2025 ZiPS Projections: Cleveland Guardians
by Dan Szymborski
January 15, 2025
For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cleveland Guardians.
Batters
It’s weird doing the Twins and Guardians back to back, as ZiPS sees a lot of similarities between the two teams. It sees both clubs as having one mid-career future Hall of Famer, a really good outfielder, a bunch of slightly below-average players elsewhere in the lineup, a sneaky good rotation with one starter the system likes quite a bit more than the others, and an ultra-elite bullpen that should compete to be the best in baseball in 2025.
Overall, ZiPS sees the Guardians similarly to how Steamer does, though the shape of the projection is a bit different; ZiPS likes the hitting a good deal less than Steamer does, but is more optimistic than its cyber-rival when it comes to the pitching.
José Ramírez, my pick for the most underrated position player of this generation, will turn 33 before the end of the 2025 season, but he’s such a consistently awesome player that ZiPS sees him as having a long way to go before he’s not a huge plus on the team. That inevitable occurrence — time always wins, after all — is very unlikely to transpire this season. By the time he comes back to Earth, ZiPS has him passing 2,500 hits (2,524), 400 homers (404), and 70 WAR (70.9), which ought to be enough to get him into Cooperstown.
Steven Kwan is about as good a left fielder as one can possibly be without having a real power bat. He’s past the age where ZiPS thinks that’s likely to develop, which limits his ultimate ceiling, but he’s a damn good player, just about an All-Star every year, and he should continue to be one until his contact skills deteriorate or he suffers a serious leg injury.
Three players represent the largest ZiPS/Steamer disagreement. When it comes to Carlos Santana, I’m taking ZiPS’ side. Yes, Santana had his best season in years in 2024, and it’s a fun homecoming to see him back in Cleveland, but he was also a 94-wRC+ hitter over the previous four seasons and will be 39 years old for most of the 2025 campaign. Last year feels more like the “one last score” genre of heist film than a full reboot of his franchise. ZiPS also doesn’t anticipate the same slugging percentage for Tyler Freeman that Steamer does, with nearly a 40 point separation there; I’m kind of in the middle on that one, but probably closer to ZiPS. I think I’m with Steamer on Jhonkensy Noel, though — call it a gut feeling, but I think he’s displayed more potential power than the rather middling hard-hit numbers for him.
ZiPS projects a better year for Bo Naylor, but still sees Austin Hedges as a drag on the position overall.
What ZiPS likes is the team’s depth, which it tends to have as slightly superior to Steamer’s estimation. It sees real role player value from Daniel Schneemann, Angel Martínez, Johnathan Rodriguez, and C.J. Kayfus, with a higher OPS projected for all four players than Steamer has. It has, however, just about officially thrown in the towel on George Valera.
Pitchers
Now we’re at the part that ZiPS really likes. It’s higher on Tanner Bibee than just about everyone, and still burns a candle for Shane Bieber, though who knows what the Guardians will actually get from him in terms of innings in 2025. Luis L. Ortiz, Gavin Williams, and Ben Lively all project as solid mid-rotation starters; of the three, the computer probably likes Thrower McGavin more than anyone who isn’t one of Williams’ relatives. ZiPS is no longer that high on Triston McKenzie, but even his projection is pretty good in light of what a mess his last two years have been.
Further down the depth chart, Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo both project better as fill-ins than most team’s similar options, and even the really deep cuts on the album, Will Dion and Doug Nikhazy, get projections safely above replacement level. ZiPS has the Guardians with almost limitless better-than-replacement depth, though keep in mind that replacement level is a really lousy player.
The Twins have projected with the best bullpen in ZiPS so far, but the Guardians project just a couple of runs behind them on the year. Basically, take away a few innings from Ryan Webb, and it’s enough to put Cleveland into first. Emmanuel Clase is the best projected reliever in baseball, Cade Smith is ninth, and a third pitcher, Sam Hentges, ranks at the end of the top 20. And that’s even with ZiPS including Clase’s eight inning, eight run, three homer October, since ZiPS includes postseason stats. Maybe he’s too high on the depth chart to call a sleeper, but ZiPS thinks Franco Aleman might be the fourth-best reliever on the team. One name that is further down the depth chart that ZiPS is highly interested in is fastball/slider control guy Magnus Ellerts, a 22nd-rounder from 2022 who has gotten no attention at all.
Not surprisingly, ZiPS sees the Guardians as a solid rival for the Twins in 2025, with a similar outlook of 85-88 wins or so, depending on how things unfold over the next nine months.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-p ... guardians/
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