Single-A Lynchburg Hillcats (4-1) vs. Carolina Mudcats (Brewers)

Catcher Robert Lopez was the top offensive performer during the Hillcats winning week. The former international free agent had two homers and six RBI, providing his third homer of the year in the Hillcats 11-5 loss on June 23, and then two hits and two RBI in a 5-1 win on June 24. The 19 year old is hitting .358/.424/.642 in the month of June so far, bringing his season line to .273/.318/.444 after hitting .174/.240/.217 in May.

OF Lexer Saduy had a hit in all three games he played in the week, including a homer in the June 23 loss. For the week he hit .300/.417/.700.

Parker Messick continued to pitch like he deserves a promotion to Lake County soon, tossing six shutout innings on June 20, allowing two hits and two walks while striking out five. The start lowered his season ERA to 3.02 and his WHIP to 1.09.

Austin Peterson also turned in another solid start in the Hillcats’ 5-1 win on June 24. He allowed run in 4 1/3 innings on three hits, five strikeouts and no walks. 2022 draft pick Tyresse Turner homered and drove in two runs in that win, his only standout performance of the week.

2022 draftee Adam Tulloch kept the string of strong starting pitching going to close the first half for the Hillcats by pitching six innings and allowed just a run on four hits, a walk and five strikeouts in Lynchburg’s 3-1 win on June 25. Fellow 2022 draftee Zach Jacobs came in for three innings behind Tulloch and tossed three shutout innings, allowing just two hits and struck out three as well.

2020 first rounder Carson Tucker is back to not playing again in Lynchburg, last appearing in action on June 15 after missing much of the early part of the season as well. OF Angel Zarate returned to Lynchburg this week after a somewhat lengthy hamstring injury.

Infielders Nate Furman, Maick Callado, Juan Benjamin were named Carolina League All-Stars, as well as outfielders Guy Lipscomb, Wuilfredo Antunez, and pitchers Parker Messick and Magnus Ellerts. Furman and Ellerts have since been promoted to High-A Lake County.

The Hillcats come home to start the second half on June 28, hosting Delmarva (Orioles).

<

Thanks Joe. Overall, unfortunately, this has not been a very impressive minor league season with no one really advancing up the prospect charts. Perhaps Brito who has hit as well in Akron as in Lake County but who really cares about another 2B who hits for a bit of power, walks a lot and doesn't steal bases.

I am copyng this paragraph from a story in Articles about the minimal success of the draft class of 2022

Joe Lampe's monthly BAs are .348, .181 and, in June, .103 with OPS of .908, .618, .404.
Nate Furman is hitting .177 in Lake County after his promotion and
22 year old Guy Lipscomb is hitting .217 in June...at Low A. I
know injuries are classic draft confounders so Campbell, DeLauter, DeLucia and Zibin being out is, likely, just bad luck.
But with Parker Messick STILL at low A and not dominating even the way Will Dion did last year with similar stuff and a much lower pedigree, the 2023 draft is soooo important...as well as the next month will be for some of these guys to determine their true prospect status which, right now, is more like suspect or organizational player than prospect.

A typically uninspiring collection of stats by our top 30 prospects for Sunday games

CLE MAJ #3 Bo Naylor, C 4 0 2 0 .245
CLE AAA #4 George Valera, OF 4 0 1 1 .200 BB (14), in AAA he's well below 200 but still probably our No. prospect
CLE AAA #5 Brayan Rocchio, SS 3 1 0 0 .281 2 BB (35), by default probably now our No. 1 prospect
CLE AA #8 Angel Martinez, SS 4 0 0 0 .223
CLE MAJ #10 Will Brennan, OF 4 0 1 1 .266
CLE MAJ #11 Tyler Freeman, 2B 3 1 2 0 .317 2B (11), BB (17), stat totals include his time in AAA
CLE MAJ #12 Gabriel Arias, SS 4 0 0 0 .191
CLE AA #14 Jose Tena, SS 3 0 1 2 .224 BB (28), in the 3rd month of his second season in AA he's been hitting pretty well
CLE HiA #15 Jake Fox, 2B 4 0 1 0 .201
CLE AA #16 Juan Brito, 2B 4 0 0 0 .290 considering the lack of competition perhaps now among our top 5 prospects
CLE AAA #20 Jhonkensy Noel, OF 5 0 1 2 .192
CLE AA #25 Petey Halpin, OF 4 0 0 0 .259

CLE AAA #17 Cody Morris, RHP 1.0 1 1 1 0 0 1.35 Not quite sure why he's in AAA, but then again there's no room on the roster for him

Counting Down the Top 30 Cleveland Guardians Prospects: 15-1
Part two of a breakdown of my top 30 prospects in the Guardians farm system

MATT SEESE
JUN 24, 2023

Let’s just get right into this, shall we? If you missed Part One on prospects 30-16, check that out here. And just a head’s up. This will not include Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, Will Brennan or Gabriel Arias as all either have graduated or are about to.

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15. Jacob Zibin | RHP

Height/Weight: 6'4''/218 lbs
Age: 18
Bat/Throw: R/R
Drafted: 2022, 10th round, 301st pick out of TNXL Academy (FL)
Signing Bonus: $1.2 million
Level: Arizona Complex League
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 21
FanGraphs Team Rank: 19
FanGraphs Future Value: 40+

Jacob Zibin was born in 2005…man, I feel old. The Canadian-born pitcher reclassified from this year’s draft class to 2022’s to the major delight of the Guardians. The Guards got him in the tenth round for second round money, a record amount of cash for the round, showing just how serious they were about netting Zibin, the youngest player in the entire draft.

Zibin sits in the low 90s and can touch 97-98 with arm-side action on his fastball, great feel and vertical drop on his changeup (low 80s), and also mixes in a slider as well. Zibin deploys the occasional quick pitch, and is apparently an expert on sleep. No, seriously.


Don’t knock it ‘til ya try it?

Zibin went through a slight uptick in velo last spring, so as he further develops under the wings of a tremendous pitching factory that is Cleveland, he may develop more which tends to be the trend. Zibin is easily my favorite non-Williams/Espino pitching prospect in the organization.

