What exactly happened to Lonnie Chisenhall's .393 batting average? Hey, Hoynsie

Paul Hoynes, Northeast Ohio Media Group By Paul Hoynes, Northeast Ohio Media Group
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on August 16, 2014 at 6:00 AM, updated August 16, 2014 at 9:51 AM

Hey, Hoynsie: Is there any concern in the front office that Lonnie Chisenhall's early season success was an outlier? Is there any chance Giovanni Urshela gets a look sometime this season if Chisenhall can't stabilize his hitting? If Chisenhall doesn't pick things up, and the answer isn't Urshela, what do you see the Indians doing next year? – Gavin Potter, Shaker Heights.

Hey, Gavin: This is really Chisenhall's first full season in the big leagues so no one knows exactly what kind of hitter he is at this level.

When he was batting .393 (66-for-168) on June 11, I don't think anyone thought he would maintain that all year. The plunge, however, has been swift, but the baseball season is all about a gradual evening out. Chisenhall has hit .197 (35-for-178) since that day in June and went into the weekend series against the Orioles hitting .292, a drop of more than 100 points.

Still, it was one of the top 20 batting averages in the American League.

Urshela has had a breakout year offensively at Columbus and Akron, but this season I think Mike Aviles would get a shot at third before he would. The Indians still feel Urshela can help the big-league club and are helping him work on his plate discipline.

Hey, Hoynsie: I'm not sure I understand why the Dolan ownership group honored Jim Thome. They let him walk. His great years were under Dick Jacobs and John Hart. Are they trying to say that they are sorry? Are they desperate for him to retire an Indian when he gets elected to the Hall of Fame? – Mo Harris, Cleveland.

Hey, Mo: I'm not sure I understand why you have a problem understanding this? Thome hit more home runs than any other player in Indians history and the team decided to build him a statue. It sounds pretty basic to me.

Free agents leave their original teams all the time for any number of reasons. Omar Vizquel and Sandy Alomar Jr. left the Indians under the Dolans' watch and both were selected to the team's hall of fame under the same owners even though their best years were under a previous regime. When the Dolans were negotiating to keep Thome in Cleveland in 2002, among the bells and whistles they offered, was a Thome statue. The talk came up again when Thome rejoined the Indians for the last part of the 2011 season.

A team or player cannot dictate what team the player represents upon being elected to Cooperstown. That is decided by the Hall of Fame itself and the decision is based on what team the player has his best years with. In regards to Thome, that would have to be the Indians.

Hey, Hoynsie: Does Carlos Carrasco have a shot of being put back in the starting rotation? – Ted Y., Salem.

Hey, Ted: As you know by now, the answer is yes. He started in New York against the Yankees on Sunday and pitched five scoreless innings. It earned him another start Saturday night against the Orioles.

Hey, Hoynsie: The Dolans have spent a lot of money honoring players in the Jacobs/Hart era. Why did they change the name of the ballpark, then? Might they change it back to Jacobs Field? – Beth Ann Bradley, Cleveland.

Hey, Beth Ann: In January of 2008, Progressive Insurance purchased the naming rights to then Jacobs Field and, not surprisingly, renamed it Progressive Field. They're paying the Indians $3.6 million a year over the 16-year deal for those rights.

Former Tribe owner Dick Jacobs had paid $10 million for the naming rights to the ballpark when it opened in 2004. The deal expired in 2006 and the Indians started looking for another buyer.

So I don't think you'll see a name change at the Tribe's ballpark anytime soon.

Hey, Hoynsie: The Indians went 5-2 against the Red Sox and 4-3 against the Yankees this year. When was the last time they won the season series against both teams in the same season? – Gene La Suer, Des Moines, Iowa.

Hey, Gene: It's been a while since the Indians have been able to turn that kind of double dip. In 1992, they went 7-6 against the Red Sox and 7-6 against the Yankees. They didn't do so well against everybody else, ending the year at 76-86.

