Cleveland Sports Forum

Cavs could find themselves at No. 11 in the draft order if they keep winning about half the time.

Jason Lloyd: Rising value of draft picks signals changing landscape in NBA

By Jason Lloyd
Beacon Journal sports writer

Published: March 2, 2013 - 09:35 PM


The perfect illustration for how the new collective-bargaining agreement is changing the landscape of the NBA is located in the league’s official transaction log.

At the trade deadline two years ago, teams traded away a total of 11 first-round picks. By last season, the first under the newly negotiated CBA, only four first-round picks were dealt. And during this year’s recently completed trading season, only one first-round pick was traded.

The common denominator in all three seasons is the Cavaliers, who managed to obtain a first-round pick in each of the past three seasons. No other team has been so fortunate.

But the dramatic drop from 11 first-round picks traded two years ago to just one this year illustrates the impact of the escalating luxury taxes that will take effect next year. Players making less are suddenly worth more. Much more.

“Teams right now are scared of money,” one league executive said recently.

The days of general managers playing fast and loose with first-round picks are over. Guys like Gerald Wallace, who was dealt at the trade deadline in consecutive years, don’t hold the same value that they did just 12 months ago.

The Charlotte Bobcats acquired two of those 11 first-round picks during the trading season two years ago, swindling two out of the Portland Trail Blazers for Wallace, a good-but-not-great wing who has made one All-Star Game in 12 years. Then the Blazers recouped a first-round pick, No. 6 overall, when they dealt Wallace to the New Jersey Nets in a panic move at the trade deadline last season.

The Blazers plucked the likely Rookie of the Year with that selection in Damian Lillard. Wallace, meanwhile, is still owed $30 million over the next three seasons. That’s the type of contract that now would typically get him traded along with a first-round pick to any team willing to absorb that type of salary. Wallace’s saving grace is that he plays for the Brooklyn Nets and billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov, who scoffs at the looming tax damages coming his way.

Precious few owners around the NBA can behave that way. Beginning next season, the new luxury tax will punish teams more harshly for going over the cap and it annihilates habitual offenders. The new tax rules are what prompted Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban to go on Dallas radio recently and suggest the Los Angeles Lakers might need to release Kobe Bryant before next season using the league’s amnesty clause.

Of course, Cuban was just baiting the Lakers and their fans because that’s what he enjoys doing, and no one actually believes the Lakers would release Bryant. But he will earn $30 million next season, when the Lakers could be paying more than $90 million just in luxury taxes if Dwight Howard signs a max contract this summer.

Add in the $100 million in actual payroll and the Buss family, who just lost their patriarch when Jerry died last week, could be writing checks next season that total $200 million. Of course, the Lakers are believed to be pulling in about $150 million a season just on their television contract with Time Warner Cable, but no other team has that type of television deal, meaning most of the league’s owners — including Cuban — can’t afford that type of payroll and luxury tax.

That’s why Cuban began dismantling the Mavericks shortly after winning the championship two years ago. He once was one of the league’s carefree spenders, but Cuban has grown much thriftier in recent years. It’s part of the reason he traded with the Cavs to move down seven spots last summer, giving Tyler Zeller to Cleveland with the 17th pick in exchange for the 24th, 33rd and 34th picks. In Cuban’s eyes, the more rookie scale contracts, the better.

The fact the Cavs are now completing their third year of this rebuild, coupled with all of the draft picks they are owed in the coming years, places them at a distinct advantage. They already have six cornerstone pieces in place on rookie scale deals and will add two more in June’s draft.

In the Cavs’ dream scenario, the Lakers will slip into the playoffs as the eighth seed in the West, allowing the Cavs to swap the Lakers’ first-round pick with the Miami Heat’s pick, which the Cavs own as their first piece of compensation from the LeBron James sign and trade.

The Cavs only get the swap rights with the Lakers if they make the playoffs, and at this point, that could mean the difference in about 15 draft slots between where the Lakers and Heat are selecting.

The Cavs also have two second-round picks again, their own and the one belonging to the Orlando Magic. Given the rate at which the Magic are losing games these days, it’s realistic to believe that selection should be within the top three of the second round and could easily be the top pick of the second round (No. 31 overall).

