AL Central predictions 2026: Are the Guardians the team to beat in the division?

Updated: Feb. 13, 2026, 1:50 p.m.|Published: Feb. 12, 2026, 5:36 p.m.

By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Guardians’ pitchers and catchers went through their first official workout of spring training Thursday at their facility in Goodyear, Arizona.

Position players are scheduled to report Sunday — although many of them are already in camp — with the first full-squad workout scheduled for Tuesday.

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All of which means it’s time to predict how the five teams in the AL Central will do this season based on what they’ve done to improve or regress over the winter.

The teams will be ranked from fifth place to first place.

5. White Sox

Last year: 60-102, fifth place

Manager: Will Venable, second year.

PECOTA, FanGraphs predictions for 2026: Fifth at 69-93 and fifth at 67.5-94.5.

One-on-one: Guardians went 11-2 vs. White Sox last year.

The skinny: The White Sox have averaged 108 losses per season over the last three years, but they just may break that pattern this year. They’ve added Erick Fedde, Seranthony Dominguez and Anthony Kay to the pitching staff. They signed Japanese first baseman Munetaka Murakami to a two-year, $34 million deal and outfielder Austin Hays to a one-year, $6 million deal after trading Luis Robert Jr., another outfielder, and his $20 million salary to the Mets.

Fun fact: The White Sox won the MLB draft lottery at the winter meetings, gaining the first overall pick this year.

4. Twins

Last year: 70-92, fourth place.

Manager: Derek Shelton, first year.

PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: Third at 78.8-83.2 and third at 79.7-83.3.

One-on-one: Guardians went 9-4 vs. the Twins last year.

The skinny: It’s hard to get a handle on what the Twins are doing. At the deadline last year, they traded 10 players and it looked like they were headed for a big rebuild. However, Derek Falvey, team president and the man leading the rebuild, left the organization at the end of January. While Falvey was leaning into a rebuild, Tom Pohlad, the team’s control person, felt the team could contend in 2026. The Twins have added free agents in first baseman Josh Bell, catcher Victor Caratini and reliever Taylor Rogers. They also acquired lefty Anthony Banda from the Dodgers.

Fun fact: Shelton, former Cleveland hitting coach, returns to manage the Twins after five seasons managing the Pirates. Before taking the Pirates job, he was the Twins bench coach.

3. Royals

Last year: 82-80, third.

Manager: Matt Quatraro, fourth season.

PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: First at 85.5-76.5 and second at 81-81.

One-on-one: Guardians went 8-5 against the Royals last year.

The skinny: The Royals just might win the AL Central if their rotation of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic and Michael Wacha can avoid last year’s injuries and their offense improves. Their offensive production from the outfield was poor last year so they sent valuable lefty Angel Zerpa to the Brewers for outfielder Isaac Collins and right-hander Nick Means. Then they signed Lane Thomas, who spent two injury-filled years with the Guardians. If power-hitting Jac Caglianone can recover from his shaky big-league debut last year that would be an added boost. The Royals have depth in the pen, especially at the back end with closer Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg, which should ease the pain of losing Zerpa.

Fun fact: Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., starting his fifth season, has led the big leagues in hits for the last two years with 211 in 2024 and 184 in 2025.

2. Guardians

Last year: 88-74, first.

Manager: Stephen Vogt, third season.

PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: Fourth at 75.3-86.7 and fourth at 75.6-86.4.

One-on-one: Guardians went 36-16 vs. the AL Central last year.

The skinny: Preseason projections are not treating the defending AL Central champs kindly, mostly because they did so little this winter to help one of last year’s worst offenses in baseball. But have they really taken a 13-game tumble from 88 to 75 victories as PECOTA and FanGraphs project? The only counter the front office has is if untested players such as Chase DeLauter, George Valera, CJ Kayfus and others can lend a hand to Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan to awaken this offense. If not, it won’t matter how many arms the Guardians added to the bullpen this winter — and it was a lot — because they’re going to struggle. No doubt the rotation is strong, but a team has to score to win, even one that rallied from a 15-1/2 game deficit last year.