Hey, Hoynsie: I am a realist by nature so I think it is time for the Tribe to realize that the postseason probably isn't going to happen. What are the odds that the Tribe closes the book on Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn for the year and takes an extended look at Jesus Aguilar and others? Also, what are the odds that the Tribe gives Corey Kluber a "Chris Sale" type extension offer this off-season? – Casey Dubiel, Belmont.

Hey, Casey: Swisher might be done for the season, but not because of any decision made by the Indians. He's scheduled to have his right knee examined Tuesday in Los Angeles and could be facing surgery. Bourn was scheduled to be activated Friday after being on the disabled list since July 6 with a strained left hamstring.

The Indians are already looking at rookie position players Roberto Perez, Zach Walters, Jose Ramirez and Tyler Holt. I would expect Aguilar will be included, especially if Swisher is finished for the year.

I think it's a no-brainer that the Indian will approach Kluber with contract extension during the offseason.

I sure hope they are willing, and able, to work out long term deals with Kluber and Allen, like they've done with core position players. I know pitchers are more risky than hitters but I this both of these guys are the real deal.

The way pitchers go down these days, a 4-5 year deal with Kluber would be as far as I would go. Last offseason's negotiations with Masterson may provide a clue as to how they approach this. They likely wouldn't go over 4 IMO.

It paid off with Masterson, holding the line. And the refusal to go 4 years with Ubaldo as well. He's about pitched his way out of the rotation in Baltimore.

(PS - we would take him back now with the O's eating a bunch of the contract - Callaway can fix him again...hehehe)

Cody Allen's arm isn't getting nearly the wear and tear. Also the money isn't as big for closers. Go as far as you can with him IMO.

Indians signed RHP Scott Atchison to a one-year contract extension with a club option for 2016.
Jordan Bastian of MLB.com reports that Atchison will make $900,000 in 2015 while the contract includes a $100,000 buyout on a $1 million buyout for 2016. After joining the Indians on a minor league contract over the winter, the 38-year-old has posted a 2.95 ERA and 37/9 K/BB ratio over 55 innings this season. The extension is well deserved.


Source: Paul Hoynes on Twitter
Aug 19 - 12:39 PM

Jim Harbaugh once peed in his pants so he could meet a Cleveland Indians player


Jason Rowan / Sportress of Blogitude
Yardbarker

AUG 21, 2014 3:13p ET


San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh clearly is an intense man with steely-eyed focus, always able to keep his eye on the prize despite any potential distraction. It helps explain what transformed him from a middling NFL quarterback to one of the premiere head coaches in the business. But who knew that drive, determination and focus began to develop when Harbaugh was a pipsqueak 5-year-old?

Harbaugh engaged in a fascinating Q&A with the Mercury News’ Tim Kawakami for a Talking Points column recently. The interview revolved around the fiery coach’s passion for baseball and included a very interesting — and messy — anecdote about how, when he was a wee (wee) lad, he relieved himself in his pants instead of using the restroom so he wouldn’t miss meeting a Cleveland Indians player along with his brother, John:

We went to a Cleveland Indians game. It was one of those games where there was maybe a thousand, 700 people left when it was over. I think the lights had gone out during the game, the old Municipal Stadium.

But you could meet a player after the game. And there was–I think it was a first baseman named McGraw (note: can’t find a player named McGraw on the late-1960s Indians, but the blurriness is understandable; he was 5!). Might’ve been a third baseman.

Anyway, I know we entered the field from the first-base side, just to get a picture with him. Just to get a Polaroid picture.


And I had to go to the bathroom really bad. So I had to make a decision: Me and my brother were like 20 people from actually being able to go onto the field and take a picture with (the player) right by the first-base bag.

And it was either go to the bathroom and not get a picture, or do it right there in my pants. So I chose to go in my pants, and my parents have this picture of a big ring right here (points to an obvious place on the front of his pants).

I just want that picture for some reason. I really want that picture.

