So let's see how bad Vince Velasquez is;

32 year old. Mostly a starting pitcher. Mostly with the Phillies. Had an ERA under 4 once; under 5 two more times.. Didn't play anywhere last year.
I guess he's another one of our classic rehab gambles.
He's another expert at the long ball, one every six innings over his career.

It's as good as its gonna get. I doubt there are any deals on the table that will improve the rotation. The free agents were pretty well picked clean. Looks like it is what it is.

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A while back I'd read that Cleveland was interested in Spencer Turnbull [or maybe someone just suggested that it made sense].
A typical Cleveland signing: a pitcher with modest history, coming off injury. Same biography as Velazquez

"On June 5, 2021, Turnbull was placed on the injured list with a right forearm strain, and was transferred to the 60-day injured list on July 7 after suffering a setback in his recovery. On July 20, it was announced that Turnbull would undergo Tommy John surgery, ending his season. In nine games with Detroit in 2021, he posted a 4–2 record and 2.88 ERA. Turnbull missed the entire 2022 season rehabilitating from surgery.
Turnbull returned to major leagues on April 2, 2023, allowing seven runs on eight hits and three walks in 2+1⁄3 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. After seven starts, in which he struggled to a 1–4 record and 7.26 ERA, Turnbull was optioned to Triple–A Toledo on May 7.[20] He was placed on the injured list with neck discomfort on May 12,[21] and transferred to the 60-day injured list on June 9. On August 23, Turnbull was activated from the injured list and optioned to Triple–A Toledo.[23] On November 17, 2023, the Tigers did not tender a contract to Turnbull making him a free agent.
"On February 14, 2024, Turnbull signed a one-year, two million dollar contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. He made his first appearance and start with the Phillies on April 2, where he threw five innings and allowed three hits, no earned runs, no walks, and seven strikeouts. In 17 games, Turnbull logged a 2.65 ERA with 58 strikeouts. He was placed on the injured list with a lat strain on June 27,[26] and was transferred to the 60–day injured list on August 17."

Ask Terry Pluto column:

Hey, Terry: I understand not paying Alex Cobb $15 million, but why not take a flyer on Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer? Do players like that not want to come to Cleveland?

– Tim Flenniken

Hey, Tim: It was the Tigers who gave the often-injured Cobb a $15 million deal. I never would have done anything like that for Cobb. Let’s look at your suggestions.
Verlander and Scherzer are headed to the Hall of Fame. But do they have anything left on the mound when it comes to 2025?



VERLANDER: He will turn 42 next month. The Giants signed him to a $15 million deal. He made 17 starts last season covering 90⅓ innings with a 5.48 ERA. He had neck and shoulder problems. I don’t like to hear about neck and shoulder problems for a pitcher in his 40s.

SCHERZER: The 40-year-old Scherzer signed for $15 million with Toronto. It seems $15 million is the going rate for aging once-good starters. He was coming off back surgery early in 2024. Then he had a nerve problem in his hand, shoulder fatigue and hamstring problems. He made only nine starts, a 3.95 ERA in 43 ⅓ innings.

The 40-year-old pitcher I wanted the Guards to sign is Charlie Morton. He went to the Orioles for – you guessed it – $15 million. Morton made 30 starts for Atlanta and had an 8-10 record and 4.19 ERA. He spent the last four seasons with Atlanta, throwing at least 160 innings each year. In his last four years, Morton had a 49-42 record and 4.09 ERA. He's a savvy veteran (I love the cliche’ because it’s true in this case). My guess is the Guards didn’t want to spend $15 million on any 40-something year old pitcher.

We are less than one week away from pitchers and catchers reporting to camp, which means it’s time to wrap up our offseason Around the Horn series.

We’ve dissected the infield, the outfield and the starting rotation. All that’s left is to take a deeper look at Major League Baseball’s reigning best bullpen.

Projected 'pen: Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Paul Sewald, Andrew Walters, Erik Sabrowski, Slade Cecconi

Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin and Sewald are all locks, assuming they stay healthy this spring. Clase will be back to try to repeat his historic season. Smith will be Cleveland’s ultimate weapon yet again, but with a year of experience under his belt. Gaddis can reclaim his eighth-inning role. Herrin will be another high-leverage arm. And Sewald will find his place while also providing much-needed leadership among the group.

The final three spots are up for grabs. Given the way that both Walters and Sabrowski came up in September at the most critical time of the Guardians’ season and thrived, it seems easy to guess that they will be the first to fill these vacancies. Walters has the ability to hit triple digits on the radar gun. Sabrowski gives Cleveland a left-handed option out of the 'pen who struck out 19 batters in 12 2/3 regular-season innings.

For now, we’ll say Cecconi will be the one to round out the bullpen. Although the plan is for the Guardians to stretch him out as a starter during Spring Training to have as many rotation options as possible, it still seems like they have at least five starting pitchers ahead of him in the pecking order. That means Cecconi could end up in the bullpen as a long reliever or used in shorter outings.






Other candidates: Franco Aleman, Nic Enright, Joey Cantillo, Kolby Allard

Aleman is an exciting arm. He impressed everyone in the organization during Spring Training last year, and he went on to own a 1.99 ERA in 24 appearances with Triple-A Columbus. The problem was that the righty suffered a right lat strain early in the season and missed roughly three months of the season. When he’s healthy, though, the Guardians know the potential Aleman has. Maybe he needs a little more time in Triple-A, considering he missed so much last year, but he will likely get his chance in the Majors at some point this year.

Enright is in a similar boat as Aleman. He, too, missed most of the season due to injury and will likely need to play catch up before he gets into the big league 'pen. But in his limited time on the rubber, he looked great, posting a 1.06 ERA with a whopping 31 strikeouts in 17 innings. It took until his 14th outing of the season for him to give up an earned run. If he can stay healthy, he will be another intriguing option for Cleveland.

Cantillo will likely remain in the starting pitching mix since the Guardians’ starting depth is so thin. If he doesn’t make the rotation, it may make more sense to move him to Triple-A to keep him stretched out as a starter instead of moving him into the bullpen. But he does have the ability to pitch in relief, if needed.

Allard was added to the organization on a Minor League deal on Monday and has experience as both a starter and reliever. Again, the Guardians need as many starters as possible, however he could move into the relief mix.






Question to answer: Will last year trickle into 2025?

This can mean two different things.

In one way, the Guardians will hope that last year carries right over to this season. Why wouldn’t they? This was the best bullpen in the Majors, and they’re returning their biggest assets. Gaddis has a year of experience working in relief. Smith is no longer a rookie. Trevor Stephan will be back in the mix at some point before the All-Star break, assuming his recovery stays on track. They can only hope this group will be just as dominant again in ’25.

