Still way too many second-rate outfielders. Allen and Zimmer are fine defenders but offensively limited. And there's really no potential star in the farm system until you get down to the kids in Arizona: George Valera age 17 and possibly Johnathan Rodriguez age 18. Long time before they make it to the majors.

Once again our man Bauer....

By Rob Arthur 4h ago 10
From​ a spike in​ fastball velocity to an​ explosion of home​ runs, there have​ been​ several new​ trends impacting​​ the league in recent years. Pitchers have taken a beating because of that increase in long balls, but this year there are signs that they’ve started to adapt and fight back. One of the ways they’re doing that is by adopting the philosophy of tunneling.

Pitching philosophies can just as often be snake oil as they are valid, but the ideas surrounding tunneling are supported by plentiful scientific evidence (not to mention common sense). In plain English, the concept of tunneling is to keep the batter guessing about a pitch’s destination for as long as possible. Hurlers achieve that by releasing their pitches so that they travel together over the first part of their flight to the plate (in the “tunnel”), before diverging in the last 20 feet.

Tunneling works because batters are no longer able to track a pitch in the final third of its flight. If two pitches — say a curveball and a fastball — look identical up to that point, a batter can only guess where they’ll end up. If he or she ends up guessing wrong, more often than not, the result is a swinging strike or weak contact.

Many philosophies sound promising in theory, but the benefits of tunneling are also proven in practice. Neurological studies support the idea that batters must decide whether to swing or not before the end of the pitch’s flight, and on-field evidence shows that highly-tunneled pitches tend to result in better outcomes from the pitcher’s perspective.

Given the efficacy of tunneling, it stands to reason that front offices and pitchers alike should already have begun to adopt it. And unsurprisingly, the uptake in tunneling has been rapid. Baseball Prospectus measures tunneling using the ratio of distance between where two pitches end up and where they were at the “tunnel point”— the last moment a batter can track the ball. That ratio has spiked in the last few years, to such an extent that an average pitcher today would have been a 75th-percentile tunneler in 2010.
There’s no doubt that some of that increase is due to pitchers like Trevor Bauer, who came into the league with tunneling in mind. Bauer debuted in 2012, and year after year registers one of the highest tunneling ratios of any pitcher.

But it’s not just new pitchers driving the trend. Even veteran throwers have upped their tunneling game, albeit not as much: while the league has a whole has increased by around 0.6, pitchers who’ve been in the game since 2010 have spiked by about two-thirds as much. Cole Hamels is an interesting example, having raised his tunneling score almost every successive year since 2008 (the first year for which we have data).

There are mechanical tweaks pitchers can pursue to improve their tunneling, but some adjustments can be made using the pitches a hurler already has. By tuning the sequencing and frequency with which they employ the pitch types most conducive to tunneling, a pitcher can adopt some of the benefits without having to redo their delivery.

Of the most commonly-used pitch pairings, the slider or curve combined with a four-seam fastball, is one of the most conducive to tunneling. While fastballs appear to rise, a good curve spins downwards, so if a batter misidentifies the pitch at the tunnel point, he’s likely to miss badly.

And when a hitter misses, it’s likely going to result in either a mistimed swing or contact on the ball either too high or too low, depending on whether the hitter was expecting a rising or falling pitch instead. In the current launch angle-obsessed league, with hitters employing more pronounced uppercuts to put balls in the air, a miss of an inch vertically may turn an arcing fly ball into a soft grounder, or a stinging line drive into a pop-up. Last year, when I asked some pitchers and catchers how they were trying to counter the home run surge, they pointed to the fastball/curve combo as a key tactic.

They weren’t bluffing. In 2014, about 16 percent of all pitch pairs were sliders or curves combined with fastballs. This year, that’s closer to 20 percent. Some of that increase is due to a leaguewide shift in pitch type usage. On average, pitchers have begun to abandon their sinkers, using them four percent less than before, and replaced them with curves and sliders, using each about two percent more. Pitch pairs that used to play off sinking movement now couple better with the rise of the four-seamer.
It’s hard to tell whether the proliferation of tunneling brought us to this point, or the adoption of a trio of pitch types that are suited to this particular era. Either way, pitchers are doing something new and interesting: stacking pitches with opposite movement, like the fastball and curve, so that it’s harder and harder to tell where a given pitch will end up. Whether that new strategy will reverse the offensive explosion of the last few years remains to be seen, but this season at least, runs per game are down to their lowest level since 2015.



Rob Arthur is a baseball contributor for The Athletic. He can also be found on FiveThirtyEight. Follow Rob on Twitter @No_Little_Plans.

Starting 9: Trevor Bauer is a Cy Young contender; what to do with Francisco Mejía; and more

Travis Sawchik 7h ago 14

1:​ Trevor Bauer​ ought to​ be a lock for his​ first All-Star Game​ next month, and​ his​ torrid pitching​ continued Saturday​​ as he maintains spots near the top of multiple pitching categories. In fact, after his Saturday start, Bauer led all American League pitchers in FanGraphs wins above replacement (3.9), jumping over Justin Verlander and Luis Severino. Bauer is not just a deserving All-Star, but as the season reaches its halfway point, he’s also made himself into an AL Cy Young contender in a year littered with dominant pitching performances.

2: Bauer’s improvement has been fueled by a number of factors, but the most glaring is his strikeout surge. Bauer struck out 11 more Tigers on Saturday. Bauer trails only Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole in strikeouts per nine innings (11.78). In the past month, Bauer is striking out a remarkable 14 batters per nine innings and 39.6 percent of batters faced, rates we see from elite relievers.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/QuarterlyThir ... mobile.mp4

It’s a remarkable rise as at the end of last May he ranked last in the American League in ERA (6.00).

3: What’s different about Bauer? Many readers are likely familiar with his decision to add a slider to complement his curveball and fastball, a pitch with a different shape and speed. The slider ranks 14th in baseball among sliders in run value, according to Pitch Info’s pitch values. Batters are hitting just .102 against the pitch with a .133 slugging mark. Batters are whiffing 39.2 percent of the time against his slider, which ranks 32nd out of 102 starting pitchers to throw at least 100 sliders. His curveball is generating whiffs at a 39.1 percent mark.