14. Parker Messick | LHP

Height/Weight: 6'0''/235 lbs
Age: 22
Bat/Throw: L/L
Drafted: 2022, 2nd round, 54th pick out of Florida State
Signing Bonus: $1.3 million
Level: A Lynchburg
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 17
FanGraphs Team Rank: 14
FanGraphs Future Value: 45


Parker Messick is thicc. With the height-to-weight distribution resembling that of a running back, the 235-pound lefty has been mowing down hitters since his college days in Tallahassee. Messick has pitched mostly well in his first season in the Guardians organization with Class-A Lynchburg.

Messick’s fastball sits in the low-90s and is very flat, and, like many others in this system, makes his name off his plus-plus changeup that has a future grade of 70 on FanGraphs. His ability to hide the ball within his lower delivery makes his changeup play off his slower breaking stuff and flat fastball well. Sheerly off projection-ability, I don’t see Messick rising too highly through rankings on the whole solely due to the fact that I don’t see him adding a ton of velocity, but I do see a quick ascension through the minors for him.

13. Angel Genao | SS

Height/Weight: 5'9''/150 lbs
Age: 19
Bat/Throw: S/R
Signed: 2021 out of Dominican Republic
Signing Bonus: $1.175 million
Level: A Lynchburg
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 10
FanGraphs Team Rank: 17
FanGraphs Future Value: 40+


Angel Genao just turned 19 in May and was part of the Dominican Republic’s LLWS team in 2017, and his first two seasons within the Guardians organization were mostly successful. Genao put up gaudy numbers in the Complex League upon moving over to the states, but upon promotion to Lynchburg (.422 baBIP was a bit of foreshadowing in Arizona), the then 18 year-old struggled.

However, Genao has begun to turn around those struggles early on in 2023, posting five multi-hit games so far. Right now, consistency is the issue, and there’s a key factor that can explain why. Genao has a longer swing, and it has created some rough timing in stretches, though I think this will improve a bit over time as he fills out. He’s very good at getting the barrel to the ball, and his glove will more than hold up at shortstop.

12. Justin Campbell | RHP

Height/Weight: 6'7''/219 lbs
Age: 22
Bat/Throw: R/R
Drafted: 2022, CB-A round, 37th overall out of Oklahoma State
Signing Bonus: $1.7 million
Level: Injured
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 9
FanGraphs Team Rank: 11
FanGraphs Future Value: 45

Unfortunately, the only thing keeping Justin Campbell out of the top 10 is that he just had ulnar nerve decompression surgery on his right elbow. He was not able to avoid the surgery as previously hoped, and the road to recovery is a long one, as is any pitching arm injury.

Campbell’s frame makes him among the most interesting prospects in the entire system for me as he stands at 6-foot-7, but just 219 pounds, which tells me his low to mid-90s fastball that already possesses some rise has a very good chance of seeing a future uptick in velocity as he fills out that lanky frame. His command is pretty solid with his three pitch mix of his fastball, slider, and plus changeup.

It’s going to feel like ages until he returns, but when he does, big things are potentially on the horizon here.

11. Joey Cantillo | LHP

Height/Weight: 6'4''/220 lbs
Age: 23
Bat/Throw: L/L
Drafted: 2017, 16th round, 468th pick (Padres) out of Kailua HS (Hawaii)
Signing Bonus: $302,500
Level: AAA Columbus
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 15
FanGraphs Team Rank: 25
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


No prospect on this list has an equal chance to stumble down this list as they do to skyrocket up it quite like Joey Cantillo. Admittedly, 11 might be a tad high for him, but his stuff has only gotten better since the day he got to Cleveland in the Mike Clevinger trade. A guy who once sat low 80s on his fastball with the ability to touch 92 has found himself sitting in the mid-90s while touching 97 at times thus far in Columbus in 2023.

Cantillo has one major, glaring weakness: command. He was dominant in Akron, running a K-rate north of 35-percent, but his walk rate sat comfortably over 14-percent, walking 14 batters in 24.1 innings there. He doesn’t give up hits. His fastball has rise and already graded highly prior to his velocity gain, and he boasts a positive curveball while his calling card is, of course, his changeup.

Cantillo possesses a vulcan grip on his change which, with his arm action, can almost give the ball unpredictable movement at times and has that 'Bugs Bunny' type of disappearing trait as it approaches the hitter.

Cantillo is running an ERA close to 5.00 right now in Columbus, solely due to his command. Despite opponents hitting just .207 against him in Triple-A, 17 walks in 23 innings will assuredly create a lot of traffic, thus leading to runs. Long term, at the bare minimum, he’s going to be an extremely effective reliever.

Now…the top 10.

10. Welbyn Francisca | SS/2B

Height/Weight: 5'9''/165 lbs
Age: 17
Bat/Throw: S/R
Signed: 2023 out of Dominican Republic
Signing Bonus: $1.375 million
Level: Dominican Summer League
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: --
FanGraphs Team Rank: 13
FanGraphs Future Value: 45


They really have a type, don’t they? In a long line of switch hitting middle infield international prospects in the history of Cleveland’s minor league system, Welbyn Francisca is the newest. Francisca was the face of the Guardians’ international signing class in 2023, and for good reason. Scouts raved about his bat control and footwork to get his barrel on everything in the zone which are traits similar to the likes of Jose Ramírez and Francisco Lindor.

Francisca projects to have a 70-grade hit tool, easily the highest of anyone on this list (for now), though there are concerns as to whether he’ll stick at shortstop or have to move over to second base long term due to arm strength.

Francisca is currently torching the Dominican Summer League and ranks as my second-highest prospect under 20 for the Guardians. Despite his success early on, a move to the states and up the system may still take time. Asking a 17-year-old to leave his home country is still asking a lot, so on a human level, it’s very understandable if they opt to take their time.

9. Jaison Chourio | OF

Height/Weight: 6'1''/162 lbs
Age: 18
Bat/Throw: S/R
Signed: 2022 out of Venezuela
Signing Bonus: $1.2 million
Level: Arizona Complex League
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 11
FanGraphs Team Rank: 16
FanGraphs Future Value: 40+


Oh look, it’s another international switch-hitter signing! In all seriousness, Jaison Chourio may be the best of the bunch. Physically, scouts believe Chourio’s frame is extremely projectable to adding a lot of strength and power to his swing that’s already incredibly advanced.

