Aaron Nola (Photo: LSU Athletics)
2014 MLB Draft: Jeff's Big Board 2.0 - The final edition
By Jeff Ellis
June 4, 2014
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With the draft set to kick off in 24 hours, here is my final Big Board.
Some of these write-ups are the same from my previous Big Board because nothing really happened with them, but for others who had significant changes or dropped – like Grant Holmes – then the write-ups have been changed accordingly.
I am still a fan of this draft, but there is little doubt it appears to be a bit weaker than it was when my last Big Board was up as injuries have hurt the top end. Still it is a deep draft especially with prep arms, which should allow the Indians to add a lot of depth to their system.
So here it is my, personal top 43 in what is in my opinion the best draft since 2011.
(Note: PR stands for previous, as in where they were ranked on the last Big Board)
1. Brady Aiken, LHP, HS, PR 1
Aiken has drawn some Kershaw comparisons this season. He was always a great athlete with a clean motion and good mechanics. Then this year he showed up and starting hitting 97 and sitting in the mid 90’s. He was always a top 10 guy to me, but the velocity spike makes him number one on my board.
2. Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC State, PR 2
Rodon has not been as dominating this year as last year; his stuff doesn’t seem quite as sharp or devastating. Yet I can’t drop him any farther. He is not having a bad year, just not a great one. Left-handed pitchers who throw hard and have a chance at three plus pitches are not easy to find. A year ago he looked like the next David Price, so he stays at two.
3. Tyler Kolek, RHP, HS, PR 4
When it comes to Kolek it’s all about projection. He hits triple digits and is built like a linebacker. There are some command issues, which is why he isn’t as high on my board. There is a chance Kolek turns into a closer, but it’s hard to just watch Kolek for any extended period of time without seeing what he could be with an Archie Bradley type of arm and build.
4. Nick Gordon, SS, HS, PR 6
Gordon is the son of Tom Gordon and the brother of Dee Gordon. He is already much bigger than his brother, and seems like a lock to stay at shortstop. I don’t see a single below average tool to him and I think he could even develop above average power for his position. He could end up a plus defender at shortstop with one of the best arms at short in baseball. When you add in a plus hit tool and the ability to come close to 20 home runs, well that is a package that is going to be hard to pass on.
5. Alex Jackson, C/OF, HS, PR 7
Jackson has plus right handed power and there is a chance he could stick behind the plate. I think he moves to the outfield just to get his bat to the majors quicker, but if I ran a team I would play the long game and see if Jackson could end up the best hitting catcher in baseball. His power is plus and the profile behind the plate is just too good to pass on.
6. Bradley Zimmer, OF, San Francisco, PR 5
There is no prospect on this list I was more wrong about in October than Zimmer. I saw a guy who was a better Naquin with plus speed. I was more than a little wrong. Zimmer is the younger brother of Royals top prospect Kyle Zimmer and is every bit as good a prospect as his brother. Zimmer is huge at 6-feet-5, but has 65-70 grade speed. His power is starting to emerge this year, which with his size was always the hope. Now he looks like a potential five tool centerfielder to me, a Grady Sizemore-lite type of guy.
7. Grant Holmes, RHP, HS, PR 3
Holmes was a guy I might have been overzealously high on. I thought his size was a non-issue, but we saw that this was an issue as he wore down as the year went on. Early in the year he was hitting 98 and as the season went on he ended up working lower to mid-90’s. I am still a fan because Holmes is a pitcher not just a thrower who will strengthen a program. He is a very consistent pitcher with advanced secondary stuff for a high school kid. I am still a fan and I wonder where he ends up falling on draft day.
8. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina, PR 9
So how does Hoffman get higher even though he was injured recently? Well he was pitching really well before his injury and the upside is still better than anyone in this class. In a way his injury adds value because it drops his signing bonus a ton. In the draft being a cheaper sign is a huge bonus for a team. Tommy John doesn’t matter as everyone comes back and by next May he will be ready to go. So all Hoffman really misses is like 20-30 innings of baseball in a rookie league this year.
9. Touki Toussaint, RHP, HS, PR 18
Toussaint was the front runner to be the top pick in this draft two years ago. He struggled over the summer and disappointed the year before. Yet he has finally turned it back around and there is a chance he could be the best player in this draft when it’s all said and done. His command is the only thing that could stop him from being a front line ace type of starter.
10. Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU, PR 17
Nola is still a guy I am not as high on. There is a ton of value in him as I do think he could make a team out of spring training next year. I could even see a time line like Mike Leake and I think Leake is a good comparison in terms of upside and college production. I just don’t see the massive upside I would like to see in a top 10 pick. He is here mostly because he is a near finished, safe product who is a major league guarantee.