Of course, it’s difficult to isolate a pitch’s effectiveness independent of other pitches and characteristics of a pitch.

A pitch’s value is tied not only to its own movement, velocity and location — the slider is now the shape and speed Bauer generally desires and has improved through the year — but the value is also in how it interplays with other pitches like his curveball and fastball and how it can enhance those pitches.

But Bauer also worked on developing his changeup this offseason, to complement the slider, and we’ve begun to see him trust the pitch more often and get whiffs with the pitch. It’s generating whiffs at a 37.2 percent clip, which ranks 25th among the 99 starting pitchers to throw at least 100 changeups.

What it all means is Bauer, at times, has four plus pitches at his disposal. He has pitches that break away from righties and into lefties like his curveball and slider, and pitches with opposite movement like his changeup and two-seamer.

Those new pitches, along with improved command (career-low walk rate) of his fastball and career-high fastball velocity (94.6 mph), have given the Indians another ace.

4: José Ramírez hit his 23rd home run of the season Sunday, which pushed him into a three-way tie for the AL home run lead. However, Ramírez might have picked a poor time to try to be the American League’s best player as the game’s best player, Mike Trout, is having his best season. The top five WAR leaders — Trout, Ramírez, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor and Aaron Judge — all reside in the AL.

5: During the Indians’ seven-game winning streak, they have racked up a plus-45 run differential, which pushes them to the sixth overall spot in run differential. By that improving metric they appear more and more like the super team they were expected to be. However, the winning streak includes sweeps of the lowly Tigers and White Sox. Because of the historically poor nature of the AL Central and unbalanced scheduling, the Indians benefit from the second-weakest schedule in the majors, according to TeamRankings.com. Only Detroit has had a more favorable schedule.

6. Shane Bieber is a young pitcher to get excited about, and he has surpassed Triston McKenzie as the club’s top pitching prospect in the eyes of some evaluators. While Bieber’s command has long received praise, the breaking ball he used to elicit the lion’s share of his nine strikeouts in seven innings last week was encouraging. Bieber is more than a strike-thrower. He can miss bats.



7: Yan Gomes and Roberto Pérez combine to give the Indians’ the fourth-best framing mark — 7.4 runs saved above average through framing — according to Baseball Prospectus. Not every club fields two effective defensive catchers. The Indians also ranked fourth last year. Still there is also a case to be made for Francisco Mejía to receive reps and at-bats at catcher.

8: Mejía projects as a plus hitter, particularly at catcher, where the Indians have struggled greatly against right-handed pitching. Pérez and Gomes have combined for a 56 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (100 is average) this season, meaning they are 44 percent below the major-league average hitter against right-handed pitching. That’s good for a 27th ranking in the majors.

While Gomes has bounced back from an uneven 2017 to put together a solid offensive campaign (108) to date, the issues are tied to Pérez, who is batting overall just .149 with a 33 wRC+.

Production at catcher against right-handed pitching has been an ongoing problem as this author has noted, making a case this spring for Mejía to get reps against right-handed pitching. While we don’t know how important catcher sequencing is or having a veteran presence behind the plate is for a contending club — Pérez is a cerebral catcher whom Bauer enjoys throwing to — we do know Mejía has an elite, 80-grade arm and rates as a plus framer by BP’s framing metrics. He’s not a minus defensively. The catching calculous is complicated.

9: The Indians don’t seem in a rush to make a decision on how to break up their catching surplus but Mejía could provide an edge, especially in the postseason when teams like the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox have few lineup voids. The Indians value catcher defense over catcher offense, but Mejía could boost offensive production without draining considerable defensive value.

Of course there is the question of just what is going on with Mejía’s bat in Triple A. After a dreadful start to the year, he’s boosted his slash line, but it’s still modest at .251/.301/.396 in the season. It’s also possible Mejía is simply bored in Triple A and could benefit from a challenge. Francisco Lindor raised his offensive profile at the major-league level. We might have seen something similar with Austin Meadows in Pittsburgh this season when his production in the majors exceeds that of what he accomplished in Triple A. Mejía could perhaps provide a similar spark.

STAT OF THE WEEK: -90,204

Indians’ attendance decline through June 14, according to FanGraphs, or 2,910 fans per game. It’s not just an Indians problem as baseball attendance is missing about 2 million fans. The decline is also not just tied to poor weather. While total MLB attendance was off last year’s mark by 8.6 percent through the first two frigid weeks of the season, it’s remained off 6.1 percent since that period. Perhaps part of the reason is the number of tanking teams in the AL, which has suffered more of an attendance decline than the NL.

Four AL teams, the Indians (98.6 percent), Astros, Yankees and Red Sox, have playoff odds of 98 percent and greater. Nine other teams have less than 5 percent odds. There is not a lot of competitive, compelling baseball in the AL this season, particularly the AL Central.


HE SAID IT

“I’m actually encouraged to talk to my teammates and share information this year. That had been discouraged in the past at times. That’s been super refreshing this year.” — Bauer to reporters on his greater freedom to communicate within the clubhouse this season

HE SAID IT II

“There’s times I want to wring him up by the neck and I’m sure he feels the same way about me. There’s times we’ve yelled at each other, gotten in each other’s face. And there’s times we’ve hugged it out and laughed about it. It’s been like a tug-o-war, but it’s just that competitive nature.” — Mike Clevinger to reporters on his friendship with Bauer

Photo: Trevor Bauer (Frank Jansky/Getty Images)

“I’m actually encouraged to talk to my teammates and share information this year. That had been discouraged in the past at times. That’s been super refreshing this year.” — Bauer to reporters on his greater freedom to communicate within the clubhouse this season

I saw this before and forgot to ask, "Is this a bit of a slam on Callaway"?

