Cleveland Sports Forum

In answer to the what player's improvement is key, the answer referenced both Bourne and Kipnis. I say Kipnis alone. He is young enough that we should not expect him to be a terminal decline. Unless he peaked at age 26 or 27 like Asdrubal Cabrera there's good reason to expect and certainly to hope that he returns to his above average play of 2013 and 2012. The most phenomenal stat of Kipnis' 2014 was his RBI total of ZERO for the month of September when he was back to playing everyday. Pressing too hard, I assume?


That is Bourn's situation. At his age he's not going to back to being a basestealing stud. His average and OBA have declined steadily over the last few years. His defense numbers could I guess pick up a little if he's not limited by his hamstrings. But his status which topped out as rather good center field and leading basestealer; and now he's a below average CF and below average leadoff hitter. There is no good reason to expect him to suddenly get younger

Looks like Jacob Shafer is a graduate of Terry Pluto's "How To Fill Those Column-Inches" academy.

?

I don't know why you say that. I am very excited about our starting staff.

I'm worried about our bullpen though.

I don't know if you guys remember it, but a few years ago Mark Shapiro was asked why he thought relievers had been so inconsistent. They would have a great year, then a bad one. And it was happening often. Shapiro said when they were having an effective year the team would tend to over use them. The next year they would suffer from a bit of a dead arm.

Makes me worry about what we may see from our few good guys this year.

If Allen is fine the bullpen is fine......

Schoenfield from EsPN has Tribe ranked 4th best team in majors, 1st in AL.

Ranking the teams: 6 through 1
February, 13, 2015
FEB 13
12:25
PM ET
By David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
7K398COMMENTS484EMAILPRINT


It's Day 5, and we're down to the top six teams. I've written nearly 15,000 words on these pre-spring training power rankings, about one-tenth the length of a decent novel. Thanks for reading.

• Team rankings: Nos. 30-25
• Team rankings: Nos. 24-19
• Team rankings: Nos. 18-13
• Team rankings: Nos. 12-7

Mariners6. Seattle Mariners

Big offseason moves: Signed DH/OF Nelson Cruz; acquired OF Seth Smith from the Padres for RHP Brandon Maurer; acquired OF Justin Ruggiano from the Cubs for RHP Matt Brazis; traded OF Michael Saunders to the Blue Jays for LHP J.A. Happ; signed DH/2B Rickie Weeks; lost 1B Justin Smoak and RHP Chris Young to free agency.

Most intriguing player: The spotlight is on Cruz, coming off a big 40-homer season with the Orioles. The Mariners were tied for 28th in the majors in home runs by right-handed batters and next-to-last in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitchers, so they were desperate for right-handed power. Cruz spent a lot of time at Safeco Field while with the Rangers and his career OPS there is .749 (.234/.309/.440). Uh-oh.

Due for a better year: I have an ongoing debate with some fellow Mariners fans about Brad Miller. I think he's going to be better. They believe he can't hit or field. In reality, Miller and Chris Taylor make for a perfect platoon (although Taylor has hit righties better throughout his minor league career). However it shakes out, I expect the Mariners to get better results from shortstop, although I wonder: Has a team ever won a pennant platooning shortstops?

Due for a worse year: Cruz. Or Fernando Rodney. The arrow is fun, but everything leading up to the arrow makes Mariners fans very nervous.

I'm just the messenger: OK, center field. Austin Jackson came over from the Tigers at the trade deadline and was immediately infected with a severe case of Safecoitis and suddenly lost the ability to hit. Jackson hit .256/.308/.347 with the Tigers and slumped to .229/.267/.260 with the Mariners, with only six extra-base hits in 223 at-bats. Even though he's only 28, Jackson's problem may not be fixable; in a league with more hard-throwers than ever, he struggles against fastballs. His isolated power against fastballs has declined to a nonexistent .073 from .103 in 2013 and .220 in 2012. And it's not as if his defense makes up for the lack of offense. His defensive runs saved totals have dropped from plus-29 in 2011 to plus-5 in 2012 to plus-3 in 2013 to zero last season. The backup plan? The familiar names of Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez have been invited to spring training.