However, there’s a negative way that ’24 could trickle into this season, too. Because the rotation was stretched so thin, the bullpen was overtaxed last year and basically everyone took on more innings than they ever had in the past. Will anyone experience any lingering effects of those efforts going into this season? Cleveland will have to hope not, because there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the rotation.






Who else is in the Pipeline?

• Unranked lefty Andrew Misiaszek (Triple-A Columbus)
• Unranked righty Mason Hickman (Triple-A Columbus)
• Unranked righty Bradley Hanner (Double-A Akron)






TRUCK DAY

Things looked a lot different this year.

It was difficult to get all the necessary equipment out of Progressive Field. The semi-truck had to be loaded and departed from Andrews Moving & Storage warehouse in Streetsboro, Ohio, rather than downtown Cleveland. This process was way more of a headache than it normally is because of the renovations that are ongoing at the ballpark.

Regardless, the first official sign of spring has happened. The Guardians’ truck is in route in Arizona.

Over the next few days, the truck will travel roughly 2,000 miles to Goodyear, Ariz., in order to prepare for pitchers and catchers to report to Spring Training next Tuesday.

Baseball season is just around the corner. As we wait for regular-season tickets to go on sale, be sure to quench your baseball thirst by purchasing your Cactus League game tickets here.

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AL Central champion Guardians projected to finish third in 2025 — says who?

Updated: Feb. 05, 2025, 5:19 p.m.|Published: Feb. 05, 2025, 5:00 p.m.

By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Last year the Guardians came out of nowhere to win the American League Central and make a 10-game run in the postseason. They’re apparently going to have to do the same thing this season based on Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA Projections for 2025.

PECOTA projections for MLB’s 2025 standings, updated through Wednesday, have the Guardians finishing third in the AL Central with a 80.5-81.5 record. The Twins are projected to win the Central at 86.9-75.1 followed by second-place Kansas City at 81.3-80.7.

The Tigers are projected to finish fourth at 79.3-82.7, while the White Sox will finish fifth at 61-101. Last season the White Sox finished with 121 losses, the most since MLB’s modern era began in 1901.

The Twins, projected to win the Central this year, finished fourth last year. This winter they’ve done little to improve their roster because ownership is trying to sell the franchise.

The AL Central sent three teams to the postseason last year in Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit. Those three teams, according to PECOTA, will be holding their exit meetings when the postseason begins this year.

Here are the 12 teams headed to the postseason according to PECOTA:

AL: Baltimore, New York, Twins, Texas, Houston and Seattle.
NL: Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Mets, Philadelphia and Arizona.

The Dodgers, who have spent the winter spending millions on every big-name free agent they can find, are projected to win 104 games this season. PECOTA predicts they have a 99.6% chance of making the postseason.

Guardians’ fans should not lose faith even before spring training opens on Feb. 11 in Goodyear, Arizona. Last year PECOTA projected them to win 83 games and finish third. They went 92-69 to win the Central for the second time in three years.

Still, it has been a unique offseason for the Guardians. They traded two of their best players in second baseman Andres Gimenez and first baseman Josh Naylor. Gimenez, sent to Toronto, was a salary dump. Naylor, entering his walk year, was traded to Arizona.

They re-signed free agents Shane Bieber and Austin Hedges. Bieber is still recovering from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow and it’s unknown when he’ll be able to pitch. Hedges will backup Bo Naylor at catcher.

After sending Gimenez to Toronto for infielder Spencer Horwitz, they sent Horwitz to the Pirates for right-hander Luis Ortiz and two minor league left-handers. Ortiz is expected to be in the starting rotation come opening day.

The Guardians, regarding free agents from outside the organization, signed first baseman Carlos Santana to replace Naylor. They recently added free agent right-hander Paul Sewald to help the bullpen.

In other moves, they traded relievers Eli Morgan to the Cubs, while shipping Nick Sandlin to Toronto along with Gimenez. In another salary dump, they traded center fielder Myles Straw —to the Blue Jays.

At the end of the season, they watched free agent pitchers Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb sign with the Cubs and Tigers, respectively.

What is PECOTA

PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is Baseball Prospectus method of trying to predict what next season’s standings will look like using each player’s past performance and a Monte Carlo simulation.

A Monte Carlo simulation, according to Investopedia, is a way to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to the intervention of random variables. It is a technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty.

According to MLB, PECOTA is perhaps best known for its use of comparable players. In predicting future performance, PECOTA uses historical comparisons of players with similar career paths.

While PECOTA is used primarily for projecting the performance of individual players, it can be applied to entire teams as well to project records. It uses predicted depth charts to establish the projected runs for and against each team, then derives projected win totals from that data.”

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I think that's a fair assessment.

Both KC and Detroit made some improvements while the Guard, basically, remained stagnant. It's the "little" things that Detroit and KC did that made those projections what they are.

We blew our chances to make significant improvements to the rotation this winter, But it is what it is.

We still have a lot of "ifs" to deal with.

We have a bullpen that's going to be tested again this year. Other than Bibee, I don't see anyone in the rotation that will go much more than 5 innings, if that.

The Guards had a bunch of events that worked out exceptionally well for them last year. Will the same hold true this year?

The youngsters certainly will be tested.

Success will depend on whether or not they're up to the task.

Having to depend on rookies and second year players to lead us to another division title and the playoffs is a big ask!


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Guardians spring guide: 30 notes for 30 hitters, from Brito to Kwan to José Ramírez

By Zack Meisel

As you monitor the action this spring, here’s a handy guide with insight on every hitter with a locker in the big-league clubhouse at the Cleveland Guardians’ complex in Goodyear, Ariz.

Jake Anchia, C

Yes, you’re in the right place. The first name on this alphabetically ordered list might be unfamiliar to you because Anchia signed a minor-league deal to provide some catching depth. He has spent much of the last four seasons at Double-A Arkansas, so if you ever need a Little Rock restaurant recommendation, he’s your guy. The veteran should offer assistance to up-and-comers Cooper Ingle and Kody Huff.

Gabriel Arias, IF

Arias has mastered the months of November through March. Now, about April through October…

A lack of improvement on this front is troublesome:

2023: 8.1 percent walk rate, 32.8 percent strikeout rate
2024: 3.7 percent walk rate, 32.9 percent strikeout rate

He returned to Triple A in the second half to work on his approach. He thrived in winter ball. A customarily strong spring could land him another chance, with the second base gig open. But this could be his last chance to stick.

Will Brennan, OF

Through two seasons, Brennan has proven capable against righties (.284/.326/.401 slash line) and unplayable against lefties (.192/.205/.248 clip). Even against righties, though, it’s mostly singles and some doubles, with limited walks. He’ll likely begin the season in a timeshare in right field, but Chase DeLauter is lurking.