I guess we just disagree again on their value, Civ. I don't see Chiz and Naquin as second rate. They are both 1st round picks who have performed in their time in bigs. Injuries have sure dampered Chiz's output, no doubt. I understand that knock on him. But both look like they can be solid every day guys to me.

Jury is still out on Allen I know, but I have always thought he would be a future stereotypical lead off guy. But time will tell with him. His development had to take a back seat last two seasons due to injuries. I hope he starts seeing regular at bats and gets back on track now.

Guyer is a dime a dozen guy, and Davis best days behind him. No comparison with those other guys, IMO.

Oliver Pérez: The man of 1,000 deliveries
By T.J. Zuppe 1h ago 1
ST.​ LOUIS —​ Cody Allen​ remembers the first time​ watching Oliver Pérez​ warm up in​ Minnesota.​ The veteran​ lefty had​​ essentially just stepped off the plane and was almost immediately thrust into a relief spot against the Twins.

“It was fireballs right out of the gate,” Allen said, “just pumping strikes.”

Pérez’s quick arrival and fast entry demonstrated just how desperate the Indians were for relief arms. By the end of May, the Tribe’s pen had fallen near the bottom in every important category, and when Pérez became available due to an out in his minor-league contract with the Yankees on June 1, they pounced.

But unlike some of the other alternatives Terry Francona tried in the absence of the injured Andrew Miller, the 36-year-old Pérez started churning through opposing left-handed hitters with ease. Quickly, Allen picked up on one reason why the veteran relief arm has pitched over parts of 16 years in the majors.

“I don’t think he is (a comfortable at-bat),” Allen said. “His ability to change his delivery from pitch to pitch and still make pitches, that’s going to be an uncomfortable at-bat for anyone’s that facing him.”

Pérez — a man with a career path that has stretched from intriguing-yet-disappointing starter to wait-a-minute-he’s-useful reliever — swears he only has four deliveries.

To verify, he counted them at his locker over the weekend.

“A regular one,” he said. “The regular one, I just go this way.”

Pérez mimicked an overhand motion.

“The one is a step this way,” he said, twisting his body then demonstrating a three-quarters slot.

“And the one is this way,” Pérez added, sweeping his left hand sideways to imitate a submarine style delivery.

“And the quick pitch,” he concluded. “That’s kind of like four different spots.”

OK, so he stopped a few short of Chris Jericho’s infamous 1,004 holds, nor did he print out a lengthy list to read. But to accurately count all of Pérez’s deliveries, it’s not just about just looking at his floating release points.
Pérez has become the pitching version of the Coca-Cola freestyle machine.

Oh, I’m sure you’ve seen one at this point — a fountain drink machine capable of mashing different flavor combinations into one unique drink. The silver-haired slinger isn’t just serving hitters one version of a diet soda. His different variations of arm slots and hesitations rarely gives the opposition two of the same look in the same at-bat.

“(I like) keeping the hitter off balance,” Pérez told The Athletic. “If they’re balanced, they’re comfortable. That’s why I do different kind of deliveries, so maybe the hitter won’t be comfortable. That’s my goal. I don’t want the hitter to be comfortable.”

The three arm slots is enough to make things a little unpleasant. But Pérez pairs the unique looks with different leg kick varieties and different hesitations and timings.

For example, in his standard delivery, Pérez will kick his leg up to his chest before thrusting his body toward the plate at an average speed. He’s also capable of bringing his leg up more slowly, keeping the right leg high but with a much more deliberate and tantalizing speed. To add more deception, he’s then capable of the faster pitch, a delivery that features much less kick and a lot more quick.

But when he really wants to mess with a hitter’s timing and view, Pérez will turn his back toward home plate in a delivery reminiscent of Luis Tiant — perhaps a Johnny Cueto comparison might fit better (minus the shimmy) — before twisting his body back into place and firing toward home plate.



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When you add the speeds to the arm slots, you’re left with a seemingly endless number of delivery combinations, something Pérez says really comes in handy in the middle of a long battle against a pesky hitter.

“You’re starting to grab the rosin bag and throw it (out of frustration),” he joked. “You don’t know what pitch you want to throw. That’s good to have some kind of funny delivery. That can save the at-bat.”

Funny is one way to describe it.

But that’s really only part of the equation.

“It’s a lot of deception,” Francona said. “I will say, though, on top of that, if the ball’s not coming out (well), and you’re just relying on deception, you’ll get some guys, but he’s got good stuff. His breaking ball’s got bite to it. He’s got enough velocity. There’s a lot to like there.”

Of course, the downside to varying a delivery time and slot can occasionally accompany its benefits. Most pitchers will tell you it’s important to maintain one release point, all in the hope of keeping their pitches pleasantly located. Pérez has been victimized over his career by bouts with wildness, and in the past, teams have pointed to the inconsistent deliveries as a potential reason why. So, why continue to employ it?

“I’ve been using it a lot more because it’s worked,” he said.

“I’m just trying to mix it up. I try to figure it out in the bullpen sometimes. When I’m at the top, I (might not have) really good command. And when I throw sidearm, I (might have) more command. I have to figure it out quickly sometimes. But sometimes I realize it in the game. You start missing a lot, I change my spot and it works.”

Pérez believes he’s found one big key to success — conviction in the pitch type. Through that, he’s less concerned with where it ends up. And small sample or not, his returns since arriving with the Indians in Minnesota earlier this month have been impressive — 8 1/3 innings, four hits, one run, eight strikeouts and zero walks, limiting left-handed hitters to a 3-for-15 showing with a .467 OPS.

The four-seamer is still capable of averaging better than 92 mph. He owns the staff’s best expected weighted on-base average (Statcast’s quality and frequency of contact metric) during his brief stay on the big-league club.

Oh, and did we mention zero walks?

“If I’m 100 percent (confident), I’m going to do all the best to hit my spot,” Pérez said. “Sometimes you’re going to throw the ball everywhere, but when you’re 100 percent confident, you just feel comfortable.”

And Francona feels comfortable handing him the ball.