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The final word: The Mariners fare very favorably in the projection systems. FanGraphs has them as the best team in the American League and third in baseball behind the Nationals and Dodgers. Baseball Prospectus has them as the No. 3 team in the AL. These aren't strong predictions -- 89 and 87 wins, respectively -- but there is talent here and the Mariners are coming off a strong 87-win season. They've addressed the right-handed issue with Cruz, Ruggiano and Weeks, giving manager Lloyd McClendon more flexibility with his lineup and platoons. The team is heavily dependent on Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, so an injury to any of the three would be devastating. The bullpen, wonderfully handled a season ago by McClendon, should be a strength once again. It has been 14 years since the Mariners made the postseason. It's time.

Prediction: 88-74


Cardinals5. St. Louis Cardinals

Big offseason moves: Acquired RF Jason Heyward and RHP Jordan Walden from the Braves for RHP Shelby Miller and RHP Tyrell Jenkins; signed 1B Mark Reynolds and RHP Matt Belisle; lost RHPs Pat Neshek and Justin Masterson to free agency.

Most intriguing player: Heyward was one of my favorite transactions of the winter, a Gold Glove right fielder -- and Gold Glove in the Roberto Clemente sense, not Jay Buhner. Heyward will bring improved production to right field, where the Cardinals had the worst wOBA in the majors. Maybe Heyward's not the 30-homer guy once projected of him, but he has hit 27 before and should hit more than the 11 he totaled in 2014.

Due for a better year: Closer Trevor Rosenthal fought his control all season, walking 5.4 batters per nine innings compared to 2.4 in 2013. He went 45-for-51 in save chances but also had a 2-6 record. The fastball is still top shelf and he should provide more consistent ninth-inning work.

Due for a worse year: Adam Wainwright went 20-9 with a career-best 2.38 ERA but had minor elbow surgery to trim some cartilage. He's expected to be fine, but you never know.

I'm just the messenger: The Cardinals have done a nice job of blending in some youth with the likes of Heyward, Matt Adams and Kolten Wong, but they're still relying on 30-somethings Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta, not to mention Wainwright. Molina and Holliday slipped a bit last year, and Peralta will be hard-pressed to repeat his season. There's enough age here that the potential for a collapse is possible. We're so used to the Cardinals winning that we just expect them to keep winning.

The final word: Of course, I'm not predicting that to happen. The addition of Heyward gives them a solid lineup from one through eight with the potential for a better bench than they've had the past two years. Yes, you have to worry a little bit about the health of Wainwright and a lot about the health of Michael Wacha, but the rotation is deep enough to counter the loss of either guy. The Cardinals should return to the postseason for a fifth straight season.

Prediction: 88-74



Indians4. Cleveland Indians

Big offseason moves: Acquired 1B/OF Brandon Moss from the A's for 2B Joe Wendle; signed RHP Gavin Floyd.

Most intriguing player: Corey Kluber beat out Felix Hernandez for the American League Cy Young Award, becoming one of the least likely winners in the award's history. Simple question: Can he do it again?

Due for a better year: Jason Kipnis was an All-Star in 2013 and finished 11th in the MVP voting but suffered an oblique injury in April and played through it all season. He also hurt his finger working out in December and had surgery but is expected to be ready for spring training. After creating about 101 runs in 2013 he slipped to 53 in 2014. Expect a nice bounce back.

Due for a worse year: Michael Brantley hit .317/.385/.506 and finished third in the MVP voting. While I'm believing in most of the power uptick, he was a .277 hitter entering the season. He should be good again, but I would expect something closer to a 5-WAR season than a 7-WAR one.

