Bradley Zimmer's reaction upon hearing he was selected by the Indians (Photo: University or San Francisco)
2014 MLB Draft: First day thoughts and more
By Tony Lastoria
June 6, 2014
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The Indians made four selections on the first day of the 2014 MLB Draft on Thursday picking up college outfielders Bradley Zimmer and Mike Papi along with prep pitchers Justus Sheffield and Grant Hockin. This was a big night for the Indians as they had three first round picks and a chance with such a deep draft to really bring in some top shelf talent into the system.
Below, I share my thoughts and provide insight on all of the picks and Jeff Ellis also shares his thoughts and previews the top talent still on the board as we move into rounds three through ten today.
Round 3 options
There have already been over 70 picks made in this draft, but that doesn’t mean that all the talent is gone. Jeff Ellis actually has two guys left from my big board, and every year he does this reset piece where he lists the top guys who stand out to him who are left on the board, and this year he is doing 10 reports on the guys who he views as the best 10 left.
Keaton McKinney, RHP, HS
There has been a run on high school arms but McKinney has yet to be selected. I thought he was one of the better high school arms in the class, but another arm from Iowa Mitch Keller was selected over him. Keller is a fine prospect but I like McKinney’s upside more. He is 6’5” and has the best changeup of any of the prep arms in this draft. He might be a guy the Indians would consider as he fits the approach for this draft as he is more a pitcher than a thrower and shows an advanced feel. He is a personal favorite and a guy I would love to see the Indians select today.
Mac Marshall, LHP, HS
I will be honest, I was a bigger fan of Marshall than Sheffield. He is a good athlete who shows a very good changeup. He needs to work on his command, but there is the upside of a middle of the rotation starter. Marshall and Sheffield are very close to me, and I can’t blame the Indians for taking Sheffield. Here is another pitcher who is said to have a good feel and a simple delivery. It’s always hard to find left-handed pitching, so I am intrigued by any lefty who is an above average athlete.
Jacob Bukauskas, RHP, HS
There is only one team left who I think can possibly sign Bukauskas and it’s the Cubs, who likely went under slot with both of their picks. I am still not sure why he bothered to reclassify if he had no intention of being drafted. The Cubs could be saving money to try and draft Bukauskas in the 11th round then throw a lot at him and dare him to decline. He is the top player left to me, but I did not put him on my board as I thought he might be unsignable.
Jackson Reetz, C, HS
There has been a run on catchers so it’s a bit shocking that Reetz has not been drafted. He was long considered one of the top two high school catchers in this class. He has a strong arm and should stick behind the plate. He shows above average power and hit tools, and really doesn’t have single negative skill which is why I found it a bit shocking that he is on the board with all the catchers who have come off.
Zach Lemond, RHP, Rice
Lemond has committed the mortal sin of being sidelined for a long time without having surgery. He was a potential first rounder then barely pitched over a long stretch. It might have been better if he had just had surgery already. Teams are nervous and seem to be avoiding Lemond even though he is clearly a top 50 talent in this draft. Earlier this year he was hitting 97 as a starter. How many big bodied high school kids were taken on Thursday with the hope that they will hit 97 someday?
Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP, HS
If a team wants to take an extreme upset bet then Montes de Oca is the guy. He quickly returned from TJ surgery and was not just throwing the ball but was hitting 97 out of the gate. His fastball is a plus-plus pitch as it is fast and it moves. Everything else needs a lot of work as you would expect from a high school kid who missed time after Tommy John. It’s a risk, but I think with his fastball Montes has a floor of a pen arm.
JD Davis, 1B/OF/3B, Cal Fullerton
I have stated it before, I think more of Davis than his more heralded teammate Matt Chapman who went in round one. Davis’ power which is also from the right side is as good as Chapman to me, and worst case just a little less. Davis has a cannon arm, he hits 97 as a bullpen arm and I think he can easily move to third or outfield. He has hit for average in college and I think it is clear his hit tool is better than Chapman, and he walked more than Chapman. He is nowhere near as good an athlete, yet I am intrigued by his right-handed power and hit tool.
Brett Graves, RHP, Miss St
Graves has been a very good pitcher for Mississippi State. He lacks ideal size which I am sure has hurt Graves. He has hit 97 this year and works more in the mid 90’s. He has no problem keeping his velocity into games, but the fact that he is a 6’1” pitcher is still enough to scare off teams. His secondary pitches could use some work but there is no denying here is a kid who can hit the upper 90’s and performed well in one of the best conferences in the country.
Cobi Johnson, RHP, HS
Johnson’s father was a second round pick who pitched in the majors. He then in time became the roving pitching instructor for the Toronto Blue Jays. I am sure over the years he has used this knowledge and skill to help his son improve as a pitcher. He has a big frame at 6’4” and while he sits in the low 90’s a jump is conceivable for him. His secondary offerings are well developed and he has one of the cleanest deliveries of any high school player in this draft. I am not sure why teams didn’t take a risk on Johnson as with his background he actually seems like a safer bet than many of the other prep arms who have already been taken.
Random thoughts from Jeff
- My early thoughts on the draft this year are a bit of a mixed bag. I have no major problems with any of the Indians picks, but with all of these picks in the top 100 of a very deep prep class I would have liked to see them swing for the fence at least once. The Indians seem to be sticking with their approach from last year about not having any concerns with a player’s relative size, something that was shown by the Sheffield pick.
- The Indians also seem to be targeting guys with bloodlines as every player had someone whose family member at least played major college baseball, and for three of them they have major league ties.
