Cleveland Sports Forum

Saw Civ's post on Tolentino changing his profile and having less strike outs. Also, I have heard on MLB radio that the Guardians are a team that emphasizes contact with the new hitting coach. So I thought I would look up how (and if) that is filters into the minors

Out of 20 teams in the IL, Columbus has the 5th fewest strike outs, 3rd most walks, and 3rd best OPS

16
Columbus
INT 42 1411 239 346 77 6 55 219 191 349 35 6 .245 .346 .425 .771

Out of 12 teams in the Eastern League, Akron has 3rd fewest strike outs, 3rd most walks and 11th best OPS

11
Akron
EAS 39 1273 173 288 67 11 27 156 146 359 30 13 .226 .310 .360 .670

Out of 12 teams in the Midwest League, Lake County has the 4th lowest K's, 7th most walks and 10th best OPS

9
Lake County
MID 38 1149 142 244 49 8 29 128 143 352 26 8 .212 .308 .345 .653

Out of 12 teams in the Carolina League, Lynchburg has the least strike outs, the most walks and the second highest OPS
6
Lynchburg
CAR 38 1250 210 316 65 11 10 177 202 342 39 14 .253 .363 .346 .709

An optimist would say that Guardians approach is starting to show an impact at Lynchburg

I could not find the average ages of the various teams but I would say that Akron's key prospects are young for AA https://www.milb.com/akron/roster



https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minor-leagu ... d-context/


Below is a table of Minor League levels and their respective average ages. This is not meant to be an end-all be-all for the precise implications of age in MiLB, but rather to serve as a baseline to help give you some perspective while looking into the Minor League Leaderboard (further research will be done to look at the correlation of age and level with future Major League production).

Level Average Age
AAA 28.2
AA 23.8
A+ 22.4
A 21.2
A- 20.9
R 19.4

Thanks for the research and report Buck! Very interesting; you are definitely right that we have very young rosters. Baseball America reported on the youngest players at each level as of opening day and we had many of them. Akron certainly is full of regulars younger than 23.7.
The bottom 1/3 of Akron roster are non-prospect guys nearly all from our farm system and not old.
Columbus has very few of the retread minor league free agents who populate those rosters.

quick math I get Akron average age about 24.5. But the real prospects are younger:

Espino, Valera Tena Rocchio all are 22

BA notes on Sunday games:

CLE AAA #1 Tyler Freeman, SS 5 1 3 1 .256
CLE AA #3 Brayan Rocchio, SS 3 0 0 0 .224 BB (17), CS (4),
CLE AA #4 George Valera, SS 4 1 1 0 .256 SB (1),
CLE AA #11 Jose Tena, SS 4 2 2 0 .268 2B (9),
CLE AAA #13 Richard Palacios, 3 1 1 0 .264 3B (2), 2 BB (16),
CLE HiA #18 Gabriel Rodriguez, 3B 4 0 1 1 .267
CLE HiA #20 Jhonkensy Noel, 3B 3 0 1 0 .233 BB (12),
CLE HiA #22 Petey Halpin, OF 4 0 1 0 .191
CLE HiA #25 Aaron Bracho, 2B 4 0 0 0 .154
CLE MAJ #27 Steven Kwan, OF 3 0 1 0 .267
CLE LoA #33 Milan Tolentino, 2B 5 1 2 1 .379 HR (1), SB (8),
CLE LoA #37 Luis Durango, OF 5 1 2 0 .185 2B (3),
CLE LoA #38 Yordys Valdes, SS 6 0 1 1 .282
CLE AA #39 Will Brennan, OF 4 0 1 1 .303 2B (12),
CLE LoA #40 Jake Fox, SS 5 0 1 2 .246

CLE AAA #14 Peyton Battenfield, RHP 5.0 3 0 0 3 2 2.39
CLE AA #28 Xzavion Curry, RHP 4.2 4 4 4 2 1 4.03
CLE HiA #31 Lenny Torres, RHP 2.2 6 6 5 3 5 6.75 L (1-2)

some stuff taken from Guardians Prospective I find on the Cleveland.com gamecast chat

updated MLB Pipeline
Espino is their #11
Valera 43, Arias 69, Rocchio 78 Freeman 80

Tolentino Carolina League player of the week
Hunter Gaddis Eastern League pitcher of the week

on the Hot Prospect report:

16. George Valera, OF, Guardians
Team: Double-A Akron (Eastern)
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: .379/.419/.759 (11-for-29), 6 R, 2 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO, 1 SB.

