Cleveland Sports Forum

On Wednesday evening, the club announced the signings of catcher Joe Donovan from the University of Michigan and left-handed pitcher Jaime Arias from Fresno State University. Right-hander Cade Smith from the University of Hawaii agreed to terms with the Indians on Tuesday, but the club has not announced his deal.

Jaime Arias, LHP, Fresno State University
The southpaw worked mostly in relief during his three years with the Bulldogs, posting a 3.56 ERA in 55 games (14 starts). Before Arias’ junior season was cut short, he made four starts, pitching to a 3.75 ERA. He earned third-team Collegiate Baseball All-America honors and first-team All-Mountain West accolades after posting a 3.28 ERA with 12 saves in his sophomore campaign.
Arias, 21, was tabbed a freshman All-American by Collegiate Baseball Newspaper after owning a 3.69 ERA in 23 appearances in 2018. He ended his college career with 143 strikeouts and 29 walks in 139 innings.

Joe Donovan, C, University of Michigan
Though he wasn’t drafted this year, Donovan went through the Draft process three years ago, when he was selected in the 33rd round of the 2017 MLB Draft by the Cubs out of high school. The backstop decided to head to Michigan, where he started 80 games behind the plate in just over two seasons.

Donovan, 21, is said to have above-average arm strength and had thrown out 46 percent (six of 13) of attempted basestealers and picked off two runners before his junior season was halted because of the pandemic. He made just six starts during his freshman year but returned in his first full year behind the dish in 2019 hitting .234 with a .735 OPS, nine homers, 37 RBIs, 12 doubles and a .989 fielding percentage in 63 games (60 starts), earning an All-Big Ten third team selection.

Cade Smith, RHP, University of Hawaii
The Indians have not made Smith’s signing official. As with Donovan, the Draft process is not foreign to Smith, who was selected in the 16th round of the 2017 Draft by the Twins. The native of Vancouver, British Columbia, decided to attend Hawaii. There, he made 34 appearances (15 starts) over two-plus seasons.

The 6-foot-5, 230-pound righty recorded 22 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings with a 4.42 ERA in 2020. He made five appearances (two starts) and walked eight batters, holding opponents to a .261 average. Smith saw the most time during his sophomore campaign in 2019, when he went 2-2 with a 4.53 ERA in 16 appearances (seven starts) with 54 strikeouts, 26 walks and four homers in 59 2/3 frames.

Baseball America had 500 prospects rated pre draft. That's enough to fill about 15 rounds. Where do the new signings fall?

NO 307 JOE DONOVAN [that's about a 9th rounder]
Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 180 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Cubs '17 (33)
Age At Draft: 21.4

A well-rounded defensive catcher, scouts believe Donovan has the tools to be an asset behind the plate at the big league level, but questions about his offensive production have limited his overall upside in the draft. A 5-foot-11, 180-pound backstop, Donovan is a career .228/.316/.388 hitter with Michigan who has struck out around 23 percent over his three years with the Wolverines. Evaluators were surprised at the amount of swing and miss in Donovan’s game, especially after a strong summer in the Cape Cod League in 2018. That summer with Brewster, Donovan hit .309/.417/.324 in 26 games with more walks (14) than strikeouts (12). While his average and on-base percentage was encouraging, his lack of impact with a wood bat raises skepticism about how his power could translate. Some scouts think Donovan has enough power to run the ball out of the yard enough to be a threat—he homered nine times in 2019—but he managed just one extra-base hit in the Cape. Donovan’s value goes back to his defense at a premium position, with above-average arm strength and good receiving ability, but an 8-12 round talent might not find a place in 2020’s shortened draft.

I entered a writeup for CASE Smith. OOPS, we signed CADE Smith. So if you read it, you wasted your time Sorry.

Arias doesn't rate in the top 500.

players can sign for up to $20,000, and teams can sign an unlimited amount of undrafted free agents.


Hard to believe any high schoolers will sign for that kind of money. It's mostly going to be college kids who've used up their eligibility.

Wonder if there are any loopholes in that $20,000 max signing bonus. Lots of contracts with HS kids include 4 year college tuition guarantees.