Given how horrific the month of May was for Tribe relievers, it didn’t take much to earn that trust. Still, his presence — along with the unexpected emergence of Neil Ramírez — has helped relay a calming impact within the group. Entering the week, they had posted the fifth-lowest earned run average among relievers (2.77) this month, a big departure from the 8.01 ERA they featured last month.

Adding a reliable lefty in the absence of Miller and the since injured Tyler Olson was critical.

“I think we caught a break,” Francona said.

You can say that again. But slower. From a different angle.

the question of just what is going on with Mejía’s bat in Triple A. After a dreadful start to the year, he’s boosted his slash line, but it’s still modest at .251/.301/.396 in the season. It’s also possible Mejía is simply bored in Triple A and could benefit from a challenge

Sure the season stats remain modest but over the past month Mejia's been topnotch. In June: 416/436/636. He is obviously not bored unless he finds having multiple hits nearly every game boring

Good article on reliever options. One interesting thing is Iglesias' contract isn't as good as it appears....

Rosenthal: The tricky reliever market for buyers and sellers
By Ken Rosenthal 7h ago 39

Some​ sellers will​ get stuck.​ Some will get too​ cute, demanding a team’s​ No. 12 prospect​ instead​ of settling​ for No.​​ 13, and will fail to trade some reliever they over-valued to begin with.

Two of the better relievers, right-handers Kelvin Herrera and Alex Colomé, already have been moved. Two of the best still available, San Diego Padres lefty Brad Hand and Cincinnati Reds righty Raisel Iglesias, might stay put if their teams’ respective asking prices are not met.

This market — long on supply, but not high-end supply — will be tricky for sellers to navigate. And the perception among many in the industry that the Kansas City Royals did not get enough for Herrera will give buyers pause if sellers start making ridiculous asks.

Which, most likely, already is happening.

Sellers beware: Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer, Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Domingo Santana and Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson are among the players whose trade values have declined after their teams declined to move them last off-season.

Not all of the fault belongs to the sellers; the buyers often are unreasonable, too. But clubs that truly want to move relievers will need to be realistic and aggressive. Otherwise, they might end up in a similar position to the free agents who aimed for big contracts at the start of last off-season and got burned.

Consider this partial list of relievers who are known or reported to be available:

Baltimore: Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Darren O’Day.
Chicago White Sox: Joakim Soria, Xavier Cedeno.
Cincinnati: Iglesias, David Hernández, Jared Hughes.
Detroit: Shane Greene.
Miami: Kyle Barraclough, Adam Conley, Brad Ziegler.
New York Mets: Jeurys Familia.
San Diego: Hand, Craig Stammen, Kirby Yates.
Texas: Jake Diekman, Keone Kela.
Toronto: John Axford, Tyler Clippard, Seunghwan Oh, Aaron Loup.

Of those 21 names, the potential free agents such as Britton and Familia are the most likely to be traded; they hold no future value to their current clubs. But certain sellers, fearing the volatility of relievers, might be eager to move even controllable pieces. And as additional teams fall out of contention, the list of available bullpen arms will only grow.

The Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels and Atlanta Braves are among the contenders that likely will try to add late-inning help. But after Hand, Iglesias and possibly Britton, who was out until June 11 as he recovered from right Achilles surgery, most of the trade candidates are similar in quality. Interested teams might simply wait out the market, figuring bargains will arise.

The risk for the buyers, then, is not as great as it is for the sellers — relievers of varying competence will linger on the market until July 31, and some also will be available during the August waiver period. The savvy sellers will move quickly, if possible. Teams that get too cute might get stuck.

Will anyone want Osuna?
Strictly on talent, Blue Jays right-hander Roberto Osuna would be one of the best relievers available in trade. But Osuna, who was arrested and charged on May 8 with the assault of a woman in Toronto, will be out until Aug. 4 after agreeing to a 75-game suspension for violating baseball’s domestic-violence policy.

Commissioner Rob Manfred, as is his prerogative under the joint policy, acted before Osuna had his day in court — the pitcher has pleaded not guilty and his attorney, Dominic Basile, told Rogers Sportsnet that he is “working in a manner that I’m hoping to avoid a conviction.”

As noted by Fangraphs’ Sheryl Ring, a conviction might prevent Osuna from obtaining a visa to play in the U.S. But even if Osuna is cleared (his next hearing is scheduled for July 9), would a team actually trade for him?

The New York Yankees established a precedent for such a move when they acquired left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Cincinnati Reds on Dec. 28, 2015, knowing Chapman might get suspended for a domestic-violence incident. But Osuna’s suspension — the third-longest since the inception of the policy in Aug. 2015 — was more than twice as long as Chapman’s 30-game penalty, an indication that his actions may have been much worse.

The collective-bargaining agreement allows Osuna to spend 15 days in the minors before his suspension is over, so interested teams will get a chance to see him when he resumes pitching. The biggest question, though, is whether the Blue Jays — like the Reds with Chapman — will simply want to move on, even if it means accepting a disappointing return.

The Jays’ owner, Rogers Communications, is a publicly traded company with shareholders across Canada. Its executives might harbor concern about their brand suffering if the team keeps Osuna, regardless of whether he avoids conviction.

Osuna, 23, was 9-for-10 in save opportunities with a 2.93 ERA before baseball placed him on administrative leave. He is earning $5.3 million this season, of which he will sacrifice $2.54 million during his suspension, and is under club control for three more years through arbitration.

Which relievers — if any — should the Reds trade?
While the Colorado Rockies almost certainly regret spending a combined $106 million on free-agent relievers Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee last off-season, the Reds are getting decent performance out of a bullpen with combined 2018 salaries of less than $13 million.

Five Reds relievers — Iglesias, Hernández and Hughes; Michael Lorenzen and Amir Garrett — have ERAs of 2.40 or below, and every one of them is under control through at least next season. The percentages of inherited runners scored for all but Lorenzen, who was out until May 23 with a right shoulder strain, also are below league average. Suffice it to say that the ’pen is emerging as a Cincinnati strength.

