Phillies Acquire Jesus Luzardo
By Nick Deeds MLBTR | December 22, 2024 at 8:40am CDT
The Phillies are acquiring left-hander Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins, according to a report from Robert Murray of Fansided. According to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, the Marlins will receive shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba and outfield prospect Emaarion Boyd in the deal. Matt Gelb of The Athletic adds that the Phillies are receiving minor league catcher Paul McIntosh in the deal alongside Luzardo. The teams have since announced the trade.
Luzardo, 27, is coming off something of a lost season but was among the most coveted starters available on the trade market as recently as last winter. The southpaw made just 12 starts in 2024 due to a lumbar stress reaction and struggled when he was healthy enough to take the mound with a 5.00 ERA (91 ERA+) in 66 2/3 innings of work.
While Luzardo maintained a solid 8% walk rate, his 21.2% strikeout rate was far below his career norms and his fastball velocity was more than a tick below where it was in 2023.
Even with those warts, however, it’s easy to see why Luzardo would be an attractive addition to the rotation for the Phillies. In 279 innings of work for the Marlins between 2022 and ’23, Luzardo dominated to the tune of a 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) with a 3.40 FIP. His 96.7 mph average fastball velocity was near the top of the scale for left-handed starting pitchers, and his 28.7% strikeout rate ranked eighth among starters with at least 250 innings of work in that time, sandwiched between Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan.
While there’s no guarantee Luzardo will be able to recapture that ace-level production he flashed prior to his injured 2024 season, the Phillies won’t need to rely on him for front-end production. Instead, Luzardo joins an incredibly deep Phillies rotation that already features Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez. Even a fully healthy and effective Luzardo would slot in as the #2 starter in that rotation between Wheeler and Nola, and even if the southpaw merely pitches to the peripherals (4.23 FIP, 4.33 SIERA) he posted during his injury-marred 2024 campaign he’d be a noticeable upgrade over Taijuan Walker, who pitched to an ugly 7.10 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work this past season.
The Phillies have been known to have interest in adding rotation help this winter, though that was generally expected to come in the form of a depth piece who could pitch out of the bullpen or give Walker competition for the fifth starter spot, not unlike the club’s signing of right-hander Spencer Turnbull last winter. The acquisition of a player with Luzardo’s talent and pedigree obviously goes well beyond that, however, and surely pushes Walker into a long relief role to open the season assuming the rest of the rotation is healthy.
Adding Luzardo also eases the club’s long-term need for rotation help, as he’s under team control for the next two seasons. With Suarez scheduled to hit free agency following the 2025 season, it’s possible that the addition of Luzardo allows the Phillies to rely on some combination of Walker and top prospect Andrew Painter to round out their 2026 rotation. That would push the need for an additional starter off to the 2026-27 offseason, at which point both Walker and Luzardo himself will be eligible for free agency.
[ Right up the Guard's Allley - They love players under team control which makes this deal even more painful ]
For now, though, Luzardo is a cost-controlled addition to the Phillies’ rotation who figures to raise the group’s already impressive ceiling considerably. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Luzardo for an arbitration salary of just $6MM in 2025, a figure that pushes the Phillies’ payroll to the $285MM range and their luxury tax payroll up to $304MM per RosterResource. Notably, that pushes them past the highest $301MM tax threshold for next season, at which point the club is taxed at a 110% rate on any overages beyond $301MM in addition to their highest pick in the 2026 draft being pushed back ten spots.
In terms of the actual financial cost, then, bringing Luzardo into the fold figures to cost the Phillies something closer to $10.5MM between the southpaw’s salary and the tax bill that comes with it. It’s an unprecedented level of spending for the Phillies, and it’s not clear how much more room the club will have to manuever as it seeks to make further upgrades. Perhaps that’s why president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested the club was unlikely to make further major additions earlier this week, with a swingman for the pitching staff and a bench piece for the lineup highlighted as the club’s remaining priorities. The addition of Luzardo likely eliminates the need for a swingman by pushing Walker into that role, of course.
For the Marlins, the prize in this deal is Caba. Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s #81 prospect in the game and #54 at Baseball America, Caba just celebrated his 19th birthday earlier this month and looked solid in complex league play this year with a .254/.427/.335 slash line. While he offered little power, he walked more than he struck out and stole 37 bases in 45 attempts across 225 plate appearances at the level. Caba was promoted to Single-A down the stretch and struggled badly with a .179/.304/.190 slash line in 115 trips to the plate, though he still recorded more walks (16) than strikeouts (15). While he’s roundly projected for below-average power by prospecting services, he’s regarded as having the potential to be a special defender at shortstop and his impressive knack for plate discipline should give him a solid offensive floor.
Boyd, meanwhile, was the Phillies’ 11th-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 21-year-old hit just .239/.317/.331 in 400 trips to the plate at the High-A level in 2024, though he’s stolen 83 bases over the past two seasons due to elite speed and is regarded as a potentially plus defender in center field due to his wheels. That was enough to make him the #23 prospect in the Phillies organization, according to Pipeline. That said, Boyd currently offers minimal power and has a below average hit tool, though his contact-heavy approach and potential to grow into a little more power as he physically matures is enough to keep him on the radar as a potential big league contributor.
Also in the deal is McIntosh, who joins Luzardo in heading from Miami to Philadelphia. The 26-year-old isn’t considered to be much of a prospect, having been selected by the Marlins in the 34th round of the 2018 draft. He slashed .246/.340/.385 in 117 games with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate in Pensacola this past season. For the Phillies, McIntosh should offer a solid glove-first option behind the plate to help guide the club’s young pitchers in the upper minors and perhaps provide some depth behind the club’s big league catching corps.
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