There you have it. Jim Harbaugh once peed in his pants just to meet a major leaguer. Again, that’s determination, even if it involves soiling oneself. Delightful.

Harbaugh continues detailing his person pee-pee party:

-Q: Seven-year-old you. Yeah, I can see that.

-HARBAUGH: -I was five. My brother was seven. Might’ve been six.

-Q: You’re posing in the picture with your brother, the player and your pants like that?

-HARBAUGH: Yeah, he’s in the middle. He’s got his arms around me and my brother (laughs as he puts his arms out like a little kid happily grabbing a baseball player).

I’ve got to get my parents to see if they can get that picture. I’ve seen it through the years. I’m the only one that really notices (the visible dampness) – there it is.

Obviously, given this occurred decades ago, Harbaugh wasn’t wearing his trademark and ever-present Dockers. But if he had ...

Also: That photo has got to be tracked down.

[H/T for Dockers graphic to SB Nation, top image via Daily Mail]

Zach Walters is the feature of the hour.

While James Ramsey, the outfield received in exchange for Justin Masterson, remains in AAA, Zach Walters, the piece received in exchange for Asdrubal Cabrera, has contributed seriously to the major league club's effort. With 5 HR, 14 K in his stint with Cleveland and robust full-season triple-slash line of .213/.272/.547, Zach Walters is interesting both because his two solo home runs on Thursday and Friday provided the only runs that Cleveland scored in either game and also because his extreme-strikeout, extreme-power profile from (ostensibly) a middle-infielder makes for an exceedingly intriguing combination.

To date, Walters has appeared to be a caricature. Going forward, he will be a player with pronounced asymmetries in his game, but he is unlikely to have as extreme a profile as he does now. Extremeness in point: Walters has 8 hits with Cleveland. 5 are home runs. This probably isn't going to keep up, for better and for worse.

One might wish to begin with the negatives. Since an 'average' MLB player is, in fact, one of the best baseball players in the world, 'regression' is not a sufficient reason in itself to believe that Walters's extreme strikeout rate will return to the league average. His strikeout rate - 37.0% of all plate appearances - puts him at the second-highest rate in the majors among all players with 80+ plate appearances. Regression alone is not likely.

However, one can say that Walters's minor league numbers suggest that his currently stratospheric strikeout rate is unlikely to remain stratospheric - high, certainly, but not as debilitating as it has been. ZiPS is a projection system developed by Dan Szymborski, and it takes into account the fact that AAA to the majors is by far the biggest jump in talent in any level of American baseball; when projecting minor leaguers, ZiPS categorically, aggressively, and reasonably, projects minor leaguers to do much worse than their track record.

Such was the case with Walters; whereas his highest strikeout percent at AAA was 26.7% over a 105 PA stint in 2012, ZiPS projects Walters's strikeout rate at 30.1% the rest of the year. Walters is unlikely to post better strikeout rates than a Victor Martinez or even a Nick Swisher, but that still leaves substantial room for improvement.

This 50th-percentile projection takes the middle route, and assumes that Walters is like any other high-K minor leaguer. This is a possibly-flawed assumption, since it does not account for the eyesight and mental state of Zach Walters, but even the tale of the tape can lead to ambiguous results. For instance, when Walters swung at a breaking ball that bounced several feet in front of the plate on Friday, this could serve as a sign that either the changes that Walters must make to substantially improve his K rate are simple or, on the other hand, that he is completely hopeless against major league breaking balls. Neither of these two are obviously true, and neither are obviously false. Hence, the 50th-percentile projection, that Walters will have a pronounced, but far less-extreme, strikeout rate going forward is one that is certainly the most likely.

Likewise, Walters's BABIP to date has been extremely low - at .222 on the year, Walters's BABIP is far below average. For established major leaguers, one can typically confidently assert that a player's true talent BABIP lies near .300 - fluctuations of, say, 78 points in one direction or the other indicates either unsustainably good (or bad) performance or that the batter in question is Ichiro (or Mike Moustakas). Walters's .222 BABIP would indicate that his batting average on balls in play should likely increase were Walters an established major league player with a clear baseline level of talent; since Walters is not an MLB vet, he has not proven his true-talent BABIP is .300.