54 games would make sense. 3 10team
divisions would be home/away
of 6games each. 63 would be 7 each.
Surely, these people can do simple
math.

we'll see how many 18 year old sign

BA has a database they're updating of all undrafted free agent signings. Maybe about 100 signed so far. 2 high school kids from Puerto Rico baseball academy. 2 high school kids from the US signed by the Rangers. ONE kid signed by the Phillies is the only HS player who made BA's top 500, he's no 434 prospect.

lthough the possibility of a traditional minor league season grows slimmer by the day, there is good reason to believe every team’s prospects will get a chance to gain a large number of reps at some point this summer.

That’s because the Arizona Fall League, which typically runs from mid September until late October, could fill the void with a new, expanded format, according to multiple MLB officials who have been apprised of the potential plans.

In normal years, the AFL features six teams each with prospects from five organizations. Under a plan being developed, each of the 30 organizations would send a roster of their own prospects to play at spring training sites in both Arizona and Florida. There has been a discussion of even having a second lower level team for each club as well, although nothing has been finalized.

Rockies and D-backs prospects, for example, would play their home games at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, Ariz., while Yankees prospects would play at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Fla.

The reason for this is simple: If there is no minor league season, there are going to be a whole lot of prospects who need to play games. Sending six or seven players to a traditional Fall League wouldn’t cut it, but an expanded format would allow a team to get as many of its highest-priority guys on the field for a long period.

Naturally, larger rosters would alleviate what has long been a bugaboo of the AFL: Diminished quality of pitching. By the end of a normal season, most pitchers will have reached their innings limits, leaving most of the Fall League roster slots to be populated by pitchers who missed significant time because of injuries or are new to their organization.

In 2020, however, everybody is fresh. Nobody has pitched in a game situation since the sport shut down on March 12, meaning pitchers still would have plenty of innings to make up. About the only top pitching prospects who wouldn’t have impetus to participate in a Fall League situation would be those who are on big league rosters.

That could set up a league that produces tantalizing pitching matchups like MacKenzie Gore vs. Logan Gilbert in Arizona, or Sixto Sanchez vs. Matt Manning in Florida. The AFL is traditionally loaded with top hitting talent and would be even more so under these theorized conditions.

Added talent, an altered, rivalry-friendly format and a fan base starved for minor league baseball will naturally add up to a greatly increased interest in the league or leagues. Attendance at AFL games is typically sparse anyway, but it could be even further reduced because of social-distancing regulations that would place a limit on the capacity of each stadium.

While it is unlikely many, or any, games would be on national TV, the amount of games streamed would likely rise in this scenario when compared to a normal AFL season.

The AFL is always a bounty for prospect-watchers. Every fall, teams send some of their best and brightest for six weeks of finishing school. In recent vintage, fans have gotten early looks at young stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr., Gleyber Torres, Pete Alonso and many more. About the only negative is that the league lasts for just a month and a half.

If there is no standard minor league season this year, that might change. Even as the days have dwindled away and hope for normalcy faded, players have been told to stay ready. If and when Major League Baseball and the Players Association reach an agreement on a big league season, the AFL (and a Florida equivalent) might not be far behind.

The league is in constant contact with the potential host stadiums (after a hiatus in 2019, Surprise and Scottsdale will be back in the mix in 2020) to inquire about how quickly they could be available, and some version of the Fall League could start within weeks of Opening Day in the big leagues.

A bigger league means more reps for the players, which would help approximate something close to what they would have experienced in a normal minor league season. That’s especially helpful for pitchers, because every inning they pitch this year would narrow the gulf between their 2020 total and what they will throw in 2021, when things, hopefully, will have returned to normal.

A longer league with bigger rosters will be more costly for teams, which have seen the revenue spigot shut off over what would have been the first two-plus months of a normal season. Typically, an AFL player gets $2,250 per month, plus a $750 per month stipend for housing. There are some alterations here and there—occasionally, a team will pay for their players’ housing rather than giving them the stipend—but the usual total adds up to about $6,000 per player during a normal AFL.