I'm just the messenger: The Indians did not have a good defensive outfield in 2014, ranking 29th in the majors in defensive runs saved at minus-37. They ranked last in ultimate zone rating at minus-39.9 runs, so different metrics agree that they were lousy in the outfield. Have they fixed the problem? Not necessarily. The biggest culprit was David Murphy at minus-17 DRS; Michael Bourn was rated at minus-6 and Brantley at minus-3. Of the various subs, all rated below average except Tyler Holt. Bourn and Brantley are slated to start again in center and left, but right field is open. Considering Murphy didn't hit either, it seems unlikely he wins the job on a regular basis. Brandon Moss can play out there and he's rated at plus-3 runs over the past three seasons, but he's also coming off hip surgery. Cleveland's best bet is for better performances from Bourn and Brantley but don't be surprised if Holt ends up getting a lot of time in the outfield.

The final word: Picking the Indians to win the Central isn't really a radical pick -- they won 85 games last season and 92 in 2013. The offense should be above average, especially if Kipnis and Moss are healthy. And while the defense is questionable (last in the majors in overall DRS), the young rotation has come together. Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar and T.J. House should be an excellent five-man group, with depth from Floyd and Zach McAllister. Second-half stats aren't always predictive, but the Indians had the best rotation ERA in the AL after the All-Star break. Jose Ramirez or rookie Francisco Lindor will be an upgrade defensively at shortstop. Brantley, Carlos Santana, Kipnis and Yan Gomes are right in their peak years. Go support your team, Cleveland.

Prediction: 90-72



Pirates3. Pittsburgh Pirates

Big offseason moves: Lost C Russell Martin and RHP Edinson Volquez to free agency; re-signed LHP Francisco Liriano; signed RHP A.J. Burnett; traded 1B Ike Davis to the A's; acquired C Francisco Cervelli from the Yankees for LHP Justin Wilson; acquired LHP Antonio Bastardo from the Phillies; signed Korean SS Jung Ho Kang; traded OF Travis Snider to the Orioles; acquired INF Sean Rodriguez from the Rays.

Most intriguing player: Gerrit Cole now has 41 major league starts with a 3.45 ERA. It's time for the former No. 1 overall pick to make the leap from mid-rotation starter to a No. 2 guy -- and maybe an ace who throws 200-plus innings with a sub-3.00 ERA. The stuff is there, the fastball is there and I think he'll have a breakout season.

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Due for a better year: After tying for the NL lead in home runs in 2013, not much went right for Pedro Alvarez in 2014. He had throwing problems at third base and dropped off to 18 home runs before his season ended in late August because of a stress reaction in his foot. He moves to first base and should challenge 30-plus home runs.

Due for a worse year: Relievers Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and Jared Hughes all posted ERAs under 2.00. Melancon's peripherals support his ERA, but Watson (2.69 FIP) and Hughes (3.99 FIP) -- who went a combined 17-7 -- may have difficulty preventing runs at the same level again. Expect at least a little regression from this trio. The Pirates will have to replace 122 innings in the bullpen from Wilson and Jeanmar Gomez as well. Maybe late-season callup John Holdzkom and his upper-90s fastball plays a prominent role.

I'm just the messenger: The Pirates ranked last in FanGraphs WAR for starting pitchers in 2014. Was the rotation really that bad? Well, the Pirates ranked 10th in strikeout percentage and 14th in walk percentage. But there is some method to all of this. The Pirates' starters did lead the majors in ground ball percentage; of course, the Pirates also shift a lot and do a good job pitching to the shift. Not surprisingly, they allowed a .222 average on grounders, third best in the NL. Sure, an ace would be nice, but the Pirates also have done just fine the past two seasons without one.

The final word: The Pirates have played the Cardinals tough the past two seasons -- three wins behind in 2013, two last year. Pittsburgh scored 682 runs last season (48 more than 2013), and it wouldn't surprise me if they score even more in 2015. They've got a deep lineup. The loss of Martin is a big blow, not only for his .400 OBP in 2014 but his defense, though Cervelli is regarded as a strong defensive catcher. The outfield of MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco may be the best all-around group in the game, Neil Walker is an underrated second baseman and Kang could challenge Jordy Mercer for the starting job. They have talent, depth, defense, a smart front office and a smart field staff. They finally leap over St. Louis.