Indeed, ZiPS, being highly skeptical of minor league numbers as it is, projects that, given Walters's minor league BABIP, his major-league true-talent BABIP is .285 - notably below league average, but far better than his current clip. He might be better than that number or he might be worse; for reasons listed above, the projection is merely the most likely outcome, not a guarantee of future performance. So while Walters finds himself mired in an inability to get hits on balls not hit out of the park, ZiPS projects based on Walters's own past performance that it will get better.

In turn, however, if one is going to assume that Walters's flaws are going to be tempered going forward, one should also assume that his positives will likewise be tempered; namely, Walters's extreme power. To date in 2014, Walters has hit 8 home runs in 81 plate appearances. Over 600 plate appearances, that extrapolates to 59 home runs. Walters is not a true-talent 59 home run player. Giancarlo Stanton is not a true-talent 59 HR player. Peak Barry Bonds might have been a true-talent 59 HR player, and even he hit over 50 home runs only once. Because Zach Walters is not the greatest power hitter to have ever graced the earth, by prolonged drought or slow ebb, his home run clip will slow down substantially. More certain than improvements in his anomalous BABIP or K%, Zach Walters will eventually stop hitting home runs once every ten plate appearances.

That said, ZiPS does not expect his power to disappear; to the contrary, it expects, Walters to receive 81 plate appearances the rest of the year and hit 4 home runs in each. While the PA number will depend both on the health of the roster and Walters's own ability, four home runs over 81 plate appearances is a fairly aggressive take on Walters's power - approximately 25-30 HR/600 PA, depending on the rounding used.

What this yields is a ZiPS-projected .229/.262/.434 triple-slash line, which would yield a marginally below-average performance. If Walters lives up to his projections, his limiting factor would be his on-base percentage, fueled by a tremendously-low projected walk rate of 3.9%. To date, Walters's walk rate has been a roughly-average 7.7%, sufficient in sustaining an OBP over .270 despite a floundering batting average. Were his BA to return to projected levels and he retain his walks, then Walters becomes a serious, sustainable offensive threat.

However, Walters's minor league track record has been largely walk-free, though recency favors his future success in walking - while he has only eclipsed a 6% BB% in three different level-years, the most recent was his 2014 stint in AAA - the same year that he posted a BB% over 7% in the majors. If one were to argue against the projected walk rate, one would argue that a developing player's most recent data is by far the most relevant and should be categorically preferred, and all of Walters's recent information suggests an increased capacity for walks; the validity of this argument is rather ambiguous without formally running data, and it's possible that this is merely the bias inherent in 'recency bias,' but it's nevertheless the sort of argument that could pass intuitive muster.

Zach Walters's game right now is a caricature of a one-tool, no-discipline power hitter. If his offensive game changes the way the projections expect it to, Walters's bat will become far less valuable than it is now. Under any circumstances, this torrid streak can't keep up in the long-scale; still, Walters's recent stretch brings up memories from Yan Gomes's 2013 breakout, as well as those of Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo, and Corey Kluber, all of which build to the question that have defined the last seven years of this franchise: Why does anyone ever trade minor prospects to Cleveland?

John can be reached on Twitter at @JHGrimm. He can also be reached by e-mail at john.h.grimm@hotmail.com.

I used to consider myself a "stats guy" and loved the early Bill James books. But this stuff is way beyond me now.
I do realize that Walters has hit a lot of homers and has struck a lot, too, and probably will do somewhat of less as time goes by. Don't understand any of the rest

Road to ruin or redemption? 30 games in 30 days for Cleveland Indians

By Paul Hoynes, Northeast Ohio Media Group

on August 25, 2014 at 10:33 PM, updated August 26, 2014 at 7:26 AM

CLEVELAND, Ohio –

For those who say the baseball season is too long, the Indians give you the second season shot right out of a cannon.