Juan Brito, IF

The Guardians dealt former top prospect Nolan Jones for him, even though Jones was a potential solution to their longstanding outfield woes. There’s a lot to like about Brito’s hitting profile. He totaled 21 homers, 40 doubles and 88 walks at Triple A last season as a 22-year-old. He’s a switch hitter. Those ingredients should help him in the second base competition.

Chase DeLauter, OF

There are questions about his swing, about whether he can handle lefties and, most of all, about whether he can stay on the field. In two-plus years in the organization, he has totaled 96 games. But at every stop, he has mashed (.904 OPS). And the Guardians sorely need that sort of stick in the outfield. When healthy, he’ll have a chance to find a home in Stephen Vogt’s lineup.

Tyler Freeman, UT

Freeman made an admirable shift to center last season, which makes him an option all over the diamond. The issue is, his bat hasn’t translated to the majors like so many thought it would when he was a consensus top 50 prospect. He owns a .223/.304/.329 slash line in 637 plate appearances as a big-leaguer, about a full season’s worth. There’s still an opportunity for him to seize at-bats in center or at second base, but for a guy approaching his 26th birthday, the clock is ticking.

Dayan Frías, IF

Stop me if you’ve heard this before – a versatile infielder seeking to stand out in a crowd of them. Frías, 22, had a rough season at Double-A Akron in 2024, but fared well in winter ball in his native Colombia, with 20 walks, 11 steals and an .831 OPS in 28 games.

David Fry, DH

Fry completed his journey from player-to-be-named-later to postseason hero, cementing his place in Cleveland playoff lore with a season-saving homer in the ALDS and a walk-off blast in the ALCS. He did it with a right elbow that was begging to be repaired. Tommy John surgery will prevent him from playing the field in 2025, though he could return to the batter’s box in May or June.

Petey Halpin, OF

Halpin spent a second season at Double A in 2024 and boosted his numbers a tick across the board. He’s a center fielder who can play all three outfield spots, and the Guardians added him to the 40-man roster over the winter.

Austin Hedges, C

Hedges owns a .507 OPS since 2019. He’s the first to acknowledge his offensive limitations. But the Guardians keep asking him back, and his teammates want his company. He’s the human form of a Four Loko, but he spreads his energy in a helpful manner in the clubhouse. The Guardians consider it a $4 million investment in a leader in the dugout, in pregame prep meetings and on the team plane after a rough road trip.

Kody Huff, C

Cleveland acquired Huff from the Rockies for Cal Quantrill a year ago in a swap of Stanford products. The 24-year-old hasn’t shown much pop, but he draws a bunch of walks. He’s part of the organization’s recent efforts to replenish its minor-league catching pool.

Cooper Ingle, C

He’s starting to garner attention in the world of top prospects, and The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him No. 67 overall. Ingle has strides to make defensively, but in his first full season of pro ball, he posted a .305/.419/.478 slash line, with more walks than strikeouts and enough pop to have Cleveland execs dreaming of a polished hitter at a position in which they’re usually lacking in offense.

Steven Kwan, LF

What does the finished product look like for Kwan, provided he stays healthy? Could he hit 20 homers or hit .300? Can he do both things and once again walk more than he strikes out and win a fourth consecutive Gold Glove? In three years, he has risen to the short list of most indispensable members of the roster.

Kyle Manzardo, 1B

After a midseason reset at Triple A, Manzardo recorded an .873 OPS for the Guardians. He didn’t look overmatched in October, either. If he can blossom in 2025, he’d add a much-needed threat in the top half of the lineup as someone who could produce 20-plus homers, 30-plus doubles and a healthy on-base percentage.

Angel Martínez, UT

Martínez is a wild card. He could factor into the competitions for second base and right field, or he could wind up in a utility role. He turned 23 in late January, so it wouldn’t be surprising if other, older players get their final chances to prove themselves before Martínez receives a lengthy look.

Bo Naylor, C

For the final six weeks of 2023, Naylor flourished at the plate (1.113 OPS). He seemed poised for a breakout season. Instead, while the Guardians raved about his defensive strides, he took a step back on offense. Naylor spent the winter working at the team’s Arizona complex with new hitting coach Grant Fink. With his brother traded to the Diamondbacks, it’s up to Bo to carry on the Naylor legacy in Cleveland.

Jhonkensy Noel, OF

Noel scripted one of the most memorable scenes in franchise history, but will he be remembered only for his momentous homer in the ALCS, or are there more chapters to write? To avoid following in the footsteps of Bobby Bradley and Oscar Gonzalez, he’ll need to prove he can make better swing decisions. If he can force pitchers to challenge him over the plate, there could be many more moonshots to the top of the Progressive Field bleachers.

Dom Nuñez, C

Nuñez joined the Guardians last year and even though he spent the season in Triple-A Columbus, he traveled with the club throughout the playoffs as an extra body to help prepare the pitchers. He has experience in parts of three big-league seasons with the Rockies.

Micah Pries, 1B

This is Pries’ third consecutive spring in major-league camp. A first baseman and corner outfielder, he has spent the last two seasons at Triple A. His grandfather, Don, played in Cleveland’s system in the 1940s and later scouted for the organization.
José Ramírez. (Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)

José Ramírez, 3B

He finished one homer shy of a 40/40 season and one homer and one double shy of only the second 40/40/40 season in MLB history (Alfonso Soriano, 2006). That earned him a sixth top-six finish in the MVP voting in the last eight years. His 39 homers tied his career high, suggesting he has plenty left in the tank even as he enters his age-32 season. He sits 82 homers behind Jim Thome for the franchise record.

Brayan Rocchio, SS

His regular season performance at the plate was uninspiring — a .206/.298/.316 slash line — but there’s something to be said for having a clean slate when the calendar flips to October. Rocchio thrived, and the Guardians could really (really) benefit from him carrying over that confidence to his sophomore season. As a switch hitter with good plate discipline and defense his manager deemed award-worthy, if Rocchio can add impact to his offensive profile, he could be one of the more valuable players on the team.

Johnathan Rodriguez, OF

Rodriguez made a cameo for the Guardians last summer, but he has a crowded path back to the majors. He’s been one of the best hitters in the farm system the last two years, but as a righty who feasts on lefties, his opportunities might hinge more on his competition — Noel, Fry and Carlos Santana — than his own performance.

Carlos Santana, 1B

Any 39-year-old will explain that bending down to tie a shoelace can result in a tweaked back. Can the soon-to-be 39-year-old Santana sidestep the pitfalls of aging? He’s been durable throughout his career, missing an average of only nine games per season since 2011. The former catcher/third baseman/World Series left fielder won his first Gold Glove last year at first base, and he produced a .749 OPS with 23 homers. He doesn’t walk at the ridiculous rates he used to, but the Guardians guaranteed him $12 million to supply offense in the middle of their order.