Prediction: 91-71



Dodgers2. Los Angeles Dodgers

Big offseason moves: Hired Andrew Friedman as president of baseball operations and Farhan Zaidi as general manager; traded OF Matt Kemp and C Tim Federowicz to the Padres for C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Joe Wieland and RHP Zach Eflin; lost SS Hanley Ramirez to free agency; signed RHP Brandon McCarthy and LHP Brett Anderson; traded 2B Dee Gordon, RHP Dan Haren and SS Miguel Rojas to the Marlins for LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Chris Hatcher, 2B Enrique Hernandez and C Austin Barnes; traded Heaney to the Angels for 2B Howie Kendrick; acquired SS Jimmy Rollins from the Phillies; acquired RHP Joel Peralta and LHP Adam Liberatore from the Rays for RHPs Juan Dominguez and Greg Harris.

Most intriguing player: Yasiel Puig, Year 3. Is this the year he remains consistent, cleans up the mistakes, keeps the power going and becomes an MVP candidate? Or does he settle in as a very good player? Either way, we'll all be watching.

Due for a better year: Clayton Kershaw ... in the postseason. Hard to top 21-3, 1.77 with Cy Young and MVP trophies. In just 27 starts.

Due for a worse year: Juan Uribe hit .300 for the first time since he was a rookie with the Rockies in 2001 and posted a career-high .337 OBP.

I'm just the messenger: The Dodgers spent a lot of money to bring in McCarthy and Anderson as their fourth and fifth starters. They're convinced McCarthy is capable of another 30-start, 200-inning season even though that was the first time he has reached either mark in his career (previous highs: 25 starts, 170 innings). Anderson is still a talented lefty when he gets out on the mound, but he has made only 32 starts the past four seasons. There isn't a lot of depth here. Joe Wieland and Juan Nicasio could be next in line. Erik Bedard has been invited to spring training. If Kershaw or Zack Greinke suffer a long-term injury, the rotation could have issues.

The final word: It's not often you see a 94-win team get such a big makeover, but the new regime is rebuilding on the fly. The Dodgers had to clear space in the outfield for rookie center fielder Joc Pederson and they had to get better defensively up the middle. They'll have a new middle infield -- a much better defensive one with Rollins and Kendrick. In fact, all of the Dodgers' moves were done in part to improve the defense, including catcher, where Grandal is rated as a good framer. A better pitcher than analyst, Greinke didn't give rave reviews to the moves. This is a good team, one that should coast to a division title.

Prediction: 93-69


Nationals1. Washington Nationals

Big offseason moves: Signed RHP Max Scherzer for a lot of money; lost 1B Adam LaRoche, RHP Rafael Soriano and 2B Asdrubal Cabrera to free agency; traded OF Steven Souza to the Rays in a three-way deal that netted RHP Joe Ross and SS Trea Turner; acquired INF Yunel Escobar from the A's for RHP Tyler Clippard; signed RHP Casey Janssen.

Most intriguing player: Bryce Harper. He's a grizzled veteran of 22 now. We saw in the postseason what he can do when he's healthy and everything is clicking. I think it clicks this year.

Due for a better year: Ryan Zimmerman played only 61 games and hit five home runs. He moves over to first base and hopefully stays on the field for 140 games.

Due for a worse year: Tanner Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA and actually edged Jordan Zimmermann for the team lead in WAR among pitchers. His reward? A likely trip to the bullpen with the signing of Scherzer. He was a good bet to regress a bit anyway (3.49 FIP).

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I'm just the messenger: The one area of concern is the bullpen. I didn't like the Clippard trade on the heels of letting Soriano walk as a free agent, even if they did need a second baseman. Clippard has been a hugely vital setup guy the past five years and now you worry about the depth behind closer Drew Storen. And then in the postseason, you worry about Storen.