Beginning Tuesday night at U.S. Cellular Field against the White Sox, they will play 30 games in 30 days. In baseball time, that's Usain Bolt running the 100 meters.

When it ends on Sept. 24, there will be closure. No more guessing about what makes this team tick. Everything you thought you knew or believed about the 2014 Indians will be proven true or dashed.

It will be homeward bound or October bound.

"We've got our work cut out for us," said manager Terry Francona.

No argument there. But there is opportunity.

The 30-game march includes six games against the AL Central-leading Royals. The Indians, as of Monday, their last off day until Sept. 25, trailed the Royals by six games.

Also included in the 30-game mini drama will be seven against Detroit. The Tigers, who have won the last three AL Central titles, trail the Royals by 1.5 games entering Tuesday. In the wild card, they were one game behind Seattle for the second wild card spot, with the Mariners hosting Texas late Monday. The Indians were five games back.

The Indians are 7-6 against the Royals and 7-5 against Detroit.

Chris Antonetti, the Indians' ever-practical general manager, took an even-handed approach to the Tribe's 30-in-30 gantlet.

"It's important for us to play well for the balance of our games," he said. "We're playing a bunch of games in our division -- 13 against Kansas City and Detroit and 12 against Minnesota and Chicago."

The Indians are 7-6 against the Twins and 5-8 against the White Sox.

The basic agreement says teams cannot play more than 20 consecutive days without an off day. Sept. 8 was originally an off day, but the Indians will use it to play the Angels in a makeup game from a June 18th rainout.

"If you remember, we didn't want to play a doubleheader the next day (June 19) because the weather wasn't good," said Antonetti. "There was no other great mutual off day. Even this isn't ideal, because the Angels have to come in here for one game during a trip."

The Angels' one-game appearance at Progressive Field comes in the midst of a 10-game swing to Houston, Minneapolis and Arlington, Texas.

"The good thing is we will have reinforcements," said Antonetti.

Rosters can expand on Sept. 1. Some of the Tribe's call-ups will arrive then. Others will report after Class AAA Columbus' season ends. The Clippers are currently leading the International League's Western Division with the postseason beckoning.

Long stretches of games due to postponements are nothing new in baseball, especially for teams in the Midwest that play in open-air stadiums. The Tigers just finished a stretch of 32 games in 30 days from July 18-Aug. 17. They went 14-18.

Still, it's been a long time since the Indians have played more than 30 consecutive days. The last time, according to the team's PR department, was in 1968 when the Tribe played 38 consecutive days from May 21 through June 27. They played 41 games in that stretch – there were doubleheaders on every Sunday – and went 19-22.

The 2000 Indians, competing for the wild card, were confronted with a stretch of 23 games in 20 days to end the season. At one point, they played three doubleheaders in six days. They went 14-9 and lost the wild card to Seattle by one game.

In this 30-game stretch, the Indians will play 16 games against teams with losing records and 14 against teams with winning records. Fourteen will be played at home where the Indians are very good (39-25), while 16 will be on the road where they leave much to be desired (27-38).

Following the Sept. 25 off day, the Indians end the regular season with a three-game series against the Rays at Progressive Field.

"Ideally what we'd like to do is to have our starting pitching perform like it has recently, continue to get good work from the bullpen and get some of our offensive players going," said Antonetti.

The rotation of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and T.J. House has gone 9-4 with a 1.70 ERA since Aug. 9. The bullpen has been a strength all season, but offensively the Indians have scored three or fewer runs in 17 of their 35 games since the All-Star break.

Nick Swisher is done for the season with double knee surgery. David Murphy is out until mid-September with a strained right oblique muscle. Ryan Raburn is on a rehab assignment at Columbus as he recovers from a sore right wrist. If there was ever a time for Jason Kipnis and Michael Bourn to overcome their season-long battles with injuries, this is it.