So, should the Reds keep the group together and seek only to trade potential free-agent right-hander Matt Harvey and position players such as second baseman Scooter Gennett, center fielder Billy Hamilton and left fielder Adam Duvall? It’s a thought, but the values for the veterans Hughes and Hernández might be at their peak, and Iglesias soon will grow expensive.

Iglesias’ contract gives him the right to opt into arbitration once he is eligible. He did not do that last off-season, figuring he could not beat the $4.5 million salary he was guaranteed in the fifth year of his seven-year, $27 million deal. But it probably will make sense for him to enter arbitration this off-season. Iglesias, 28, might get $7 million to $8 million through the process.

The risk for Iglesias is that arbitration salaries are not guaranteed; his current contract, on the other hand, guarantees him $5 million in both ’19 and ’20, and he still would have one year of arbitration when the deal expires. In any case, the mere possibility of him entering arbitration at a relatively high number likely will make him less attractive to low-revenue teams.

The one who got away? Jesús Aguilar, the Indians and capitalizing on an opportunity

Zack Meisel Jun 26, 2018 8
Francisco​ Lindor, Roberto​ Pérez and​ Dan Otero chatted in​ the corner of​ the Indians’ clubhouse​ one​ recent morning.​ They marveled​​ at the blossoming of a big guy with a big swing, one with which they’re plenty familiar. They wondered whether the old friend might have a convincing case for an All-Star Game nod.

Jesús Aguilar spent the first nine years of his professional career with the Indians. And that amounted to a grand total of 64 plate appearances with the big-league club, despite some gaudy numbers at various affiliates along the way.

He exhausted his minor-league options and the Brewers selected him off waivers Feb. 2, 2017, about a month after the Indians signed Edwin Encarnacion. That sealed Aguilar’s fate, though it was all but decided long before then.

“We always thought with Aggy that probably the only chance he was going to get here was if somebody got injured, and that didn’t necessarily happen,” Terry Francona said. “He got maybe a few starts here and there. That’s one of the reasons we never tell a guy he can’t play. We just tell them that, at the moment, there’s not a place for you to play here, because he needed an opportunity and he got it and he took advantage of it and he’s really doing well. I don’t think anybody would ever begrudge — we don’t feel like somebody goes somewhere else and you want them to fail.”

Well, Aguilar owns a .955 OPS this season for the Brewers, who essentially cashed in on a scratch-off ticket. That happens. There are so many moving parts, so many bodies in any organization, that players occasionally slip through the cracks or, for whatever reason, bloom elsewhere. There’s a reason the Rule 5 draft exists, after all.

Before Brandon Phillips became a three-time All-Star, the Indians dealt him to the Reds for a nickel and a piece of lint on the dollar. (Of course, the dissension between Phillips and Eric Wedge paved the way for that trade.) Think the Indians wish they still had Chris Archer or Kirby Yates?

Of course, they’ve benefitted from this sort of value chasm or roster crunch on plenty of occasions. They acquired Nick Goody for something called a Yoiber Marquina, simply because the Yankees needed to clear a spot for Aroldis Chapman. Goody excelled in the Indians’ bullpen last year. They claimed Otero, Tyler Olson, Oliver Pérez and Neil Ramírez off waivers over the last few seasons. And we know all about the trades that landed them Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger and Yan Gomes, to name a few.
It’s easy to say, “Imagine if Aguilar were wearing an Indians uniform while pummeling opposing pitchers.” But sometimes guys also need a change of scenery, a fresh voice to deliver instructions, a new environment and ballpark, new teammates.

“I don’t think the grass is always greener on the other side,” Otero told The Athletic. “A lot of players have to be careful of what they wish for sometimes. Sometimes where you’re at is the best spot for you to be in, but sometimes a change of scenery is what you need. You see it quite a bit in baseball, when guys struggle with a certain team and then go to a new organization, get off to a hot start and that confidence leads to great things. You look at J.D. Martinez in Houston. They let him go, he ends up in Detroit, worked his way through Toledo, got to Detroit and now he’s one of the best right-handed hitters in the game. The ability is there. With Aguilar, he’s taken off over there, for whatever reason, whether it’s comfort level, confidence. The power level has always been there. Sometimes it does absolutely help.”

Sometimes players aren’t positioned to break out until a team has no choice but to offer an opportunity.

“He knew once he was on the team, he couldn’t be optioned down,” Otero said. “He’s out of options. That’s a huge obstacle for some guys to mentally overcome, always looking over their shoulder. He’s out of options, we DFA him, he gets picked up. He knows going into camp, it’s his spot to win, essentially. Once he makes the team, it’s like, ‘I can’t get optioned down.’ I’ve heard guys say that. That makes a big difference. You’re not looking over your shoulder. Every day, every at-bat, you’re not thinking, ‘If I get out, I get sent down.’ So that helps.”

And, sometimes, it’s a numbers game. Carlos Santana was always blocking one of the two avenues Aguilar could travel to the majors. Nick Swisher, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss and Encarnacion occupied the other.

That’s not to say Aguilar didn’t deserve a longer look. He never received more than 38 plate appearances in a season with the Indians. And in 2015, once the Indians dumped Swisher, Moss and David Murphy in summer trades, they could have granted the guy a trial at first base or designated hitter. Instead, he appeared in seven games.

“We had a little bit of a split camp,” Francona said.

Following the trade of Swisher — the final nail in the coffin of the Indians’ veterans — Santana started each of the team’s 55 games. The other first base/DH slot went to the following players:

20: Chris Johnson
9: Jason Kipnis
9: Ryan Raburn
7: Michael Brantley
4: Jerry Sands
2: Yan Gomes
1: Roberto Pérez
1: No DH because of interleague play

As for Aguilar? Two starts, both in the final week of the season.

Imagine how many starts Johnson, a veteran playing out the final years of his inflated contract, would have secured had he not suffered a spider bite on his hand, causing him to miss nearly three weeks.