The final word: No surprise here. The Nationals have the potential for a historically dominant rotation. The lineup has no holes and one clear MVP candidate in Anthony Rendon and possibly another in Harper if he matures. Scherzer gets to go to the league where pitchers hit and with a better defense behind him than he had in Detroit; he could see his ERA drop half a run or more. A 100-win season is possible.

Prediction: 98-64

Can Cleveland Indians win World Series only with player-managers? Hey, Hoynsie!

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Do you have a question that you'd like to have answered in Hey, Hoynsie? Submit it here.

Hey, Hoynsie: When the Indians won the World Series in 1920 and 1948, they had a player-manager -- Tris Speaker in 1920 and Lou Boudreau in 1948. This jokingly begs the question; can Terry Francona still play? The more serious question is would the Players Association allow a player-manager in this day and age? -- David Bodemer, Tallmadge.

Hey, David: Francona would be the first to tell you his playing days are long since past, but it's still possible to have a player-manager in the big leagues. Pete Rose did it for the Reds from 1984-86. Frank Robinson was the Tribe's player-manager for 1975-76.

While the union would have no reason to complain, owners and general managers might. The job of a big-league manager has morphed into a full-time gig. Unless there were extenuating circumstances -- Rose was chasing Ty Cobb's hit total as a player-manager -- I'd be surprised if it happened again.

Hey, Hoynsie: How about ESPN putting the Indians at No.4 in the preseason rankings? It's nice to see them crediting continuity by a small-market club as opposed to trumpeting the big off-season acquisitions of other teams. If there was ever a team symbolically representative of the blue-collar, hardworking aspect of Cleveland it's the Indians. Let's show this team the support it deserves Ohio fans. -- Nick Kellogg, Austin, Texas.

Hey, Nick: It might be the Cleveland in me, but anytime people start predicting good things for the Tribe this early in the year I keep getting flashbacks to Joe Carter and Cory Snyder on the cover of SI's baseball edition in 1987. SI predicted that the Indians were going to be the best team in the American League, instead they lost 101 games.

But I do like the Tribe's starting rotation.

Hey, Hoynsie: With the Indians' payroll below what it has been in the past few years, do you think that they may make a big move during the season when teams start selling? -- Drew Badd, Canton.

Hey, Drew: I think the Indians payroll is going to be close to the $85 million it was last year. As far as making an in-season move, it depends on a lot of things, the most important being where the Indians are in the standings.

If they're in contention at the end of July or August, maybe they make a move to help the club. If they're out of it, they might try to dump some salary and look at some younger players.

Hey, Hoynsie: Why haven't the Indians made a big trade this winter? They need to sell more season tickets. I know the payroll isn't over $100 million. A player like Evan Longoria could help them offensively and defensively. He's making only $7 million a year and would excite the fan base. Their window for winning a championship is now. -- Dan Alexander, LaGrange.

Hey, Dan: I think you need to research Longoria's contract a little more. He'll make $11 million this year and $11.5 million in 2016. Then an extension he signed in 2012 kicks in which will pay him $100 million from 2017-22.

I'm not saying the Indians won't make a big move sometime this year, but the reason they've been quiet is because they like their club the way it is.

Hey, Hoynsie: I've read articles that the Indians' ballpark favors left-handed hitters when it comes to power and that the team's position players are built around that fact.

Don't these recent two-year stats from Rotogrinders (rotogrinders.com/pages/ballpark-factors-49556) suggest that right-handed batters are slightly more likely to hit extra base hits and home runs, while lefties hit for more average and OPS due to more singles? -- James Westfield, Cleveland.

Hey, James: In this year's copy of the Bill James Handbook here's what it says took place during home games last season at Progressive Field: Tribe lefties hit 53 homers, Tribe righties hit 19.

Among opposing players, left-handed hitters hit 34 homers and righties hit 38. Overall, lefties hit 87 homers and righties 57 last year at Progressive Field.