Finally, the Indians begin their 30-30 quest with nine wins in their last 13 games and the second-youngest roster in the American League, older only than Houston. They are currently carrying eight rookies.

"Ideally what we'd like to do is to have our starting pitching perform like it has recently, continue to get good work from the bullpen and get some of our offensive players going," said Antonetti.

Sounds good

CLEVELAND, Ohio --

The Indians' roster could balloon in size in one week.

Jason Giambi will likely rejoin the big league club following a short minor-league rehab stint, which followed a lengthy disabled-list stint. Ryan Raburn and David Murphy should return from injuries shortly thereafter.

With the flip of the calendar and expanded rosters often comes an influx of minor league additions. Teams can carry up to 40 players on their active rosters. Here is a rundown of whom the Indians might tab for a look in September.

Austin Adams

Chances of a call-up: Very likely

40-man roster: Yes

Triple-A numbers: 51 innings, 41 hits allowed, 50 strikeouts, 2.47 ERA

Adams turned 28 last week, so it's time for the Indians to figure out if he has a future with them. He has made three appearances this season and Terry Francona can never have enough relievers.

Jesus Aguilar

Chances of a call-up: Very likely

40-man roster: Yes

Triple-A numbers: .294 average, .875 OPS, 17 home runs, 69 RBIs

It's a bit surprising that Aguilar hasn't already been summoned to fill the designated hitter role with Nick Swisher sidelined for the season. His power numbers have dipped dramatically since the early going, but Aguilar still offers a threatening right-handed stick, something the Tribe could use.

Tyler Cloyd

Chances of a call-up: Not likely

40-man roster: No

Triple-A numbers: 10-8, 3.98 ERA, 160 2/3 innings, 177 hits allowed, 113 strikeouts

Cloyd probably had a better shot at a promotion last month, when the Indians were searching every nook and cranny for starting pitching. Now it appears as though the club will ride out Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer and T.J. House for the duration. There is a chance the Indians could tab Cloyd for a role as an extra long man for the final month, however.

Elliot Johnson

Chances of a call-up: Not likely

40-man roster: No

Triple-A numbers: .224 average, .652 OPS, four homers, 31 RBIs

Johnson has already been designated for assignment by the Indians this season. Justin Sellers figures to have the upper hand between the two.

Francisco Lindor

Chances of a call-up: Tough to tell

40-man roster: No

Triple-A numbers: .287 average, .712 OPS, four homers, 12 RBIs

It's the $1 million question. Will the Indians let Lindor begin to accrue major league service time? He had consecutive four-hit games for Columbus on Friday and Saturday. If they promote him, does Jose Ramirez sit for the rest of September?

Mark Lowe

Chances of a call-up: Not likely

40-man roster: No

Triple-A numbers: 39 innings, 40 hits allowed, 46 strikeouts, 5.54 ERA

He has already been designated for assignment once. His performance at both Triple-A and the big league level leaves a little to be desired.

Shaun Marcum

Chances of a call-up: Tough to tell

40-man roster: No

Triple-A numbers: 11 innings (six relief outings), seven hits allowed, seven strikeouts, 1.64 ERA

The Indians took a flyer on Marcum as a potential starting option upon recovery from shoulder surgery. His rehab took longer than envisioned, so just recently he started working out of the Clippers' bullpen. Is he ready for a big-league cameo?

Zach McAllister

Chances of a call-up: Very likely

40-man roster: Yes

Triple-A numbers: 6-1, 2.18 ERA, 62 innings, 53 hits allowed, 51 strikeouts

He'll likely be back, but how will the Indians use him? Will they go with a six-man rotation? Will they keep Kluber on regular rest and rotate the other five starters? Will McAllister or someone else pitch in relief?