Daniel Schneemann, UT

One minute, you’re aiming to impress evaluators at spring training as a 27-year-old non-roster invitee. The next, you’re starting in right field in the ALCS against the Yankees. Coaches fawned over Schneemann last spring and he parlayed that into a big-league promotion. Now, he’s competing with a slew of other versatile players aiming to either nail down the second base gig or a utility spot.

Lane Thomas, OF

It’s a contract year for Thomas, so it would behoove him — and the Guardians — to submit a career season. He had a miserable stretch upon joining the club last summer, but then delivered several pivotal swings in the playoffs. Thomas hit 28 homers in 2023. He stole 32 bases last year. He’ll handle center field this season. Can he put all of those skills together and cash in?

Milan Tolentino, IF

Another versatile infielder with an invite to big-league camp, Tolentino posted a .241/.313/.370 slash line with 17 stolen bases at Double A last season. He was the organization’s fourth-round pick in the five-round 2020 draft.

Yordys Valdés, IF

A second-round pick in 2019, Valdés has long carried a reputation as a slick fielder. He’ll need a revelation at the plate, though, to reach the big leagues, as he owns a career minor-league slash line of .226/.294/.302.

George Valera, OF

Once a consensus top 100 prospect, a slew of injuries and lack of progress against left-handed pitching have stalled Valera’s development. And yet, he turned only 24 in November, and before he ruptured his right patellar tendon and was non-tendered and re-signed with Cleveland on a minor-league deal, he recorded a .789 OPS at Triple A last season. He needs to prove he can stay healthy, and even then, he might have to settle for a platoon role. But there’s a spot on a roster for a guy who can rake against righties.

Kahlil Watson, IF/OF

A first-round pick in 2021 and a former top 100 prospect, Watson has been working his way back into evaluators’ good graces since Cleveland acquired him in the Josh Bell trade in 2023. He has power (16 homers in 96 games last year), speed (15 stolen bases) and versatility (starts at second, short, third, left and center). This could be a pivotal year for him; he’s eligible to be selected in the next Rule 5 draft.

Will Wilson, IF

A first-round pick of the Angels in 2019, Wilson has a .696 OPS in five minor-league seasons. Six months after they drafted him, the Angels dealt Wilson and veteran infielder Zack Cozart to the Giants to unload Cozart’s salary. The Guardians plucked Wilson from the Giants in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft in December.

Guardians spring guide: 33 notes for 33 pitchers, from Bibee to Bieber to Williams

By Zack Meisel
Feb 5, 2025


As you monitor the action this spring, here’s a handy guide with insight on every pitcher with a locker in the big-league clubhouse at the Cleveland Guardians’ complex in Goodyear, Ariz.

Franco Aleman, RHP

Injuries may have prevented him from earning his first promotion to the big leagues last year. Following a midseason bump to Double-A Akron in 2023, he didn’t allow an earned run across 24 innings. Last year, he posted a 1.99 ERA and, for the second straight year, struck out nearly 14 batters per nine innings. He’ll compete for a bullpen job this spring and is a safe bet to debut in 2025.

Kolby Allard, LHP

The Guardians invited Allard to big-league camp, the latest team to try to crack the code to the former first-round pick. Now, he’s 27, and though it hasn’t translated in parts of seven major-league seasons with the Braves, Rangers and Phillies, the Guardians want to see if they can unlock his potential.

Logan Allen, LHP

There were some encouraging signs to take away from Allen’s rookie campaign in 2023. In 2024, everything went south. His Baseball Savant page is full of rich blues, like the water at sunset on Waikiki Beach. Those hues reflect rankings at the bottom of a variety of leaderboards — chase rate, hard-hit rate, strikeout rate, whiff rate, expected ERA, barrel rate. He’ll have to battle for his next extended look, and to do so, he’ll need to set himself up in counts to be able to leverage his changeup and sweeper, instead of the fastball that hitters feasted on in 2024.

Tanner Bibee, RHP

It’s easy to forget that 2024 was Bibee’s sophomore season. He emerged as the steady force atop Cleveland’s rotation, with a 3.47 ERA with 187 strikeouts. He even took the ball on short rest in the ALCS. Now, there’s no question: This is his staff. It’s no surprise his catcher has high hopes for him entering Year 3.

Austin Hedges: “That guy’s going to win a Cy Young (Award). If it’s not (in 2025), it’s coming.”

Shane Bieber, RHP

Brace yourself: This summer, you’ll hear a Guardians employee rave about how Bieber’s midseason return is akin to making a seismic acquisition ahead of the trade deadline. Of course, lofty expectations for any pitcher returning from elbow surgery are unfair. Bieber, who will turn 30 in May, will earn $10 million this year and then either exercise a $16 million player option for 2026 or take a $4 million buyout from the club.

Tanner Burns, RHP

The 36th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Burns spent last season in the bullpen at Triple-A Columbus. He averaged more than a strikeout per inning, but his walk rate and home-run rate spiked. The difference between his walk and strikeout rate has been trending in the wrong direction.

2021: 19.7%
2022: 12.1%
2023: 12.5%
2024: 7.5%

He’ll need to reverse course to earn a major-league opportunity.

Joey Cantillo, LHP

The Guardians threw him to the wolves last summer, with his first four starts coming against four of the top lineups in the sport, and three of those starts coming on the road. The results weren’t pretty. But battle scars make you tougher, or something like that. In four September starts, he posted a 2.25 ERA, limited hitters to a .524 OPS and recorded a 29-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. There’s a lot to be encouraged by, especially his secondary pitches, which befuddled batters.

Slade Cecconi, RHP

Taken three spots ahead of Burns in the 2020 draft, Cecconi, who was acquired in the Josh Naylor trade in December, is the latest project the Guardians’ pitching whisperers will try to mold into a capable big-leaguer. He split the last two seasons between the Arizona Diamondbacks and their Triple-A affiliate, working both in the rotation and the bullpen. The Guardians have already tweaked his delivery and plan to initially build him up as a starter. Said manager Stephen Vogt: “(He’s) a strong kid, throws hard and has really good stuff.”

Emmanuel Clase, RHP

He became the first reliever in 16 years to finish in the top three in the Cy Young voting. He allowed five earned runs all season, rarely found trouble, led the league in saves and ranked among the leaders in appearances (as he does every year). And yet, his nightmarish postseason looms over all of it, fair or not. It’s a new season, and Clase should be as trustworthy as any reliever in the sport, the anchor at the back end of a stocked bullpen. But, surely, he’s itching to fast forward to a chance at October redemption.