From 2012-14, lefties out-homered righties 279-172. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Hey, Hoynsie: Will the Tribe keep Jason Giambi, even if it's only for team inspiration? -- Randall Smith, Cleveland.

Hey, Randall: The Indians have made it clear that they'd like Giambi back in some kind of advisor role. I do not think he'll play again and could take a year off to be with his family before getting back into baseball.

Hey, Hoynsie: Everyone is hoping the defense will improve this year. I doubt very much that it will. There are very few players on the roster that weren't asked to play multiple positions last year. Manager Terry Francona is constantly moving guys around. Don't you think a player has a far greater chance to excel in his position if he is only playing that one position? I'm convinced that Francona is the cause of the poor defense. -- Bruce Allen, Land O Lakes, Fla.

Hey, Bruce: Strange, but I don't remember Francona being charged with any of the Tribe's league-leading 116 errors last year.

As for players playing more than one position, I think there will be less of that this year. Carlos Santana has settled in at first and won't be asked to play third or catch. Lonnie Chisenhall appears to be the clubhouse leader at third and shouldn't be appearing at first base unless there's an emergency. I think having Jose Ramirez at shortstop from opening day is going to help the infield as well.



I know the defensive metrics did not put the outfield defense in a good light, but I must be watching another game. I thought Michael Brantley played a great left field and that Michael Bourn, when healthy, was fine in center. Francona did use right field as a melting pot and that could be the case this year as well. I think you will see different faces circulating among first base, DH and right field, but I believe Santana will is going to see most of the action at first.

Seems to me what ever area that was the strength the year before ends up being the weakness the following year. Hope not but it seems to work like that for the Indians.

I think one thing that may really help us this year is Zach McAllister is out of options. He isn't going to win a starting rotation spot so I think he may land in the bullpen, where I think he is best suited.

If you look at his split stats he gets less effective as he goes.

Pitches 16 thru 30 compared to pitches 1 thru 15 his batting average against raises 34 points. Opposing OBP raises 100 points. Opposing slugging percentage raises almost 100 points, and opposing OPS raises almost 200 points.

Then when you look at pitches 31 thru 45 as opposed to 1 thru 15 it gets even worse. BAA is 100 points worse. OOBP is 120 points worse. Opposing slugging % is 169 points worse. OPS is almost 300 points worse.

Put him in the bullpen where he belongs this year and I think he can really help us out for an inning throughout the year.

I agree Hillbilly. Francona complained when as a starter he relied almost solely on his fast ball. That can work in the pen. He did pretty well out there when he came back to Cleveland at the end of the season.

Of course we have way more relievers available and who'd I be happy to have than we have room on the roster for. Even Francona needs a couple guys on his bench.

Closer: Allen
Righties: Shaw, Atchison, McAllister
Lefties: Rpczynski, Crockett, Hagadone

Also available: CC Lee, Swarzak, Downs, Tomlin, Adams, Chen??, Maronde??
Someone named Michael Roth is on invitee list; should I have heard of him

Roth is a lefty from Angels organization. He got smacked around for them last year, but he was initially rushed to the majors too quickly. He pitched for South Carolina and did a nice job for them in a World Series run, but still was rushed too quickly through minors. I've always said that sometimes lefties take longer to develop so I never mind taking a flyer on a guy like this. ... Kind of guy you shouldn't expect a lot from, but don't be shocked if he does open some eyes.

Maronde is another former Angel lefty rushed to the majors. In fact Maronde is still only 22! and has pitched in the majors during parts of three seasons, with ERA progressively rising from 1.50 to 6.75 to 12.79. I guess the sky's the limit.

On the subject of McCallister....I posted this article back in January. I guess it bears repeating. I'm all for McCallister joining the bullpen crew:

A SIGN OF RELIEF FOR ZACH MCALLISTER
Jake Dungan
Columnist

This story was originally published onIndiansBaseballInsider.com

The transformation last season of Wade Davis from inconsistent starter to dominant reliever for the Royals has many wondering if the same could happen for Zach McAllister of the Indians.