Chourio’s swing doesn’t appear to have a weakness thus far which adds up to what scouts say about it. That being said, he’s been vastly better from the left side facing righties than against lefties from the right side. He has great pitch recognition, and he’s able to get to pitches everywhere in the zone with good balance to create solid contact, and once the strength develops, that ball will begin to lift. One criticism I have is he hits way too many groundballs, but again, he’s 18, there’s a lot of pop to be added there and hopefully some lift to go along with it.

In the field, he boasts plus speed and a solid arm, and he has great instincts that should carry over to him being able to stay in center field long term.

8. Angel Martínez | 2B/SS

Height/Weight: 6'0''/185 lbs
Age: 21
Bat/Throw: S/R
Signed: 2018 out of Dominican Republic
Signing Bonus: $500,000
Level: AA Akron
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 7
FanGraphs Team Rank: 8
FanGraphs Future Value: 45


Coming off a great season between Lake County and Akron that saw Martínez develop a bit of a power stroke, hitting 13 home runs across 101 games, 2023 has not been as kind to the 21 year-old Dominican middle infielder.

Martínez has been lost at the plate pretty much the entire season and is riding one of his coldest stretches thus far moving towards the end of June. His strikeout rate has soared from 17.5% last year to 21.9% this year while his walk rate has dipped under 10-percent for the first time in his career.

So why is he this high? For starters, he’s 21, and as one of the youngest players in Double-A last year, he adjusted after some growing pains and performed very well, to the tune of a 120 wRC+. A major positive is he’s hitting fewer groundballs this year, something that I had thought would keep him from fully reaching his potential, and is pulling the ball at a career high rate so far. The negative is there’s been a lot of weak contact in the air and fewer line drives. This is clearly a swing tweak from within the organization that they’re working on with Martínez to grow his power into his swing, and I think over time, we will see that come to fruition.

7. George Valera | OF

Height/Weight: 6'0''/195 lbs
Age: 22
Bat/Throw: L/L
Signed: 2017 out of Dominican Republic
Signing Bonus: $1.3 million
Level: AAA Columbus
MLB Top 100 Rank: 37
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 2
FanGraphs Team Rank: 7
FanGraphs Future Value: 45


Admittedly, I am lower on Valera than most in the fanbase. Let me explain why.

George Valera has tremendous power, and his ability to pull the ball with power has been on display since day one. His swing is reminiscent of Robinson Cano, but he has major swing holes that I think will play a major role in him not reaching what many think his potential is.

Valera posted a contact rate under 70% and a 73% contact rate on pitches in the zone (which would have been an MLB low among qualifiers), both being incredibly low rates. As FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote, those marks tend to have an oil/water mix in becoming a big league player. Among players with both sub-70% contact rates and sub-80% zone contact rates, you have your successes like Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, and Adolis García — all guys who are vastly bigger than Valera that excel in drawing walks — but you have guys who fade out pretty or become all or nothing, glove first players who fight for playing time. Players like Luke Voit (64.0%, 76.5%), Keston Huira (62.3%, 71.2%), Chad Pinder (68.7%, 77.2%), Christopher Morel (63.4%, 68.9%), and Jo Adell (66.7%, 73.7%) are all players who suffer from the dreaded AAAA label, a player who crushes Triple-A but struggles in MLB stints.

This is all without mentioning Valera’s recent checkered past with injuries that has kept him from developing into a more rounded hitter.

I fear Valera could be a player who gets stuck in purgatory due to his bat, but his power is undeniable, and he excels in the field more than pretty much any other outfield prospect in the system. If his bat rounds into form, he has a chance to be a major five-tool guy for the Guardians, but I stand by my reservations.

6. Daniel Espino | RHP

Height/Weight: 6'2''/215 lbs
Age: 22
Bat/Throw: R/R
Drafted: 2019, 1st round, 24th pick out of Georgia Premier Academy
Signing Bonus: $2.5 million
Level: Injured
MLB Top 100 Rank: 56
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 4
FanGraphs Team Rank: 1
FanGraphs Future Value: 60

How the mighty have fallen.

I hate having to even write this about Espino, but things are not looking good right now. Once viewed as the best right handed pitching prospect in baseball, two major shoulder injuries to his pitching arm have shut down Daniel Espino for the second straight season.

Espino had anterior capsule surgery to repair his right shoulder after a setback from a shoulder injury last year. He will have pitched 18.1 innings in two years by the time he hopefully makes his comeback in mid-2024.

As good as Gavin Williams is who you’ll read about shortly, Espino was always better when healthy. Espino earned the rare 80-grade on his fastball, touching 102 and sitting at 98+ consistently, and his slider was as nasty as any prospect’s in recent memory. His curveball is a strike-stealer as he’d shown, and his command was steadily improving up until his injury.

We can only hope Espino is able to fully recover because if he can, there’s an ace waiting to be unlocked.

5. Chase DeLauter | OF

Height/Weight: 6'4''/230 lbs
Age: 21
Bat/Throw: L/L
Drafted: 2022, 1st round, 16th pick out of James Madison
Signing Bonus: $3.75 million
Level: Arizona Complex League
MLB Top 100 Rank: 90
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 6
FanGraphs Team Rank: 1
FanGraphs Future Value: 60

Rounding out the fearful injury bug trio is Cleveland’s 2023 first round selection, Chase DeLauter. DeLauter was thought of by many to be the most talented player in the 2022 Draft, and had it not been for a broken foot, he could have gone 1:1, which is why the Guardians pulled out all the stops to get him to sign, dishing out their highest ever first round bonus of 3.75 million dollars.

Enter 2023, and DeLauter re-injures his foot in January, needing surgery again, missing four months.

Fast forward to June, and DeLauter is finally activated to play in Arizona. Let the fun begin.