Will Dion, LHP

A ninth-round pick in 2021 out of McNeese State, Dion encountered his first bit of adversity on the mound in 2024 after breezing his way to Triple A. He had a 2.14 ERA from 2021-23, and then a 5.48 ERA in 116 2/3 innings at Columbus last year, with soaring hit, walk and home-run rates. He’ll turn 25 in April.

Nic Enright, RHP

It has been a whirlwind two years for Enright, who joined the Miami Marlins via the Rule 5 Draft in December 2022 and then learned a couple weeks later he had a rare form of Hodgkin lymphoma. He rehabbed with the Marlins, who sent him back to the Guardians, and just when it appeared he might be pitching his way toward the majors last year, he suffered a shoulder injury that sidelined him for four months. Still, the Guardians saw enough — 17 innings, nine hits and two runs allowed, five walks and 31 strikeouts — to add him to the 40-man roster in November, and he should finally break through to the majors in 2025.

Daniel Espino, RHP

Once upon a time, in a magical, faraway land, there was a first-round pick with a sound barrier-breaking fastball, devastating secondary pitches and a sky-high strikeout rate who seemed destined to captain Cleveland’s rotation for years. But three-plus years of injuries, including a pair of major shoulder surgeries, have derailed Espino’s development. The bright side: He turned 24 in January, so he’s still young, and the Guardians rave about his work ethic and dedication to his recovery.

Luis Frías, RHP

Frías has had a taste of the big leagues each of the last four years, though he probably prefers if you don’t look up how that went. He signed a minor-league deal in January after splitting last season with the Diamondbacks and Toronto Blue Jays. There are some elements here for Cleveland’s pitching wizards to explore. His fastball has some zip (95-97 mph) and he can get some chase on his slider and cutter. Now, about limiting walks and loud contact…

Hunter Gaddis, RHP

Gaddis made a transition to the bullpen look so seamless, it makes you wonder, “Why doesn’t every team take every scuffling starter and convert them into unflappable setup aces?” Gaddis deserves a ton of credit. He coughed up the lead in three straight games in late April. Aside from that funk — a result, the team believes, of tipping pitches — Gaddis allowed one run in 49 appearances. He finished the year with a 1.57 ERA and held opponents to a .219 on-base percentage. Can he make it look effortless for a second straight year? No pitcher made more appearances (86, including the playoffs) than Gaddis in 2024.

Bradley Hanner, RHP

Once a 21st-round pick by the Minnesota Twins, the Guardians snagged him in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 Draft in December 2022. He improved his walk and strikeout rate and, dramatically, his ERA. Now he has an invite to big-league camp and seems likely to begin the year at Triple A. He would become the first player from Patrick & Henry Community College to reach the majors.

Sam Hentges, LHP

The big lefty isn’t expected to pitch in 2025, following September shoulder surgery, which should allow him more time to ponder whether Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy should start at quarterback for his beloved Minnesota Vikings. Since becoming a full-time reliever in 2022, Hentges owns a 2.93 ERA, but injuries marred his 2024 season. The hope is he’ll be ready to return to the bullpen for the start of 2026.

Tim Herrin, LHP

With Hentges sidelined for much of 2024, Herrin stepped into his role as primary lefty reliever and thrived, with a 1.92 ERA and a .173 opponent batting average. He faced 290 batters (including the playoffs) and allowed two home runs. The Guardians will again lean heavily on the 6-foot-7 southpaw.

Mason Hickman, RHP

The Vanderbilt product has shifted into a relief role for the last two years, with mixed results. More than one-third of the hits he allowed at Triple A last season were home runs, which explains the 6.75 ERA at the level. Since Cleveland drafted him in the final round of the five-round draft in 2020, he’s had a knack for racking up strikeouts, but walks and homers have been an issue.

Zak Kent, RHP

The Guardians acquired Kent from the Texas Rangers at the end of spring training last year and he spent the season at Triple A. It was a struggle, as he walked 19 in 23 2/3 innings and logged a 7.23 ERA. Much of that action, however, came after he returned from an elbow strain. The product of the Virginia Military Institute made Keith Law’s Top 20 Rangers prospects list ahead of the 2022 season, thanks to “a wipeout slider” and a healthy strikeout rate.

Jack Leftwich, RHP

Two years ago, Law ranked Leftwich ninth on a loaded list of top Cleveland prospects. After a dazzling first year in pro ball, Law suggested Leftwich “looks like a clear starter, at least a No. 4 and trending up from there.” But Leftwich has stalled the last two years, spending both seasons at Double A and shifting to a relief role. It’s his second consecutive invite to big-league camp, but this isn’t an easy bullpen to break into without some leap in development.

Ben Lively, RHP

Lively’s signing didn’t capture anyone’s attention in December 2023. It was a league-minimum guarantee for a journeyman pitcher. Lively expected to bounce between the rotation and bullpen. Instead, he made 29 starts and was a steady force aside from a shaky August. Was it a breakout season for a 32-year-old, a mirage, or something in between? The metrics don’t paint the most encouraging picture, and Lively doesn’t get much swing-and-miss. There’s no arguing with his 2024 results, though: He allowed three runs or fewer in all but five starts, and the Guardians went 18-11 when he took the mound.
Triston McKenzie. (Nick Cammett / Getty Images)

Triston McKenzie, RHP

It’s March 2023. “Scream VI” is the top movie at the box office. (Writer’s note: There was a “Scream VI”?!) Triston McKenzie is a trendy Cy Young Award pick and he’s deep in conversations with the Guardians on a long-term contract extension. Fast forward two years. No, wait, rewind two years. Hurry. Do it. Quick, rewind! Too late. There’s no escaping these last two years for McKenzie. Shoulder and elbow injuries wiped out his 2023. He opted to rehab his elbow instead of surgically repairing it, and in 2024, even though his elbow felt fine, he pitched tentatively — and not-so-effectively. That’s all in the past, he and the team insist… or hope. Can he resurrect his career and pitch like he did when “Scream VI” was in production? (Writer’s note: That movie has a 77% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes?!)

Andrew Misiaszek, LHP

The lefty reliever, a former teammate of Aaron Civale at Northeastern, seemed positioned to reach the majors two years ago before injuries interrupted his ascent. In 2022, he totaled 90 strikeouts in 61 innings to go along with a 2.04 ERA, quite the emergence for a pitcher selected in the 32nd round (970th overall) in 2019. He returned from Tommy John surgery last summer and, now healthy and 27, he could be part of the backup plan for fellow lefties Herrin and Erik Sabrowski.

