J
ose Ramirez (Photo: Chuck Crow/The Plain Dealer)
So what does Cleveland have in Jose Ramirez?
Despite his breakout 2014, Ramirez still profiles as an average guy going forward
By Jim Piascik
December 9, 2014
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As the hot stove season heats up, it seems the Cleveland player eliciting the most decisive opinions is Jose Ramirez.
Which raises the question: just what does Cleveland have in Jose Ramirez?
We know what Ramirez has done as a major leaguer. After playing the role of plus-baserunning sparkplug off of the bench down the stretch in the playoff race in 2013, Ramirez spent the first part of the 2014 season in Columbus waiting his turn. Following the trade of Asdrubal Cabrera to the Nationals at the trade deadline, Ramirez assumed the role of everyday shortstop and ran with it.
The results for Ramirez were striking. The shortstop -- competing in just his age-21 season -- put up 1.8 fWAR and rWAR, while also being +7.0 runs in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and +4.0 runs in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). The pleasant combination was easy to see and a sight for sore eyes.
Ramirez finished fourth in rWAR among Cleveland position players (and fifth in fWAR) and was one of the very few players on the team who rated out positively on defense in 2014.
Naturally, given Ramirez’s youth and the way he came on strong at the major league level, the 22-year-old looks like a building block for years to come.
But it might not be that simple.
The flaws with defensive metrics
Scouting reports have long dinged Ramirez on defense, not seeing him as a player who really stands out as someone who can handle shortstop over the long haul. Being competent at shortstop has its value, but Ramirez seemed to surge past that in 2014.
The problem is, while Ramirez handled shortstop quite well last year, that does not necessarily mean he will continue doing that going forward.
The current, publically-available fielding metrics we have do a pretty good job of determining what happened on the field in a given year, but in order to say with some certainty what a player’s true-talent fielding ability is, we need something approaching a three-year sample. With Ramirez, all we have right now is less than one-half of a season at shortstop.
Given that the scouting reports on Ramirez question his ability as an elite defender -- painting him more as a steady guy -- it appears last year was more of a hot streak in the field as opposed to some huge step forward. In fact, buying all of Ramirez’s performance in the field last year per DRS means believing he is at the same level as J.J. Hardy, the guy who has won three Gold Gloves in a row.
And by UZR, it means believing Ramirez is as good as Andrelton Simmons. It is possible Ramirez is more of an above-average fielder at shortstop than an adequate one, but realistically, quite a bit of regression should be coming for the 22-year-old. He just is not going to stay on Simmons level over the long run.
Ramirez’s WAR totals in half of a season last year look really good, but a lot of that value is coming from his great defense in 2014. But if that takes a few steps back -- as it looks like it should -- it will seriously hurt Ramirez in the future.
They know that Lindor’s on his way
So if we expect Ramirez to fall back toward the pack defensively, it only makes sense that he will lose the job once Francisco Lindor gets the call to the major leagues. There is no timetable set in stone for that happening, but it should be somewhere in the May-June range, once the organization deems the top prospect ready to take over.
With Lindor’s arrival definitely pushing Ramirez out of the everyday shortstop role, the 22-year-old will have to get his playing time elsewhere. While he could play second base, the reality is most teams (the Marlins excluded) do not trade players they just gave long-term contracts. That, combined with the fact that Kipnis is a classic bounce back candidate, will probably keep Ramirez from spending significant time at second base in a Cleveland uniform.
In theory, Ramirez could move to third base -- where he would almost certainly be an upgrade defensively over Lonnie Chisenhall, but offensively, his bat would probably leave something to be desired. The 22-year-old’s .262/.300/.346 line, .084 isolated power, and 85 wRC+ stacks up well enough at shortstop, but moving to the hot corner causes some problems.
Code: Select all
Position AVG OBP SLG ISO wRC+
SS 0.254 0.308 0.368 0.115 86
3B 0.259 0.319 0.403 0.145 99
Ramirez essentially hit like a league-average shortstop in 2014, but if he were to start spending time at third base, he would be significantly below-average. While the Royals’ World Series run put the spotlight back on defense, teams still need to hit. Ramirez would help defensively at third base, but for a team looking for a few upgrades on offense, moving the 22-year-old to third base would be a step backward at the plate.
Flying high like Altuve, struggling like Segura, or staying the path?
Ramirez hit well enough to rack up some value in 2014, but going forward, how he does offensively will be heavily influenced by his luck on balls in play. Due to Ramirez’s low-strikeout, low-walk, high-contact, and low-power approach, the 22-year-old puts a lot of balls in play while not driving the ball for extra base hits all that frequently.
When Ramirez is sitting right around league-average in BABIP, like last year, he posts a below-average yet acceptable offensive season for an up-the-middle player. But BABIP can be a fickle thing.
A player with a similar offensive profile to Ramirez in 2014 was Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve, he of the league-leading .341 batting average and 135 wRC+. Of course, Altuve was very heavily helped by his .360 BABIP, and the year before his elite 2014, he posted a 85 wRC+ and below-average 1.2 fWAR.
On the other side of the coin, another player with a similar offensive profile to Ramirez in 2014 was Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Jean Segura, who saw his BABIP sink to .275, and thus, his wRC+ to 67 and his fWAR to an essentially replacement level 0.3.
It is possible Ramirez can hit like Altuve from time to time -- which would make him a fringe MVP candidate -- and it is possible he can sink down to Segura’s level, which makes him borderline unplayable. But it is more likely he will stay on his current path, which leaves him as a roughly average player going forward.
There is nothing wrong with having league-average players on a team -- in fact, they are very necessary -- but Ramirez will soon be a league-average player without a regular position. It is possible that Ramirez could have a season like Altuve in him, but it is also possible he has a Segura-like season in him as well.
The likely result will be in the middle -- also known as Ramirez’s 2014 without the elite defense -- which is something that does not quite fit into Cleveland’s future plans. That is why, if a trade presents itself that fill one of the organization’s other holes -- like for a power hitter like Brandon Moss or some kind of right-handed threat like Yoenis Cespedes -- Ramirez should not be untouchable, even with his years of team control and minimum salary through the 2017 season.
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