The defending American League champions in Kansas City were an exciting team to watch last season in many respects. There was, of course, the small market underdog appeal, their reckless abandon on defense and on the base paths, their league-low strikeout totals and dramatic wins in the regular season and the playoffs.

However, the one aspect of their team that stood out more than the others and many singularly attribute to the majority of their success was the dominance of their bullpen, particularly the “Big Three” of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Are we talking about a reincarnate of the Nasty Boys? Probably not quite at that level, but certainly a lot of teams are envious of the Royals and what they have at the back of their bullpen.

The transformation of Wade Davis in particular has been arguably the most exciting development of the blockbuster Wil Myers trade from a couple offseasons ago. He was originally slated to pitch out of the Royals’ rotation alongside James Shields, who is currently a free agent after two productive seasons in Kansas City.

Unfortunately, as a starter Davis didn’t live up to expectations as he posted a 5.67 ERA in the Royals rotation in 2013. However, his brief stint in the bullpen showed promise as he posted a sub-1 ERA. Last season, there was never any thought of using him as a starter as he put up impressive numbers as Greg Holland’s setup man.

This is not a new development in Major League Baseball where ineffective starters are reborn in the bullpen. In fact, it’s not even new for the Royals as former first round pick Luke Hochevar was basically the Wade Davis of 2013 before having to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Other notable starter-turned-reliever success stories include Dellin Betances in the Bronx and Carlos Carrasco here in Cleveland. Of course he ended up being a starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter (a rare breed, to be sure).

While it doesn’t appear that Carrasco will be returning to the bullpen anytime soon, the Indians may still be conducting this experiment again in 2015 with another hurler in the form of right-hander Zach McAllister.

By now, most Tribe fans are familiar with McAllister’s work as a starter and his fabulous fount of fastballs. In all seriousness, though, while he has had success as a starter, he has not been overwhelmingly impressive overall. However, he opened the eyes of folks both inside and outside the organization late last season with his brief but dominant display as a reliever late last season and has potentially altered the outlook of the Tribe bullpen moving forward.

Regardless of whether the Indians view McAllister’s success in the bullpen last year as sustainable or not, his lack of remaining minor league options leave them without much choice but to put him there in 2015 unless he’s traded or somehow earns a spot in the rotation.

So since it appears more than likely that McAllister will be in the bullpen come opening day in Houston, the question is will he pick up where he left off last year as a reliever? By an ERA standpoint, the difference was clear last season as the right-hander posted 5.67 and 2.77 marks as a starter and reliever, respectively. His FIP splits aren’t as extreme, but suggest he was even more effective as a reliever with a 3.80 and 1.44 difference.

Okay, so the stats are there and the difference in effectiveness is noted. Now the question is why and is it sustainable? From watching him pitch last year and then crunching the numbers on Fangraphs, there was a clear change in pitching approach on the part of McAllister once he switched roles. In short, he stopped holding back.

Let's take a look at his average fastball velocity. As a starter last season (15 games), the right-hander averaged 92.3 mph on his heater while topping out only in the mid-90s. As a reliever (seven games), his fastball averaged 95.6 mph and topped out as high as 98 mph. Overall in 2014, McAllister saw an average 2.32 mph increase on all of his pitches in his last eight games of the season (seven as a reliever) compared to his first 14.

This is consistent with the philosophy that pitching coach Mickey Callaway has imparted to his pitchers, most notably Carlos Carrasco, who struggled as a starter after returning from Tommy John surgery in 2013 and again at the start of last season, but reinvented his game out of the bullpen and then managed to apply that effectiveness back to being a starter in the second half last year.

Basically, the thinking is to not hold back on the mound. It was clear with Carrasco, McAllister and Wade Davis in Kansas City, who saw similar velocity spikes as a reliever compared to McAllister. Obviously as a reliever, a pitcher doesn’t have to be so concerned about preserving their strength over multiple innings.