Carlos Moncrief

Chances of a call-up: Not likely

40-man roster: Yes

Triple-A numbers: .278 average, .773 OPS, 12 homers, 63 RBIs

The fact that Chris Dickerson remains on the roster probably indicates that the organization doesn't deem Moncrief ready for big league action. Tyler Holt received the first promotion among outfielders. There doesn't appear to be space for another one.

Josh Outman

Chances of a call-up: Not likely

40-man roster: No

Triple-A numbers: 20 1/3 innings, 21 hits allowed, 20 strikeouts, 4.87 ERA

The Indians already banished Outman at a bizarre time earlier this season. Plus, the bullpen is set with three lefties: Marc Rzepczynski, Nick Hagadone and Kyle Crockett.

Bryan Price

Chances of a call-up: Likely

40-man roster: Yes

Triple-A numbers: 24 1/3 innings, 19 hits allowed, 25 strikeouts, 2.96 ERA

Like Adams, he's 28 and is on the 40-man roster. Time is ticking for the Tribe to tell if he can hang around the big leagues.

James Ramsey

Chances of a call-up: Not likely

40-man roster: No

Triple-A numbers: .302 average, .902 OPS, three homers, 15 RBIs (in 22 games)

The Indians seem content with Holt and Dickerson splitting the right-field opportunities. When Murphy and Raburn return, there won't be much time for another outfielder, especially one with limited experience at Triple-A. He could be on the radar for 2015, though.

Justin Sellers

Chances of a call-up: Likely

40-man roster: Yes

Triple-A numbers: .251 average, .637 OPS, three homers, 34 RBIs

He has already played for the Tribe this year and is on the 40-man roster, so there's no reason for the club not to recall him. He could serve as a late-game defensive replacement.

Giovanny Urshela

Chances of a call-up: Not likely

40-man roster: No

Triple-A numbers: .274 average, .818 OPS, 13 homers, 65 RBIs

The Indians are still trying to figure out a position for Zach Walters. That, plus a glut of infielders and the fact that he isn't on the 40-man roster probably signal a 2015 arrival date for Urshela.

Second Thoughts: The time is now for Indians to make a push

By Michael Goodman (IBI)

August 26, 2014

Playoff Odds Slowly Falling

Despite going 4-2 on the week, the Indians odds of making the playoffs actually decreased. That number now stands at 9%.

I’m a big believer that you should always try to put your best foot forward when you’re contending, and with that as a guide I wouldn’t say I was entirely thrilled with the Indians activity at the trade deadline. I understand the moves that were made, and liked them, but I had hoped they would add another starter or bat along with getting what they could out of Masterson and Cabrera. Even though the rotation looks to have turned a corner, the bat could have been useful. Now things are getting dire on the playoff front.

It’s not that the team isn’t playing well. As mentioned, the starting pitching staff has given the team a chance to win nearly every game over the last couple of weeks. The lineup hasn’t been doing well, and a lot of the production we’re getting is from some of the younger players. Of course, there are several core players who have been underperforming all year so this isn’t exactly a new problem. The real problem is that as good as the Indians are playing, the other contenders are simply playing better. It doesn’t help that the Indians have continued to blow opportunities either.

We’re at the point in the season when games like Friday’s meltdown in the late innings shouldn’t happen. Two base-running blunders in the eighth and two errors in the ninth sealed a loss and wasted a great start fromCarlos Carrasco. The defensive meltdown is just one of many that have occurred this season, and I’ve discussed the defense is more depth below.

Still, it doesn’t help that the team managed only two hits off Brad Peacock. When you’re going to be facing pitchers like David Price, James Shields, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Phil Hughes several times down the stretch you can’t afford to let a pitcher like Peacock carve you up.

After this next series against the White Sox the schedule is going to pick up quite a bit. The Indians will have seven straight games against Kansas City and Detroit, and truthfully it’s a stretch of games that could essentially knock them out of postseason contention. The next ten days are going to tell us a lot. Some key wins against our AL Central rivals could turn the tides on the Indians’ falling playoff chances or sink them once and for all.

