Cleveland Sports Forum

from BA:
Some prospects whose underlying data suggested that they had the recipes for success in the modern game.

There are three key elements to focus on for a hitting prospect.

1) Pitch recognition — Using chase rate and swing-rate-minus-chase-rate as a proxy for identifying if they are swinging at the pitches they can do the most damage on.

2) Contact rate

3) In-zone contact rate –Identifying their high-level ability to put the bat on the ball and the quality of their contact. We use 90th percentile exit velocity and barrel rate while also considering hard-hit rate, sweet spot rate and launch angles to their pull side, of their hardest hit balls and on average.

Additionally, xwOBA – which serves as a broad aggregate of all three of these elements – is considered.

Past performance is a great predictor of future outcomes. But we also consider what the underlying component elements suggest should have happened when conducting an overall analysis of a hitting prospect’s production to the extent of estimating their true talent level and — as much as possible — their future talent level.

Here are eleven more prospects with some interesting Statcast hitting data.

Johnathan Rodriguez, OF, Guardians — Rodriguez hasn’t ranked in the Guardians Top 30 since checking in at No. 29 in 2019. But RoboScout identifed him in July as someone who was putting up plus to double-plus exit velocities with slightly lower than average contact. After accruing 363 plate appearances in Double-A Akron with a 137 wRC+, the 23-year-old right fielder got the call to Columbus, where he can see if he can repeat the 109 mph 90th percentile exit velocity against Triple-A pitching. The Guardians’ outfield has put up some of the lowest power numbers as a collective over a full season in recent baseball history, so Rodriguez’s thunder in the bat might be a welcome sight for Cleveland. [this appears to have been written before he debuted in Columbus; his basic hitting stats were no worse in AAA; don't know about these other stats.

Johnathan Rodriguez is Rule 5 eligible

Objectively Both Benson and Jones have better walk rates consistently
Jones cosistency in WRC+ is impressive
Benson 153 WRC+ in 2022 is impressive but it was his 2nd year at AAA

I guess that I would roster Rodriguez over Gonzalez based the stats.



His Stats


Age Walks SO WRC+
2017 CLE R 17 31 119 0 13 11 0 17.6% 19.3% .083 .324 .250 .381 .333 .351 108
2018 CLE R 18 47 211 1 36 22 8 10.4% 20.9% .112 .378 .294 .370 .406 .370 122
2019 CLE A- 19 66 258 6 36 27 4 8.1% 26.0% .177 .319 .247 .318 .424 .348 123
2021 CLE A 21 59 240 5 29 33 3 6.7% 22.5% .136 .393 .314 .363 .450 .373 121
2021 CLE A+ 21 24 90 2 9 11 2 10.0% 24.4% .127 .273 .215 .311 .342 .304 85
2022 CLE A+ 22 79 321 21 48 59 2 6.9% 28.7% .281 .355 .292 .346 .573 .402 148
2022 CLE AA 22 28 113 5 10 15 0 4.4% 38.1% .243 .283 .206 .239 .449 .292 79
2023 CLE AA 23 88 363 18 42 55 3 9.4% 26.7% .224 .359 .289 .364 .512 .387 137
2023 CLE AAA 23 47 202 11 32 33 0 12.4% 32.7% .280 .388 .280 .376 .560 .404 131

Splits from Milb
2023
OPS
vs Left AKR 43 77 -- 28 6 1 4 14 5 1 13 -- -- .364 .405 .623 1.028
vs Right AKR 86 245 -- 65 8 1 14 41 29 1 84 -- -- .265 .351 .478 .829

For comparison

Will Benson

2016 CLE R 18 44 184 6 31 27 10 12.0% 32.6% .215 .293 .209 .321 .424 .348 112
2017 CLE A- 19 56 236 10 29 36 7 13.1% 33.9% .238 .339 .238 .347 .475 .386 147
2018 CLE A 20 123 506 22 54 58 12 16.2% 30.0% .190 .218 .180 .324 .370 .327 102
2019 CLE A 21 62 259 18 44 55 18 14.3% 30.1% .332 .325 .272 .371 .604 .433 172
2019 CLE A+ 21 61 255 4 29 23 9 12.2% 28.6% .115 .255 .189 .290 .304 .283 75
2021 CLE AA 23 80 332 14 63 42 14 18.1% 31.3% .248 .301 .221 .374 .469 .370 131
2021 CLE AAA 23 27 107 3 7 9 0 13.1% 39.3% .172 .250 .161 .271 .333 .270 61
2022 CLE AAA 24 89 401 17 75 45 16 18.7% 22.7% .244 .340 .278 .426 .522 .416 153