I think DeLauter is the Guardians best outfield prospect, just edging out Valera. The Cape Cod League performance in 2021 is where DeLauter gained notoriety as a premier prospect, and DeLauter slashed .402/.520/.715/1.235 across 66 games in three seasons at James Madison against small school pitching. Like a typical lefty, he feasts on pitches low along the inner third, but it’s his overall contact ability and ability to drive pitches along the outer third to the opposite field that intrigue me the most. DeLauter is also a very good athlete with a great feel in the outfield and a cannon for an arm. Your prototypical build to a corner outfielder.

Getting him back and healthy are paramount right now. It may take time for the results to shape as not playing baseball for as long as he hasn’t will need rust to be shaken off, but I expect DeLauter to finish the season in either Lynchburg or Lake County.

4. Brayan Rocchio | SS

Height/Weight: 5'10''/175 lbs
Age: 22
Bat/Throw: S/R
Signed: 2017 out of Venezuela
Signing Bonus: $125,000
Level: AAA Columbus
MLB Top 100 Rank: 57
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 5
FanGraphs Team Rank: 3
FanGraphs Future Value: 50


From a diminutive 16 year-old signed for just 125,000 dollars out of Venezuela, Brayan Rocchio has formed into a tremendous ballplayer. Despite the down turn in home run power this year, Rocchio is still smoking the ball gap to gap, and his walk rate has eclipsed the 10-percent mark for the first time in his career.

Rocchio is currently mired in a pretty dreadful slump, all happening after his demotion from the big league roster on June 2nd. Rocchio is just 7 for his last 40 and is hitting .190 overall in June with a .597 OPS.

This shouldn’t take away from him, however. Rocchio has tremendous contact ability from both sides of the plate, boasting a 60-grade hit tool, and he is more than competent fielding his position at shortstop, although he has definitely taken a step back there, thus not making my top three.

I think Rocchio is Cleveland’s biggest trade piece during this season as I can’t see his value getting any higher, but I also think he could be the future at shortstop every day.

3. Juan Brito | 2B/3B

Height/Weight: 5'11''/202 lbs
Age: 21
Bat/Throw: S/R
Signed: 2021 out of Dominican Republic by Colorado
Signing Bonus: $60,000
Level: AA Akron
MLB Top 100 Rank: --
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 14
FanGraphs Team Rank: 12
FanGraphs Future Value: 45


Juan Brito may not be in any top 100 rankings from a major outlet as of now, but give it a couple months, and that will change.

Brito is the best pure swinger of a bat among all of Cleveland’s infield prospects, and that’s saying a lot. Acquired for Nolan Jones despite not having a real need for another middle infielder amongst the abyss that encompasses the other 15 good ones they have, Cleveland is very high on Brito, and it’s very apparent why.

Brito has filled out what was once a 160 pound frame into 202 pounds and was given a 60-grade hit tool projection, but just a 40-grade for in-game, but that’s something I think will change due to his swing. Brito has a natural lift in his swing and doesn’t really chase (just 22% chase rate per FanGraphs last year) while making good contact. He feasts on fastballs and is able to get to them anywhere in the zone, largely due to just how quick his hands are getting to the ball. He’s a naturally gifted hitter who has only gotten better in Akron.

It’s sketchy putting a player who projects to be a second baseman this high as if the offensive production falters, so does his value, but I am very bullish on Brito and think that his offensive numbers will remain steady until he’s called up.

2. Bo Naylor | C

Height/Weight: 6'0''/205 lbs
Age: 23
Bat/Throw: L/R
Drafted: 2018, 1st round, 29th pick out of St. Joan of Arc (Mississauga, ON)
Signing Bonus: $2,578,137
Level: MLB
MLB Top 100 Rank: 44
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 3
FanGraphs Team Rank: 2
FanGraphs Future Value: 50


After what felt like a decades long wait, it’s finally Bo Naylor time in Cleveland. The 23 year-old catcher took over primary catching duties for the Guardians last week following the DFA and eventual release of Mike Zunino, and he picked up his first major league hit in a big spot against Oakland this week.

Naylor is a naturally gifted, bat-first athlete who happens to be a catcher. Naylor mashed 21 homers across Akron and Columbus in 2022 to go with 20 steals and actually plays above his 50-grade speed per FanGraphs.

Naylor did a lot of work to fix his bat path prior to last season, and he reaped the benefits to those changes immediately. Naylor has an elite eye at the plate, walking at an 18.1% clip in Columbus prior to his promotion this season, and as he gains a feel for MLB pitching, I also believe his suboptimal skills defensively behind the plate will also improve.

There’s a reason bat-first catchers are touted so highly, and it’s because learning how to actually catch a game is something that can be taught, and Bo is learning and developing that side to his game. If Bo can figure out how to be a consistent solid contact bat on pitches within the zone, the sky is the limit for him.

1. Gavin Williams | RHP

Height/Weight: 6'6''/250 lbs
Age: 23
Bat/Throw: R/R
Drafted: 2018, 1st round, 23rd pick out of East Carolina University
Signing Bonus: $2.25 million
Level: MLB
MLB Top 100 Rank: 16
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 1
FanGraphs Team Rank: 6 (behind Allen and Bibee)
FanGraphs Future Value: 45+


Gavin Williams debuts as my top prospect within the Cleveland Guardians system, though who knows if he’ll be here next time we do this (graduation). Williams works a lightning fastball that sits between 96-97 consistently with the ability to reach 100. His slider has developed into an advanced weapon while his curve is a big swing-and-miss pitch late in counts.

Williams projects to be a mid-rotation type of arm, but when you watch him pitch, you see there might just be something extra there. His fastball blisters the top of the strike zone, blowing past hitters’ bats consistently, and he was dominant in Columbus over the course of his first two and a half months.

His first start in Cleveland was a mixed bag of all things nerves and jitters. Williams came out white hot, but when his location started to falter, he slowed his fastball way down (low-mid 90s) and it started getting tagged a bit, leading to a big four-run inning for the A’s. Williams’ location was an issue all start, but he settled back in and didn’t give up a hit the rest of the way, and finished with a really solid outing.

I think Gavin can become a #2 starter, potentially a top arm of the staff. I think his stuff is more than that good, and it simply comes down to location and getting whiffs which I think will come.