11. Brandon Finnegan, LHP, TCU, PR 10
I am a big Finnegan fan and I am dropping him a slot because of the arm issue combined with the high flame out rate of TCU pitchers. I think the Scott Kazmir comps are dead on and fair as both were smaller lefties who could bring it at high velocity. As long as there are no injury issues the floor with Finnegan is backend bullpen pitcher. I think you give him every chance to start and think he could be a front line pitcher. He has the two big red flags with his size and injury issues, but especially mid first round the talent is worth the risk to me.
12. Kyle Schwarber, 1B/C, Indiana, PR 11
It is all bat when it comes to Schwarber. He has plus power, an excellent eye at the plate and a plus hit tool. If you can find a place for his bat then he is going to bring a lot of value because he can rake. I think there is an outside chance he could catch maybe one or two times a week, play first, and DH or maybe even play left field. I have been a fan for a while and think he goes in the top 20 almost purely as a bat.
13. Max Pentecost, C, Kennesaw State, PR UR
So somehow I left Pentecost off my last list and no one called me on it. This is a huge miss. Pentecost is a true catcher with plus speed and above average batting practice power. If he can pull it all together he should be a top three player at the catcher position. I don’t have another sure fire catcher who carries a round one grade. He could end up being the first catcher who hits lead off since Jason Kendall.
14. Michael Chavis, 2B/3B, HS, PR 20
This might be too low for Chavis who has legit plus power and could play up the middle. He has played mostly third this year, but his future might be at second and some places have thought he could even be a shortstop. He is the same size as Clint Frazier and while not as good an athlete I think his power is close to Frazier’s. He could be a very special bat up the middle. I see a power bat with good athleticism that could play up the middle and I don’t get how he is not in every top 15.
15. Kyle Freeland, LHP, Evansville, PR 16
The reports on Freeland of late have been glowing. He supports plus command and three pitches which all look above average to plus. He was ninth on the BA board which caused me to reevaluate my own look at him. Plain and simple he looked better stat-wise than he had at the start of year. Pitching for Evansville it is hard to get tape on Freeland, so I have to use scouting reports and numbers, and both are glowing. Here is a lefty with okay velocity, good size, and excellent control. He is going in round one.
16. Trea Turner, SS, NC State, PR 14
It’s been a down year for every top player on the NC State team. I was a big Turner fan to start the year as he has a plus hit tool, 80 grade speed and the fact he was a plus defender at shortstop. I mean there is not much more you could want in a prospect. This year has been rough, but he finally started to rebound over the past month and teams are hopping back on. It is so hard to find a good shortstop even with the questions on Turner. After having a down year he is still going to be a top 10 pick.
17. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford, PR 12
Here is a 6-feet-5 lefty who hits the high 90’s from time to time. He has had control issues over the years, and is still walking too many batters, which has raised some concerns. He has walked 22 in only 46 innings. Newcomb seems to be gaining steam and is a likely top pick now. He is a big lefty who throws in the mid 90’s. He is still developing and is a very interesting talent.
18. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, HS, PR 22
Reid-Foley is one of the most consistent and steady high school arms, if not the most steady in this class. He has the size and stuff to be a prototypical number two/three. He is the safest high school arm to me, and I think there is still some projection in his arm. I heard reports that he had gained a little velocity this year. He doesn’t have the major upside of the other arms I had before him, but he is the top guy in that next tier of high school arms.
19. Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon St, PR 21
If you want a safe pick here is your guy. Conforto’s power is down this year but he has shown no one in the college game is better at getting on base. If this was the late 90’s he would be ticketed to the A’s. He still could go to several teams who value a safe bat as last year we saw a similar OBP safe bat go sixth in the draft to Miami. I will say this, for as great as his stats were, you do have to worry a bit about a guy with a .377 BABIP for his college career.
20. Ti’Quan Forbes, SS, HS, PR 19
I am a lot higher on Forbes than most, but I see a big kid who should stick at shortstop and if he does move it’s because of size not lack of ability. He is extremely young for this draft class, one of the youngest in the entire class. I don’t see a single skill that projects out as a negative and think he could have an above average hit and power tool. There might not be a worse position offensively in baseball than shortstop, so the ability to find a player with an above average bat for any position would make that player in the upper third of shortstops in the game.
21. Erick Fedde, RHP, PR 26
Fedde’s injury stinks, but it means he is a cheaper sign than he should be. He was finally turning the corner when he was hurt and I think he was a slam dunk top 10 pick then. So in a way it might be silly to drop him this far, yet at the same time he is still losing a year. Fedde wasn’t a top 10 guy to me and a healthy Fedde would have been in the 10-13 range, so the injury means he falls close to 10 spots and could be a steal that saves a team money as he has zero leverage.
22. Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Wichita State, PR 31
Gillaspie is from a baseball family. His brother is the starting third baseman for the White Sox and his father made it all the way up to AAA. Gillaspie has been a known player but he exploded on the scene this year. His average jumped up 90 points, which was aided by a 90 point jump in BABIP. Yet it’s more the excellent eye he shows at the plate along with his power that will excite teams. His slugging jumped up this season and his walk to strikeout rate was better than two to one. He is going to stick at first, but with his switch hitting, power stroke, and eye at the plate he could move quickly for a team.
23. Luis Ortiz, RHP, HS, PR 15
Ortiz has dropped a lot more on a lot of boards, the reason being he had some arm fatigue which caused him to be sidelined and he isn’t as exciting as some of the other arms. He has great secondary stuff for a high school player and maybe the best slider in the high school class. He doesn’t throw super hard, but seems as long as he is healthy to be a pretty solid bet to be at least a middle of the rotation pitcher.
24. AJ Reed, 1B/LHP, Kentucky, PR 28
Reed had a monster year for Kentucky and went from a guy where teams debated if his future was as a pitcher or a hitter to being a hitter. He led the nation in home runs and has massive power from the left side. Some places say his power is a 70 grade, though I think more 60 or 65, but either way it is extremely legit. On top of this he also led the SEC in walks and nearly doubled his walk total from a year ago. He is an emerging hitter who will be hard for a team in the 20-30 range to pass on.
25. Chase Vallot, C, HS, PR UR
Vallot is a guy I finally got around to seeing and he could be a guy I am underrating. He has an extremely quick bat which in turn generates massive power from the right side. In a class that lacks catching and right handed power, Vallot stands out. His arm is above average, but defensively he is likely to be average at best, yet with his bat he still has a ceiling of a top five player for his position. Another big bonus is that he is extremely young for his class. Even as I write this I want to move Vallot up more.
26. Monte Harrison, OF, HS, PR 39
I had not seen a lot of Harrison before my last board and now I see why people are high on him. He is a major upside gamble. It can work out great, I mean, look at Matt Kemp - or you end up with Bubba Starling or Courtney Hawkins. He doesn’t scare me as much as Hawkins, but Harrison does have some concerns. He is a mega athlete who is a four star football recruit. Here is one of the bigger boom or bust guys in this class.
27. Alex Blandino, 2B/3B, Stanford, PR UR
I am not sure what I was thinking leaving off Blandino the first time around. I feel like I really have been over thinking on Blandino. His numbers jumped this year and the best part is that his BABIP didn’t have an equally as high jump. His power jump is intriguing because Stanford is notorious for messing with swings and end up stopping power development. A lot of what I said about Chavis goes here in terms of positional value and power projection, and as a bonus he would provide right-handed power from up the middle.
28. Nick Howard, RHP, Virginia, PR UR
I never thought Howard would be the first guy from Virginia on my board. He was a two-way player at Virginia who has been mostly a pen arm as a pitcher. This year he is hitting 98 and already flashes a plus breaking pitch. I might be overrating him but I am intrigued by the chance that he could be converted to a starter. He has two plus pitches and has never fully concentrated on pitching. There is upside in his arm, which is why there has been talk that he might end up going as high as the teens.
29. Keaton McKinney, RHP, HS, PR UR
Keaton is a guy who I am much higher on than most as I am not sure he makes anyone else’s top 30. McKinney is huge at 6-feet-5 and already has a heck of a changeup. I get he doesn’t throw super hard, but with his size and being a cold weather arm he seems like a guy who is very likely to get a velocity jump. I am just intrigued by the combination of size and current secondary stuff. He needs a lot of coaching and might be a bit further away but I think he has big time upside.
30. Matt Imhof, LHP, Cal Poly, PR 25
Imhof has really burst onto the scene this year. He had a solid junior year then did well for Team USA last summer, yet he was not really considered a first round type until this year. He has been battling with Finnegan for league leader in strikeouts. He doesn’t throw as hard, but is huge at 6-feet-5 and sits in the mid to low 90’s. He is a big lefty with some projection and who has shown improvement this year.
31. Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia, PR 27
Fisher hit well when he came back from injury. I am intrigued still by the hit tool and power potential. Fisher is a good athlete and could be a complete player with some pop in the outfield, but I do worry about a guy who has hit less home runs in his career than Reed hit this year by a pretty significant number. His numbers are down a bit in general, but the tools will be enough to encourage some team to jump on him in the 30’s.