Parker Mushinski, LHP

Another lefty reliever, Mushinski signed a minor-league deal with the Guardians following three big-league seasons with the Astros. He tosses a lot of cutters and curveballs, with an occasional 92-mph fastball. When he’s going well, he’s limiting hard contact, inducing an array of ground balls and limiting walks.

Doug Nikhazy, LHP

For Nikhazy, a second-rounder in 2021, the story has been about command. In 2022 and 2023, he recorded a walk rate of 6.9 per nine innings and 6.4 per nine innings, respectively. He trimmed that rate to 3.9 per nine innings last year, which helped him post a 2.98 ERA and climb to Triple A. It also earned him a chance to pitch in front of the big-league evaluators at Progressive Field during a break between the end of the regular season and the ALDS. The Guardians added him to the 40-man roster and now he’s positioned to debut in 2025.

Luis Ortiz, RHP

After the Guardians traded for Ortiz in November, he spent his winter working at the team’s facilities in the Dominican Republic and Arizona to get acquainted with the new staff and build off of a breakout 2024 season. His fastball rated as one of the best in the league last year, per Statcast, though he throws his slider and sinker just as often. He logged a 3.22 ERA as a starter in 2024, with a .201/.267/.374 opponent slash line. He could wind up the club’s No. 2 starting pitcher to open the season.

Erik Sabrowski, LHP

Here’s a super-condensed recap of Sabrowski’s journey: Drafted by the San Diego Padres. Tommy John surgery. A lost season because of the pandemic. Another Tommy John surgery. A setback in his recovery. A flirtation with bailing on baseball until his agent threatened to beat him up. Selected by the Guardians in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 Draft. Pitching pivotal innings in the ALCS for the league’s best bullpen. Sabrowski will spend the spring battling for one of three open bullpen spots, and given his success last year, he figures to have an inside track to breaking camp with the club as the second lefty reliever.

Paul Sewald, RHP

From 2021-23, he was one of the league’s top relievers, with a 2.95 ERA and a .177 opponent batting average. He stumbled in 2024 with Arizona, in part because of injuries. The Guardians signed him to a $7 million deal to safeguard against potential regression for some of their young relievers who shouldered a massive load in 2024. Sewald and Vogt crossed paths in Seattle in 2023, and the Guardians are confident the veteran will elevate what was already the strength of the roster.

Cade Smith, RHP

Smith was the last player to make Cleveland’s Opening Day roster in 2024 and then became one of their most indispensable performers. He cleared traffic jams and overmatched hitters with what was rated as the league’s most lethal fastball. Smith was one of six relievers with 100-plus strikeouts in 2024, but the only one with a sub-2.00 ERA. He pitched in key situations all season, and he resembled Andrew Miller in the playoffs before he seemed to tire in Game 4 of the ALCS.

Trevor Stephan, RHP

Remember him? Cleveland snagged Stephan from the New York Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft. He spent a year learning the ropes, broke out as Clase’s setup man in 2022, signed a long-term extension, suffered through a rocky 2023 and then blew out his elbow. He’ll likely begin the regular season wrapping up his recovery from his March 2024 procedure but could be yet another intriguing relief option before long.

Andrew Walters, RHP

Fifteen months after the Guardians drafted Walters, they promoted him to the big leagues, and he didn’t surrender a hit until his ninth and final regular-season appearance in September. He didn’t allow an earned run until the postseason. He has the makeup of a closer or backend reliever, but on this team, with a loaded bullpen, he’s simply vying for an Opening Day roster spot.

Ryan Webb, LHP

The Guardians opted not to protect Webb from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft … and then he went unselected, so they tossed him an invite to big-league camp. Webb had a stellar 2024 season split between Akron and Columbus, with a 2.80 ERA, a healthy strikeout rate and, perhaps most important for a guy who relies on command more than stuff, an outstanding home run rate (seven allowed in 141 innings). The 25-year-old seems ticketed for Triple A, but could be an option at some point in 2025.

Gavin Williams, RHP

He’s a former first-round pick, a former top prospect, he’s built like a Manhattan high-rise, throws hard and has effective secondary stuff. Shouldn’t those ingredients add up to a frontline starter? That’s what the Guardians are hoping. Williams enjoyed a successful transition to the majors in 2023 but suffered through the injuries and inconsistencies common with a sophomore setback. Will a new year bring the Guardians a new horse for their rotation?

Jose Z if you cry wolf every year eventually you may be right. Not this year ! We need to get more old guys and spend money. Year after year after year. Almost as boring as your personal winter league folder ! Geez !

The key for the rotation this year is Williams; he should be an ace; he was making moves in the right direction in 23 but 24 was unimpressive.

Then again McKenzie could be a crucial piece too if he could get back to where his career was heading 3 seasons ago.

If one of them is steady we should have a decent rotation; if both are we have a very solid rotation. Just waiting to plug in Bieber as the 5th man of a quality collection.

Guardians Star Voted As The Best Third Baseman In MLB By Analysts

February 7, 2025

By Andres Chavez

Making and reading offseason rankings represents a good way to kill some time before the start of spring training.

It’s also a useful tool to become familiar with industry expectations about certain players and how they are seen around the league.

In the specific case of Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez, however, there isn’t much that analysts can say to change people’s minds at this point.

He has the reputation of a star, and the stats to back it up.

He isn’t always recognized the way he deserves, but his amazing 2024 has opened some eyes around the industry.

The folks at MLB Network Radio have been ranking the best players at each position for a few days now.

As you can probably imagine, there isn’t a single third baseman deserving of the top spot other than Ramirez.






Ramirez, is, officially, MLB Network Radio’s best third baseman heading into 2025.

Analysts and hosts voted, and the results speak for themselves.

Ramirez bested Rafael Devers of the Boston Red Sox in the vote.

Manny Machado, Austin Riley, and Matt Chapman completed the top five.

The Guardians enjoyed another stellar campaign from their star player.

Not only did Ramirez hit 39 home runs and stole 41 bases, but he was a run-producing machine: he scored 114 times and drove in 118 runs.

He also posted a beautiful .872 OPS.

A lot of players would love to produce 6.5-fWAR seasons after they turn 30 like Ramirez just did.

Ramirez, who took home the Silver Slugger Award this past season, was also chosen as a Gold Glove finalist even though he couldn’t win it.

He was excellent at everything he did on the field, and there are no holes in his game.

Guardians fans are lucky to have him on the team.

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Poll: Who’s Winning The Offseason In The AL Central?