Maybe the Indians would have signed Mike Napoli the ensuing offseason anyway. But you don’t know what you don’t know, and it’s tough to award Aguilar a big-league job after he received only 20 plate appearances in 2015.

Aguilar spent three seasons at Class AAA Columbus.

2014: .304/.395/.511 slash line, 12.8% BB rate, 19.2% K rate, 149 wRC+
2015: .267/.332/.439 slash line, 8.2% BB rate, 20.2% K rate, 121 wRC+
2016: .247/.319/.472 slash line, 9.2% BB rate, 19.0% K rate, 125 wRC+

His production in limited trials with the Indians during those three seasons:

64 PAs: .172/.234/.190 slash line, 6.3% BB rate, 32.8% K rate, 19 OPS+

And the last two seasons with the Brewers …

2017: .265/.331/.505 slash line, 8.0% BB rate, 30.2% K rate, 112 wRC+
2018: .299/.358/.597 slash line, 8.7% BB rate, 24.9% K rate, 150 wRC+

His hard contact rate stands at 45.3 percent (the league average is 35.5 percent). And even with Eric Thames and Ryan Braun in the fold, he has earned daily playing time since the calendar flipped to May.

“I knew wherever he went, he was going to hit,” Lindor told The Athletic. “That’s what he did every year in the minor leagues. He hit. Low A, High A, Double A, Triple A. He did it every single year. He did it in Triple A a couple of times. It’s just a matter of getting the opportunity. Whether it was here or somewhere else, I knew he was going to get it done.”

Eventually, the options game can catch up with a team. The Indians had to cut Gio Urshela loose earlier this season. They may soon have to make a similar decision on Ryan Merritt.

In an alternate universe, the Indians would’ve given Aguilar a longer look, and in that trial, he would’ve revealed to the club that he could, in fact, hold down first base. He’d still be earning the major-league minimum, too. But who knows how things would have unfolded without Napoli or Encarnacion?

That’s why the Indians don’t look at Aguilar, or anyone in this sort of situation, as “the one who got away.” He’s just the one who never got much of a chance in Cleveland, and now looks the part in Milwaukee.

“He can go the other way. He can go up the middle,” Otero said. “Watching him and preparing to face him this year, you couldn’t just throw a fastball away. He could hit it out to right field. You have to be really fine and attack him carefully. There’s a reason why he’s in the 3-hole over there. It’s ’cause he’s freaking good right now. It’s not by accident.”

Good article on baseball players aging.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2391 ... ert-pujols

Shane Bieber is proving his mound maturity isn’t limited by his age
By T.J. Zuppe 2h ago 3
ST.​ LOUIS —​ Shane Bieber​ walked through the streets​ of St. Louis​ on Wednesday afternoon,​ head​ lowered, shades​ pulled down​​ over his eyes as he scrolled through his phone undetected.

As he neared Busch Stadium, the young hurler walked past a group of young fans. None batted an eye. No one asked for an autograph or cursed his impending performance. Each was unaware that in a matter of hours, the strike-tossing righty would break their hearts.

By the end of the night, however, Bieber was no longer an unknown commodity in St. Louis. In fact, following another stellar start, he was the most popular man in the Indians locker room, a hurler capable of commanding a news conference that spanned longer than Trevor Bauer’s postgame routine.

“You’re still going? Let the man breathe!” Bauer joked after returning to the neighboring locker. “I’ve taken a complete shower!”

You see, despite entering the day with just three big-league starts under his belt, Bieber continues to evolve beyond just being that one guy who shares a name with a certain pop star. His zone-filling deliveries have quickly translated to major-league success. He’s knocking out most of his firsts in rapid fashion. And the days of him slipping past fans unnoticed? Well, they might become less frequent than a Bieber free pass.

“You know what’s kind of cool?” Terry Francona rhetorically asked after Bieber’s six-inning, one-run performance. “Obviously he’s pitching well, but for a young kid, when runners are on and things start to happen, he seems to pitch more maturely than his age would indicate. He starts throwing his breaking ball, gets some chase, doesn’t panic, game doesn’t speed up, that’s a really nice trait for anybody, let alone a kid that’s got four major-league starts.”

That poise is one of the first things that stands out about Bieber — beyond his ability to pepper the zone with strikes.

Throughout each of his first four outings, the 23-year-old righty has been forced to pitch through some traffic. Wednesday night, he surrendered six hits, walked one and hit two batters. But when he fell into some critical spots, situations that could have greatly impacted the Tribe’s eventual four-run win over the Cardinals, Bieber seemed to do his best work.

In particular, he tiptoed through innings with multiple base-runners in the second, third and fifth innings, but a José Martínez opposite-field single led to the only blemish on Bieber’s line score.

Perhaps his most impressive escape came in the fifth with runners on the corners, striking out Marcell Ozuna on three consecutive sliders and getting Yadier Molina to ground out to short to end the threat.

“I was surprised by the way he settled himself after pressure,” Roberto Pérez said. “He was fun tonight, catching him. Especially for me, being behind the plate with him for the first time, it was fun. He pumped the fastball. He’s got command of all his pitches. He goes after hitters.”

And it’s that aggressiveness that has been most pleasantly surprising about the young pitching prospect.

It’s not uncommon to see all young pitchers question their stuff when they first arrive in the majors. It’s natural to wonder whether their pitches can work well enough to retire big-league hitters, and shying away from the zone in an effort to make the perfect pitch frequently gets youngsters in trouble.

Owning a fastball that hovers around 92-93 mph and two breaking balls that are still developing, Bieber has yet to consistently demonstrate that fear.

“I think I started to fall into that in the second half of my first outing in Minnesota,” Bieber said. “Things were going well, and I started trying to be a little too perfect.”

But since then?

“He’s taking his confidence to another level,” Pérez said. “To be able to do that in your first year, that’s how mature he is.”

And yet, he’s still not a finished product.