The Cavs would like to duplicate the Zeller trade if they can find a team in the lower half of the lottery willing to drop down a few slots in exchange for two high second-round picks. A jump from No. 16 to No. 12 or even No. 11 is plausible if the right team (Phoenix Suns?) is in front of them and looking for more picks, meaning the Cavs could be in position to add two more lottery picks to a roster quickly growing in young talent.

This was part of the Cavs’ plan all along. They started hunting and gathering draft picks two years ago because they believed a.) the best chance at building a consistent winner in frigid Cleveland was through the draft and b.) looming changes to the CBA and a stiffer salary cap would make draft picks more valuable. They were right.

It’s why those polled around the league were shaking their head in amazement the Cavs were able to land what should be a future lottery pick from the Memphis Grizzlies last month for swallowing about $6 million in guaranteed salary. No other team in the league was capable of landing a No. 1 pick during this trade season.

The Cavs ideally would like to add one more future pick to their bounty, but that might not be possible. It’s time to start winning, beginning next season. History indicates if rebuilding teams don’t start winning by the fourth year, odds are it won’t happen at all.

But as the league enters into this strange new land of punitive tax fines that can quickly soar into the tens of millions, perhaps no team is better positioned with the salary cap than the Cavs.

While other teams walk a tricky line of trying to fling money overboard while holding onto first-round picks, the Cavs have positioned themselves to make a legitimate run at the playoffs next season — and they’re doing it with their core players entrenched on rookie contracts.

In this upside down salary cap world where less is more, the Cavs have more of less than anyone. It’s the new way of life in the NBA. It has to be.

Jason Lloyd can be reached at jlloyd@thebeaconjournal.com. Read the Cavs blog at http://www.ohio.com/cavs. Follow him on Twitter http://www.twitter.com/JasonLloydABJ. Follow ABJ sports on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/sports.abj.

About the Cavaliers...

When Dion Waiters was drafted, Byron Scott became a little carried away by comparing the sophomore from Syracuse to Joe Dumars and Dwyane Wade. Despite Waiters' recent rise as the Eastern Conference's Rookie of the Month for February -- averaging 15.8 points and shooting 51 percent -- that praise is excessive. Let's hold off on the comparisons to guys with championship rings and Hall of Fame credentials.

But Scott told me something else that is so true -- that Waiters is not a true shooting guard or point guard. "He's just a guard." He meant the 6-4 Waiters could play both spots, which is critical to the team for a variety of reasons.

1. Kyrie Irving is an All-Star point guard, but he's missed 29 of 125 NBA games. He played only 11 games at Duke. Irving drives to the basket so often and takes so many hard fouls, he probably will battle injuries most of his career.

2. Taking over at point guard in the last three games for Irving (out with a hyper-extended knee), Waiters averaged 21.7 points, 4.0 assists and shot 53 percent from the field. The Cavs beat Chicago and Toronto and lost to the L.A. Clippers.

3. Waiters is extremely comfortable leading the offense -- something he did at Syracuse. His presence means that General Manager Chris Grant doesn't have to shop for a quality backup point guard -- Waiters can fill the role.

4. Waiters scored 25 points at Chicago and 26 at Miami -- two of the league's premier defensive teams. He did it shooting 21-of-33 from the field. He's figuring out how to score and staying away from a flurry of off-balance shots.

5. The one area where Scott's comparisons to Dumars and Wade holds true right now is that they both "just played guard." With Miami, Wade can run the offense or be the shooting guard. Dumars did the same with the Pistons. Ditto for Waiters.

6. The Cavs can pair Waiters with a shooter such as Wayne Ellington, because Waiters doesn't make a ton of turnovers. Or they can put him with point guard Shaun Livingston, and Waiters can look to score.

7. While Waiters is adapting to playing with Irving, you can still see there are times when both guys would love to have the ball to trigger the offense. They have only played 42 games together, so that's not a major surprise.

8. The Cavs are 8-21 in the last two seasons in games missed by Irving. They are 3-6 this season when Irving is out, and Waiters played. They are 0-5 in games without Waiters and Irving.

Heat set example Kyrie Irving should follow
April, 15, 2013
APR 15
11:46
PM ET
By Brian Windhorst
ESPN.com
Archive
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CLEVELAND – On January 14, the Miami Heat had a record of 25-12 following a loss in Utah, which dropped them to 8-9 in road games.