Counting Down the Top 30 Cleveland Guardians Prospects: 30-16
Part one of a breakdown of my top 30 prospects in the Guardians farm system

MATT SEESE
JUN 15, 2023

As a Guardians fan, we’re more in touch with what’s coming up through the ranks than most fanbases are or have to be. Between lack of spending and the abundance of pitching development, all eyes have been on Columbus, Akron, Lynchburg, Lake County and beyond from much of the fanbase over the past four-plus years.

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From the 17 rookie debuts last season to another six so far this year, it’s a full blown youth movement in Cleveland, highlighted by the overwhelming depth the Guardians organization has at the pitching position. With players such as Xzavion Curry, Gabriel Arias, and Will Brennan graduating the prospect ladder, there’s been a sizable shakeup amongst everyone’s rankings as the Arizona Complex and Dominican Summer Leagues get underway.

For each slot, I will give a statistical breakdown of each player at each level they played (if applicable) and some analysis and reasoning behind their placement. I will reference FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline quite a bit for rankings, notably FanGraphs’ ‘Future Value’ tool that projects how a prospect will fare at the MLB level.

For those not familiar, FanGraph’s ‘future value’ is done on the typical 20-80 scale where 20 is a career minor leaguer, 30 is a player who might occasionally crack an MLB roster, 40 is a role player or “backend” starter, 45 is a platoon type bat or a back of rotation arm, 50 and 55 usually grade as a mid-rotation arm for pitchers while 50 for a position player grades out as an average everyday player, and 55 is an above average player.

60 is where we get to the more rare, Jordan Walker/Jackson Holliday types that are projected to be all-star types. 65 is your Corbin Carroll/Gunnar Henderson caliber prospects who are projected to be fringe top 15-20 players (Carroll is exceeding that). At 70 is where the ultra rare prospects like Adley Rutschman are, your top 10 projected future MLB players, and lastly, an 80-grade is the highest and rarest grade given to a prospect where they’re expected to become one of the five best players in the league. Wander Franco is the most recent 80-grade prospect.

This will be a combination of projection based on build and tools, but also results, though I understand those don’t always equate to being a good big leaguer, especially with hitters.

Also, all player pictures will be generated through Substack’s picture generator based on the player’s name so I don’t get in trouble for using anyone’s photo and because they’re kinda goofy.

With that being said, here are my top prospects, 30 through 16, within the Guardians system as of June, 2023.

30. Bryan Lavastida | C

Height/Weight: 6'0''/200
Age: 24
Bat/Throw: R/R
Drafted: 2018, 15th round, 463rd overall out of Hillsborough CC
Signing Bonus: $175,000
Level: AA Akron
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: --
FanGraphs Team Rank: 29
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


The guy who got DFA’d last season is on the top 30 prospects list? You better believe it. Combine the value of a catching prospect who could potentially be a big league backup with an overall very solid bounceback season Lavastida has had thus far, he’s earned his way back here.

Defensively, the once shortstop-turned-catcher has made big strides behind the plate, especially as a receiver, which has really helped round his game as a prospect.

Lavastida’s walk rate has worked its way way back up over 10% and wRC+ back well over 100, both where he had been prior to 2022 where he struggled mightily at the plate and dealt with a hamstring injury. Will he work his way back to being a mid-teens ranked prospect? That much is unlikely, but Lavastida has grinded his way out of the gutter in AA and deserves to be on the list. When…if? Bo Naylor gets promoted, expect Lavastida to take over in Columbus.

29. Yerlin Luis | OF

Height/Weight: 5'10''/160
Age: 17
Bat/Throw: S/R
Signed: 2023 out of Dominican Republic
Signing Bonus: $850,000
Level: Dominican Summer League
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: --
FanGraphs Team Rank: 30
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


Apparently a well known soccer player, Yerlin Luis was Cleveland’s big money grab out of the international signing pool this year, and his potential is apparent. Scouts rave about his approach that’s already beyond his years and has “advanced bat speed for his age”, per MLB Pipeline. He has a chance to develop power as he fills out his frame, and his potentially plus glove could make him very valuable as a center fielder. I assume it will take time for us to see the results play out from Luis’s process and progression, but he has a great feel for making contact, and with how well he finds the barrel, the power may come along at some point as well. I feel like once things click for him, the sky’s the limit.

28. Trenton Denholm | RHP

Height/Weight: 5'11''/180
Age: 23
Bat/Throw: R/R
Drafted: 2021, 14th round, 426th pick out of UC Irvine
Signing Bonus: $150,000
Level: A+ Lake County
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: --
FanGraphs Team Rank: 27
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


Denholm fell in the draft due to poor velocity, but upon arrival, his velo was back up towards the low to mid 90s. His first season in the Guardians organization in Lynchburg was a mixed bag, but more positive than negative. Denholm was allowing over 10 hits per nine innings, but, as FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen pointed out, Denholm added a cutter that sits in the high 80s to go with his fastball, a faster curveball, and his patented changeup. That’s a pretty complete repertoire for a 23 year-old. His new changes have proven to be a positive thus far in 2023 as Denholm’s WHIP is down considerably while his walk rate continues to remain low.

26. Hunter Gaddis | RHP

Height/Weight: 6'6''/212
Age: 25
Bat/Throw: R/R
Draft: 2019, 5th round, 160th pick out of Georgia State
Signing Bonus: $415,000
Level: AAA Columbus
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 26
FanGraphs Team Rank: 37
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


A lot of what lands Gaddis on this list instead of, say, Peyton Battenfield, is a clearer path forward for him on this roster: the bullpen. As a starter at the MLB level this season, Gaddis was very good the first time through the order, but not so much beyond that. Opponents the first time through against Gaddis had an OPS of just .585 compared to .865 the second time through and a staggering 1.158 on the third time around.

Out of the ‘pen, Gaddis’s fastball plays up in a situation where he’s more able to maximize and consolidate his arsenal that features a plus changeup and a slider. Prior to being sent down, Gaddis threw a scoreless inning out of the bullpen on June 2nd against the Twins where his fastball sat at 94.7 mph, about +1.6 mph above his season’s average. Is it a clear path forward? No, but there is definitely a cracked door open there.