For a typical seven-man group, that comes to $84,000 per Fall League (though the season is six weeks, clubs will often pay players for an even two months). If that number is bumped to, say, 40 players over four months, the cost of fielding an AFL club comes to $960,000.

That’s obviously not a big number for a sport that makes billions of dollars each year, but teams have already shown a willingness to make decisions that save them as much as possible.

Before any type of AFL can begin, the league and the players must reach an agreement on a big league season (the AFL can happen without a big league season, but would likely be limited to players not already on 40-man rosters). Then, a decision must be made about the regular minor league season. Playing games in Arizona or Florida during the time where regular season Minor League Baseball games would normally be played could run into Professional Baseball Agreement issues as well.

Once those roadblocks are navigated, there could be a very quick path to a Fall League (or Fall Leagues) unlike any in the sport’s history.

Francisco Mejia, C, SD

That the Padres have a guy (Austin Hedges) at the top of the depth chart despite a career .201/.257/.360 slash really tells you what they think about Mejia's defense. Reportedly, Mejia was working on a new catching stance. If it works well and he can even be slightly below average defensively, Mejia could take over the starting role in short order.

Even if that doesn't happen, Mejia should still see plenty of time behind the plate and perhaps a few looks at DH. Mejia hit .265/.316/.438 with eight home runs in 244 plate appearances for the Padres last year. Not Johnny Bench numbers by any means, but he is just 24, so there should be improvement coming his way as he settles in.

Do the Padres have all the corner IF and OF spots filled, so no room for Mejia there? [How'd this get n Minor Matters?]

BA has updated its top 100 prospects to include some of the top players in the recent draft. Indians still have two players in the 100 and a whole bunch in the list of "anyone who any of us at BA listed in his personal top 150"

Nolan Jones NO 53
Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 60
2019 Average Exit Velo: 92

Skinny: Patience and power are the calling cards for Jones, who piles up walks and has the juice to drive balls out to all fields. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts and improve his defense to be able to stay at third base, but he has upside to be a force in the middle of a lineup.

Tyler Freeman NO 76
Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 40 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 55
2019 Average Exit Velo: 86

Skinny: Like many of the players in this range, Freeman had a very quietly excellent year. He showed hitting and on-base skills at both Class A levels, and his .306 average led all Indians’ full-season minor leaguers. He projects as an offensive-minded middle infielder.

The honorable mention group is listed alphabetically so can't say where among about 100 names these fit in:

Aaron Bracho
Daniel Espino
Tristan McKenzie
Bo Naylor
Brayan Rocchio
George Valera

most notable guys not on that list is Ethan Hankins or the kid drafted No 1 this year.

The majority of the last two months has been consumed by the negotiations between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players' Association. Consequently, that’s meant that the talks between MLB and Minor League Baseball about the structure of the sport in 2021 and beyond have taken a back seat. The two sides have not met since April 22, although there have been some messages exchanged since.

That delay has left many minor league operators very uncomfortable. Until the negotiations are resolved, there are no 2021 schedules for anyone in affiliated baseball (which, in many cases would already be in hand), and a significant group of teams is left unsure about its standing within affiliated ball.

That uncertainty is also passed to ticket-holders and sponsors, who might otherwise be persuaded to roll their 2020 dollar into the 2021 season. Multiple MiLB owners said they would not be surprised if some teams have to declare bankruptcy because they do not have the cash on hand to make full refunds on 2020 tickets and sponsorships.

In other years, teams might consider attempting to secure loans to meet those obligations, but the possibility of teams losing their affiliations makes that proposition more difficult.

With the 2020 MLB schedule set, MLB and MiLB officials are expected to resume talks soon. MLB has been asking its 30 teams to share their thoughts on where they would like to place their affiliates in 2021, when each club will have four full-season clubs and (at least) one complex-level team in the Gulf Coast or Arizona League.

When that information is in hand, MLB is expected to lay out to MiLB its vision for the league’s overall structure, including the locations of each of the 120 full-season clubs.

People with knowledge of discussions expect there to be many changes from the list of 42 teams on the chopping block that was made public last year. One new development is that some MLB teams have requested to affiliate with current independent league teams.