We’ve yet to see how teams will adjust to Bieber’s high strike approach. We haven’t seen how quickly he’ll be able to adjust to the league when they learn more about his arsenal. We haven’t seen if his breaking stuff will develop into something that can consistently keep big-league hitters off balance — even if Francona considers their performance to be the biggest surprise.

It’s even likely to bet on some regression, despite how terrific he’s been over his first four starts

That said, what we have seen is a 2.22 ERA in his first 24 1/3 innings. We’ve seen an equally impressive 2.69 FIP and a 27-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. We’ve seen a 36 percent swinging-strike rate on his slider. We’ve even witnessed his first big-league hit, a fourth-inning double to left-center Wednesday night.

(Don’t worry, Bauer safely delivered the ball and Bieber tucked it in his bag before leaving the park — even if he did slightly question whether the clubhouse trickster had truly handed him the correct ball.)

The sample size is small, but the trends are all pointed upward. What that means for the rest of this season is an unknown. What role he’ll play in October is yet to be determined. And that’s fine. Those questions will be answered in the next three months.

But in the meantime, Bieber is gaining valuable experience and demonstrating incredible internal serenity far beyond his years. That doesn’t just bode well for the near future. It speaks to the hope of a productive big-league career, one full of more promise and notoriety.

“Man, it’s fun to watch,” Francona said. “I think the best way to say it is the glass looks more full. We’re looking for that.”

The case for each Indians All-Star candidate

Zack Meisel 4h ago 4
The​ better the​ team, the​ more All-Stars on the​ roster. It’s far​ from an exact​ science​ — how​ on Earth​​ did the 2004 Indians place five players in the Midsummer Classic? — but there’s certainly a correlation.

The Indians figure to send at least a few players to the nation’s capital in a couple of weeks. It’s become the norm again, after some lean years in which the club was fortunate to be recognized with more than the one, required representative.

In 1995, ’98 and ’99, the Indians had six players selected each year. For the franchise record, we must rewind to 1952, when the team fielded seven All-Stars: Bobby Avila, Larry Doby, Mike Garcia, Jim Hegan, Bob Lemon, Dale Mitchell and Al Rosen. That record seems safe for another year, even if fans, players and the league office stuff the ballot boxes in Cleveland’s favor.

Wes Ferrel, Oral Hildebrand and Earl Averill were the team’s first All-Stars 85 years ago. The team was well-represented in the ‘40s and ‘50s. From 1969 to 1989, the club never sent more than two players to the annual exhibition. In the past quarter-century, there have been some rough years, too. Consider the examples of players who had to travel solo to the event.

2002: Omar Vizquel
2003: CC Sabathia
2005: Bob Wickman
2006: Grady Sizemore
2009: Victor Martinez, two weeks before the Indians traded him to Boston
2010: Fausto Carmona
2014: Michael Brantley
2015: Jason Kipnis

Last season, the Indians chartered five players to South Beach for the game, the first time in 13 years the club sent such a large group. Maybe it’s recency bias doing the writing, but the 2017 bunch seems ever-so-slightly more skilled than the ’04 crop.

Indians’ 2004 All-Stars: Ronnie Belliard, Matt Lawton, CC Sabathia, Victor Martinez, Jake Westbrook

Indians’ 2017 All-Stars: José Ramírez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller

The All-Star selection process is imperfect and somewhat arbitrary. Every summer, certain players are snubbed, and less-deserving candidates are granted opportunities. A few years ago, Omar Infante was in the running to start at second base for the American League, even though his putrid performance ultimately led to the Royals designating him for assignment before the All-Star break arrived. The mandate that every team must be represented complicates matters, too.

With the 2018 Indians, there are a few obvious candidates and a few long shots. Terry Francona oversees a top-heavy roster, so despite a somewhat vexing first half, the Indians have a chance to stand out in Washington D.C.

The AL fan voting, to this point, doesn’t feature any egregious decisions. Tribe players submitted their ballots in the clubhouse last homestand. The league office fills in the blanks at the end of the process.

Let’s examine the Indians’ cases.

José Ramírez
Ramírez has received nearly twice as many tallies as any other AL third baseman, so he’s a safe bet — and a deserving entity — to earn the starting gig. He leads his fellow AL hot corner-dwellers in (takes a deep breath) home runs, runs scored, RBI, stolen bases, walk rate, strikeout rate, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, base running, wRC+ and, by an astounding margin, WAR. Among all of the sport’s position players, he ranks second in homers and WAR and first in well-placed banana peels in Mario Kart.

This is as simple of a shoe-in as their should be in baseball. That little guy many once pegged as a utility player? He’s on the doorstep of becoming a perennial All-Star.

Verdict: The AL starting third baseman

Francisco Lindor
He sits in fourth place in the balloting, behind s̶o̶o̶n̶-̶t̶o̶-̶b̶e̶ ̶t̶e̶a̶m̶m̶a̶t̶e̶ Manny Machado, Carlos Correa and Didi Gregorius. The WAR rankings see things a bit differently, though.

1. Francisco Lindor, 4.2
2. Andrelton Simmons, 3.1
3. Jean Segura, 2.9

Machado (20 homers, 147 wRC+) and Lindor (19 homers, 144 wRC+) have registered mirror-image offensive production. There’s a ton of competition at the position, though. Lindor, Machado, Correa, Gregorius, Simmons, Segura, Xander Bogaerts and Eduardo Escobar all boast an OPS greater than .800.

Segura’s .335/.364/.479 slash line, for a surging Seattle squad, is difficult to ignore. Simmons has struck out only 13 times this season; Joey Gallo matched that in a five-game stretch earlier this month. Escobar and Eddie Rosario have carried the Twins’ ailing lineup all season.

Lindor and Simmons outpace their counterparts in the field, with 12 and nine defensive runs saved, respectively. Machado ranks last, with minus-18, for what it’s worth (players don’t typically scour FanGraphs for defensive metrics when completing their ballots).

Lindor’s production and notoriety should earn him a spot, but a couple of worthy candidates will be omitted from the roster.