Fun fact: Last year the Guardians went 50-33 in games decided by two or fewer runs.

1. Tigers
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Last year: 87-75, second.

Manager: A.J. Hinch, sixth season.

PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: Second at 83.1-78.9 and first at 85.7-76.3

One-on-one: The Guardians went 8-5 against the Tigers last year.

The skinny: After a nine-year drought, the Tigers have gone to the postseason for the last two seasons. It feels like they’re determined to make it three straight based on what they did this offseason. Yes, Tarik Skubal won a historic $32 million arbitration contract for 2026, but that didn’t stop Detroit from signing lefty Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million deal and bringing home Justin Verlander on a one-year, $13 million deal. It gives Hinch a rotation of Skubal, the two-time Cy Young winner, Valdez, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize and Verlander. It also makes up for the loss of Reese Olson, who will miss the season with right shoulder surgery. In the bullpen they added closer Kenley Jansen, while second baseman Gleyber Torres decided to stay in the Motor City by accepting the qualifying offer.

Fun fact: The Guardians and Tigers played each other 16 times last season, including the three-game wild card series. Ten of the 16 games were decided by three or fewer runs.

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[ Should be a close finish for second place in this division. Will a second place finish be good enough for post season play. Don't think so. ]

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Why Failing to Extend Steven Kwan Would Be a Major Mistake for Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians would put themselves further down the totem poll of major league talent if they moved on from Steven Kwan without an answer in place.

Cade Cracas

2 hours ago

It's that time of year.

The Cleveland Guardians are just a few weeks away from the start of the 2026 MLB season, and with that, the organization released its promotional schedule.

While many teams around the league received praise for theirs, the Guardians instead were met with one major question: Where's Steven Kwan? He was let out of all promotional nights, not being showcased in memorabilia, bobble heads or jerseys.

The 28-year-old has been involved in trade rumors and contract extension discussions for a little over a year now, with no end to them in sight.

But if the front office isn't able to lock down the two-time All-Star and four-time Golden Glover, it would be a major mistake. They have the cap space, they have the room on the roster, it's all about making it happen now.

Following the promotional schedule release, Guardians sideline reporter Andre Knott spoke on the situation.

"Read between the lines... I think that's being careful of something happening," Knott said. "Go back last year, did you notice there were no Josh Naylor giveaways... You don't want to give a giveaway of someone you may not have."

While those comments from someone close to the organization would obviously signal that something is going to happen, Knott then calmed the storm a bit.

"I don't think they want to get rid of him, but also, you know, the Guards are one team that's not gonna overpay for him either," he said.

In 2025, Kwan slashed .272/.330/.374 for an OPS of .705, knocking 29 doubles and 11 home runs for a career-high 56 RBIs. He also put up some of the league's best fielding numbers, with 308 putouts, 13 assists and a 97.6% fielding mark.

The Issue Moving Forward

The decision to either trade Kwan or let him walk at the end of the season presents a few unique scenarios.

The first:

a trade. This would ultimately be the best option for Cleveland, especially if they are seriously not considering signing him long-term. With how high his value is, at least for his defensive efforts, the team could get a good chunk of prospects and a short-term replacement in return. This would obviously signal, though, that the Guardians believe they have enough talent in the minors to eventually replace his role.

The second:

letting him walk. This would be the worst possible option. If the Guardians played him for the next one to two campaigns, allowing him to continue thriving and carving out his role in left field, and then he just left, it would be one of the most disappointing decisions the organization has ever made. Kwan's an elite talent, and if you are just going to let him leave, you may as well get something back in return.

Currently, he's under control with the team through the 2027 campaign, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent in 2028. By that time, he will be entering his 30's.

The front office may be unwilling to extend him into that age range, mainly due to how many promising prospects they have right now. At the end of last year, they platooned Chase DeLauter, George Valera, Petey Halpin and CJ Kayfus, all players who could hypothetically play in the outfield moving forward. Kayfus is more of a first baseman than anything, but he did play 29 games in right field in 2025.