So looking ahead to the upcoming season and beyond, does McAllister’s new ‘let it rip’ approach become the missing link in the back of the Tribe bullpen?

Not that the bullpen was bad last year, but fatigue became a clear factor towards the end of the campaign last year. Setup man Bryan Shaw led the major leagues in appearances with 80 in 2014 while closer Cody Allen tied for fourth with 76 with the other primary Indians relievers not far behind.

Of course, the concentration of appearances by a team’s back-end relievers also falls upon the effectiveness of the starting rotation, which struggled mightily prior to the All-Star Break last year as well as the offense to score runs and widen the margin of victory and the manager to trust other pitchers in key situations, which Terry Francona was criticized for at times in 2014.

Regardless, having McAllister possibly figure into the mix should go a long way to lengthening the bullpen and shifting some of the workload away from Allen, Shaw, Rzepczynski and company. Plus as a conditioned starter, he can pitch multiple innings if needed.

It’s another contributing element to what can potentially be one of the top overall pitching staffs in baseball in 2015. And with Tigers ace Max Scherzer agreeing to a 7-year deal with Washington, it adds more intrigue to what the Indians and the other teams in the AL Central can accomplish in the coming season.

Preseason rating of Top 100 major leaguers based on expectations for 2015, seems to be primarily statistically based.
Start with a list of "honorable mentions". Only Tribesman is Cody Allen. Moving up the bottom, we find:

70. C Yan Gomes, Cleveland Indians

After posting a 4.2 WAR in just 88 games in 2013, Yan Gomes took over as the Indians' everyday catcher last season. He proved his 2013 performance was no fluke, posting a .785 OPS with 21 home runs and 74 RBI to win Silver Slugger honors, while continuing to be one of the better defensive catchers in the league as well.

37. LF Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians saw enough out of Michael Brantley in 2013, when he hit .284/.332/.396 with 26 doubles and 10 home runs, to offer him a four-year, $25 million extension last offseason.

That turned out to be one of the best moves of the winter, as Brantley broke out in a big way, hitting .327/.385/.506 with 45 doubles, 20 home runs, 97 RBI and 23 stolen bases, finishing third in AL MVP voting.

A .333 BABIP and a HR/FB percentage that jumped from 6.8 to 12.7, per FanGraphs, is at least reason to pause, but he looked more like a 27-year-old player finally putting it all together than a regression candidate amid a fluke year.

[/11. RHP Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indains

Corey Kluber showed signs of better things to come in 2013, going 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA (3.30 FIP) and 136 strikeouts in 147.1 innings, but no one could have predicted just how good he'd be in 2014.

The 28-year-old not only emerged as the ace of the Cleveland Indians rotation after Ubaldo Jimenez departed and Justin Masterson struggled, but he also broke out as one of the best arms in the game on his way to AL Cy Young honors.

After going 9-6 with a 3.01 ERA in the first half, he was absolutely dominant following the break, finishing the season 9-3 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in his final 14 starts.

That all adds up to 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA, 1.095 WHIP and 269 strikeouts in 235.2 innings.

An AL-best 2.35 FIP and a very reasonable .316 BABIP, per FanGraphs, all point to the breakout being for real, and we can again expect Kluber to be one of the game's best in 2015.

Is that enough talent to be a playoff team? With 30 teams to share the talent, the average team will rate 3 in the top 100. We earned our fair share. With one of them the 5th rated starting pitcher, that gives us a good start. Obviously our success depends on the continued success of the pitchers who looked great at the end of 2014 but don't have the career track records to make this list.

Is that enough talent to be a playoff team?

To me, it's obvious what is the key to this team.

It's that rotation - which has the ability to be FREAKY good. Salazar and Carrasco especially, but add Bauer. These guys have scary upside and if they pitch like last year's 2nd half it will be a fun season.