26. Doug Nikhazy | LHP

Height/Weight: 6'0''/210 lbs
Age: 23
Bat/Throw: L/L
Draft: 2021, 2nd round, 58th pick out of Ole Miss
Signing Bonus: $1.2 million
Level: AA Akron
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 29
FanGraphs Team Rank: 42
FanGraphs Future Value: 35+


Nikhazy was one of my favorite picks from the 2021 Draft, but upon his arrival in Double-A, he struggled. Nikhazy debuted at 31 on FanGraph’s rankings before the start of last season, but due to his struggles to find the strike zone, his early results in Akron were poor, and Nikhazy stumbled all the way to 42 in the rankings. However, I’m not as quick to drop him. Doug Nasty has some, well, nasty stuff, and I think him working on some new pitches and tweaks in his arsenal likely led to his struggles as well.

He’s not the biggest pitcher, but his high arm angle creates tons of deception, something we’ve seen from Cleveland pitchers recently (Sticks, Karinchak, Bibee), and he gets very good extension which plays up his low 90’s fastball and allows his plus-plus curve and newly developed sweeper-type pitch (no idea what it’s classified as, but it has way more horizontal movement than it used to) to play off it. However, at the end of the day, he has to throw strikes.

In 2023, he hasn’t been hit much, but his walk rate continues to sit over 18%, and that’s allowing teams to capitalize and score. In fact, only once has Nikhazy managed to not walk multiple batters in an outing this season. That being said, he’s here because I believe he can be effective despite his walk rate and will find a way to cut down on the free passes and be more assertive in the zone.

25. Dayan Frias | 3B/mIF

Height/Weight: 5'10''/165 lbs
Age: 21
Bat/Throw: S/R
Signed: 2018 out of Colombia
Signing Bonus: $80,000
Level: A+ Lake County
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: --
FanGraphs Team Rank: 33
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


Just a bit of forewarning, Dayan Frias will be the first of seven switch-hitters on this list. Frias struggled at the plate in 2022 after a terrific performance in the Arizona Complex League, losing almost 200 points off his slug. However, between a great winter in the Colombian Winter League where Frias posted a .489 OBP on his championship winning club and getting selected to participate on Colombia’s World Baseball Classic team, all positive momentum was on Frias’ side, and he’s ridden it to a great start in Lake County.

Frias continues to fill out his frame, and his strikeout rate is down 10.4% as he’s now walking more than he strikes out. There’s clearly improvement in his approach to go along with him already being a good fielder, now it’s just about seeing if he can tap into some power against stronger pitching and fully unlock the 20 year-old’s potential. Frias has a chance to be a rapid riser if so.

24. Milan Tolentino | SS

Height/Weight: 6'1''/185 lbs
Age: 21
Bat/Throw: L/R
Draft: 2020, 4th round, 124th pick out of Santa Margarita Catholic HS (CA)
Signing Bonus: $800,000
Level: A+ Lake County
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 22
FanGraphs Team Rank: 32
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


Milan Tolentino is one of the better gloves in the Guardians farm system. Despite having a great 2022 in Lynchburg, Tolentino struggled upon promotion to Lake County at the plate, and that’s carried over into 2023. His swing and miss tendency creates a ton of problems for a guy who doesn’t really possess much power. Usually teams are okay exchanging swing and miss for pop, but Tolentino is missing the pop to go with his 30.4% strikeout rate. His glove will get him on a big league roster one day, but with the logjam of middle infielders above him and his ever continuing struggles hitting, Tolentino continues to fall down prospect charts.

23. Jack Leftwich | RHP

Height/Weight: 6'4''/220 lbs
Age: 24
Bat/Throw: R/R
Draft: 2021, 7th round, 216th pick out of University of Florida
Signing Bonus: $167,000
Level: AA Akron
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 30
FanGraphs Team Rank: 34
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


Coming into 2023, Leftwich was my top pitching prospect to watch in Akron not named Gavin Williams. Leftwich had been good in both Lynchburg and Lake County. As per usual, Leftwich has seen an uptick in velocity, most notably to his slider, in his brief time within the Guardians organization, touching 97 with his fastball and sitting low 80s with his slider. Leftwich’s slider is good, with potential to border on very good to great as it plays off his fastball. His changeup is in development as he transitions fully into a starter.

He’s gotten hit hard early on in Akron, but his most recent start saw him go six scoreless innings with four strikeouts. If he can continue his recent success and find a way to miss bats, he can turn around a sluggish start.

22. Will Dion | LHP

Height/Weight: 5'10''/180 lbs
Age: 23
Bat/Throw: L/L
Draft: 2021, 9th round, 276th pick out of McNeese State
Signing Bonus: $125,000
Level: AA Akron
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: --
FanGraphs Team Rank: 36
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


“The Kershaw Guy” has managed to pay homage to the greatest left handed pitcher in baseball history in more than just the wind-up. Will Dion has also decided to try and match Kershaw’s peak stats as he rises through the ranks of the Guardians farm system.

It’s not very often you see someone with diminutive fastball velocity like Dion’s sit in the 30-percent range consistently with his strikeout rate, but Dion has at every stop thus far. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball at all, but his motion along with some very good extension creates extra rising life to his heater that usually sits high 80s and kisses the 90s on occasion. His command has been good and continues to get better, and Dion’s slider and curveball have mowed down minor league hitters throughout his three seasons thus far.

Dion’s curveball coincidentally is his calling card as well, but his changeup development has also come along nicely throughout the past three years, giving him a very polished four pitch mix. Dion has back-of-the-rotation potential, especially if Cleveland can tap into more velo without losing any control. After an incredibly unlucky first start in Akron, Dion turned it around with a very good outing. Expect more of that this season from him.

21. Joe Lampe | OF

Height/Weight: 6'1''/185 lbs
Age: 22
Bat/Throw: L/R
Draft: 2022, 3rd round, 92nd pick out of Arizona State
Signing Bonus: $800,000
Level: A+
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 28
FanGraphs Team Rank: 39
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


Thus far, Lampe has been everything I expected him to be. Known primarily for his speed, Lampe’s bat has surprised me a bit this year. He does chase a lot, but he’s put together solid at-bats through over 200 plate appearances, continuing to work walks and get his speed on the base paths.

