Yankees, albeit in just a two-game sample. The wild-haired, helmet-losing hitter has experience at first base and in the corner-outfield spots. He’s 23, has conquered minor-league pitching and appears destined to start somewhere, but his ultimate position might depend on how the pieces fit around him.

Why can't Franmil play 1B now that Santana is gone? He apparently takes ground balls.

As a general rule - this is the season the team could actually get a real outfielder or 2. The market is flooded with them, some pretty good ones will be going very cheap.

In an offseason where Eddie Rosario is literally cut to save his salary - well that says it all.

An example of this year's level of FA's - who were freaking CUT!

Law: These non-tendered players are now among the best free agents available


By Keith Law Dec 3, 2020 57
Wednesday’s tender deadline brought a slew of non-tenders, some of them surprises, some of them rational, and some nothing more than teams being cheap for their own sake.

Here are the six guys from the non-tender pool who caught my eye and would make an updated ranking of the best free agents on the market.

David Dahl, 27, OF
Dahl’s non-tender was the biggest surprise to me of Wednesday’s spate of releases, as he was an All-Star in 2019 and was due to make under $3 million in arbitration. His 2020 was a disaster, but it’s a tiny sample and he was injured for part of the season … although injuries are a huge part of his professional history. He missed nearly all of 2013 and 2017 due to injuries, and about half of 2015 and 2018. Those are good reasons not to sign him to a long-term deal, but for one year, he’s got the power and ability to play an average center field that should make any team without a regular center fielder interested in him. He’d be the highest-ranking non-tender on my free agent list.

Eddie Rosario, 29, OF
Rosario’s non-tender was widely expected, as he was a third-time eligible player who could compare his production to that of free agents as well as other 5+ players, and he’s probably not worth that to a team like the Twins with a ready replacement available in Alex Kirilloff. Once a speedy center fielder whom the Twins tried to move to second base, Rosario turned into a low-OBP power hitter who can only play an outfield corner, and not that well. He could have taken home over $10 million this year, but this profile is too common, and players like him are always going to find supply exceeds demand. He’s more of a fringe regular, probably a $5-7 million guy in a normal market.

Brian Goodwin, 30, OF
Goodwin’s an above-average defender in left, passable but below average in center, with some power and no appreciable platoon split. He’s not a regular, but he’d be the best fourth outfield option on a number of contenders’ rosters, and wasn’t going to get much more than $3 million or so in arbitration, which his play in 2019 — his only year with something like regular playing time in the majors — more than justified.

Kyle Schwarber, 28, “OF”
Seems like it wasn’t that long ago that Cubs fans were yelling at me for preferring Michael Conforto, taken four picks after Schwarber in the 2014 draft, to the Indiana catcher. Schwarber has no position, but over 2018-2019 he hit .249/.352/.530 against right-handed pitching. He should be someone’s platoon DH for $5 million.

Archie Bradley, 28, RHP
Bradley’s fastball velocity slipped about 1 mph last year, but the changeup he’s been using the last two years — after two years without a changeup or splitter at all — has been very effective, to go with the plus curveball he’s always had. He’s probably not the 15 K/9 closer teams want but he could be a valuable 100-inning reliever if that changeup holds up over a larger sample and could help him if he has to turn a lineup over. He might have gotten up to $6 million in arbitration, especially with 28 career saves, but that’s reasonable for the type of multi-inning reliever he could be.

Carlos Rodón, 28, LHP
Rodón was worked very hard at NC State, and between that and a tough delivery that puts some stress on his shoulder, he’s had a hard time staying healthy in pro ball. His fastball crept back up in 2020 after a huge drop on his return from rehab in 2019, but he’s still below his pre-surgery peak. He’s a decent candidate for a team willing to make him just a twice-through-the-order starter, letting him go heavy on his out-pitch slider.

(Photo of David Dahl: Mike Stobe / Getty Images)

Isn't there some rule that you can't re-sign non-tendered players from your team until May?

Tribe didn't want to offer contracts to DeShields, Naquin and Rodrigues. Can they re-sign with the Indians if they can't find a job?

Not sure why Naquin not facing lefties keeps him from being a selective hitter against Righties; or explains why his best starts have ended in bad finishes.
i do see him on the list of OFs that the Tigers might be interested in. I guess he's hit pretty well against them. Well not great: 261/341/401. Much better against the Twins: 303/369/475. And really torches the Royals: 313/382/619.

So with the exception of the White Sox he does best against teams he plays against the most. Which proves something, but not sure what