By Nick Deeds MLBTR

February 7, 2025 at 5:34pm CDT

The calendar has flipped to February and the start of spring is just a matter of days away. While some notable free agents (including seven of MLBTR’s Top 50) remain unsigned, most clubs have already done the heavy lifting in terms of preparing their roster for the 2025 season. In the coming days, we’ll be taking a look around the league at which clubs have had the strongest offseason to this point. The Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers have decisively won the polls covering the National League’s three divisions, but things were much closer in the AL West with the Athletics squeaking past the Rangers by about 300 votes for the division’s best offseason. Will things be just as close in the AL Central?

Coming off a season where they sent three teams to the ALDS and had a fourth club narrowly miss the postseason, the AL Central enters 2025 in its strongest position in years in spite of the White Sox breaking the single-season record for losses last year. That strength comes with heightened expectations, however, and clubs like the Tigers and Royals that have been mired in lengthy rebuilds in recent years are looked at as genuine contenders entering the season for the first time in a decade or more. Meanwhile, the Guardians and Twins hope to keep their perpetual playoff contention going and the White Sox will look to show signs of life despite being mired in what could be a lengthy rebuild of their own following their disastrous 2024 season.

Which team has done the most to set themselves up for success this winter? Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Cleveland Guardians

It’s been a busy offseason in Cleveland with plenty of turnover on the roster. The club’s biggest free agent move was reuniting with longtime ace Shane Bieber on a two-year deal with an opt out after 2025, but they also reunited with longtime first baseman Carlos Santana for his third stint with the club and inked veteran reliever Paul Sewald to a one-year deal as well. Those three free agent moves have been supplemented by a number of notable trades. They shipped out the contracts of Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw to Toronto in separate deals and flipped first baseman Spencer Horwitz (acquired in the Gimenez deal) to the Pirates for Luis Ortiz to bolster the club’s rotation.

In addition to those roster upgrades, however, they’ve also made a handful of sell-side trades including a deal that sent first baseman Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks. The club also parted ways with right-hander Nick Sandlin as part of the Gimenez trade and shipped righty Eli Morgan to the Cubs in a separate deal. Overall, the Guardians managed to substantially upgrade their rotation after the unit struggled with depth in 2024 and cleared plenty of salary off their long-term books, but did so at the expense of an offense that loses two everyday players in Gimenez and Naylor as well as some of the club’s bullpen depth in Sandlin and Morgan.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals have followed up their breakout 2024 season by continuing to spend in free agency, and kicked off the winter’s free agent market by agreeing to a new three-year deal with veteran right-hander Michael Wacha. Wacha’s return to the rotation gave the club the starting depth they needed to trade right-hander Brady Singer to the Reds in order to acquire infielder Jonathan India and provide Bobby Witt Jr. with additional protection in the lineup.

Those early offseason moves were the most significant of the winter for Kansas City, though they’ve stayed busy by adding closer Carlos Estevez to their bullpen on a two-year deal and re-upping with swingman Michael Lorenzen to provide competition for youngsters Alec Marsh and Kris Bubic at the back of the rotation. It’s a strong group of offseason moves on paper, though it’s somewhat troubling that the Royals haven’t properly addressed an outfield group that was bottom-three in baseball by wRC+ last year.

Detroit Tigers

For much of the offseason, it appeared that the Tigers were largely standing pat as the club entered the holiday season with veteran starter Alex Cobb’s one-year deal as their only notable addition. Since then, however, they’ve added two more notable free agents who didn’t see their markets develop as much as expected. They’ve bolstered the lineup with Gleyber Torres on a one-year deal that kicked Colt Keith over to first base and Spencer Torkelson into a bench role, but most notable of all is the club’s reunion with Jack Flaherty on a two-year deal that includes an opt out after 2025.

After shipping Flaherty to Los Angeles last summer before catching fire down the stretch, plenty of fans have wondered what the Tigers’ run through the postseason last year might have looked like with Flaherty alongside Tarik Skubal at the front of the rotation. That question could now be answered in 2025, and with no significant subtractions from the club’s roster this winter it’s difficult to argue the Tigers haven’t improved headed into the coming season.

Minnesota Twins

It’s been a very quiet offseason in Minnesota. From the outset of the offseason, there’s been reports of the Twins’ payroll being more or less maxed out and the club needing to move salary in order to make notable additions. Those trades haven’t materialized to this point, despite rumors swirling around top players like Pablo Lopez as well as more ancillary pieces like Christian Vazquez and Chris Paddack.

That hasn’t completely stopped the Twins from making moves, however. In the past week, they’ve signed Harrison Bader to back up oft-injured star Byron Buxton in center field while adding southpaw Danny Coulombe to the bullpen as a replacement for Caleb Thielbar. They also managed to swing a trade for former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya with the Dodgers when he was squeezed off of the 40-man in Los Angeles, though Cartaya has yet to so much as make his debut in the big leagues to this point. Whether they can add a bat to the lineup who can help replace the production of Max Kepler and Carlos Santana, however, figures to depend on the club’s success at swinging a sell-side trade to clear salary.

Chicago White Sox

As a firmly rebuilding club, the goals of the White Sox offseason look quite different to the other clubs in the AL Central. With that being said, however, they’ve generally done quite well in achieving those goals. Their most notable move, of course, was shipping southpaw Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox in a Winter Meetings blockbuster reminiscent of the Chris Sale trade following the 2016 season. In exchange for Crochet’s services, Chicago landed a pair of top-100 prospects in catcher Kyle Teel and outfielder Braden Montgomery as well as infielder Chase Meidroth and right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez.

That excellent return for two years of Crochet aside, the club’s offseason has mostly been defined by adding shorter-term ancillary pieces who could potentially be flipped at the trade deadline in July. Matt Thaiss, Cam Booser, Mike Tauchman, Austin Slater, Bryse Wilson, Josh Rojas, and Martin Perez all fit this category to one degree or another, with the latter five names all being signed to inexpensive one-year deals that should make them easily affordable for even budget-conscious contending clubs this summer should any of them play well enough to justify a trade.

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Despite having the lowest cumulative payroll of any division in the majors, the AL Central has had a fairly busy offseason with every team having made at least a couple of noteworthy additions. The Guardians have continued their eternal balancing act of the present and future by improving the roster’s biggest weakness in 2024 while shedding significant salary, while the Royals and Tigers both made notable (if somewhat modest) additions to the rosters that catapulted them to surprise contention last year. The Twins have made a handful of minor moves as they hope their deep roster can rebound from the steps backward some key players took in 2025, while the White Sox jump-started their rebuild with a major trade and added a number of low-cost veterans with an eye towards more trades this summer.

Of the five NL Central clubs, which one has had the strongest offseason so far? Have your say in the poll below:

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Which AL Central team has had the best offseason so far?