- I also found it interesting that while most teams went for big arms that project to have huge velocity the Indians seemed to be targeting guys who are more pitchers than throwers. The pitchers are guys whose best stuff is more their secondary offerings.
- The most interesting pick to me is Mike Papi. The reason is he kind of goes against many of what the Indians look for or do. He is not an up the middle player and of all the drafted players he has the least impressive bloodlines and athletically he doesn’t measure up to the other three selections. All Papi does is hit, and he manages it in a park which is not hitter friendly at all. More and more this is the pick I keep looking at. Papi could really be someone interesting if he can turn his college production into pro performance.
Random thoughts from Tony
- I really like the Zimmer pick. He was a guy who was ranked in or near the top 10 of almost every draft board from national pundits, and even our own Jeff Ellis had him at #6, so I was happy to see him slide to the Indians. Why did he slide? Who knows, but I have to believe it is just how the draft worked out as perhaps teams were more focused on arms and other positions. He was still the third outfielder selected and second college outfielder. In any case, the Indians got what many viewed as a top 10 talent at #21 and someone that as the draft wore on I felt was going to be the pick if he was there for the Indians….and he was.
- Zimmer may not have the sexy big power someone may want in a first round pick, and there are probably many out there scared by the selection of an outfielder in the first round after the Trevor Crowe experience and the surprising Tyler Naquin pick from two years ago. But I think he really has a chance to get stronger and fill out his lanky frame more once he gets into a professional strength training, conditioning and nutrition program. He could just be an average power hitter along the lines of what Michael Brantley is doing right now in Cleveland, which would be fine with me provided his above average speed, good arm, solid defense and hit tool all translate well to the pro ranks. There may not be a ton of upside or sex appeal with this pick, but this could be another Michael Brantley kind of guy who just has a solid 10-12 year Major League career with a few big years mixed in there.
- The Sheffield pick is another interesting pick. With guys like Reid-Foley and others there, I know many were targeting other players, but the Indians went with what was considered the best left-handed pitcher on the board at the time of the pick. He may not blow people away with the radar gun, but 90-92 MPH and touching 94 MPH is pretty good, especially from the left side and for a high schooler. What the Indians clearly liked about him is his advanced secondary stuff, pitch ability and strike throwing ability at a young age. You combine that with some athleticism and youth and you have the foundation to a pretty good pitching prospect. We will see in time whether or not that is the case.
- A lot of people felt Luis Ortiz would be the pick at #31 but he went one pick earlier. It looks to me like Sheffield was the guy all along as he and the Indians agreed to a $1.6 million ($133K underslot) deal just hours after being selected. That may be the quickest signing for any Indians draft pick I have ever seen.
- The third pick of the day was Mike Papi and I have to say he might have a chance to be the most impactful of the three picks made on the day. While Sheffield and Zimmer may have more upside and are more well-rounded, Papi’s bat could potentially be something that really impacts the Indians lineup in the future. He is an on-base machine with a good eye at the plate and with plus power and a good frame to potentially add more where he might be a good bat for the Indians down the road. Whether he ends up as more of a two or six hole guy or develops into more of a middle of the order option remains to be seen, but the offensive upside is encouraging. It remains to be seen whether or not Papi is developed as a corner outfielder or a first baseman with the Indians, but considering their lack of prospects at first base throughout the system, I’d day he moves right to first base so he can really concentrate on improving his swing. I loved the comp that Jeff Ellis made with Papi to a young Nick Swisher. I’ll take that if it happens.
- From 2009-2013 the Indians made 50 picks in the first 10 rounds over those five years and amazingly 49 of the players were of the middle of diamond variety (Jordan Smith is the only exception). The selection of Papi is a departure from their normal strategy of pitchers, center fielders or middle infielders with top 10 picks for the Indians, so they must really like the potential with the bat.
- The Hockin pick in the second round is another one that maybe had a few people scratching their heads simply because of the higher rated talent still available and how some might perceive the pick to be a reach. It is important to note that if you were to compare the draft boards of every team side by side I am sure there would be significant differences in how players are ranked 20-100, so even though some pubs had Hockin valued around 90th or 100th overall, some had him around 40th or 50th as well. Also, for all we know, the Indians had him even higher on their board. That’s the beauty of scouting as value truly lies in the eye of the beholder and everyone sees something different.
- As for the Hockin pick, you have to love the bloodlines to Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew. He represents a departure away from the Indians recent draft philosophy to go after big upside power-armed prep pitchers in the top rounds of the draft, and perhaps this is a sneak peek into what their philosophy may be the rest of this draft to go for pitchers with more pitch ability, command and good feel for some secondary offerings coming out of high school. He is not a soft-tosser by any means as he will be at 89-92 MPH and has hit 94-95 MPH, but there appears to be little projection with his arm strength due to his already pretty mature frame. His slider, curveball and changeup have potential to be at least average offerings, he has durability, and he can command the zone with all of his pitches. I see no problem with that for a second round pick. Does he have front of the rotation upside? Probably not. But he certainly could be a nice innings eating mid-rotation starter.
- I’m still pooling together comments from scouts on the Indians picks so will include them in the next update or my draft wrap up piece at the beginning of next week.
On to Day 2 in a matter of hours which covers rounds three through 10. The Indians have eight picks and these are the money picks as we wrap up the bonus pool rounds. There should continue to be an influx of intriguing talent to start to get to know and welcome to the Indians family...
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