That being said, his bat is very raw still. The overall contact isn’t always great, but it’s improving, though I would love to see more line drives and less grounders. Lampe’s speed is truly a separator (only Nate Furman grades out with equal speed to Lampe’s 70-grade per FanGraphs) and can make up for some of the weak groundball contact, but more gap to gap development is something I’ll be keeping my eye on. Lampe is 22, so his age plus production in Lake County thus far make me think we could see him in Akron before the end of the summer.

20. Jhonkensy Noel | 1B/cOF

Height/Weight: 6'3''/250 lbs
Age: 21
Bat/Throw: R/R
Signed: 2017 out of Dominican Republic
Signing Bonus: $100,000
Level: AAA Columbus
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 16
FanGraphs Team Rank: 15
FanGraphs Future Value: 40+


I can’t quit Jhonkensy Noel. Despite seeing similar all power, no walk types fail recently on this team, Noel strikes something different within me. For starters, Noel is absurdly strong, and watching him hit homers is what this great sport was made for (he grades at 80 power on FanGraphs, the highest graded tool of anyone within the system). Secondly, he has the coolest name in all of baseball. Vibe check passed. Lastly, and more analytically, I see a path forward where Jhonk can make a difference on the big league roster one day.

Noel has pummeled left handed pitching this season in 51 plate appearances, putting up an OPS of .879 and hitting four of his ten home runs against southpaws despite 105 fewer PA’s against lefties than righties. Am I grasping at straws here? Probably. Is time running out on Noel to prove he can consistently produce and overcome his historically problematic flaws? Probably.

19. Petey Halpin | CF

Height/Weight: 6'0''/185 lbs
Age: 21
Bat/Throw: L/R
Draft: 2020, 3rd round, 95th pick out of St. Francis High School (CA)
Signing Bonus: $1.525 million
Level: AA Akron
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 13
FanGraphs Team Rank: 28
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


There seem to be differing viewpoints on Halpin’s projection as a big leaguer. MLB Pipeline seem to think that Halpin can develop into a mid-teen to 20 home run hitter. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs sees Halpin rounding out to be a fourth outfielder type with elite speed. As is usually the case, the truth is somewhere in the middle which is where I lay, though I tend to lean more towards agreeing with Longenhagen about Halpin’s outlook.

15-20 home runs is a very aggressive projection for a guy who has never slugged above .425 in the minors, but I don’t doubt that gap to gap power can develop considering how solid of contact he’s able to consistently make. Halpin’s historically reverse splits in the minors have wavered this season, but he’s crushing right handed pitching in a way he hasn’t yet in the minors. That being said, I graded Will Brennan, who is slightly slower but is a better fielder with a better arm who has more pop, to be a fringe starting outfielder caliber prospect, and I see Halpin as having a fairly lower ceiling than Brennan.

18. Tim Herrin | LHP

Height/Weight: 6'6''/230 lbs
Age: 26
Bat/Throw: L/L
Draft: 2018, 29th round, 883rd pick out of Indiana
Signing Bonus: $100,000
Level: AAA Columbus
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 22
FanGraphs Team Rank: 26
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


There’s a lot to unpack with the oldest player on this list (by a matter of months). Herrin’s delivery is loud, his fastball velo went way up last season, and he played a 2018 Josh Hader-type role for Akron and Columbus in 2022, going multiple innings in relief, dominating lefties, and fooling righties. Herrin is a two pitch pitcher and induces a ton of weak contact with his plus slider and has only seen a groundball rate under 50% once as a minor leaguer. His fastball sits in the upper 90s and can touch 99, a huge part in why he’s on this list.

Things have been rocky for the reliever at the big league level in 2023, though Herrin was also prematurely thrust into a role due to injuries. Herrin has exhibited both the good and bad in Columbus and Cleveland this season, showing how walks lead to big innings against him (5/9 against Louisville, 6/3 against Iowa) but also how dominant he can be in long stretches, such as his nine inning scoreless streak in May and only allowing runs in just one of his 10 outings that month.

Herrin has a real future in this bullpen, and if he can clean up his walks to where they don’t compound in outings, good things are on the horizon for him.

17. Cody Morris | RHP

Height/Weight: 6'5''/225 lbs
Age: 26
Bat/Throw: R/R
Draft: 2018, 7th round, 223rd pick out of South Carolina
Signing Bonus: $185,600
Level: MLB Cleveland
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 12
FanGraphs Team Rank: 18
FanGraphs Future Value: 40+


Morris showed a major flash of potential at the end of last season with the major league club, posting a 2.28 ERA in over 23 innings of work. After dealing with an injury, Morris finally made his return this week, coming out of the bullpen.

Perhaps it’s best for Morris moving forward to be a bullpen arm. Firstly, because there’s just no spot for him in the rotation right now, but also, Morris has an extensive injury history, so him being able to work at his peak in limited innings may give him the longevity and availability this team needs. Morris is the plus version of Hunter Gaddis. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90s with an ability to touch 97-98, and his changeup is easily his best pitch, using it to finish off both lefties and righties. Morris’ cutter development has helped him generate soft contact.

The big thing to keep an eye on with Morris short term out of the ‘pen is whether or not he can find that strikeout pitch more consistently than last season when he was mostly a starter. Long term, he projects as a starter, I just wonder if it will be in Cleveland.

16. Wuilfredo Antunez | OF

Height/Weight: 6'0''/170 lbs
Age: 21
Bat/Throw: L/R
Signed: 2019 out of Venezuela
Signing Bonus: $10,000
Level: A Lynchburg
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: 23
FanGraphs Team Rank: 24
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


Signed for a mere $10,000 in 2019, Wuilfredo Antunez has been surpassing expectations at every step. Antunez had his 2022 shortened due to a leg injury, but he’s rebounded very nicely thus far in 2023. Scouts love his short, twitchy left-handed swing that projects to add power, though questions surround how much strength he can add physically.

His plus speed has netted him seven steals in ten attempts this season in Lynchburg. Antunez hits the ball hard and boasts a good eye to go along with his aggressiveness, walking at a 16% clip thus far in his career to just a 19.4% strikeout rate. Can he stick in center field defensively? That will be the preeminent question throughout his ascension through the system and his ranking will likely hinge on exactly that over time.