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Vote

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Detroit Tigers 54.38% (1,272 votes)


Kansas City Royals 20.09% (470 votes)


Cleveland Guardians 10.18% (238 votes)


Chicago White Sox 9.66% (226 votes)


Minnesota Twins 5.69% (133 votes)


Minnesota Twins 5.69% (133 votes)

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Preseason predictions show no love for the Guardians in 2025: The week in baseball

Published: Feb. 08, 2025, 3:10 p.m.

By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Valentine’s Day is drawing near, but the Guardians have received no love from those who make preseason predictions for the 2025 baseball season.

FanGraphs on Friday predicted they’d finish fourth in the American League Central with a 77-85 record. They have the Twins winning the division at 83-79, followed by the Tigers at 82-80 and the Royals at 81-81.

The PECOTA projections, via Baseball Prospectus, were more optimistic, predicting a third-place finish at 80.5-81.5, behind the Twins and Royals. PECOTA gave manager Stephen Vogt’s team a 29% chance of making the postseason.

Headed into the 2024 season, FanGraphs predicted a second place finish for the Guards. PECOTA picked them third.

With spring training starting Tuesday for the Guardians, such dire forecasts seem to indicate that their impressive 2024 season was more fluke than fact. They won 92 games thanks to a blistering start, winning the division by six games over second-place Detroit and Kansas City.

Improbable, perhaps. If you watched it game by game, however, it’s not like anyone kept handing them wins. They lost their best pitcher, Shane Bieber, two starts into the season to a right elbow injury. It put the rotation in a corner for the rest of the season, but the team adapted.

The Guardians opened the season on a nine-game trip against Oakland, Seattle and Minnesota. They went 7-2 and never slowed.

They went 16-9 in April, 19-9 in May and 14-11 in June. They were 58-37 at the All-Star break with a 4 1/2 games lead. Critics can point to their 34-32 record after the break as a reason for future concern, but when the Guards had to put the division away, they went 15-10 in September.

The Guardians had a lot of helping hands in 2024.

After finishing last in the big leagues with 124 homers in 2023, they finished tied for 12th last year with 184. While the rotation creaked and groaned, the bullpen led by Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Cade Smith, went 42-12 with 53 saves and the best ERA in the big leagues at 2.57.

They went 16-9 in April, 19-9 in May and 14-11 in June. They were 58-37 at the All-Star break with a 4 1/2 games lead. Critics can point to their 34-32 record after the break as a reason for future concern, but when the Guards had to put the division away, they went 15-10 in September.

The Guardians had a lot of helping hands in 2024.

After finishing last in the big leagues with 124 homers in 2023, they finished tied for 12th last year with 184. While the rotation creaked and groaned, the bullpen led by Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Cade Smith, went 42-12 with 53 saves and the best ERA in the big leagues at 2.57.




Steven Kwan hit .352 (99 for 281) with 55 runs and a .920 OPS in the first half of last season for the Guardians.

Leadoff hitter Steven Kwan ignited the offense in the first half, hitting .352 (99 for 287) with 55 runs and a .920 OPS (onbase percentage + slugging percentage). Jose Ramirez had 23 homers, 77 RBI and 70 runs at the break.

In the second year of MLB’s balanced schedule, in which every team plays at least one series against every other team, the Guardians held their own. They went 44-46 against teams that finished the season with a winning record. They had winning records against the Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Mariners, Orioles and Tigers.

In the AL Central, they were 30-22. They lost the season series to the Royals, 5-8, but took 10 of 13 games from the Twins.

The first-place finish earned them a first-round bye in the postseason. They beat the Tigers in the ALDS in five games, but lost to the Yankees in the ALCS.

Leadoff hitter Steven Kwan ignited the offense in the first half, hitting .352 (99 for 287) with 55 runs and a .920 OPS (onbase percentage + slugging percentage). Jose Ramirez had 23 homers, 77 RBI and 70 runs at the break.

In the second year of MLB’s balanced schedule, in which every team plays at least one series against every other team, the Guardians held their own. They went 44-46 against teams that finished the season with a winning record. They had winning records against the Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Mariners, Orioles and Tigers.

In the AL Central, they were 30-22. They lost the season series to the Royals, 5-8, but took 10 of 13 games from the Twins.

The first-place finish earned them a first-round bye in the postseason. They beat the Tigers in the ALDS in five games, but lost to the Yankees in the ALCS.

Still, it was a season that inspired hope for the future. However, not everyone saw it that way.

It’s clear, FanGraphs and PECOTA weren’t fans of the Guardians’ offseason. The front office didn’t sit on its hands, but some of the moves were generated more by money than sharpening the roster.




The Guardians signed Carlos Santana to help fill the offensive void created by the trading Josh Naylor.

They traded Gold Glove second baseman Andres Gimenez and the nearly $100 million left on his contract to Toronto. They traded Josh Naylor, entering his walk year, to Arizona for unproven right-hander Slade Cecconi and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick.

Naylor’s 31 homers and 108 RBI, both career highs, are going to be missed. The Guardians signed free agent Carlos Santana to help fill the offensive void. Santana will replace Naylor at first base, but at 39 it’s questionable how much he’ll be able to help with the bat.

They tried to strengthen the rotation on two fronts. First, they re-signed Bieber, who may not be ready to pitch until sometime in July as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Then they sent Spencer Horwitz, acquired from the Blue Jays for Gimenez, to Pittsburgh for right-hander Luis Ortiz.

n another salary dump, they traded center fielder Myles Straw to Toronto, while signing free agent right-hander Paul Sewald to a one-year deal to protect a bullpen that was heavily taxed last season.

Payroll wise the Guardians enter spring training with an estimated $89 million committed to the 26-man roster. That includes Bieber, Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges and David Fry who are expected to open the season on the injured list.

They opened last season with an estimated $96 million payroll for the 26-man roster.

The curious thing about the PECOTA and FanGraph projections is their fondness for the Twins. They went 82-80 last year, but have been quiet this offseason. The Pohlad family, who have owned the team since 1984, are trying to sell it. That may have stopped the front office from adding to their $140 million payroll.

The Twins just signed free agent outfielder Harrison Bader and left-hander Danny Coulumbe to one-year deals, but that’s been their biggest offseason additions. If the Twins are indeed going to finish in front of the Guardians, Tigers and Royals — all three teams made the postseason last year — they’re going to need a return to health by Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa.

It’s always interesting to see how a team handles expectations after enjoying unexpected success the previous season.

The Guardians have been here before. In 2022 they were the surprise winners of the AL Central with the youngest team in baseball. The next year they fell to 86 losses.

They worked their way back to the top of the division last year. Now they are faced with the same kind of challenge. How to carry the success they enjoyed last year into this year no matter what the projections say.

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The Guardians

substantially upgraded their rotation

Ortiz and Ceccone = substantial upgrade? That's a rather optimistic viewpoint. We can only hope