Monday night, with six of their rotation players taking the night off, they came from behind to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 96-95, bringing their record to 65-16 and finishing their road schedule at 29-12. That’s 40 wins and four losses over three months.

To keep the Heat from winning another title, an opponent will have to beat them as many times in seven games as they’ve been beaten in 90 days.

The Heat certainly had the potential to assemble one of the greatest regular seasons in league history. They were the first team to have three players start the All-Star Game in 23 years, after all. But after coasting at times over the first 10 weeks of the season, the Heat’s surge has put them on a short list for one of the most dominating teams of all time.

“Sixty-five is a big number, I’ve never been part of a team (to win that many),” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “We’ve been part of championship teams and teams that have had great success in this league and have never been able to win this many games.”

Three starters (LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Mario Chalmers) were in suits and two more, Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem, were back in Miami. Shane Battier, one of the team’s top subs, was also at home. Yet the Heat beat a low-energy Cavs team to finish the season 15-1 on the second night of back-to-backs.

There have been 16 teams to win 65 games in NBA history, so it’s rare but not unheard of. The 15-1 in back-to-backs tied the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks for the best-ever result in that category.

“When you have potential excuses those sometimes can be distractions,” Spoelstra said. “This team has really bought into the notion of being a no-excuse team, regardless of the circumstances. The train goes on and it’s play no matter what happens.”

The last time the Heat lost on the second night was back in December, when they were blown out in Milwaukee a night after losing in Detroit -- basically during the heart of their “who gives a flip” mode that was a trademark of their early season.

They tested the Lakers’ record of 33 consecutive wins during the season by winning 27 straight. Had the Heat started the season with anything close to the ferocious will they closed it with, perhaps they might’ve challenged the Bulls’ immortal record of 72 wins. There were at least a handful of games the Heat kicked away or just didn’t really show up for early in the season.

But it’s hard to chastise the Heat for those November and December doldrums after watching their mastery since mid-January. Even with their late-season rest program, their reserve players have stepped forward and played with an intensity similar to what their front line did during the winning streak.

“You hope you’re building toughness and resolve through our habits,” Spoelstra said. “We’ve had explosive moments during the season but it’s all to try to get better.”

Their opponents on this night could take some lessons. Since the Heat’s visit last month, in which they lost a 27-point lead, the Cavs have gone into a tailspin and lost 15 of 17 games. Head coach Byron Scott is on the hot seat and could be dismissed by week’s end.

More disturbing is young All-Star Kyrie Irving, who has played with a late-season malaise that’s reminded everyone that despite his immense talent, he is still very much a 21-year-old. He admitted earlier this season he sometimes doesn’t give his all in games, and that seems to have been an issue lately as well.

Not only has his defense been especially shoddy during the Cavs’ recently struggles, but his leadership has come into question on several occasions. He scored a career-low four points Sunday in a hapless performance in Philadelphia. With three fouls in the first half in a one-sided game, Irving committed two fouls in the first 90 seconds of the third quarter, including a foul to stop a fast break to force his way out of the game with five fouls.

He later said he lost track of how many fouls he had.

On Monday, he was generally miserable until the game’s final minutes. He finally turned it on after 1-of-8 shooting to lead a Cavs comeback attempt before he was stripped on the final possession when he had a chance to win the game.

He then left the floor instead of participating with the rest of his teammates in a fan appreciation night event where players give away their shoes and jerseys. The Cavs later said he left the floor to get treatment on a sore heel, an issue that was previously unannounced.

Meanwhile, Norris Cole, who was taken 27 spots behind Irving in the 2011 draft, came one assist shy of a triple-double and made the game-clinching steal as a fill-in starter for Chalmers.

One of them is a world-class point guard who has the chance to become one of the best players in the league. The other is a player with limited talent who has fully adopted the Heat’s attitude of caring about every game no matter the circumstances.

“We just have to go out with a bang,” Irving said of the last game of the season, Wednesday in Charlotte. If he was being sarcastic, it didn’t come through.

Irving could learn a lot by studying the way the Heat have conducted themselves in their historic second half of the season.