Interesting uptodate list with Chourio and Francisco in the top 10.
Bibee and Allen and Freeman and Arias have graduated.
Williams and Naylor top his list and will graduate too.
Surprised to find Brito above Rocchio: could very well be the best hitter they have. But limited to 2nd base.
Valera in 7th is lower than most lists but I don't think he's wrong
Sorry to see what actually happened to Campbell, 2022 draft may be a near total bust
Getting down to the last 10 there's not much chance those guys will break through, but anything is possible [see: Steven Kwan]

Cantillo is picked for the Futures Game . He would be somewhere in my Top 10, could be the best pitcher we have left in the minors setting aside those on the long time injured lists

Dayan Frias | 3B/mIF

Height/Weight: 5'10''/165 lbs
Age: 21
Bat/Throw: S/R
Signed: 2018 out of Colombia
Signing Bonus: $80,000
Level: A+ Lake County
MLB Pipeline Team Rank: --
FanGraphs Team Rank: 33
FanGraphs Future Value: 40


Just a bit of forewarning, Dayan Frias will be the first of seven switch-hitters on this list. Frias struggled at the plate in 2022 after a terrific performance in the Arizona Complex League, losing almost 200 points off his slug. However, between a great winter in the Colombian Winter League where Frias posted a .489 OBP on his championship winning club and getting selected to participate on Colombia’s World Baseball Classic team, all positive momentum was on Frias’ side, and he’s ridden it to a great start in Lake County.

Frias continues to fill out his frame, and his strikeout rate is down 10.4% as he’s now walking more than he strikes out. There’s clearly improvement in his approach to go along with him already being a good fielder, now it’s just about seeing if he can tap into some power against stronger pitching and fully unlock the 20 year-old’s potential. Frias has a chance to be a rapid riser if so.

<

I like it. The report never mentioned that Frias made the Caribbean Series all star team.

Frias also held his own during the World Baseball Classic.

Lot of baseball for Frias in 2022-2023.

Almost a year and a half with no time off.

2022 minor league Lynchburg in the summer,
2022 -2023 Columbian Winter League in the winter, 2023 Caribbean Series during the winter,
2023 World Baseball Classic in the spring,
2023 Spring Training,
2023 in Lake County.

<

in monday's games our two DR teams their games by a combined score of 20-2 while the AZ rookie team lost 11-6.

a 18 year old 3B yanki Baptiste hit his 3 homer and brought his RBI total to 12 in 31 at bats
17 year old 6-3 OF Jose Pirela now has 14 rbi 2 homers and 10 walks in 51 total plate appearances
Another OF the familiarly names Luis Aparicio with 2 hits

today they both won by a combined 17-6. Overall the two teams are 1519 but that's not bad since most clubs only have 1 team's worth of talent
2 hits again for Aparicio today and 2 walks rose avg to 350 andOPS to 923
Highly rated Francisca with his 3rd homer today and a single batting 381 OPS 1164

mid season break for the full season teams yesterday and today. the 1/2 records:

Columbus 33-41
Akron 35-34
Lake County 31-34
Lynchburg 31-34

Overall: 130-143. This could be the first losing season for our farm system in many years. Columbus has been drained of pitching by injuries and promotions.
All the injuries from the 2022 draft class and lack of progress by some top prospects have kept the rest of the teams at mediocrity.

re class of 2023, I see Messick is at least on the Lake County roster.
DeLauter must be ready to join a full season team after some rehab games in Arizona.
But Campbell is out for at least the rest of this season.
And everyone else is a singles hitter.

BA prospect report for a rare day features a Guardian, but one in the majors

Gavin Williams, RHP, Gaurdians : Williams, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, was at his best in his second MLB start on Tuesday. The 2021 first-round pick from East Carolina struck out six, walked one and allowed one hit over seven scoreless innings against the Royals. Williams' plus-plus fastball induced eight swings and misses on the day, and he got two whiffs with his slider.

as are most of the rest since A AA and AAA had the day off

LE MAJ #3 Bo Naylor, C 4 0 0 0 0.241
CLE R #9 Chase DeLauter, OF 3 1 1 0 0.308 2 BB (7),
CLE MAJ #10 Will Brennan, OF 4 0 3 2 0.276 2B (13),

CLE MAJ #1 Gavin Williams, RHP 7.0 1 0 0 1 6 2.47

Perhaps Magnus Ellerts, an 11th round pick in 2022, is worth following

a 6-5 RHP reliever in 25 2/3 IP only 4 walks 39 strikeouts 19 hits so a 0.90 WHIP only 1 homerun allowed

I hadn't noticed that Hunter Gaddis ERA at Columbus had climbed to 7.33. 12.91 in 7 2/3 innings in June. He's only worked 27 innings for the Clippers. A couple good starts could bring it down to something at least reasonable. He starts tonight as the 2nd half opens,

Tanner Burns was scheduled to open the 2nd half for Akron but the game was postponed.
after missing part of 2022 he;s now accumulated a full year's work in AA with moderate success 3.50 ERA 1.30 WHIP a whopping 21 homers and a 5-10 record
a 1.5 rounder in 2020 whose prospect status has made no progress in his 3 years.

Parker Messick's long-awaited Lake County debut is tonight. BA projected him to open the season in High A.
His stats looked good at Lynchburg WHIP 1.09 IP/ K/BB 57/61/14 only 1 homerun
There's obviously something they didn't like.

Lynchburg never ever announces scheduled staring pitcher at least not at MILB.com
The best of an indifferent lot now that Messick has gone is Austin Peterson 6-6 RH 9th round in 2022 3.59 ERA 1.52 WHIP

Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro
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7h
Oh my Oscar!

#Guardians OF Oscar Gonzalez collected 3 XBH (3-4 2R 2(2B) HR 2RBI) Thursday night for Columbus in their 6-2 win over Toledo including a 409 foot HR that came off the bat at 105.6 mph.

Last 3 games:

11-14 7R 3(2B) 1(3B) 2HR 6RBI 1BB 1SB .786 AVG