32. Braxton Davidson, 1B, HS, PR 30
Davidson might be the best pure hitter among any of the high school players. He has not had a great spring, but many places list his hit and power tools as a plus skill. He is not the best athlete so the question is can he play outfield or is he merely a first baseman, which hurts his value. His hit tool can play anywhere, but if he can be an outfielder he would have a lot more value. First basemen are the offensive guard of the MLB draft. Some places describe him as a top 10 pick in three years.
33. Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt, PR 7
I wasn’t huge on Beede, but I finally bought in last time and put him up where he was on most boards because it seemed like he was turning it around. Then the implosion happened. He has all of the tools but things haven’t worked out of late. I am more concerned with the reports of character issues after dealing with and seeing some pitchers who aren’t dedicated to the game. The red flags scare the crap out of me, but there is little doubt he has the talent to be much higher.
34. Derek Hill, OF, HS, PR UR
Hill is another guy I really hadn’t seen much of before the last board. He has great speed, excellent defense and a solid hit tool. He could be a future Gold Glove leadoff man, but at the same time that doesn’t personally get me interested early. If I am drafting a bat in the top 30, then I want a guy who has some future potential power production. Hill might end up the top defender from this class, but just not enough for me to rank him higher.
35. Mike Papi, OF, Virginia, PR 23
Papi is a highly productive player in college, who had somewhat of an in season slide. He has issues, I am not sure where he will play and he is not a great athlete. He just hits the ball and has an excellent eye. He doesn’t get cheated, and preforms every time out. He is the type of guy who just seems like he will get the dreaded intangible label to explain why a guy who his limited athleticism has been such a devastating college hitter.
36. Michael Gettys, OF, HS, PR 32
Here is a guy with plus bat speed and has all the tools to make teams sit in awe. The issue for everyone is his hit tool. He could be a superstar or he might never hit enough to get to Double-A. Some say worst case he is a fourth outfielder, but his hit tool looks like best case it would be a slightly below average tool.
37. Marcus Wilson, OF, HS, PR 29
Wilson is very similar to Derek Hill to me. He has plus bat speed and plus foot speed. The difference is he has a chance to develop power as well. I think his bat will be good enough to play all three outfield spots. He has a lot of growing to do yet as a player, but I am intrigued by his mix of skills and ability.
38. Mac Marshall, LHP, HS, PR 24
Another projectable pitcher and when you are left-handed playing for a top program and showing two above average pitches with a chance for a third, well, then you are ticketed to go in the first round. He was in the mid 90’s earlier this year but dropped back to low 90’s. I am still a fan. He is a big athletic lefty with some upside.
39. Jacob Gatewood, 3B, HS, PR 33
Gatewood is a lot like Gettys, but with more power and less speed and defense. Gatewood has had a rough spring, which has caused him to drop from a sure fire top five pick. He might have the best power in the entire class, but his story is very reminiscent of Joey Gallo a few years ago. Both had massive power, but both had major questions about their ability to hit. I am always very leery of high school kids who struggled to hit in high school because it is only going to get harder.
40. Michael Kopech, RHP, HS, PR 41
Kopech is widely considered the second best arm in Texas this year. He is a big righty who has seen his velocity creep up to the mid 90’s. His velocity increase along with his quick arm actions made me take note. I think those two things along with his size could signal even more velocity growth down the road. I also like his secondary pitches and think he could end up with three solid above average offerings. A nice upside pick for a team late in round one or early to mid round two. I feel like a year ago he would have been a sure top 30 pick.
41. Foster Griffin, LHP, HS, PR 34
Griffin is another big lefty in this class. He doesn’t throw super hard, but with his 6-feet-5 frame it seems likely that he will be able to add to his velocity. He has been slowly rising on boards this spring; the reason is all about his projection. It is the same story as quite a few guys I mentioned before as a good athlete and size equals projection. Griffin is a guy who is getting squeezed a bit because how deep the pitching is in this draft.
42. Jake Stinnett, RHP, Maryland, PR UR
Part of the value of Stinnett is tied to the fact he is a senior sign who will save a team some money by drafting him early and signing him. He is a legit pitching prospect with a heavy sinking fastball, which sawed off bats in the ACC, well at least figuratively did. He came out of nowhere to solidify himself as a day one selection this year.
43. Luke Weaver, RHP, Florida State, PR 13
Weaver was once a guy on the top 15 bubble and I refuse to give up on him in spite of his recent performance. His velocity is down and his pitching has become extremely inconsistent of late. There are size concerns as well and these three points could lead to a big drop for Weaver. I am still intrigued by his athleticism, mid 90’s arm and limited experience. I think a part of his drop is thanks to fatigue after a summer with Team USA and a long season with Florida State this year.
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jellis121@yahoo.com