If Cleveland believes in them, and others still itching to make their debut, a Kwan extension might not be in the team's best interest.

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Alarming Details Revealed About Emmanuel Clase Rigging Pitches in MLB Playoffs

Clase is also accused of using coded language to discuss pitch-rigging.

Matthew Pisani

1 hour ago

More information regarding Emmanuel Clase and his pitch-rigging investigation has come to light. According to Zack Neisel and Mike Vorkunov, Clase rigged pitches back in the 2024 playoffs.

The pitch-rigging Clase allegedly underwent has to do with the first pitch of his appearance. On sportsbooks, the most common live, in-game bets people can make are pitch results and pitch speeds. If you look at the pitches thrown in that Gam 1 of the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers, it is clear which one was the alleged rigged pitch.

Like almost all of the alleged rigged pitches Clase threw, it was the very first one of the inning. In the top of the 9th inning in Game 1 of the ALDS, the first pitch Clase threw was 93 MPH and fell short of the plate by about 10-15 feet. That pitch looks oddly similar to all of the other ‘rigged pitches’ Clase threw in this investigation. A slow pitch that was nowhere near the zone.

After that first pitch, Clase returned to his normal form. He got a strikeout on that first batter. The next batter rolled one over to second base for the easy out. The final batter flared a fly ball to left field for the easy final out of the game.

Clase was dominant in that inning. Except for that first pitch, which was extremely ugly and extremely short of the plate. It falls in line with all the other videos out there of him allegedly rigging pitches. It is always the first pitch, and it is always well short of the plate.

Thankfully for the Guardians, the rigged pitch did not play a factor in the game, and the Guardians were able to maintain their 7-0 lead en route to a Game One victory.

Rigging pitches in a playoff game is a new level for players. Rigging pitches in a regular-season game, of which there are 162 of them, is much less significant than in a five-game ALDS series against a division rival. Every pitch counts in the postseason, and giving one away for free to the opposition is very risky business.

The fact that Clase was able to get away with a pitch like this for a year and a half amidst the investigation is impressive, but the investigation did what it was supposed to do, and that is find any and all instances where a rigged pitch may have occurred.


"THROW A ROCK AT THE FIRST ROOSTER IN TODAY'S FIGHT"






In addition to the postseason pitch-rigging, Meisel mentions that code phrases were used ahead of pitch-rigging being done by Clase. “Throw a rock at the first rooster in today’s fight” was a message Clase received before a May 2025 game against the Reds. He responded with, “Yes, of course, that’s an easy toss to that rooster,” following up saying he will throw it “low.”

Clase used words like rooster and chicken regularly to describe his pitch-rigging opportunities, according to new text messages revealed in Friday’s indictment.

This postseason pitch is now one of 15 times already identified as potential rigged pitches from 2023 to 2025, all in an effort to help sports gamblers win prop bets on him. Federal authorities also mention that there were at least three occasions in which Clase planned on rigging pitches, but never appeared in the game.

The co-conspirators made at least $450,000 with kickbacks to Clase, but Clase still denies all allegations and claims his innocence.

The first “rooster” came in 2023, when a bettor asked, “And the rooster the same?” Clase replied, “Yes, the same rooster.” That night, multiple bettors won about $33,000 wagering that Clase’s first pitch would be slower than 94.5 mph.

In September of 2023, Clase texted a bettor, “chicken number 3, after I kill the first 2, play the 3…And if I can’t kill it, don’t play it. I have to kill the first two.” Clase never did enter that game, therefore not being able to throw a fixed pitch to batter number three in that inning.

This is an investigation that gets messier and murkier by the day. More pitches are found, and the allegations continue to grow. One thing is clear: Clase will likely never step foot on an MLB mound again, and this allegation, whether it be true or false, will follow him his entire life.

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These articles are just getting terrible. The one mentions that the Guardians have cap space to sign Kwan. What the hell is cap space ?

One article says that the Guardians have picked up bad apples when they are desperate . Who said they are desperate ?