Kyrie Irving ✔ @KyrieIrving

I want to personally apologize to all the Cavs fans for my actions yesterday, it was truly unfair to you guys, Im very appreciative for all


2:48 PM - 16 Apr 13

Kyrie Irving ✔ @KyrieIrving

Of you guys, your love and passion for the organization and city is what pushes me to be great,

2:51 PM - 16 Apr 13

Report: Cavs expected to fire Byron Scott

The Cavs are expected to fire Byron Scott at the end of the season, sources told Fox Sports Ohio.
Scott's future has been a topic of discussion since the beginning of April, and while he's dismissed concerns about his job security, it's hard to overlook the reports at this point since several are pointing toward the idea that he'll be shown the door. It wouldn't be surprising to see Scott shown the door.


Source: Fox Sports Ohio Apr 16 - 8:19 AM

The Cavs just completed one of the greatest tank jobs of all time.

Wonder if the Cavs will keep Scott. Rumors are he is done. I guess we'll find out soon.

http://cleveland.cbslocal.com/2013/04/1 ... t-on-deal/

Guess that answers that question.

Rusty 2: I don't think it was a tank job at all; unfortuantely I just think it was who this team has become. Too many lost big leads, too many key injuries; too little veteran leardership. Plus this year's draft is so weak there is no reason to gamble on the draft.

I just don't see LBJ returning after that winning streak they went on...maybe some day but not this coming cntract. The team needs to make a big move for a starting small forward or throw the dice at with Bynum. I like Granger, Deng or T.Young, with Deng my clear prefernce.

Chris Grant blew it the last 2 drafts. He's had 2 chances for centers in V and Drummond, but now there is little to hope for in this year's draft. TT and DW are good players but you can find that type in every FA period, but you cant find centers.

jayjay7 wrote:Rusty 2: I don't think it was a tank job at all; unfortuantely I just think it was who this team has become. Too many lost big leads, too many key injuries; too little veteran leardership. Plus this year's draft is so weak there is no reason to gamble on the draft.

I just don't see LBJ returning after that winning streak they went on...maybe some day but not this coming cntract. The team needs to make a big move for a starting small forward or throw the dice at with Bynum. I like Granger, Deng or T.Young, with Deng my clear prefernce.

Chris Grant blew it the last 2 drafts. He's had 2 chances for centers in V and Drummond, but now there is little to hope for in this year's draft. TT and DW are good players but you can find that type in every FA period, but you cant find centers.

Don't know which team you are watching but this was a complete tank job including paying Scott 4 million to not coach next year.

As far as the draft you have been wrong since day one but you are being as silly as Joe Z by repeating the same things over and over again even though you have been wrong. V blows..... all there is to that. As far as Drummond please show the posts where you were pushing him last year.

As far as centers name one team with a dominant center this year ? Not going to find it. Durant, LeBron, Chris Paul, Anthony, Denver team, Kobe, Tony Parker........ Nope, you are not going to find it.

You have been dead wrong about Chris Grant and Dan Gilbert. Jay Jay how about admitting you were not that sure about Irving and thought Williams might have been the better choice.

Cleveland fans are really starting to be a bunch of whiners and know it alls .

Why did the Cavs sign no free agents this year ? That's right because they were tanking.

You bitch about Chris Grant but he turned Ramon Sessions into a first round draft pick. Then improved his position this year by at least 10 spots by having a clause that allowed the Cavs to switch their draft pick from Miami with the Lakers. Are you kidding me ?

Grant is the same guy that traded Mo Williams for an unprotected first round pick that turned into Kyrie Irving. Are you kidding me ?

Grant is also the guy that gave up a 2nd round pick to the Magic that gave the first pick in the 2nd round this year.

Grant is also the guy that got Ellington, Speights, and a first round pick for what ? Freaking nothing ! You think he blew it ?

Tristan Thompson made you look like an ass this year. Instead of coming here and admitting you act like Joe Z.

Waiters will do it to you again next year.

Hey, I love to talk Cavs but you have to stop playing the role of silly, whining, Cleveland sports radio brain melt fan.

One last thing. No freaking way are the Cavs interested in Deng.

Hey one more thing for you. Noel and Len will both be better then V.

I was talking about this being a total tank season way back before AV even got hurt or right around that time.

Tanking was the right thing to do, for this one last season. Now tank mode is over and next year will be the year for the team to cut their teeth in the playoffs.

I'm not sure what the deal was with Scott other than it surely seems like he lost the team, and Gilbert is right about the lack of defense.

FTR I liked Drummond but I'm way happy with Dion and he"ll be dynamic with Irving when they sync up.