The Scoop: Valera is one of those players who is sneaky young. He’s been a prominent name for years, so it’s easy to forget that as a 21-year-old, he’s younger than some of the hitters who will be taken in the first round of this year’s draft. For example, Valera was born a month after Texas Tech’s Jace Jung. Valera hasn’t wowed at Double-A Akron yet this year, but he’s controlling the strike zone and getting to some power. And he’s doing it while being quite young for the level. (JC)

Espino is one of everyone's favorites:

if the season ended today, who would you rank as top 5 pitching prospects in minor leagues? who are a few players knocking on the door to join this list?

Josh Norris: I don't even want to think about WHY the season might be ending today, but .... Grayson Rodriguez Daniel Espino Kyle Harrison Eury Perez Taj Bradley/DL Hall Those are the guys I'm riding with. My colleagues' opinions may vary.

Bo Naylor must have been in consideration for the list but more importantly he seems to have his offense back in gear in his return to AA. I especially like his much improved BB/K totals. Do you think he’ll be up to AAA this summer? Might he edge back into the top 100?


Josh Norris: Yes, I am definitely heartened by Naylor's improved strike-zone discipline and was willing to give him more of a pass than most because he was soooo young at the level last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get to Columbus at some point, though I'd bet the Guardians would like him to get a big of a taste of success as possible before moving him.

Tuesday Naylor and Valera stayed on their games;

Naylor with a pair of singles, now hitting 287 with an 897 OPS
Valera with his 4th homer of 2 weeks and 6th overall plus his 7th double plus 4 rbi hitting 261 834 OPS
1st baseman Will Brennan 4th homer and a single hitting 311 ops 886
Jose Tena 10th double and a single 273 696

Nate Handy rates pitching prospects for future fantasy value -- THE RATING ARE FROM BEFORE THE SEASON

His rating rules are

PPL&R’s 11 Rules of Evaluation



You’re doing this to better your game and sharing with a reader who is looking for an opinion, not THE opinion; that’s up to him/her.

You’re not trying to predict the future. You’re trying to figure out the present and how it might fit in the future.

The nature of pitching development and mountains of talent out there can make these ruminations sensitive and fragile, capable of changing with the smallest of progressions or regressions.
Successful MLB pitchers sit on a spectrum; one end is elite pitch execution/know-how, the other end has an exceptionally good pitch or two acting like a cheat code.

The real freaks are both, and they fall from the heavens. When you want them too much, they never show up. Weigh pitch execution, plans of attack, knowing how to use skills equally, if not more, than pitch analysis. Innings pitched are dynasty gold and some are better than none. Quality of innings matters, but this is hard enough to try and be too smart too early.

Don’t get cute. Value what you decide you want to value, even if it feels unnatural or no one else is doing it. You’re trying to break old bad habits that didn’t work for you, it should feel unnatural … that means you’re probably doing it right. If you’re doing it like everyone else, you aren’t gaining anything.
Trust your eyes, try not to form an opinion until you let the video tell you to. Use numbers to check your eyes if you want, and leave the numbers stuff to people smarter than you. Take advantage of your opponent who isn’t using their eyes. Know there are numbers telling you what your eyes can’t see.

Pay attention to minor league Strike% (MLB average is about 65%; good pitchers, typically 67%+). It isn’t telling you all you need to know, but these things don’t magically become major league acceptable. Plus, it’s a good eye check.

Your scope is limited, accept you will miss and miss out. Don’t strive to bat 1.000 and know everyone. Know who you want to know well and don’t miss on your type. Listen to what others say, whether you agree or not.

Don’t be afraid to cross a guy off your list. Time is limited. If you were wrong, you were wrong and try to figure out why. Work toward not feeling like you have to include a guy just because everyone else is.

It matters what chef is preparing your T-bone steak. The player’s organizational situation matters. And we aren’t assuming anyone is ready to face a major league lineup, just better or less prepared. There is a correlation between money spent on a player and the likelihood of major league innings probably worth thinking about. Conversely, dynasty owners have significantly more options to acquire talent and don’t need to invest in a player the same manner MLB clubs do.

Don’t seek out relief pitchers, but don’t ignore them either. Looking the part of a relief pitcher today can be a step in the developmental process toward starter in disguise. Getting to know who may be gaining relief pitcher value is a bonus. You aren’t putting time into relief pitcher evaluations and need all the help you can get. Depending on what you paid for a guy, turning into a relief pitcher is still a win.

If you suck, stop sucking. The process is never perfect and the game changes … that’s why you started this project in the first place; you sucked and the game changed.

Break the rules, just do it with good reason and if you’re doing it a lot, see rule #10.