Sources confirmed that multiple independent league teams in addition to St. Paul and Sugar Land (which were mentioned in MLB’s initial proposal) have been approached by MLB teams as possible affiliates for 2021 and beyond, with the Atlantic League’s Somerset being the team most likely to be brought into affiliated ball.

“We are very proud of our over two decades as a founding member of the Atlantic League. The Somerset Patriots strive for excellence in everything that we do,” Somerset Patriots Chairman Emeritus Steve Kalafer said in a statement to Baseball America. “Our staff, partners, fans and community as a whole have enhanced our reputation that has been recognized throughout professional baseball. To hear our name even mentioned in any of these MLB discussions is certainly an honor.”

If multiple independent teams join affiliated ball, then the list of teams losing their affiliation could be even larger than the original estimate of 42.

In addition to all the other changes that could be coming, the numbers of leagues and divisions might also look markedly different.

There have been discussions of Triple-A splitting into three leagues, like it was before the American Association was absorbed into the International League and Pacific Coast League for the 1998 season. If Triple-A remained divided into two leagues, it is likely that the leagues would play some interleague series to reduce the length of travel.

At low Class A, it is expected that the current two leagues will split into four. The South Atlantic League would move to a six-team format, while a new Mid-Atlantic League would also field six teams. The Midwest League would drop to 12 teams and the Northwest League would move up from short-season ball and likely have six teams as well.

It is still possible that the South Atlantic League would remain as a 12-team league and split into North and South Divisions that rarely play each other. Or the SAL and Mid-Atlantic League could also have some interleague play, fulfilling the same purpose in a slightly different structure.

Of course, before any of this happens, the sides have to strike a deal. Right now, even that is in question. If no agreement is reached by Sept. 30, MLB could simply walk away from an expired agreement and form its own structure for 2021 and beyond, knowing that the teams they want to play in their redesigned minors would almost assuredly apply to join the newly developed development system.

That scenario would create total free agency for MiLB teams, meaning the current structures and classifications could be completely revamped and all 30 MLB teams would have to line up their affiliates to fit into a completely new system.

That carries some headaches for MLB teams, which would have to do significant initial work to get their new minor league alignments set up in a system that could start as a blank slate.

But there are much more significant incentives for current Triple-A and Double-A teams to avoid such a possibility. They have every incentive to accept almost any offer presented to them because they face dire risks if the PBA expires without a deal in place.

If the current PBA is allowed to lapse, all current rules and structures cease to exist. There are no guarantees that Triple-A teams would remain in Triple-A in an MLB-designed minor league system, and the same could be true in Double-A.

Many people involved in the minors have long said there is a significant tension between owners of teams in the upper minors (who will largely be only modestly affected by the biggest aspects of a potential deal) and owners of teams in the lower minors (who will be significantly affected if there is a deal that eliminates a significant number of teams).

Many questions still need to be answered, including what compensation for teams that are eliminated will look like. MLB has long viewed compensation as the responsibility of the minor leagues—they have not guaranteed player development contracts beyond 2020, so while they will not stand in the way of compensation for current MiLB owners, they also do not view it as its responsibility.

MLB has also been clear that cities whose teams lose their affiliation will not lose baseball entirely. That gap could be filled by summer college leagues, independent teams or other options, but the guarantee only extends to the cities. Team operators and owners have not been offered those same assurances.

Among minor league owners, there is not universal agreement on compensation either. A variety of funding mechanisms could be used to compensate teams that are left out in the reductions in affiliated ball (most conversations seem to revolve around using the ticket tax and/or expansion fees from future expansion), but with time ticking on a deal and the complicated nature such structures would require, there seems to be more pessimism than before that such a structure could be designed, adopted and approved in time for a new deal.

At this point, few MiLB teams have hopes of playing any games in 2020, although there have continued to be some attempts to stave off a completely canceled season. Triple-A teams have continued to offer plans for how they could play a much-shortened season in August and September alongside the return of MLB (although the announcement of taxi squads may render their efforts moot). The expectation is that the official word on the MiLB season will be announced in the next week to week and a half.

Civ,

BA has a new Top 30 just in case you want to post it

Do they? I'll go take a look. Thanks.