Nolan Jones


2016 CLE R 18 32 134 0 10 9 3 17.2% 36.6% .083 .459 .257 .388 .339 .358 118
2017 CLE A- 19 62 265 4 41 33 1 16.2% 22.6% .165 .417 .317 .430 .482 .424 171
2018 CLE A 20 90 389 16 46 49 2 16.2% 24.9% .186 .347 .279 .393 .464 .395 147
2018 CLE A+ 20 30 130 3 23 17 0 20.0% 26.2% .173 .418 .298 .438 .471 .421 162
2019 CLE A+ 21 77 324 7 48 41 5 20.1% 26.2% .139 .399 .286 .435 .425 .407 157
2019 CLE AA 21 49 211 8 33 22 2 14.7% 29.9% .213 .346 .253 .370 .466 .378 147
2021 CLE AAA 23 99 407 13 60 48 10 14.5% 30.0% .194 .327 .238 .356 .431 .351 113
2022 CLE AAA 24 55 248 9 44 43 4 12.5% 25.8% .187 .352 .276 .368 .463 .369 122

Oscar Gonzalez

2015 CLE R 17 70 282 4 25 38 1 6.7% 23.0% .121 .251 .203 .262 .324 .285 69
2016 CLE R 18 40 155 8 30 26 4 5.2% 36.8% .262 .444 .303 .342 .566 .407 148
2016 CLE A- 18 1 4 0 0 0 0 25.0% 25.0% .000 .000 .000 .250 .000 .184 12
2017 CLE A- 19 55 246 3 20 34 0 2.0% 24.8% .105 .366 .283 .301 .388 .323 105
2018 CLE A 20 114 480 13 52 52 5 2.5% 22.3% .143 .353 .292 .310 .435 .338 109
2019 CLE A+ 21 96 402 8 46 61 7 3.0% 16.4% .135 .367 .319 .342 .455 .365 129
2019 CLE AA 21 29 100 1 7 9 0 3.0% 17.0% .083 .215 .188 .210 .271 .218 37
2021 CLE AA 23 49 199 13 31 41 1 5.5% 18.1% .271 .353 .330 .367 .601 .412 158
2021 CLE AAA 23 72 305 18 39 42 0 3.6% 24.9% .234 .306 .269 .305 .503 .348 111
2022 CLE AA 24 5 17 0 3 1 0 11.8% 23.5% .067 .182 .133 .235 .200 .211 26
2022 CLE AAA 24 41 182 9 21 33 0 3.3% 14.3% .224 .286 .282 .308 .506 .345 106

they have room for both on the roster at this point.
Rodriguez did notably get worse in walks and strikeouts in AAA. He's certainly NOT a known commodity yet but I'm sure they don't want to lose him

Manzaro and DeLauter each with a pair of singles in 5 at bats on Tuesday.

Sabrowski 1 1/3 scoreless and hitless; Hanner 1 inning ditto
Cairo 0-4

Ryan Webb in Arizona:

Webb, Ryan PEJ CLE 2 2 2 2 3 5 9.00 I like the strikeouts; there are plenty of top hitters in this league

first Arizona League hot sheet:

9. Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians
Team: Peoria
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .333/.370/.524 (7-for-21), 5 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 11 RBIs, 2 BB, 2 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: DeLauter’s career has been waylaid twice by injuries—first in his draft year at James Madison and then again to begin this season. When he got on the field, though, he’s shown the world why Cleveland chose him in the first round. The big, strong lefthanded hitter has found the barrel time and time again in the first days of the AFL, and the result was the most RBIs (11) in the league through the first week. From a position player standpoint, he’s one of the best prospects in the entire Fall League.

Jim Ingraham, where is he working now? Free lancing as Guardian reporter for Baseball America among other

Guardians’ Will Dion Pitches His Way Into MLB Picture

The Guardians’ pitching factory never seems to have a bad year. [not so sure about the depth after the 3 star rookies]
There always seems to be another prospect in the pipeline waiting for a callup to Cleveland. This season, rookies Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan T. Allen all got the call and combined for nearly 350 innings.