V sucks and TT will have the superior career.

We have one top pick, one more solid 1st round pick, first 2nd round pick and another high 2nd rounder. Watch Grant package some of these to get 2 solid players this draft.

Cavs in the playoffs in the coming season and they will sign a major FA the following year to push deeper in the playoffs.

Then as we're making the playoffs every year we'll also have shots at more top draft picks because of all the deals Grant has set up for future seasons.

The future is very bright for the Cavs.

I don't think the Cavs tanked intentionally. Remember Irving broke his finger and then AV went down and the blood clot really complicated things. With a healthy Irving and AV this was a 30+ win team and we'd be drafting about what 10th?

Grant has been a STUD! Cavs are now set for years to come. Even when we start winning we have lottery picks coming from other trades. Like it or not Cavs have to be better than most in the draft because our best players will always leave Cleveland when they can. Grant has us built for a decent run and Gilbert will certainly spend.

We need 2 impact front court players out of this draft and no way are we drafting 4 guys so trades will be coming just like last year. We will also sign Oden and take a flyer on him. I just hope we land in the top 3 and the Lakers pick looks like 18/19 or so. As of now with 2 months to go I'd draft the SF from Georgetown and trade 18/19 and Zeller for 13/14? and then trade our 2 second rounders for a late 1st and get a scorer off the bench like Thomas from OSU....

Sources: Cavs eye Phil Jackson
Updated: April 21, 2013, 9:56 PM ET
By Brian Windhorst and Marc Stein | ESPN.com
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As they did eight years ago when he was in retirement, the Cleveland Cavaliers have reached out to Phil Jackson about their head coach opening, sources told ESPN.com.

The Cavs, who fired coach Byron Scott last Thursday, have been in touch with Jackson to gauge his interest in returning to coaching and in their open position. Last week, ESPN reported Jackson is increasingly interested in a return to the NBA next season, preferably in a management capacity, after two years away from the game.


Jackson
Jackson interviewed with Cavs' owner Dan Gilbert in 2005 when Gilbert was looking for a coach. That year Gilbert ended up hiring Mike Brown and that process could play out again. Brown and the Cavs have mutual interest in a reunion and Cleveland television station WKYC reported Brown and Gilbert planned a meeting over the weekend.

Jackson is currently considering potential options, sources said. There's a belief in coaching circles that the Brooklyn Nets and possibly the Sacramento Kings -- if they relocate to Seattle -- will be teams that appeal to Jackson more than the Cavs.

The Nets reached out to Jackson before even firing coach Avery Johnson last fall and are expected to check his interest again following the season. The group attempting to purchase and relocate the Kings, led by investor Chris Hansen, is interested in bringing Jackson on board in an executive role if they win approval for the deal, sources said.

Jackson is believed to be looking for a similar situation as Pat Riley has with the Miami Heat to oversee personnel moves and mentor a head coach. To land and keep Riley, the Heat gave him a deal that included an ownership stake in the franchise.

In January, Jackson told SheridanHoops.com that he had "no intention of ever coaching again."

Sources: Cavs, Mike Brown all smiles
Updated: April 22, 2013, 3:55 PM ET
By Chris Broussard | ESPN The Magazine
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Sources: Cavs Reach Out To Phil Jackson

Brian Windhorst on the Cavaliers reaching out to Phil Jackson about their head coach vacancy.
Tags: Phil Jackson
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Phil Jackson Ready To Return?
The Sunday night dinner meeting between Cleveland Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert and Mike Brown went well, according to sources close to the situation.


Brown

Gilbert
The Cavaliers, who also reached out to Phil Jackson over the weekend, did not offer Brown the job, a source said.

The sides agreed to deliberate over the situation before speaking again later this week, perhaps as soon as Monday night or Tuesday.

Cavaliers general manager Chris Grant also attended the meeting, which was held in Detroit.

Brown is expected to be a highly sought-after coach this summer, when several coaching positions are expected to be open.

But sources say he views the Cavs' position as one of the top jobs available, or potentially available, because of All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving and the club's substantial amount of salary-cap space.

While the Cavs certainly have interest in Jackson, their contact with him is viewed more as due diligence. Jackson is more interested in taking a front-office position with an NBA team, according to sources, and Cleveland's interest in him is more so as a coach.