Verdict: Selected as a reserve


Bauer has been consistently excellent in 2018. (Frank Jansky/Getty Images)
Trevor Bauer
Which pitcher is most deserving?

Pitcher A: 2.44 ERA, 2.24 FIP, 3.9 WAR, 0.4 HR/9, 7.9% BB rate, 31.8% K rate
Pitcher B: 2.54 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 2.5 WAR, 1.3 HR/9, 3.0% BB rate, 26.9% K rate
Pitcher C: 0.00 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 0.0 WAR, 0.0 HR/0, 0.0% BB rate, 0.0% K rate

By all statistical measures, Bauer (Pitcher A) warrants a spot on his first All-Star team. Only Luis Severino bests him in WAR and FIP (and Bauer will match him with his 17th start Friday night, so he can make up some ground). Only Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale and James Paxton top him in strikeout rate. He ranks fourth in ERA and first in home run rate. He has outperformed Corey Kluber (Pitcher B) and has reached that level in which observers are stunned when he doesn’t log seven innings or when he surrenders more than a couple of runs.

He might not receive many peer votes from the home clubhouse at Minute Maid Park, but he has turned enough heads to earn a nod.

Oh, and Pitcher C is Brandon Guyer, who ranks tied for first in MLB history in ERA but probably hasn’t recorded the sort of volume typically required for All-Star consideration.

Verdict: Selected to the roster

Corey Kluber
Even after his un-Kluber-like outing in St. Louis earlier this week, the Tribe ace still ranks among the league’s best in the categories that matter (and, well, even the ones that don’t. His 11 wins trail only Severino). He ranks in the top 10 in the AL in ERA, FIP, WAR and innings (113 1/3), and he leads the league in walk rate.

A pitcher’s reputation can help in this situation, too. Given his status as the reigning Cy Young Award winner, Kluber seems like a safe bet to secure his third consecutive All-Star trip.

Verdict: Selected to the roster

Michael Brantley
Brantley’s selection last season was a bit of a surprise. Since he was chosen by his peers, it seemed to symbolize a hat tip to his comeback from two shoulder surgeries. His numbers this season have improved, but he also has more competition. Brantley ranks 15th among AL outfielders with 1.4 WAR, largely a result of his defense.

He ranks eighth in wRC+, third in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage and ninth in slugging. (We’re removing J.D. Martinez from consideration, since he leads the voting for designated hitters.) Brantley also boasts the best strikeout rate, and it isn’t close.

Best strikeout rates among AL outfielders:
1. Michael Brantley: 8.6 percent
2. Mookie Betts: 12.5 percent
3. Dee Gordon: 14.3 percent

Barring injury, Betts, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge will likely claim the three starting spots. They hold a massive lead in the balloting. Beyond that, Rosario deserves an opportunity. Shin-Soo Choo might receive a bid, given the lack of candidates on the Rangers’ roster. Andrew Benintendi, Nicholas Castellanos, Giancarlo Stanton and Mitch Haniger are all in the conversation as well.

Verdict: Selected as a reserve, but he could be primed for a snubbing


Gomes leads all catchers in hair-braiding. (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Yan Gomes
Do you have a pulse? Do you have knee savers? Can you flash a few fingers while crouching in some dirt? You might have what it takes to serve as an AL All-Star catcher!

Wilson Ramos, the leading vote-getter, deserves the starting role. Beyond that, it’s a wasteland of part-timers and poor performers. (Oh, and if the Rays trade Ramos to the National League in the next two weeks, this position is going up in flames.)

Gomes is the only other catcher having an above-average season offensively, unless we include Houston’s Max Stassi, who has 70 fewer plate appearances. Gary Sanchez is the household name, but his .190/.291/.433 slash line can make one cringe, and he’s likely sidelined until after the break because of a groin injury. There really aren’t any other logical candidates, even if trying to pick a player from a team desperate for a representative. The Royals dealt their only worthy option, Kelvin Herrera; Salvador Perez’s .215/.257/.395 slash line is rather unsightly.

Stassi: 152 plate appearances, seven home runs, 8.6% BB rate, 30.3% K rate, 125 wRC+, 1.2 WAR
Gomes: 222 plate appearances, nine home rune, 7.2% BB rate, 31.1% K rate, 105 wRC+, 1.2 WAR

Verdict: [shrug emoji]

Mike Clevinger
His numbers glisten, especially when considering he’s the Indians’ No. 4 starter. He ranks ninth in the AL with 2.5 WAR, with healthy walk and strikeout rates, an encouraging FIP and an impressive home run rate. But there are so many stout starting pitchers in the AL, so the new guy on the workhorse block might get squeezed out of the picture.

Verdict: Maybe next year

I actually didn't realize Gomes was at or near the top of the list of AL catchers.

And with his defense - score!

I'd be surprised, as I was last year, if Brantley is chosen. There are several ways to make an All Star team and last year Michael earned vote of his peers. I assume part of the season, besides his good stats, was recognition of the hard work he did to get back after serious injuries. Stats are fine again but there are a lot of outfielders who have good stats and a lot of bad teams who have to get someone selected.


there have been some recent years when as many relievers as starters are chosen. This year Bauer and Kluber both clearly have had All Star quality seasons. As have Verlander and Severino and Sale and Cole and Snell. And maybe Paxton and Morton. I would be pretty upset if Trevor and Corey both dont' get the call.

Lindor is great. So are lots of shortstops who were noted by Meisel. He could lose out despite clearly being qualified.

TFIR wrote:I actually didn't realize Gomes was at or near the top of the list of AL catchers.

And with his defense - score!

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Minor League Baseball @MiLB
Top #Indians prospect Francisco Mejia stays hot with a four-hit night for @CLBClippers.

Jordan Bastian @MLBastian
Francisco Mejia now has 7 multi-hit games in a row.

Jordan Bastian @MLBastian
Mejia has hit .548 (17-for-31) in his last 7 games and is now batting at a .457 (43-for-94) clip in June.

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Mejia started off really bad this year. But his recent hot streak has him up to .287