Every season there seems to be another arm, or two, or three, waiting in the wings. A candidate for that role next year could be lefthander Will Dion.
The 23-year-old has quietly pitched his way into the pitching picture, following an impressive 2023 showing at High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron.

In a combined 116.2 innings, Dion recorded a 2.39 ERA with nearly 100 more strikeouts (129) than walks (35). He held opposing hitters to a .216 average.
He did so by commanding a four-pitch mix that includes a still-under-construction 91 mph fastball, augmented by a curveball, slider and changeup.

“He has worked really hard to lock in his delivery, with the hope of continuing to add velocity,” Guardians assistant general manager James Harris said.
“He can throw all of his pitches for strikes in any count and has missed bats at an impressive rate.”

The Guardians drafted Dion in the ninth round in 2021 out of McNeese State. He had little trouble adapting to professional ball. His ability to command and sequence his pitches has helped him log a 2.14 ERA over 257 pro innings.

Dion is one of nine minor league pitchers to throw at least 200 innings since 2021 while striking out at least 30% of batters and walking 10% or fewer.

Dion is not yet a finished product, but he’s getting there. “He is looking to get stronger in the offseason,” Harris said, “and he continues to work on his delivery, which should benefit his entire arsenal.”

2022 top draft pitcher, Justin Campbell, has yet to pitch a pro inning. the next pitcher chosen Parker Messick was only so so. 2023's Alex Clemmey didn't pitch in a game environment.
very abnormally for this team, only 3 of the top 16 prospects per MLB.com are pitchers, and the only one who pitched at least one inning last year is Joey Cantillo No. 11

Do the Belmonts come with Dion.

Seagull still rocking a ducktail !

well Joe Niekro and Phil Niekro were natives of Belmont County. But they're not pitching any longer.

Here's an uncommon word describing Cleveland players:

Prospect Report: Guardians Thumpers Headline AFL

PEORIA, Ariz.—Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter have a lot in common. Lefthanded sluggers in the Guardians system? Check. Seasons shortened by injuries in 2023? Check. Members of BA’s Top 100? Yep.

Oh, and they both hit massive home runs in Peoria’s tilt with Surprise in the first game of the second week of the Arizona Fall League.

Manzardo, who ranks No. 58 on the Top 100, struck first. In the sixth inning, the former Rays prospect, sent a pitch from Rangers righthander Justin Slaten deep to center field and off the batter’s eye that put the Javelinas ahead.

The no-doubter was the first home run of the AFL season for Manzardo, who is looking to make up for time lost to a shoulder injury suffered just before he left for Los Angeles to represent Tampa Bay in the Futures Game.

Against (Slaten), he’s got a pretty firm carry heater,” Manzardo said. “So I tried to push that down (in the zone) and obviously get an offspeed pitch.”

Two innings later, DeLauter, a big, physical center fielder whom the Guardians plucked out of James Madison in the first round of the 2022 draft, gave the Javelinas some insurance with a blast of his own.

The victim this time was Reds righthander Andrew Moore, whose 95 mph fastball was redirected on a line well over the right-field wall and onto to the grassy berm beyond the bullpen.

Injuries have limited DeLauter—who ranks No. 90 on the Top 100—both in college and as a pro. Foot injuries were the culprit in both cases, but now DeLauter is back, healthy and proving why the Guardians were convicted enough in 2022 to select him with the 16th overall pick.

The home run was DeLauter’s second of the AFL, and it came on a 3-0 pitch. Despite the situation, he knew he had an easy green light from Peoria manager Morgan Ensberg.

“Skipper down there, he nodded his head, so I knew. Granted, you’ve still got to get the pitch you want, and I got it over the plate,” DeLauter said. “You know, “The last thing I want there is to get sawed off on a 3-0 pitch or get beat, so I made sure I got the foot down and gave it the best swing I can.”

Just like Manzardo two innings prior, the result was a loud, long home run. The Guardians hope both blasts were a preview of big things to come.

Home runs on a 3-0 pitch .....rather see a HR on an 0-2 count.

and who is the guy throwing that 3-0 gimme? 8th inning pitcher may not be much of a prospect. But hey it still went a long way.