13052
by civ ollilavad
I know some writers have suggested that speed, which is Bourn's main offensive tool, tends to go early. So I thought I'd see how we can compare him with Kenny Lofton (stats of course being my way of evaluation)
Interesting similarities. Both Lofton and Bourn became regulars at age 25. At ages 25-29 Lofton's steals ranged from 20-54-60-66-75. Bourn's over those five years ranged from 41-42-52-61-61. Lofton stole 79% of his tries; Bourn a little over 80%.
At age 30 each was traded to the other league. Lofton's totals for the Braves: 27 steals, 20 caught. Bourn for the Indians: 23 steals, 12 caught.
Then what? Kenny never stole fewer than 2/3 of his tries thereafter. His steal total didn't reach 30 for four years, but at 36 he stole 30, at 39 he stole 32 and at age 40 he totaled 46! Which obviously doesn't tell us what will happen with Bourn, but Lofton's annual totals after 30 became much erratic and clearly were not at top of the league levels any more.