#96

RHP – Tobias Myers – Guardians – Triple A Durham – 6′ – 23
Execution: For a pitcher lacking electric stuff, you’d think command would be better per results. A 67% strike rate more than plays, but when Myers loses feel, walks and hard contact come in bunches. When your game is deception with a couple of secondaries appearing more subtle than nasty, you have less margin for error. The fastball isn’t consistent and maybe more of a setup pitch, at least in some outings, and when it doesn’t have good life and/or is spotted well, the whole attack goes south quickly. Myers’ attack is a heavier north/south game than in-and-out, trying to get hitters off balance with a change of speed and eye level. The luxury of a pitch not being there any given outing and obtaining results isn’t there, but when it all plays, he can put up a stat line.
Development: This offseason, the Rays traded away another arm pre-Rule 5 Draft, gaining value from an asset they had no room for. Myers was this year’s odd man out, marking the second time he’s been traded, first sent by the Orioles as part of the Tim Beckham trade. All of this could mean absolutely nothing for our purposes, or it might. Splitting 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, Myers may have lost his 40-man tryout during a rocky Durham test when strikeouts were harder to come by and the fastball led to more long balls. This version walks a fine line and will be interesting to watch under the tutelage of the fastball wizards in Cleveland.
Stuff: Myers offers up a low-90s four-seam fastball with the ability to miss bats high. It’s imperative he keeps the pitch up as triple-A hitters produced plenty of hard contact when it wasn’t. The arsenal feels like one the Guardians could very well help improve, as I assume there is juicy tunneling action already there. A mid-80s slider and low-80s changeup aren’t necessarily your highlight reel-looking pitches, but can fool hitters plenty. The changeup, with arm-side run, whether intentional or not, did show the ability to get swing and miss up in the zone against lefties, like the gif below.
Fantasy Thoughts: There’s some appeal here, particularly after the way he finished the season, but the current version feels much too iffy for me to even feel good about a streaming situation. A blow-up outing just feels too close. Even during some of Myers’ best outings, there were home runs and walks taking us to the edge. Perhaps things start to feel safer with Cleveland, but until then, here we are.

#92 RHP – Aaron Davenport – Guardians – Low A Lynchburg – 6′ – 21
Execution: There were only twelve innings to view from his pro debut, but they flashed swing-and-miss stuff, not always well harnessed, which is worth noting. Davenport used a four-pitch mix to get a healthy serving of whiffs. Overall, the pitch execution can be plenty better, but it looked more miss here and there than prolonged struggles for feel.
Development: Heading into the draft with a big pitch, the fastball left the most questions. Cleveland quickly helped him add velocity, and it’s sent him into another level of upside. Davenport will be one of my priority B-side watches of 2022.
Stuff: Davenport’s fastball can touch 96 in games now and has some action to it. The 12-6 hammer curveball is the exceptional offering, while the changeup dies fast at the end. (Below). Watch closely and you’ll find another offering, something like a slutter missing bats.
Fantasy Thoughts: Davenport is my #1 FYPD late-round cheap flier target. What kind of signing bonus could have been in store had this fastball been here all along? I’m a fan of the guy, so I need to be careful, but I’m not hesitating to value him more than this first reason I get.
2021 Draft – Hawaii – 450K

#89 LHP – Joey Cantillo – Guardians – Double A Akron – 6’4″ – 22
Execution: Working his way back from an abdomen injury, Cantillo only pitched 13 innings over seven outings. He wasn’t nearly as crisp as some of his 2019 outings, but he was close, still flashing the ability to overwhelm hitters with his deceptive, well mixed, sum greater than the parts arsenal.
Development: Full disclosure; Cantillo was a favorite watch in 2019 and the trade to Cleveland, the land of doing the most with less than ideal fastballs, brought excitement to 2021’s campaign. Injury put the fun on pause until 2022. Cantillo might have to walk a fine line to get to MLB starter. The command will probably have to be elite, but he does hover around 70% strikes in the minors. Cantillo’s delivery felt a bit more violent now, perhaps playing into the little added velocity, but upon reviewing 2019 looks, it’s hard to definitively say.
Stuff: Cantillo is a modern-day soft-tossing lefty whose fastball now touches 93. Fastballs aren’t his big thing, but deception/tunneling is, as some of the ridiculous swings the curveball and changeup get indicate. Cantillo has an 11.89 K/9 during his pro career and although it may not be a wise bet to think MLB strikeout potential, completely ruling it out may not be wise either. He has shown the ability to badly fool hitters with all three pitches for strikeouts. There’s also been a knack for inducing strikeouts when up against it which could be a trait well suited for bullpen work (below).
Fantasy Thoughts: Cantillo should probably only be rostered in the largest of leagues right now, but he’s a guy I’m going to continue to watch. If it’s because I’m just a fan or really thinking about fantasy value is debatable.