Looking Ahead at the Defense

I’ve wanted to cover this for a little while. The one thing that really concerns me next year is the defense. Most of the players we see every day can be safely penciled into next year’s team. This group has been historically bad defensively, so where can improvement come from?

According to Fangraphs, only Yan Gomes rates as an above average defender of the Indians’ starting position players. Though, it should be noted that Jose Ramirez rates positively and he very well could be the team’s starting shortstop at the outset of the 2015 season. We can expect some improvement at shortstop, whether that’s in the form of Jose Ramirez or Francisco Lindor. Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez will provide solid defense at catcher. That leaves question marks everywhere else.

UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) estimates each fielder’s contribution to runs above and below an average fielder at his position and UZR/150 calculates that same number over 150 games. At third base, Lonnie Chisenhall has a -24 UZR/150. Jason Kipnis’ UZR/150 at second base is -15.8. David Murphy in right field has a -11.5 UZR.Michael Brantley has a -14.4 UZR/150 and Michael Bourn’s is -20.1 in center field. For whatever you want to make of these numbers, one thing I do find interesting is that Brantley rates as a better center fielder than Bourn. That’s yet another indication of Bourn’s eroding skills as a defender and base runner.

The Indians may have already started the process of fixing some of these issues. Carlos Santana is the team’s permanent first baseman, a position in which he’s excelled defensively (5.3 UZR/150). Nick Swisher was a huge liability at first base and right field this year, and he’ll be resigned to DH duty full-time in 2015. I don’t necessarily think it’s a slam dunk that David Murphy is on the team next year either. I could see the Indians trying to move him this offseason, and the in-house candidates to replace him, Zach Walters and James Ramsey, profile as better defenders.

That leaves third base, second base and center field as problem spots. No matter what the defensive metrics say, it’s hard for me to believe that Michael Brantley is an issue in left field. I think that’s supported by his numbers in center field and the fact that he’s fourth in the American League with 11 assists. Kipnis and Bourn aren’t going anywhere, and I don’t think Chisenhall is on his way out either even with Giovanny Urshela waiting in the wings. All three have played better at their positions, and it’ll be expected that they put in the work to return to form.

There’s one more thing that could improve the defense - the starting pitchers. The Indians have a quartet of young starters with strikeout stuff that project to be in next year’s rotation. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, and Carlos Carrasco have the ability to take care of business themselves. They’ll still need the help of their defense, especially Kluber and Carrasco who are groundball pitchers, but their ability to rack up large strikeout totals can keep the ball out of the play and reduce the opportunities for the team’s defense will have to make mistakes.

Other Notes

-The Indians’ team ERA in the month of August is 2.42, good for second in MLB. Meanwhile, the team is 26th in the league in runs scored in August.

-Up next the Indians will travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox. While they’ll face their share of left-handers in the coming week, they are lucky to avoid Chris Sale in this series. T.J. House will take the mound for the Indians on Tuesday against Jose Quintana to kick off the three game series.

Wasn't it Chicago and Minnesota that played the Indians in a doubleheader a few years back in Sept?

I can't see any reason not to add Moncrief to the active roster next week. He's on the 40-man roster, has hit well in AAA debut season and has a cannon arm in RF. Tito loves a mammoth bullpen and I'm sure he'd find use for a very deep bench, too.

I would like to bring Urshela to Cleveland, too, but he's not on the 40-man roster so that becomes more complicated. A solid defender at Third is useful in itself and he's hit with surprising power this season, too.

joez wrote:

"Ideally what we'd like to do is to have our starting pitching perform like it has recently, continue to get good work from the bullpen and get some of our offensive players going," said Antonetti.

Sounds good

How about, "Stop playing defense like the Bad News Bears!"

When it comes to defense, the rookies are rubbing it in on the veterans. I expected to see more mental errors than physical ones, but that's not the case. Very few lapses in memory. This should be a fun 30 days.